Rich,
The debate about landing craft allocation estimates had already cropped up in August 1943, but the decision to wait till they could be provided, allowing the wider assault and delaying ANVIL, wasn't reached until 21 March on Eisenhower's recommendation, which was endorsed by Montgomery.
Well, sort of - but I think it would be fairer to say that the final decision to recommend to the Combined Chiefs of Staff that Anvil should be abandoned "in its present conception of a two division assault building up to ten divisions" was finally reached by Eisenhower on 21 March as Montgomery (and Smith) had first recommended to him on 5 Jan 44. At that time, Eisenhower stated that he agreed "that OVERLORD must be more broadly based, but I do not agree that a threat of ANVIL will be as effective as the operation itself...Only in the event that OVERLORD cannot possibly be broadened without abandonment of ANVIL would I consider making such a recommendation to the Combined Chiefs".
Incidentally, the US Chiefs of Staff overruled Eisenhower and insisted that ANVIL not be abandoned but merely delayed (which left poor Eisenhower with the task of placating Churchill for the next 5 months, which can't have been much fun!
).
Sheldrake,
The size of the assault force was limited by the number of landing craft that could provide transport and mount the fire support. IIRC, the landing craft for the additional two divisions had to be built, mainly in British ship yards using capacity which had been prioritised for used for small escort vessels, but not quite as important in 1944 as in 1943.
Indeed, and as Ramsay put it in his diary entry of 15 Jan:
Saturday, January 15. Situation regarding Overlord plan is now as follows:- Monty has come down firmly with request for 5 Div assault. I have agreed, subject to necessary lift and naval forces for bombardment, minesweeping & escort being available. In doing so I am under no delusions as to the complexity of the naval operations entailed by this requirement & as to the extent to which success will be a gamble with fortune. The weather, both for air & surface participation could of itself mar success. The mine menace is very real, and the degree of training of the thousands of craft will be unknown up to a late date, the capacity of the beaches & their suitability for receiving the craft & ships of all kind is also largely guesswork. The making of the artificial harbours is also in the realm of fairyland & may or may not be a practical proposition. We now await information from Chiefs of Staff whether we are to get the extra lift or not. Until then we just cannot plan on any firm foundation.
His diary is a vital source to understanding the development of the OVERLORD plan but seems to have been mostly overlooked in favour of the army sources.
Cheers
Tom