When did the Germans lose the war in the East?

[KDF33]

This thread seeks to discuss the moment / event / sequence of events after which a German victory was no longer feasible on the Eastern Front.

I believe the last opportunity was lost with Operation Uranus, between November 1942 and January 1943.

Your thoughts?

Regards,

KDF

[Tim Smith]

What do you mean by 'victory'?

Unconditional surrender of the USSR?

Negotiated peace resulting in USSR losing everything west of the Ural Mountains?

Negotiated peace resulting in USSR losing Baltic States, Byelorussia and most of Ukraine (as per current Russian Federation borders)?

Negotiated peace resulting in restoration of the 1941 border, and a non-aggression pact with USSR, allowing Germany to concentrate on the Western Allies?

'Victory' can mean a lot of things for Germany in the East, ranging from 'total' to 'very limited'.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both cousin KDF33 and the community as a whole. Well sir, in light of your introductory posting of Wednesday - April 24, 2013 - 7:33pm, old yours truly will go out on a limb and assert that it was the failure of OPERATION FLASH on March 13, 1943 that ultimately sealed the fate of the Third Reich's ambitions on the Eastern Front. The assassination and subsequent replacement of Adolf Hitler as both chief of state and commander of the armed forces would be requisite for any hope of salvaging the near term strategic situation in the Soviet Union. By the Spring of 1943, it was obvious that the Third Reich could no longer "win" on the Eastern Front, but the Third Reich did not have to necessarily "lose" on the Eastern Front either. Given a rational free hand, the Wehrmacht might have fought the Red Army to a standstill thus allowing Adolf Hitler's heir apparent to negotiate an armistice with Koba the Terrible. Well, that's my initial two cents worth on this theoretical topic of interest - for now anyway. In anycase, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day up in your corner of the GREAT WHITE NORTH of the Canadian Confederation - EH!?

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[BuddaBell123]

I believe that the war was lost for the Axis on the Eastern Front by Winter, 1943. When Operation Citadel was cancelled by Adolf Hitler on the 16Th of July 1943 he handed over the initiative to the Soviet Union. Operation Citadel was the last major Axis offensive on the Eastern Front. The Soviet Union had by now outnumbered, outgunned and in some cases outskilled the Axis, for example the Red Army was better adjusted to crossing rivers than the Axis had ever been. The Axis had lost too many men and too much material to hold their current front line. After their failed summer offensive the Axis had to retreat to shorten their over-extended front line and supply lines, they chose to retreat 150-200 miles West to the Dnieper River in the Ukraine where the long and wide river could be used as a natural obstacle against the inevitable Red Army offensives. The next major battle for Army Group South was the Battle of the Dnieper which began on the 24Th of August 1943 and ended on the 23rd December 1943 with most of the West bank of the river being in Red Army hands. At this point also the Panther–Wotan line that Adolf Hitler hoped would hold back the Red Army and exhaust it in a war of attrition of men and material to the point of surrender (this was very unlikely to have happened, but thats another debate) had failed to do so and was largely in Red Army hands in the South of the Soviet Union by the 1st of December 1943. The Axis had no more chances to repeat another major offensive on the Eastern Front after the failure of Operation Citadel. It had only enough men and material to only just hold their already over-extended front line. Their retreat to the Dnieper River did little to improve the state of their front line. Finally, after the majority of the Dnieper River and Panther-Wotan Line were in Red Army hands there were no more defensive lines natural or man-made to protect the Axis from the inevitable Red Army offensives. The war was now lost on the Eastern Front for the Axis.

-Oliver.

[AriX]

Germans lost war on the East Front when its stoped to be war of armies and started to be war of economies. After defeat at Stalingrad there were no more chancses for Reich to "knock-out" Soviets.

[pintere]

The way I see it on the Eastern front.

After Stalingrad, the Germans had no more hope of defeating the Soviets and achieving their aims in the east. After Bagration, they had no more hope of preventing the Russians from winning the war and occupying their country.

[MarkN]

Oooooh! Another thread ressurected from the dead.

With the benefit of hindisight we know the Germans could never 'win' the war against Russia. Even the very limited objective stated in Weisung 21 was beyond their capability. So, I guess they lost it the day Hitler decided to go for it. Which would have been sometime during the preparation of Mein Kampf.

[Max Payload]

My suggestion would be 7 July '42 when the armies of SWF and SF abandoned the 1941 policy of fighting as far to the west as possible, and began a retreat (semi-rout) to the left bank of the Don/Chir. This withdrawal thwarted the German strategic objective of trapping the two Fronts west of the Don and Donets. If the 'Not One Step Back' order had been issued and enforced in the first week of July, another 'one million-man' encirclement would probably have occurred in the second half of July '42. After the earlier disasters of the Crimea and Barvenkovo in May, even the commitment of half a dozen reserve armies to the south may not have been enough to stop a complete collapse of the Red Army south of Voronezh. A disaster on that scale may not have led to a Soviet capitulation but it may have induced Stalin to explore peace terms.

[ViKinG]

Quite simply the failure of Barbarossa signalled the end of all German hopes in the east. It was now a war of attrition in which Germany was quite ill suited for and could not compete. Not to mention its non-wartime economy and the fact that they declared war on the U.S in December 1941 and still had to deal with Britain. Barbarossa was a high gamble and when that failed, it was a question of when, not if, Germany would be defeated. All other battles in the east following that merely accelerated their defeat.
But that's just my opinion =)
Luc

[imi912]

Because the germans came again into war on two fronts like WW1
If Pearl Harbor is not done and America not enter the war, the Germans had defeated the Russians, who were about 20 kilometers from Moscow

[uhu]

They lost the war in late August 1939 when Ribbentrop flew to Moscow and signed the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact. That's also when Stalin won the war.

[stg 44]

They lost the war in late August 1939 when Ribbentrop flew to Moscow and signed the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact. That's also when Stalin won the war.

How do you figure? Had Germany been able to convince Britain to make peace in 1940 Stalin would have been defeated by a German invasion, just not in 1941.

[Tomg44]

Good point Uhu. Upon the signing the Soviet Union border effectively moved 100 miles West . Barbarossa then had to start 100 miles west of where it could have. Assuming the same expenditure of manpower and material, every day thereafter the the invading force was 100 miles west of its potential position. Would there have been any downside to starting from the old Poland/Russia border?

[steverodgers801]

To counter that, the Soviets dismantled their fortifications that covered the Polish border and could have been effective if intact

[uhu]

They lost the war in late August 1939 when Ribbentrop flew to Moscow and signed the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact. That's also when Stalin won the war.

How do you figure? Had Germany been able to convince Britain to make peace in 1940 Stalin would have been defeated by a German invasion, just not in 1941.

Churchill making peace in 1940? Stalin not moving West? FDR working to keep the U.S. out of the war? Japanese not attacking after the U.S. cut off oil supplies?