Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

Discussions on WW2 in Eastern Europe.
Locked
ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1336

Post by ljadw » 20 Mar 2015, 23:56

The informations Stalin received were unproved:the troop movements did not indicate an approaching German attack .

The same for the recon plane : the U2 aircraft (1960) also did not indicate an American attack on the SU ,neither did the existence of Rote Kapelle indicate a Soviet attack on Germany .

The informations from Schulze-Boysen were useless for the SU,as were the informations from Sorge .

Only the arrival of the German mobile divisions on the border did switch the lights from green to red,and than it was to late to do something .The only thing the Soviets could do on 15 june was to hope that there would be no war and if there was a war,to hope that there would be no disaster .

About Rote Kapelle,if I am not wrong,RK was operating from Brusses,not from Berlin,thus how could it have informations about favilities built in Poland .

The informations Stalin received contained nothing he could use to make a decision :could he decree a general mobiisation using the BS he received? Things as :it is believed that Hiter will attack the SU in the second half of june 1941 .

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 8753
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 21:11
Location: Poland

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1337

Post by wm » 21 Mar 2015, 00:25

The correct decision would be to double/triple efforts to find more and better intelligence.

Of course there were small, immaterial mistakes in those reports. But they were invariably in agreement that the USSR would be attacked, not the US, Great Britain or Turkey. And it was known the people writing those reports were trustworthy and dependable.
For example, for the Warsaw RU residency worked among others those people:
- Rudolf von Scheliha (code name Ariets), first secretary in the German embassy in Warsaw; later in the German Foreign Ministry in Berlin.
- Kurt and Margarita Völkisch (code names AVS and LTsL), secretaries in the Warsaw embassy, later in Bucharest.
- Rudolf Herrnstadt correspondent of the German newspaper Berliner Tageblatt, close friend of German ambassador Hans-Adolf von Moltke.

And for example:
On January 4, 1941, Ariets confirmed that ‘‘he had this information from a friend in the military; moreover, it was based not on rumors but on a special order of Hitler that was especially secret and known to only a few people.’’
On February 28, 1941, Ariets followed up with a more detailed report on preparations for war against the USSR: ‘‘People involved in the project confirm that war with Russia has definitely been decided on for this year [1941].’’
Three army groups had been formed under Marshals von Bock, von Rundstedt, and von Leeb, prepared to advance on Leningrad, Moscow, and Kiev. ‘‘The beginning of the attack is provisionally set for May 20. To all appearances, an enveloping attack is planned in the Pinsk area with a force of 120 German divisions. Preparatory measures have resulted in the assignment of Russian-speaking officers and non-commissioned officers to various headquarters. In addition, armored trains are being constructed with wide gauges as in Russia.’’ From a person close to Göring, Ariets heard that ‘‘Hitler intends to bring in around three million slaves from Russia in order to improve his industrial capacity.’’
From the Prague RU residency:
On April 15, 1941, the Prague residency reported that ‘‘according to an individual in the circle of persons close to German Foreign Minister Ribbentrop, it is known that in the leadership of Germany there has been a discussion of an invasion of the USSR. The date has been provisionally set for May 15th. Preparation for the aggression will be masked as large-scale preparations for a decisive blow against England.’’
On April 17, 1941 the RU legal resident in Prague forwarded this report from a source in the Skoda firm who was said to have cooperated with the RU out of patriotism following the occupation of his country: ‘‘The German high command has ordered an immediate halt to the manufacture of Soviet heavy armaments at the Skoda plants. Senior German officers stationed in Czechoslovakia have told friends that German divisions are concentrating on the western borders of the USSR. It is believed that Hitler will attack the USSR in the second half of June.’’ The source for the report was probably RU residency agent Vladimir Vrana, who was employed in the export division of Skoda soon after the occupation by the Germans.
What Stalin Knew: The Enigma of Barbarossa
All the reports were consistent in their content, and Stalin consistently labeled them as provocations, discouraging his own intelligence services from trying to find more and better info.


User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 8753
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 21:11
Location: Poland

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1338

Post by wm » 21 Mar 2015, 00:40

michael mills wrote:It was not until a couple of days before 22 June, when the German armoured formations began to arrive on the frontier, that the Red Army commanders realised that the German invasion was imminent. In some vulnerable areas, for example in Lithuania, the Red Army began to withdraw on 21 June, but by then it was too late to re-deploy from an offensive into a defensive position.
Didn't the Soviet Army counterattack in Lithuania in the morning of 22 June, the so called Battle of Raseiniai?

Anyway what evidence there is the Red Army was deployed for offensive operations in Lithuania?

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 19:02

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1339

Post by steverodgers801 » 21 Mar 2015, 02:25

I agree there is absolutely no ill intent in transfers so many German division to the Soviet borders, after all Hitler signed a treaty with Stalin and we know beyond a reasonable doubt that Hitler always kept his bargains.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1340

Post by ljadw » 21 Mar 2015, 09:00

"So many German divisions" : this is meaningless .


German build-up in the East :

1 may : 60 divisions : any threat for the SU ?

14 may : 72 divisions : any threat for the sU ?

5 june : 93 divisions of which 7 mobile : any threat to the SU ?

Most of the mobile divisions (12 Pz and 12 Mot ) were going to the East between 3 and 23 june.

When this was detected by the Soviets,the Stavka took measures : 9 divisions of the Urals and Siberian military districts were going West .

What could the Stavka have done more ? What could it have done earlier and why ?

As long as no mobile divisions were detected on "the border" ,there was no reason to do something .

The surprise was not the German attack,but the speed of this attack : as the Russian/Soviet war preparations took a very long time, the Soviets thought that it woud be the same for the Germans and that meanwhile they would have time to prepare themselves .

Why should the Soviet leadership take decisions founded on an information based on " an individual in the circle of persons close to von Ribbentrop "?

If on 14 april 2001,the FBI received an information from an agent ,saying that following someone close to the number 2 of Al Quaida, there would be a terrorist attack against the US in the month of may,what woud do the FBI with such information? And,given that there would be no attack in may,what would be the credibility of the FBI informer in the month of june ?

Omeganian
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 02 Jan 2012, 17:53

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1341

Post by Omeganian » 21 Mar 2015, 09:32

ljadw wrote:
michael mills wrote:
In some vulnerable areas, for example in Lithuania, the Red Army began to withdraw on 21 June, but by then it was too late to re-deploy from an offensive into a defensive position.
On 22 june 1941 the Red Army was not in an offensive position .
Forces concentrating on the tips of two bulges, while hardly any forces are located at the base of the bulges, to prevent the Germans from snapping the bulges off (which the Germans did). That's an offensive position.

BTW, concerning what Stalin knew. Mark Solonin keeps pointing out that, for some reason, the Soviets believed Germany has around 10,000 tanks (the January games had 3,512 German tanks just on the northern direction), with the amounts of other forces exaggerated as well. Might have had something to do with assuming Hitler would have militarized his economy as much as Stalin had. Naturally, when Stalin received the somewhat more accurate reports about what the Germans had on the Soviet border, he refused to believe they were getting serious.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 8753
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 21:11
Location: Poland

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1342

Post by wm » 21 Mar 2015, 13:45

ljadw wrote:What could the Stavka have done more ? What could it have done earlier and why ?
Not this:
Sometime in early June I decided to try again to convince Stalin of the accuracy of the intelligence reports on the approaching danger.

Until then Stalin had turned aside similar reports by the chief of the general staff. . . . Defense Commissar Timoshenko and I brought along staff maps with the locations of enemy troops entered on them. I made the report. Stalin listened attentively but remained silent. After the report he sent us away without giving us his opinion. . . .

A few days passed and Stalin called for me. . . . He opened a case on his desk and took out several sheets of paper. ‘‘Read,’’ said Stalin. . . . It was a letter from Stalin to Hitler in which he briefly outlined his concern over the German deployments, about which I had reported a few days earlier. . . . Stalin then said, ‘‘Here is the answer. Read it.’’ I am afraid that after so many years I cannot exactly reproduce Hitler’s words. But this I do remember precisely: . . .
I read the TASS communiqué in the June 14 issue of Pravda and in it, to my amazement, I discovered the same words I had read in Hitler’s letter to Stalin in Stalin’s office. That is, in this Soviet document, I found printed Hitler’s very arguments.
Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov
The reports were consistent and from high placed sources. The Soviet Intelligence had proved itself many times already as the best there was (for example by delivering the text of The Anti-Comintern Pact to Stalin well before it was announced), usually thanks to the large number of fellow travelers.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 8753
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 21:11
Location: Poland

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1343

Post by wm » 21 Mar 2015, 13:54

Omeganian wrote:Forces concentrating on the tips of two bulges, while hardly any forces are located at the base of the bulges, to prevent the Germans from snapping the bulges off (which the Germans did). That's an offensive position.
A very good defensive position, at least according to what I was taught in the Army. Although the communists had been no more, they still were teaching there the good, old-but-proved tactics - essentially, static defenses were for losers.
Last edited by wm on 21 Mar 2015, 16:08, edited 1 time in total.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1344

Post by ljadw » 21 Mar 2015, 14:31

On 22 june the situation was the following : the Soviets had 170 divisions in the western miitary districts (Leningrad not included) with a strength of 2.9 million (other sources give a strength of 2 million):this was to low for a big attack on Germany .

These divisions were divided as following:

A) the first operative group with 56 infantry and 2 cavalry divisions,located in a depth till 50 km of the border


B) the second operative group (almost all the mobile divisions),located in a depth till 250 km of the border :52 divisions


C) the frontreserves : 62 divisions

For the Red Army to be in an offensive position,the second operative group (=the mobile divisions) should have been on the border,they were not ,and thus the Red Army was NOT in an offensive position :mobile divisions who were located more than 100 km from the border did not constituate a danger for Germany .

One does not attack with infantry followed by mobile divisions more than 100 km away ( = a time span of a week).In may 1940,the German mobile divisions were not located in Berlin but on the western border .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15589
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1345

Post by ljadw » 21 Mar 2015, 14:38

wm wrote:
ljadw wrote:What could the Stavka have done more ? What could it have done earlier and why ?
Not this:
Sometime in early June I decided to try again to convince Stalin of the accuracy of the intelligence reports on the approaching danger.

Until then Stalin had turned aside similar reports by the chief of the general staff. . . . Defense Commissar Timoshenko and I brought along staff maps with the locations of enemy troops entered on them. I made the report. Stalin listened attentively but remained silent. After the report he sent us away without giving us his opinion. . . .

A few days passed and Stalin called for me. . . . He opened a case on his desk and took out several sheets of paper. ‘‘Read,’’ said Stalin. . . . It was a letter from Stalin to Hitler in which he briefly outlined his concern over the German deployments, about which I had reported a few days earlier. . . . Stalin then said, ‘‘Here is the answer. Read it.’’ I am afraid that after so many years I cannot exactly reproduce Hitler’s words. But this I do remember precisely: . . .
I read the TASS communiqué in the June 14 issue of Pravda and in it, to my amazement, I discovered the same words I had read in Hitler’s letter to Stalin in Stalin’s office. That is, in this Soviet document, I found printed Hitler’s very arguments.
Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov
The reports were consistent and from high placed sources. The Soviet Intelligence had proved itself many times already as the best there was (for example by delivering the text of The Anti-Comintern Pact to Stalin well before it was announced), usually thanks to the large number of fellow travelers.
There is NO proof that these letters existed : not for Stalin's letter to Hitler,not for Hitler's answer .Nobody has been able to produce the text of these letters .

Omeganian
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 02 Jan 2012, 17:53

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1346

Post by Omeganian » 21 Mar 2015, 18:17

wm wrote:
Omeganian wrote:Forces concentrating on the tips of two bulges, while hardly any forces are located at the base of the bulges, to prevent the Germans from snapping the bulges off (which the Germans did). That's an offensive position.
A very good defensive position, at least according to what I was taught in the Army.
How, in the "Offense is the best defense" way?
ljadw wrote:One does not attack with infantry followed by mobile divisions more than 100 km away ( = a time span of a week).In may 1940,the German mobile divisions were not located in Berlin but on the western border .
And in the beginning of June?

User avatar
Appleknocker27
Member
Posts: 648
Joined: 05 Jun 2007, 18:11
Location: US/Europe

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1347

Post by Appleknocker27 » 21 Mar 2015, 18:38

steverodgers801 wrote:Apple, rote Kapelle was in service and run by the GRU before the start of Barbarossa. Its information came from the Todt organization among others and included troop movement and construction, of which the facilities being built in Poland for Barbarossa. The fact that the Nazi's told the Soviets the movement was to get troops away from the impending invasion of Britain clearly demonstrates Stalin was receiving info. A recon plane crashed landed and the crew and their photographic work were captured. Stalin returned them and continued to prohibit the firing on of recon flights. Unless you can show documentary evidence that Stalin received no info what so ever and are willing to challenge accepted history, then its absurd to make such a claim
The key point is that whatever Intel the Soviets had failed to have any tangible effect upon their base assumptions that underlay their planning process. The Intel wasn't good enough for Soviet leadership to make the proper decisions, thus it was no better than German Intel and assumptions based upon it. That is very clear as Barbarossa played out.

To anyone convinced the Red Army had the capacity to conduct strategic offensive operations in 1941, they need to look at the formations in the Western districts a little closer. These formations weren't going to be capable of that feat until the following year, and still likely not very good.

User avatar
wm
Member
Posts: 8753
Joined: 29 Dec 2006, 21:11
Location: Poland

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1348

Post by wm » 21 Mar 2015, 19:58

Appleknocker27 wrote: The Intel wasn't good enough for Soviet leadership to make the proper decisions, thus it was no better than German Intel and assumptions based upon it.
Or the Soviet leadership wasn't good enough for that Intel. :)

Stalin simply liked the post-fall-of-France Europe much better than its earlier version.
As he explained to Stafford Cripps in June 1940, why he was not going to do anything for the British, he says it's not true that Britain is fighting to maintain a balance of power, the proper balance of power has been created by the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact and the fall of France:
[He] wanted to change the old equilibrium in Europe, which worked against the USSR As the [negotiations with London and Paris for a triple alliance] showed, the British and French did not want to meet us halfway on this question. This served to bring about a rapprochement between Germany and the USSR....If the issue is the restoration of equilibrium, including the establishment of a balance in relation to the USSR, then we have to say that we cannot agree with this.
[It is] premature to speak of German domination of Europe. The defeat of France did not signify such domination. Such domination over Europe by Germany would require German domination of the seas, and that was hardly possible....In all his meetings with German representatives, he had noted no desire for German domination of the world...he did not deny that among the National Socialists there were those who spoke of German domination of the world. But...in Germany, there are intelligent people who understand that Germany does not have the power to dominate the world?
Geoffrey Roberts, Stalin's Wartime Vision of the Peace, 1939-1945.
Omeganian wrote:How, in the "Offense is the best defense" way?
Something like that, yielding the initiative to the enemy is the most likely cause for defeat, so defense (and mountain warfare) should be avoided at all cost.

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 19:02

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1349

Post by steverodgers801 » 21 Mar 2015, 20:28

It doesn't matter how good the intel was only because Stalin wasn't willing to listen to any intel that did not fit his assumptions. Its no different then Hitler and his refusal to listen to news he didn't like.

User avatar
Appleknocker27
Member
Posts: 648
Joined: 05 Jun 2007, 18:11
Location: US/Europe

Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#1350

Post by Appleknocker27 » 23 Mar 2015, 18:55

The planning assumptions I'm referring to are that the Red Army operational plans all started with Red Army forces on alert, at full supply and fully mobilized. There was no contingency for surprise. Does anyone see the issue there?
Also, the state of Red Army forces in the Western Military districts was such that there was no way those formations could be brought to a semblence of readiness to conduct large scale combat operations successfully in 1941. Clearly the plans in place did not reflect reality. I hope that puts this topic in overall perspective.

Locked

Return to “WW2 in Eastern Europe”