Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

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BDV
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1411

Post by BDV » 28 Jul 2016, 23:25

Omeganian wrote:
BDV wrote:
Omeganian wrote:Offensive plans have been found. The actual distribution of the Soviet forces matches them as closely as one would expect a plan to match reality.
Such claims have been made repeatedly by Germany and its apologists, about multiple occasions (see Belgium WWI).

The weight of the proof falls on those that accuse Sovjet Union of such thoughts.
If actual carrying out of the plans isn't considered proof, then what possibly is? Some piece of paper?

Yes, the piece of paper on which the "offensive plans have been found." Also the piece of paper carrying the orders to implement those offensive plans.
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1412

Post by michael mills » 29 Jul 2016, 00:42

The offensive plans certainly do exist on pieces of paper, which have been published by Russian historians, in particular the Timoshenko-Zhukov pre-emptive strike plan of May 1941, of which a complete first draft exists.

So far as I know, there is no extant copy of a written order from Stalin ordering the offensive plans to be implemented. There are three possible explanations for that lack of evidence:

1. Such a written order never existed.

2. That written order did exist, but all traces of it were destroyed between 1941 and 1990, in order to preserve the myth of the "Great Patriotic War" which was the ideological basis for the continued existence of Communist rule after 1945.

3. The written order still exists, but is kept hidden in order to preserve the myth of the "Great Patriotic War", which continues to play a major role in the claim to legitimacy of the post-Communist ruling class in Russia, despite being questioned by some Russian historians.

It is impossible at this stage to be certain which of those three explanations is the true one.


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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1413

Post by Attrition » 29 Jul 2016, 02:14

michael mills wrote:The offensive plans certainly do exist on pieces of paper, which have been published by Russian historians, in particular the Timoshenko-Zhukov pre-emptive strike plan of May 1941, of which a complete first draft exists.

So far as I know, there is no extant copy of a written order from Stalin ordering the offensive plans to be implemented. There are three possible explanations for that lack of evidence:

1. Such a written order never existed.

2. That written order did exist, but all traces of it were destroyed between 1941 and 1990, in order to preserve the myth of the "Great Patriotic War" which was the ideological basis for the continued existence of Communist rule after 1945.

3. The written order still exists, but is kept hidden in order to preserve the myth of the "Great Patriotic War", which continues to play a major role in the claim to legitimacy of the post-Communist ruling class in Russia, despite being questioned by some Russian historians.

It is impossible at this stage to be certain which of those three explanations is the true one.
Have you tried comparing the military preparations of the USSR and USSA or is the undeclared war in the Atlantic of lesser interest than the peace between Germany and the USSR? ;o)

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1414

Post by michael mills » 29 Jul 2016, 02:43

Have you tried comparing the military preparations of the USSR and USSA or is the undeclared war in the Atlantic of lesser interest than the peace between Germany and the USSR? ;o)
I do not think that the undeclared war in the Atlantic is of lesser interest. In fact, I think it has been neglected and should be publicised more, since the general public seems to be largely ignorant of it.

The existence of the undeclared naval war between the USA and Germany, initiated by Roosevelt's "shoot on sight" order of 11 September 1941, refutes the commonly held idea that the open war between those two countries was started solely by Hitler with an unprovoked declaration of war on the USA on 11 December. It is no accident that Hitler chose that date, exactly three months after Roosevelt's initiation of the de facto state of war in the Atlantic.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1415

Post by Attrition » 29 Jul 2016, 10:46

It began earlier than Barbarossa, yet people pore over Red Army dispositions to find a pretext for the German invasion as a forestalling attack. Hitler declared war on the USSA when he did, to try to keep the Far Eastern war going so that he could have a second attempt to defeat the USSR in 1942. Desperation and cumulative radicalisation added together.
Last edited by Attrition on 29 Jul 2016, 14:59, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1416

Post by Appleknocker27 » 29 Jul 2016, 14:06

The Soviets/Red Army/Stalin/Zhukov, etc. were most definitely NOT planning a strategic offensive pre-emptive or otherwise in 1941. The Red Army was simply not capable of undertaking an operation of that scale in 1941. The units in the Western Military Districts were very far away from even a base level of operational readiness to be able to undertake large scale operations of any kind successfully. They had major issues with personnel shortages, deficient training, equipment shortages, weapon shortages, vehicle shortages, deficient maintenance of existing vehicles/tanks/equipment and a major shortage of electronics/communication equipment. The shortages/deficiencies were all at critical levels which left the Red Army in a very poor state of readiness that even full mobilization couldn't make good until 1942 at the earliest. Even then, the Red Army remained a hastily raised, unseasoned force of conscripts with little technical skill that spoke multiple different languages. The performance of the Red Army of 1941 and 1942 is a result of these shortages/deficiencies and nothing else. The Wehrmacht was a better quality organization from top to bottom in 1941-42 and the Red Army paid the price for a lack of preparation.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1417

Post by michael mills » 29 Jul 2016, 14:58

The Soviets/Red Army/Stalin/Zhukov, etc. were most definitely NOT planning a strategic offensive pre-emptive or otherwise in 1941. The Red Army was simply not capable of undertaking an operation of that scale in 1941.
The historian Evan Mawdsley takes a different view. He considers that Stalin was not afraid of a military confrontation with Germany, and was preparing seriously for it. He also considers that the Timoshenko-Zhukov pre-emptive strike plan of May 1941 was a real plan for a first strike, and that it was in the process of implementation.

However, he also takes the view that the first strike envisaged by Timoshenko and Zhukov could not have been launched before the German first strike occurred in historical reality, since the level of forces prescribed in their plan of May 1941 had not been reached as of the date of the German invasion. He concludes that the Red Army was at least two months away from achieving the capacity to launch a first strike.

Another historian, Omer Bartov, concludes that as of 22 June 1941 the Red Army was already technologically superior to the German Army in tanks and aircraft, and that that superiority was maintained throughout the German-Soviet War, making the Soviet victory inevitable.

Lennart Samuelson is another historian who believes in the technological superiority of the Soviet military in 1941, a superiority that was known to German experts who had actually observed the Soviet military industries. He shows that the Soviet Government allowed German experts to undertake study tours of Soviet aircraft and other military-industrial factories, as part of Stalin's attempt to delay the German assault.

I am not saying that the views of the above historians must be absolutely correct, but they should be taken into account, since theyare opposed to the image of the Red Army as the "stumbling colossus".

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1418

Post by Appleknocker27 » 29 Jul 2016, 17:37

"Stumbling Colossus" clearly demonstrates the Red Army's organizational readiness from primary source material. The facts revealed there are unmistakable that the Red Army was not and could not be successfully prepared for major combat in 1941.
In regard to technological superiority, that without a doubt belonged to the Wehrmacht in 1941 and well beyond. The issue isn't the armor layout, off road ability or gun of the T34 and KV vs German tanks. The issue is operational tempo which is a function of tried and tested doctrine that is enabled by fully integrated wireless radio technology and a highly trained leadership cadre. Compare German radio technology with Soviet to include the percent of fill at unit level (aka the user end), compare German military truck technology, numbers and organization to Soviet (aka the lifeblood of mobility and operational reach). Soviet tanks rarely had radios in 1941, put that in comparison to German forces that had radios in all tanks, aircraft, liaison points, command posts, even down to the individual Infantry platoons and logistical units. The Germans had a viable tactical radio net in 1941, the Soviets never had that even until the end of the war. Modern warfare requires this essential technology, yet people like Bartov opine about tanks and aircraft in such a way that in spite of Phd status they render themselves incompetent in matters of military science quite quickly.
Glantz gets it right and just because others take an opposite view, that doesn't give their opinions equal basis or weight, especially when Glantz clearly demonstrates real operational capability in unassailable method.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1419

Post by steverodgers801 » 29 Jul 2016, 19:23

Omeganian, not if half or more of your tank forces are incapacitated due to the lack of parts because the BT series of tanks had been discontinued, but production of the T34 was just beginning. There was also the problem of trying to reform large tank units after disbanding them a few years earlier and few of the commanders had any idea what they were doing, equipment was in short supply as were supplies.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1420

Post by Appleknocker27 » 29 Jul 2016, 20:10

Picture if you will a tank corps with only 25-30% of its tanks in running order. The tanks lack spare parts, ammunition, working radios, etc. The tank company commanders that do have radios have weak radios (assuming they are in working order) which can't reach their battalion HQ's beyond 7-10kn direct line of sight, who cannot reach their higher HQ's. These tanks with all of their issues cannot coordinate refuel, re-arm, resupply because their support units lack radios as well. On top of this their supporting artillery has little in the way of communications equipment and no aiming circles (required item to execute accurate indirect fire). No aiming circle, no maps, no communications, few trucks, limited ammunition = no fire support.
On top of this the tank corps lacks experienced officers, mechanics (automotive, electronics and armament), and every other skilled position that requires time and experience to perform. A unit like this can only be counted on to step off with one tank full of fuel and on board ammunition only, once those are gone the unit will disintegrate. This is exactly what happened in June/July of 1941.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1421

Post by Omeganian » 29 Jul 2016, 22:36

Appleknocker27 wrote:They had major issues with personnel shortages, deficient training, equipment shortages, weapon shortages, vehicle shortages, deficient maintenance of existing vehicles/tanks/equipment and a major shortage of electronics/communication equipment. The shortages/deficiencies were all at critical levels which left the Red Army in a very poor state of readiness that even full mobilization couldn't make good until 1942 at the earliest.
If you compare the figures to what they were supposed to have according to the mobilization plan, it might look that way. If you compare it to what they had when they won the war... quite a different impression.
Appleknocker27 wrote: compare German military truck technology, numbers and organization to Soviet (aka the lifeblood of mobility and operational reach).
With a single German tank division having 200 types of trucks? Yeah, I would say the comparison is clear.
Appleknocker27 wrote: Soviet tanks rarely had radios in 1941, put that in comparison to German forces that had radios in all tanks, aircraft, liaison points, command posts, even down to the individual Infantry platoons and logistical units.
Everyone needs a radio when everyone operates on his own. The Soviet military doctrine was large units.
Appleknocker27 wrote: The Germans had a viable tactical radio net in 1941, the Soviets never had that even until the end of the war. Modern warfare requires this essential technology,
It's essential, yet the Soviets won without it? Nice joke...
Appleknocker27 wrote:yet people like Bartov opine about tanks and aircraft in such a way that in spite of Phd status they render themselves incompetent in matters of military science quite quickly.
Judging from the footnotes in the Russian edition of the Stumbling Colossus, Glantz has quite a talent for that himself.
steverodgers801 wrote:Omeganian, not if half or more of your tank forces are incapacitated due to the lack of parts because the BT series of tanks had been discontinued, but production of the T34 was just beginning.
Mind naming a single unit which had to leave half its tanks at the base? Because wherever I look, it's 10-15%.
steverodgers801 wrote:There was also the problem of trying to reform large tank units after disbanding them a few years earlier and few of the commanders had any idea what they were doing, equipment was in short supply as were supplies.
The Germans had to make everything from scratch in the 30-s, a good number of their tank divisions never fought before June 1941 or just had a couple weeks of experience, half were green recruits. Aircraft crews, too. Didn't stop them. Problems can always be found.
Appleknocker27 wrote:Picture if you will a tank corps with only 25-30% of its tanks in running order.
One can only imagine, because the search for such a unit in real life is yet to yield results.
Appleknocker27 wrote:The tank company commanders that do have radios have weak radios (assuming they are in working order) which can't reach their battalion HQ's beyond 7-10kn direct line of sight, who cannot reach their higher HQ's.
Which models of radio are these? Because the common tank radio at the time was 15 km range, 50 while standing. And they were produced at a rate of hundreds per month.
Appleknocker27 wrote:These tanks with all of their issues cannot coordinate refuel, re-arm, resupply because their support units lack radios as well.
Again the old bullshit of no radio=no communication. And mind you, without any figures.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1422

Post by Art » 31 Jul 2016, 05:32

Appleknocker27 wrote:Soviet tanks rarely had radios in 1941
Not true. In general what you describe is some sort of fantasy world with Wehrmacht and Red Army instead of hobbits and goblins.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1423

Post by antfreire » 01 Aug 2016, 00:16

I find this question rather naive. Of course Stalin was preparing to attack Nazi Germany. Didn't he know that Hitler was a committed anti-bolshevik that would attack USSR as soon as he could solve his politically-military situation in the west? The problem is that he also knew that his armed forces were not prepared for such a task and unless the German Army went into a military embarrassment in the West, he would need time to get his forces ready. It was a race with time and Hitler won, (or so he thought)

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1424

Post by Attrition » 01 Aug 2016, 11:09

I think that the USSR and the USSA were rearming to defend themselves and were not entirely intent on passive defence but the Soviet appeasement of Germany after the Franco-British volte-face at Munich and their plotting to attack the USSR (Operation Pike etc) carries more weight than fanciful assumptions of Soviet aggression. Compare the Soviet attitude to Japan, Finland, the Baltics and Rumania, limited gains from limited commitments, nothing like the imperialist aggression of Germany and the other west Euro/north American polities of the previous few centuries.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1425

Post by BDV » 01 Aug 2016, 15:19

Attrition wrote:I think that the USSR and the USSA were rearming to defend themselves and were not entirely intent on passive defence but the Soviet appeasement of Germany after the Franco-British volte-face at Munich and their plotting to attack the USSR (Operation Pike etc) carries more weight than fanciful assumptions of Soviet aggression. Compare the Soviet attitude to Japan, Finland, the Baltics and Rumania, limited gains from limited commitments, nothing like the imperialist aggression of Germany and the other west Euro/north American polities of the previous few centuries.

Just because they were marginally more competent does not magically transforms the likes of Winnie, FDR, and Stalin into saints.
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