The Russian Origins of the First World War

Discussions on all aspects of the First World War not covered in the other sections. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
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ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#181

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 09:03

Latze wrote:
Again, do you have any source for your wild claim? The reason for the late DoW given in the AH official history (vol. 1, 2nd. ed., p. 156) is much more convincing: delay as much as possible any Russian interference in Austrian mobilization and deployment in Galicia due to excessive fear of Russian cavalry raids. Why should I trust your assessment and not the one from a proper military authority like the authors of the OH?
The AH official history is contradicted by the letter from Franz Jozef on 1 august,where he is saying that AH would intervene against Russia in an undefined distant future,and it would also depend on what would do the Germans .Unless he was gaga and telling nonsense,we must accept what he said .Besides, we must also accept that what he said was not his personal opinion,but the opinion of the AH establishment (war and peace factions),unless there are proofs that FJ was practising a secret parallel foreign policy,of which Berchtold knew nothing .

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#182

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 09:09

Latze wrote:
aiwac wrote:Latze,

I'm not sure I would rely exclusively on Showalter. He's a fine historian, but he tends to be far too lenient on Germany and far too willing to emphasize negative attitudes of other powers. That doesn't mean he's wrong, just that reading him make me think he's...selective in emphasis on evidence. Are there other, more balanced, works which argue that Russia was seriously thinking of dissolving AH at some point in the same manner they wanted to dissolve the Ottoman Empire if the opportunity should arise?
aiwac,

Showalter does nowhere claim that that Russia actively wanted to dissolve Austria-Hungary. But he cites enough correspondence to show that Russia did not fear a break-up of Austria-Hungary either. The were discussing annexation of Galicia in that case and not the formation of an independent Poland, etc. ... as ljadw has claimed. For me that is quite enough until he shows something substential to support his claim.



regards
Latze
And,why were they not discussing the formation of an independant Poland?And why were they not declaring war on AH ?

Besides, the discussion about the annexation of Galicia does not prove that Russia did not fear a break-up of AH:the discussion about Galicia was done AFTER the AH DOW and from the assumptions that Russia would win and that this would result in the end of AH .A Russian victory would result in the end of AH,and there was nothing Russia could do about this .

A AH victory also would result in the end of AH and there was nothing Vienna could do about it .


ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#183

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 09:27

About Jagow:the fact that he was a former captain is irrelevant : he was foreign secretary and it was not the business of the AA to give an assessment on the Russian military capabilities;they were also not competent for this .

Would Kerry give his opinion about the Russian military capacity in 2017 ? Would the JCoS give an assessment about the political situation in Syria? Would the AG give his POV about the economic situation of the US ?

I will later reply about the comments on my post 16 .

Sid Guttridge
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#184

Post by Sid Guttridge » 26 Aug 2014, 11:11

Hi ljadw,

You miss the point about German fears of Russia in 1914.

Firstly, they were long term strategic. Russia had announced a major expansion of its army over the next few years. This was a major incentive for Germany to entertain the possibilities of an earlier rather than later war.

Secondly they were operational - the risk of a Russian invasion. Moltke was not immediately worried about this because he thought German war plans took this into account because (1) they underestimated the speed with which Russia could mobilise an invasion force for East Prussia and (2) because he intended to knock France out of the war rapidly and switch his victorious armies to face the belated Russian mobilization they anticipated. You cannot reasonably use Moltke's fatal complacency regarding Russia as evidence that Russia was not a potential threat to Germany.

So what if someone was a civilian? Most people who fight modrern wars are civilians at their outbreak and there is no inherent reason why an intelligent civil observer shouldn't come to rational conclusions. You should address the Jagow's argument, not the man.

Finally, you persistently overlook Russian mobilization dates in your replies, even though this was put to you earlier. In writing such things as "Russian reactian ? no ultimatum, no DOW" you are obscuring what Russia's reaction was. Russia's mobilization was not some unhappy coincidence. It was a deliberate reaction to Austro-Hungarian activity and was a recognized public signal that a declaration of war might follow. Indeed, the Germans' view of their own mobilization was that once started it could not be reversed for fear of revealing plans to the enemy and war almost inevitably had to follow. Russian mobilization was a signal well understood by the Germans and Austro-Hungarians.

Cheers,

Sid.

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#185

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 11:53

ljadw wrote:About Jagow:the fact that he was a former captain is irrelevant : he was foreign secretary and it was not the business of the AA to give an assessment on the Russian military capabilities;they were also not competent for this .

Would Kerry give his opinion about the Russian military capacity in 2017 ? Would the JCoS give an assessment about the political situation in Syria? Would the AG give his POV about the economic situation of the US ?

I will later reply about the comments on my post 16 .
About my post 16,which was a reply to post 15 (from Cerdic) which was making a distinction between Germany and AH,saying : Germany had the primary responsibility for the war,but AH did too .

I finished post 16 with :" Everything Austria was doing was planned in collaboration with Germany,was approved by Germany,was ordered by Germany ."

I still stick to this :the ultimatum was planned ,approved and ordered by Germany . The DOW :idem .As such,one can not make a distinction between Germany and Austria .

I also said : "Any distinction between Germany and Austria is a non sequitur" . I also stick to this . One can not say : Germany was partly responsible,but AH also .

But, I did not say : Any distinction between Austria and Germany is a non sequitur :what Austria was doing was planned,approved and ordered by Germany ,but,what Austria did was NOT causing the outbreak of WWI,and what Austria was not doing,was more important than what it did : AH did not invade Serbia,AH did not declare war on Russia(till 5 days AFTER the German DOW on Russia) .

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#186

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 11:59

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi ljadw,



So what if someone was a civilian? Most people who fight modrern wars are civilians at their outbreak and there is no inherent reason why an intelligent civil observer shouldn't come to rational conclusions. You should address the Jagow's argument, not the man.


Cheers,

Sid.
I am not adressing the man Jagow : I am saying that I am not willing to accept the assessment of the German foreign office about the future Russian military potential : such an assessment was not the business of the German foreign office,it was the business of the Fremde Heere Ost (if it existed in 1914).

Besides, what were the Jagow's arguments ? Are these available ?

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#187

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 12:09

Sid Guttridge wrote:Hi ljadw,

You miss the point about German fears of Russia in 1914.

Firstly, they were long term strategic. Russia had announced a major expansion of its army over the next few years. This was a major incentive for Germany to entertain the possibilities of an earlier rather than later war.


Cheers,

Sid.
Why would this be a major incentive for Germany ? It could only be a major incentive if this expansion would be a big danger for Germany .
In 1949, the SU started its nucleair weapons program .Was this a major incentive for the US ? Was Bradley writing to Truman : we must attack the SU?

Besides, there is NO proof that in 1917,Russia would be a major threat for Germany,that in 1917,Russia would be strong enough to attack Germany . How strong the Russian army woumd/could be, it never would /could be strong enough to attack Germany,without a simultaneous attack by the French army,and this was totally out of the question .

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#188

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 12:37

[quote="Sid Guttridge"

Secondly they were operational - the risk of a Russian invasion. Moltke was not immediately worried about this because he thought German war plans took this into account because (1) they underestimated the speed with which Russia could mobilise an invasion force for East Prussia and (2) because he intended to knock France out of the war rapidly and switch his victorious armies to face the belated Russian mobilization they anticipated. You cannot reasonably use Moltke's fatal complacency regarding Russia as evidence that Russia was not a potential threat to Germany.



Cheers

Sid.[/quote]

1)There only would be a risk of a Russian invasion,if Russia declared war (which it didn't),or if Germany declared war :thus,the solution to prevent a Russian invasion = do not declare war on Russia .

2) The forces Russia mobilised on the border with Germany were that small that they easily were stopped by the Germans


3) I like to see the proof that Moltke was underestimating the speed of the Russian mobilisation .

4)There is no proof that Russia mobilised on the German border because Russia wanted to invade Germany : there were no major problems between both countries .But,there are sources (which I already mentined) who say that the aim of the German DOW on Russia was to accelerate the developments in the West = to make a war in the West possible .

5)Russia being a potential threat is no excuse to declare war on Russia .

6) The potential Russian threat would not disappear by a German DOW,it only would become real,acute .

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#189

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 13:10

The German fear for the Russian reamament program was not that this would make possible an unprovoked Russian invasion of Germany,but that it would make a German war of aggression against France /Belgium (the Schlieffen/Moltke plan) impossible,or that
it would make possible for Russia to continue the war,if France was eliminated,something Germany could not afford .

I like also to mention the following : a lot of people are still following the wrong theory that what happened in the east,was deciding, that this was essential ,while it is the opposite :it was only a sham .

If there was a Russian threat, the logical solution was to concentrate 7 armies in the east,and not to open a second front in the west .

If there was a French threat, the logical solution was to concentrate 7 armies in the west,and not to open a second front by declaring war on Russia .

As there was no French threat, the explanation is that Germany wanted to start a war of aggression in the west,and that for this,previously a war/DOW with Russia was needed .

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LWD
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#190

Post by LWD » 26 Aug 2014, 13:49

ljadw wrote: ... I am not adressing the man Jagow : I am saying that I am not willing to accept the assessment of the German foreign office about the future Russian military potential : such an assessment was not the business of the German foreign office,it was the business of the Fremde Heere Ost (if it existed in 1914). ...
Are you sure about that? Foreign office often have a signifiant role in gathering and analyzing intel both civilian and military. Indeed it would appear to me that you are far less qualified to make such judgements than he was as others have already implied.

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#191

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 14:16

1)If Obama needs informations about the military potential of IS,will he summon State , CIA, DIA, Pentagon ?

2) I did not say that in 1917 the Russian Army would not constitute a" danger" for Germany ("danger" being meaningless),but that I am not willing to accept the "arguments" from the German foreign office (arguments,which no one has published ),I am willing to discuss arguments from the Ferman military,although I remain to my conviction that without French support, Russia would not attack Germany .

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BDV
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#192

Post by BDV » 26 Aug 2014, 15:22

ljadw wrote: 4) On 1 august, Russia had mobilized on the border with AH 16 AC (=32 ID),on the border with Germany 9 AC (=18 ID) and a Central Army Group was forming : 5 ID only

5) If Moltke was not scared by he mobilisation of 16 AC,why should he be scared about the mobilisation of 9 AC ?
A key detail that frequently gets overlooked is that both Russia and Germany decisionmakers actively shafted their "allies". Russia shafted France by mobilizing against AH, Germany shafted KuK by offering a grand total of two (2) infantry corps against the Russian behemoth.

Without these key details, the dynamic of the pre-war utterances is much harder to understand and reconcile with actions. With these details, it is somewhat easier to decipher between bs/platitudes and truth-reflecting statements.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#193

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 15:50

:thumbsup:

Maybe "betray" is a better word than "shaft" .

OTOH, it only confirms that the so-called 2 blocks which divided Europe,only existed in the imagination of journalists with more imagination than knowledge .

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LWD
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#194

Post by LWD » 26 Aug 2014, 17:17

ljadw wrote:1)If Obama needs informations about the military potential of IS,will he summon State , CIA, DIA, Pentagon ?
Yes.
2) I did not say that in 1917 the Russian Army would not constitute a" danger" for Germany ("danger" being meaningless),but that I am not willing to accept the "arguments" from the German foreign office (arguments,which no one has published ),I am willing to discuss arguments from the Ferman military,although I remain to my conviction that without French support, Russia would not attack Germany .
And if you aren't willing to disuss "arguments" based on historical sources most of us will likely not accept your "arguments".

ljadw
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Re: The Russian Origins of the First World War

#195

Post by ljadw » 26 Aug 2014, 18:23

This is a distortion of what I have said : I have given sources for my arguments, no one has given sources proving the claims of Jagow,even more : no one has given a link for these claims .All we have is the authorative argument : Jagow said it, thus,you must believe it .

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