Was the Soviet Union preparing to attack Germany?

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paspartoo
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#901

Post by paspartoo » 06 Feb 2013, 09:29

Andy Syl wrote:
paspartoo wrote: guess what it was the same for the rest of the war.
No, it wasn't. Here are the technical losses for 3 soviet tank armies during the Soviet counter-offensives

1 Tank Army (3-31 august 1943): 706 losses from combat damage, 334 from technical disrepair
3 Guards Tank Army (19-30 July 1943): 606 losses from combat damage, 35 from technical disrepair
4 Tank Army (15 July - 31 August 1943): 1,189 losses from combat damage, 80 from technical disrepair

Source: Glantz, Battle of Kursk
Check 'T-34/85 Medium Tank 1944-45’ by Zaloga for an American evaluation of a T-34/85, this Aberdeen evaluation of a T-34/76 http://english.battlefield.ru/evaluatio ... v-dp1.html, for German use of T-34 and problems encountered ‘Panzer Tracts no. 19-2: Beute-panzerkampfwagen’ and ‘Tankovy udar. Sovetskie tanki v boyakh. 1942-1943’ for general information on the T-34 reliability.

During the war the T-34 only lasted for a few days and the Soviets were satisfied that its service life while low was higher than the life at the front.
steverodgers801 wrote:Okay, what are your credentials that you know more then Glantz who spent 20 some years studying the war, speaks fluent Russian, has read the original material and was a trained officer. .
That’s an argument? I’m going to trust a SOCIAL scientist because he spent x numbers of years ‘studying’? Did he learn in those years not to use Soviet figures for German losses? No? Guess it must have slipped his mind…

Social sciences are not real science mate.
A simple economist with an unhealthy interest in military and intelligence history.....
http://chris-intel-corner.blogspot.com/

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Marcus
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#902

Post by Marcus » 06 Feb 2013, 09:34

An uncivil post by Andy Syl was removed.

/Marcus


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1st Cavalry
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#903

Post by 1st Cavalry » 06 Feb 2013, 09:38

Andy Syl wrote: Are you trolling me? Kursk was deliberately chosen for a defensive battle and, as such, heavily fortified, with the some of the best units placed at the base of the salient.
Nothing of the sort occurred in the Bialystok salient.
Moreso, at Kursk, none of the soviet mobile forces were placed in the tip of the salient. Both were placed at the base of the salient, 1 Tank Army in the first line of defense, the 2 Tank Army close to the 13 Army to act as a mobile reserve.
In contrast, the most powerful mobile force in the Bialystok area, 6th mechanized corps, which was basically the size of a Tank Army during the war, was hidden in the woods near Bialystok, in the tip of the salient.

Did you even look at the map ? among the defensive measures that did not happen is the construction of 4 fortified regions UR 62, UR -64 , UR-66, UR-68 perhaps ?
Tip of the salient ? :) there are at least 100 km from Bialystok to the border in any direction , because it is right in the center .

Andy Syl wrote: Do you presume that if those 21 divisions moved forward, the rest of the Western Front would stay still?
Last I checked, the Western Front had 4 armies and several others were moving westwards to act as reserve (those which blocked the German advance for one month at Smolensk).
No I presume the minute they even try ,those 2 tank groupings on the flanks would slice the salient up .

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1st Cavalry
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#904

Post by 1st Cavalry » 06 Feb 2013, 10:33

Andy Syl wrote: Not "percents". Actual figures.
Very well , a 1941 tank division suppose to have at 100 %

77 cars and pickups .
38 ambulances
340 light trucks
778 medium trucks
57 mobile repair trucks
40 heavy tractor
40 medium tractor
381 motorcycle
141 fuel trucks
279 other

briefly 2228 motor vehicles and 381 motorcycles .

A German tank division with half the armor suppose to have roughly the same (2500+ 470 ).

Omeganian
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#905

Post by Omeganian » 06 Feb 2013, 15:11

steverodgers801 wrote:As far as repair, since the Soviets wereretreating, tanks could not easily get to their repair stations. there was also a lack of maintainance and when tanks broke down they were just abandonded.
According to the Soviet doctrine, during a fast offensive broken down tanks were supposed to be pulled off the road and abandoned.

steverodgers801
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#906

Post by steverodgers801 » 06 Feb 2013, 16:44

but they were not in offensive mode, and the intent was repair teams would come by and fix them. because the Soviets were retreating tanks abandonded were captured.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#907

Post by Andy Syl » 06 Feb 2013, 20:39

1st Cavalry wrote:
No I presume the minute they even try ,those 2 tank groupings on the flanks would slice the salient up .
When the germans launched Barbarossa, several things happened:

1. The Luftwaffe subjected the soviet airfields to a massive surprise attack, destroying at least 1,500 aircraft in the first day alone. The Western Front alone lost 700 out of 1,800 aircraft. As a result, the strength of the soviet air force was greatly diminished due to losses of aircraft, pilots and damage to the infrastructure. This put the Soviet Air Force on the defensive and by 1 July the air strength of the Western Front alone had diminished to around 400 aircraft.

The success of the German "slicing" maneuver depended heavily on adequate air support, both in France in 1940 and in Russia in 1941.
According to soviet regulations, the minute "they even try" a surprise attack, this should have been accompanied by a similar raid on enemy airfields. In such a case, not only that the Germans would not have had the benefit of the first strike, but the situations would have been reversed.
Even assuming that a soviet first strike would have caused less damage than the german one did, it would have put the Luftwaffe on the defensive against an enemy which had numerical superiority. Increasing the German problems would have been the fact that the number of aircraft and the quality of the crews were less than in May 1940 due to the losses they had suffered in the last year of war.
As such, there can be serious doubts as to how much support could have Luftwaffe provided in such circumstances to their ground troops, as it is to be expected for them to have their hands full trying to repel the soviet air attacks. On the Eastern Front, Luftwaffe had around 1,500 bombers and 1,000 fighters. The number was so insufficient for all its tasks, that, even the first strike, with a crippled soviet air force, there were many instances when the german planes had to ignore targets of opportunity, simply because it didn't have enough assets to cope.

2. When we discussed about the Sedan breakthrough, there were mentioned those other five infantry armies. It has to be considered though that the Allied forces in the West did not make even a single attempt to hinder to german build up and deployment. Thus, the Wehrmacht could pick the most convenient moment.
When Barbarossa occured, the full deployment was not over. The Western front had 3 armies in the first line and one in reserves, but several others from the reserve were moving westward and not to admire the scenery.
In order to slice the salient in retaliation to a soviet attack, the german forces would have had to pierce through the defense of the 3d and 4th Soviet Armies AND several others reserve armies, which would have been in place, and do that with less air support than they had during the opening of Barbarossa.
And in order to prevent the pincing of the salient, the soviet forces from the bases of the bulge were not even required to fight a mobile battle, which was so often claimed they were incapable to do. Static defence would have been enough.
And, btw, the Soviet build up and deployment was not finished on 22 june, but it went on at a frantic pace.

3. In case of a soviet attack, the soviet command would have not been thrown into such confusion as it did. The troops and the commanders would not have been told "not to answer provocation" under penalty of death, nor would they have received the flurry of contradictory orders which they did in the first days of war.
Here is an example. Fortunately, I managed to find some data on that 32 Tank Division, whose commander, col. Pushkin, was complaining afterwards about the poor state of his division.
On 23 June, the Division was ordered that, together with 8 Tank Division and 81 Motorized Division, to encircle and destroy the enemy from its area. During the march, at 10 AM, the division received a second mission - to destroy the enemy tanks from the area of the town Mosty Velke. The division had to make an 180 degrees turn, but it found no enemy tanks at Mosty Velke. At 5 PM, there was a new order, to destroy 300 enemy tanks and airborne units at Kamenka Strumilova. The division started to carry out the order, but it found no enemy at Kamenka Strumilova.
And that was not the end of it. In 3 days, the 32 Tank Division had to march around 350 km without any stops for rest or maintenance.
Pushkin complained later on that "tanks drivers were untrained, and it had only 22 percent of its required transport, 13 percent of its repair facilities, 2 percent of its required reserve supplies, 30 percent of its radios and 50 percent of its engineer support" and thus lost 307 tanks out of 361.
Even if he had 100% of everything, how on earth could the division have been anything else than worn out after all this?
We know enough about what occurred in the Soviet higher echelons to realize that the German invasion utterly shocked and bamboozled the Soviet high command, from Stalin down. This were the effects in the field.

ljadw
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#908

Post by ljadw » 06 Feb 2013, 21:35

This is irrelevant for the question if the SU was preparing to attack Germany (implying it could attack Germany with succes):the answer on both questions is NO.

only the fanbois are saying :YES.

steverodgers801
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#909

Post by steverodgers801 » 06 Feb 2013, 21:39

One major problem with the idea of a SPviet attack was Stalin was not a gambler like Hitler. Stalin wanted to attack when he felt the Soviet army was fully ready and Germany was exhausted. I contend that the forward troop placement was a warning to Hitler that the Soviets were ready to fight if need be not a preperation for an attack in 1941.

ljadw
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#910

Post by ljadw » 06 Feb 2013, 23:12

THere was nothing special on the forward troop placing :already years before the war,the Soviet military doctrine stipulated that ,if attacked,the Red Army immediately would counter-attack and wage war on the territory of the enemy .
And,BTW ,most Soviet units were stationed inwards,not on the border .

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LWD
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#911

Post by LWD » 07 Feb 2013, 00:33

steverodgers801 wrote:One major problem with the idea of a SPviet attack was Stalin was not a gambler like Hitler. Stalin wanted to attack when he felt the Soviet army was fully ready and Germany was exhausted. ....
Indeed Stalin seems to have been a true believer in the Soviet system. I suspect he really believed that given time they would prevail. At the same time he realized the USSR couldn't stand up to the West. Thus is rejection of Trotsky's ideas and his careful acquisitons. Note for instance that he never did declare war on Poland and infact claimed to be helping.

Andy Syl
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#912

Post by Andy Syl » 07 Feb 2013, 01:33

LWD wrote:
steverodgers801 wrote:One major problem with the idea of a SPviet attack was Stalin was not a gambler like Hitler. Stalin wanted to attack when he felt the Soviet army was fully ready and Germany was exhausted. ....
Indeed Stalin seems to have been a true believer in the Soviet system. I suspect he really believed that given time they would prevail. At the same time he realized the USSR couldn't stand up to the West. Thus is rejection of Trotsky's ideas and his careful acquisitons. Note for instance that he never did declare war on Poland and infact claimed to be helping.
Well, I think Stalin understood that it was dangerous for the USSR to act as am open aggressor. In regard for his pretense with respect to Poland, Stalin clearly did not want to antagonize Britain/France and (maybe) push them towards an understanding with Germany, as the continuation of the war between Hitler and the Allies was profitable for the Red Army.

As for waiting until the "Red Army was fully ready", that might be so, but you have to consider the following: while, from a military point of view, I am of the opinion that the best moment for a soviet attack would have been spring 1942, from a political point of view, whis waiting presented the risk that the UK would get tired of war and accept an agreement with Germany. Hitler made repeated overtures in this direction and only British intransigence led to their rejection. If that happened, then 2 things would have occurred:

1. The British Fleet would have ceased to blockade Germany, which would have gained access to the world markets again and thus the possibility to get the raw materials it lacked;

2. Germany could have directed the resources allocated to the naval and air war against Britain for use in the East.

The Hess flight from May 1941 did cause some anxiety in Moscow. So, the Red Army being "fully ready" or not, was it really worth the wait?

KDF33
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#913

Post by KDF33 » 07 Feb 2013, 02:03

Hello Andy,

Just to be clear: are you arguing that Stalin was preparing to attack Germany?

Andy Syl
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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#914

Post by Andy Syl » 07 Feb 2013, 04:57

KDF33 wrote:Hello Andy,

Just to be clear: are you arguing that Stalin was preparing to attack Germany?
No. I am gathering, confronting and examining all the information I can get my hands on and see how they fit.

To say that "I am arguing that Stalin was preparing to attack Germany" is too much said, because I don't have direct access to the primary sources, which would be a must (I don't speak Russian, for instance).

But from all the information I gathered, it seems to be quite plausible that a Soviet attack was prepared for the second half of 1941 or beginning of 1942, at the latest.

That does not mean I see this possibility as set in stone, but I dislike receiving vague statements and pontifications, because they can't really be examined. There is nothing I can do with statements like "The Red Army in summer of 1941 was not a very capable force in anything other than static defense supported by rail".

To give an example what I mean, the case of the infamous argument about the insufficience of tow-tractors in the Red Army. It was always expressed in percents, and the only time when I manage to find actual figures, it seemed to point out that the respective percents were misleading, as they were based on excessive demands of the soviet MTOE. Maybe it is not so and there is something I miss, but, in that case, alternative figures should be provided. Figures are better than percents in my opinion, and to try to counter the former with the latter (or worse, with pontifications) does nothing else than turn the inquiry full circle.

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Re: Was Soviet Union preparing to attack the Germany?

#915

Post by KDF33 » 07 Feb 2013, 07:18

What additional forces did the Soviets intend to deploy on the German borders in late 1941 - early 1942? Because at the time of Barbarossa, the German forces outnumbered the Soviets 3-to-2 on the frontier, and the combined Axis forces held a truly massive numerical advantage.

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