OK. Also, though, wouldn't the best thing for Germany to do in such a scenario be to forbid immigration of ethnic Germans from the Baltic states to Germany proper (at least for several decades)? After all, this will probably ensure that these ethnic Germans will settle in cities in the Baltic states rather than in Germany proper, which in turn might very well allow Germany to eventually annex Courland, Riga, and a strip of Baltic coastline stretching all of the way up to Parnu and Tallinn while rump Latvia and rump Estonia would be allowed to keep their nominal independence. Indeed, in such a scenario, tensions between Germany and Latvians/Estonians can probably be reduced by having Germany allow Latvia and Estonia use ports such as Riga, Parnu, and Tallinn.michael mills wrote:That is quite possible, and indeed likely. After all, the Baltic Germans who were repatriated from Estonia and Latvia in 1939-40 were very disappointed to find themselves settled in the annexed Polish provinces rather than in Germany proper, where they had wanted to go.Would most of these ethnic Germans and their descendants have actually been willing to stay in the Baltic states, though? After all, couldn't the Ostflucht eventually affect these ethnic Germans as well, thus causing many, if not most, of these ethnic Germans and their descendants to leave the Baltic states and to move to the more industrialized western parts of Germany?
Indeed, does all of what I wrote above sound realistic to you, Michael?
In addition to this, though, out of curiosity--were Hindenburg and Ludendorff planning to have Russia coerce its entire ethnic German population to settle in Latvia and Estonia? Or were they simply going to encourage Russia's entire ethnic German population to do this?
Wasn't Nazi Germany much more thuggish in its Germanization tactics (such as by taking children away from their parents) than Imperial Germany ever was, though?I personally doubt it, since there was a lot of resistance to germanisation by Alsatians, Poles and Danes. Perhaps a million or so non-Germans might have been successfully germanised, but the historical reality is that when the modern German state ruled over non-Germans it failed to reconcile the majority of them to German rule, even German-speakers such as the Alsatians.Of course, what might be the unpredictable factor here is this: Would Nazi Germany have been able to gradually Germanize millions or even tens of millions of "racially suitable" non-Germans?
Frankly, this certainly raises an interesting question--let's say that Otto von Bismarck hit his head on something in late 1870 and had a personality change. Afterwards, Bismarck decides to annex resource-rich Briey and Longwy in addition to annexing Alsace-Lorraine in 1871. In turn, the loss of revenue that results from the loss of resource-rich Briey and Longwy cripples France for decades to come. Meanwhile, with the threat of France permanently eliminated, Bismarck (with German Kaiser Wilhelm I's and the German Reichstag's extremely reluctant approval) goes to war against Russia in 1877 with the excuse that he wants to help the Ottoman Empire preserve the balance-of-power in the Middle East. Learning from its experiences in Prussia's previous wars against Denmark, Austria, and France, Germany manages to defeat the less industrialized Russia and to acquire Poland and the Baltic states (all of which will become German puppet states right afterwards) from Russia. Afterwards, the German government encourages Germany's population to settle in the Baltic states (indeed, Poland is probably too densely populated for large-scale German settlement) instead of emigrating abroad.I think what most concerned Hitler was that although Germany had produced a large population surplus in the 19th Century, most of it, several millions, had been lost through emigration, mainly to the United States. He considered that the reason for that large-scale emigration was Germany's inability to provide living space for the increased population.Yes; correct! In turn, this shows that Adolf Hitler's belief that Germany lacked Lebensraum was more imaginary than real (as in, based on reality).
Anyway, I have two questions for you about this scenario of mine, Michael:
1. Is this scenario of mine realistic?
2. How many Germans do you think would settle in the Baltic states in the several decades after 1878 in this scenario of mine?
Indeed, any thoughts on these two questions of mine, Michael?