Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

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ljadw
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1366

Post by ljadw » 26 Mar 2015, 09:36

steverodgers801 wrote:There was no deployment issue, the PZ units used in the invasion of Yugoslavia were available a week after the start of April 6th and had reached Poland by the start of May. SO even if an additional week was needed to recoup, the Germans could have started the first week of June. The delay was due to the river Bug being to dangerous to cross.

Yes and no : the attack from Rumania was curtailed to a "one arm attack",because only seven divisions were avaiable for 11th Army .

OTOH,this did not cause the delay :the principal reason for the delay was the late dawn: at the end of may,the Bug and the Narev were still in flood .

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1367

Post by ljadw » 26 Mar 2015, 09:58

steverodgers801 wrote:It made sense to Hitler, but Stalin assumed that Hitler would think like other people, he should have realized Hitler had his own logic

Yes and no 8-)

In august 1914,the Germans went West,because it was (rightly) assumed that it was impossible to eliminate Russia in a short campaign .

After the war,a lot of persons in Germany (including Hitler) claimed that the 2 front war was the cause of the German defeat,not realising/ignoring the fact that it was hardly possible for Germany to start a one front war in 1914,and that the influence of the Russian front on the Western front was asserting itself only after the Marne battle,when all chances for victory in the West were gone .

Whatever,after WWI,the 2 front war being the reason for the German defeat,became a dogma,and Stalin assumed that Hitler would not repeat the mistake of the Kaiser.

But,in june 1941,the Germans were going West,because in the West,they had landed in a dead end :it was not possible to eliminate Britain in a short campaign,before the US would officialy intervene .

There was also a second psychological reason for Stalin's refusal to accept the possibility of a German attack :in a short campaign of 6 weeks,Germany had succeeded to eliminate France,the army of whom was considered as invincible and Stalin knew that the situation of the Red Army was deplorable (to use an euphemism) and that it was impossible to do something about it in the short run .

The SU was as a man who was tied up on a railway line,while in the distance a train was arriving,the only thing the man could hope was that at the last moment,the train would stop or take an other direction .


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Attrition
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1368

Post by Attrition » 26 Mar 2015, 10:15

The Germans did have a one-front war in 1914, for long enough to make certain that the western front and all the destruction wouldn't be in Germany. In the east they gambled that they could delay the Russians with Austrian help and won. The Germans then spent 1915 clearing up the mess in the east, ready for the Verdun spoiling offensive in 1916. It's almost as if they expected something along those lines all along.

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Appleknocker27
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1369

Post by Appleknocker27 » 26 Mar 2015, 14:12

steverodgers801 wrote:It made sense to Hitler, but Stalin assumed that Hitler would think like other people, he should have realized Hitler had his own logic
Hitler was presented with information from the Abwehr and he made his decisions accordingly:

"Initial estimates of the Soviet Red Army's will and capability were low, a line of thinking shared by the Nazi hierarchy. A great deal has been made by historians over this fact, but some of the German General Staff's optimism was the result of estimates provided by the Abwehr, whose assessments left the German General Staff believing that the Red Army only possessed ninety infantry divisions, twenty-three cavalry divisions, and a mere twenty-eight mechanized brigades.[55] By the time the reappraisal of the Red Army by German military intelligence occurred in mid-June 1941 (which was about 25 percent higher than previously reported), it was a foregone conclusion that the Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union was going to take place.[56] Late assessments from the Abwehr contributed to military overconfidence and their reporting mechanism said nothing of the massive mobilization capability of the Soviet Union, another oversight and a major factor that arguably contributed to the German defeat since time-tables were so important for the Germans to succeed. Failure by the German Army to reach their objectives in short-order was crucial, and once winter came, this reality caused massive suffering for German forces whose supplies could hardly reach them.[57][58][59] Overestimating their capabilities and trusting their own assessments too much, as well as underestimating their enemies (especially the Soviets and the Americans),[60] atop long-standing traditions of unconditional obedience, comprised an historically central weakness in the German system.[61]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abwehr#Und ... ssar_Order

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1370

Post by Appleknocker27 » 26 Mar 2015, 14:42

ljadw wrote:
steverodgers801 wrote:There was no deployment issue, the PZ units used in the invasion of Yugoslavia were available a week after the start of April 6th and had reached Poland by the start of May. SO even if an additional week was needed to recoup, the Germans could have started the first week of June. The delay was due to the river Bug being to dangerous to cross.

Yes and no : the attack from Rumania was curtailed to a "one arm attack",because only seven divisions were avaiable for 11th Army .

OTOH,this did not cause the delay :the principal reason for the delay was the late dawn: at the end of may,the Bug and the Narev were still in flood .
As I understand it, Plan Otto (upgrade of the Ostbahn) was not complete until 15 June or perhaps later, deployments were incomplete even as of 22 June and also of note:
"For the attack on the Soviet Union, three Feldeisenbahndirektionen (FBD) (Military Railway Administrations) were established during the spring of 1941. These three FBD's would serve as the main supply life-lines of the German invasion forces. The newly created entities were FBD 1, FBD, 2 and FBD 3. Each contained a full compliment of administrative personnel, repair facilities and construction works.
FBD 1 was quickly withdrawn and used for the Balkan campaign before Barbarossa began. FBD 4 was hastily erected in June of 1941 in Danzig as a replacement for FBD 1. FBD 2 was created during the month of April, 1941, in Dresden."

http://www.feldgrau.com/dreichsbahn.html

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1371

Post by ljadw » 26 Mar 2015, 16:11

Appleknocker27 wrote:
ljadw wrote:
steverodgers801 wrote:There was no deployment issue, the PZ units used in the invasion of Yugoslavia were available a week after the start of April 6th and had reached Poland by the start of May. SO even if an additional week was needed to recoup, the Germans could have started the first week of June. The delay was due to the river Bug being to dangerous to cross.

Yes and no : the attack from Rumania was curtailed to a "one arm attack",because only seven divisions were avaiable for 11th Army .

OTOH,this did not cause the delay :the principal reason for the delay was the late dawn: at the end of may,the Bug and the Narev were still in flood .
As I understand it, Plan Otto (upgrade of the Ostbahn) was not complete until 15 June or perhaps later, deployments were incomplete even as of 22 June and also of note:
"For the attack on the Soviet Union, three Feldeisenbahndirektionen (FBD) (Military Railway Administrations) were established during the spring of 1941. These three FBD's would serve as the main supply life-lines of the German invasion forces. The newly created entities were FBD 1, FBD, 2 and FBD 3. Each contained a full compliment of administrative personnel, repair facilities and construction works.
FBD 1 was quickly withdrawn and used for the Balkan campaign before Barbarossa began. FBD 4 was hastily erected in June of 1941 in Danzig as a replacement for FBD 1. FBD 2 was created during the month of April, 1941, in Dresden."

http://www.feldgrau.com/dreichsbahn.html
Even if Plan Otto was completed earlier (may) the attack still would have been delayed because of the late dawn .

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1372

Post by Appleknocker27 » 26 Mar 2015, 18:14

Certainly, there were multiple issues but from a military standpoint (as this was a military operation...) the deployment of the formations taking part took precedence in importance.

By "late dawn" do you mean spring? I took it as spring since the light cycle in May/June is no issue.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1373

Post by steverodgers801 » 26 Mar 2015, 20:20

thaw I meant

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1374

Post by steverodgers801 » 26 Mar 2015, 20:23

The original plan called for a second German group to attack from Rumania to act as a pincer for Kleist's PZ group. Hitler changed that.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1375

Post by wm » 26 Mar 2015, 21:42

ljadw wrote:It was on full alert on 22 june,but this was not helping the Soviets .
It was, in a few random places and it didn't help much, but still an unhelpful measure can be useful. After all, they closed the watertight doors on Titanic although they knew that would not save her. Lack of preparedness meant lots of lives and resources were wasted needlessly.
ljadw wrote:There was also a second psychological reason for Stalin's refusal to accept the possibility of a German attack :in a short campaign of 6 weeks,Germany had succeeded to eliminate France,the army of whom was considered as invincible and Stalin knew that the situation of the Red Army was deplorable (to use an euphemism) and that it was impossible to do something about it in the short run .

The SU was as a man who was tied up on a railway line,while in the distance a train was arriving,the only thing the man could hope was that at the last moment,the train would stop or take an other direction .
So he was a damsel in distress. But Dimitrov wrote this in his diary on the first day of the war:
Striking calmness, resoluteness, confidence of Stalin and all the others.
Stalin to me: "They attacked as without declaring any grievances, without demanding any negotiations: they attacked us viciously, like gangsters.
So he didn't expect the war, expected more talks, more horse trading. He was calm and confident.
He ordered many large counterattacks in the first months of the war. A man convinced his army is of little value doesn't act like that, doesn't take risks like that.
On 30 July 1941, Harry Hopkins wrote after meeting Stalin that he exuded great confidence and unflagging optimism.
It seems he was actually confident and not afraid of the war.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1376

Post by steverodgers801 » 27 Mar 2015, 01:51

Actually an alert did go out finally, but it never reached many places. The commander of Odessa risked arrest by ordering his flak units to open fire without permission

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1377

Post by Appleknocker27 » 27 Mar 2015, 18:12

wm wrote: So he didn't expect the war, expected more talks, more horse trading. He was calm and confident.
He ordered many large counterattacks in the first months of the war. A man convinced his army is of little value doesn't act like that, doesn't take risks like that.
On 30 July 1941, Harry Hopkins wrote after meeting Stalin that he exuded great confidence and unflagging optimism.
It seems he was actually confident and not afraid of the war.
According to Khruschev and Molotov, Stalin had a nervous break down and secluded himself for about a week after the invasion started. Only after that did he show the will to fight and that took some sessions with his generals for him to build his nerve.
As for the counter-attacks he ordered, that was the pre-war plan and it was scripted, to mean that was the only plan on the shelf to choose from. As an example of this, on 09-11 the US had no plan for what happened but instead simply used the plan that was on the shelf for Y2K (which fortunately worked fairly well, unlike the Soviets plan in 1941). Stalin had no idea how bad the Red Army would perform vs the Wehrmacht until the two met in combat, by then there was nothing he could do. Stalin (a cut throat politician) putting on a brave face for a foreign envoy of a powerful nation isn't exactly indicative of much of anything at all beyond his diplomatic skill.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1378

Post by ljadw » 27 Mar 2015, 18:37

Appleknocker27 wrote:
According to Khruschev and Molotov, Stalin had a nervous break down and secluded himself for about a week after the invasion started. Only after that did he show the will to fight and that took some sessions with his generals for him to build his nerve.
.
This has been proved to be not correct .There was no nervous break down and Stalin was working from the first day of the war .

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1379

Post by steverodgers801 » 27 Mar 2015, 20:25

He did disappear for about 10 days, but whether it was a deliberate ploy or actual loss of nerve is unsure. He did let Molotov make the first public speech formally announcing war to the Soviets.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1380

Post by steverodgers801 » 27 Mar 2015, 20:27

Stalin was a first rate politician and misjudging Hitler was one of his few mistakes. He did not get to power by being a mediocre talent as Trotsky likes to claim

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