Soviet vs. German losses in WWII

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Kunikov
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Soviet vs. German losses in WWII

#1

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 06:01

I've just finished "Barbarossa" by Erickson and found the last chapter quite illuminating. Erickson deals with the various losses by the two powers, here are some of the 'highlights' which I thought were rather excellent in revealing how wrongly people often perceive Soviet losses when compared to German:
"The figure for total loss - 11,444,100 - must be adjusted downwards, since 1,836,000 prisoners of war returned to the Soviet Union and 939,700 men previously accounted missing or prisoners were inducted in liberated territories - 2,775,700 men in all. Thus the total loss properly adjusted becomes 8,668,400." The figure being originally used (11,444,100) is from a Soviet article in "Krasnaya Zvezda." pg. 261
"A number of Soviet sources settled for a figure of 'about a million' for losses in the 'satellite armies' and thus arrived at a 'total loss' figure for German - Axis forces of 7,051,000 (6,046,000 German losses plus 1,005,000 'satellite' losses). To the Red Army casualty list should also be added the figures for those national units fighting with the Red Army, numbering 47,000: 13,900 Poles, up to 11,000 in the Czechoslovak Corps, up to 15,000 Romanian and 7,000 Bulgarians." pg. 269
Adding 47,000 to 8,668,400 we come to the number 8,715,400 and 7,051,000 for German+allies losses, a ratio somewhat over 1:1, but nowhere near the 10:1 that we often hear about. What isn't listed are all the Hiwis, etc, which were also part of the German Army and their losses. Also, I found this interesting:
"The German files Panzer-Verluste Ost compiled by Fremde Heere Ost (IIc), in a report for 26 January 1944 summarising Feindliche Panzer-Verluste 1941-1943, tabulated troop after-action 'reported losses' with confirmed loss. The figure for Soviet tank losses in 1941 was 22,000 (with only the smallest discrepancy between the two figures, 246). For 1942 the figure of actual loss was 16,200 (compared to a 'reported loss' of 21,367). In 1943 actual loss was 17,300 (as opposed to a 'reported loss' of 34,659!). For the period 1941-3, German intelligence arrived at a figure of 55,300 Soviet tanks destroyed (compared to a 'reported loss' of 78,272, much of it attributed to 20-50 per cent double-counting)." pg. 268 Kirovhseev supplies Soviet tank losses as '20,500 in 1941, 15,100 in 1942, 23,500 in 1943." I'd be careful with German 'tank counting' after seeing this.

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#2

Post by Karri » 02 Oct 2005, 11:59

Where did he get the 6 million german losses? I've never seen such a figure. And does it also include those that didn't die in the Eastern Front? Then why aren't the rest of the allied losses factored in?


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#3

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 12:04

Mueller-Hillebrand in Das Heer estimates that the totality of German military dead was around 4 million. That is for all fronts, the whole war and includes ca. 2m missing presumed dead (almost all of these in the east).

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#4

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 17:00

That was the only number I wasn't sure of, and he doesn't go into detail about it. I'm afraid to say that he might have used a Soviet estimate, Andreas, is there a breakdown of those numbers? At least for the killed, out of 4 how many were on the Eastern Front? Also I should mention this from the chapter:
"Colonel-General Kirosheyev fixes 4,559,000 as the most likely realistic figure for Soviet personnel taken prisoner or missing in action, though German army figures quoted by Colonel Eliseyev and Lieutenant-Colonel Mikhalev set the total of Soviet prisoners of war on 1 February 1945 at 5,734,580, with the proviso that this larger number may be due to the inclusion of partisans and even civilians made prisoners by German army units." pg. 270 I also found it interesting from June 22nd until January 31 1942 280,108 POW's were freed by the Germans to return to their homes, 270,095 were Ukrainians and none of the rest were Russians.

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#5

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 17:28

Not for the whole war, due to the breakdown in reporting from late 1944. From June 1941 to 30/11/44, the Heer suffered 1,419,728 KIA and 997,056 WIA in the war with the Soviet Union. To this you have to add losses of the air force other than air force ground troops I guess, and those of the Kriegsmarine (negligible I would guess). It is all very uncertain due to the problems of book-keeping in 1945, and the uncertainty about the fate of those missing in the east. If I read MH correctly, you can probably add another million or so to the aforementioned figures, and assume that the million listed as MIA to 30/11/44 are all actually dead (that would give you about a million returned from POW), and then you arrive somewhere near the upper boundary of those KIA in the east. Around 3.5m, or close to 90% of those killed.

Qvist maybe able to provide better figures, he has thought more about this than I have.

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#6

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 17:31

Andreas wrote:Not for the whole war, due to the breakdown in reporting from late 1944. From June 1941 to 30/11/44, the Heer suffered 1,419,728 KIA and 997,056 WIA in the war with the Soviet Union. To this you have to add losses of the air force other than air force ground troops I guess, and those of the Kriegsmarine (negligible I would guess). It is all very uncertain due to the problems of book-keeping in 1945, and the uncertainty about the fate of those missing in the east. If I read MH correctly, you can probably add another million or so to the aforementioned figures, and assume that the million listed as MIA to 30/11/44 are all actually dead (that would give you about a million returned from POW), and then you arrive somewhere near the upper boundary of those KIA in the east. Around 3.5m, or close to 90% of those killed.

Qvist maybe able to provide better figures, he has thought more about this than I have.

All the best

Andreas
Personally I'd think the number higher, but does this number include all the 'eastern legions' fighting with the German Army? Even taking the minimum, 3.5 and adding 1 million for allies, 4.5 is still less than a 2:1 kill ratio for the East, although I'd think it closer to 1.5:1.

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#7

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 18:24

Kunikov wrote:Personally I'd think the number higher,
Why?
Kunikov wrote:but does this number include all the 'eastern legions' fighting with the German Army?
I don't think so, but can't say whether it does or not for certain.
Kunikov wrote: Even taking the minimum, 3.5 and adding 1 million for allies,
Where does that 1m come from? I mean, yes I know it is from that article, but what is it based on? I think 1m losses of the allied armies seems quite high. The biggest desaster that I can think of that struck Germany's allies in the east was Stalingrad. There the Romanians lost 140,000 KIA/MIA/WIA, according to Axworthy, and the Hungarian 2nd Army 100,000 KIA and 60,000 MIA. say between them that makes 200,000 KIA. Where do the other 800,000 come from?
Kunikov wrote:4.5 is still less than a 2:1 kill ratio for the East, although I'd think it closer to 1.5:1.
I don't understand the point of this analysis.

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#8

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 18:28

Andreas wrote:
Why?
I'd compare operations in 1945 in Germany to those in 1941 on the Eastern Front, mass confusion for the Germans and mass firepower for the Red Army, accounting of dead breaks down, and personally I'd say it was over 1 million. But I haven't counted them, so I'll use 3.5 million.


Where does that 1m come from? I mean, yes I know it is from that article, but what is it based on? I think 1m losses of the allied armies seems quite high. The biggest desaster that I can think of that struck Germany's allies in the east was Stalingrad. There the Romanians lost 140,000 KIA/MIA/WIA, according to Axworthy, and the Hungarian 2nd Army 100,000 KIA and 60,000 MIA. say between them that makes 200,000 KIA. Where do the other 800,000 come from?
"...numbers are in the region of half a million for Romanians, 350,000 for Hungarians, and 90,000 for the Finns and Italians."
Kunikov wrote:
I don't understand the point of this analysis.
To show that the ratio was in fact under 2:1 if the minimum numbers are taken for Germans and their allies, simply to show that the Red Army was not as 'worthless' as many seem to think.

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#9

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 18:45

Kunikov wrote:I'd compare operations in 1945 in Germany to those in 1941 on the Eastern Front, mass confusion for the Germans and mass firepower for the Red Army, accounting of dead breaks down, and personally I'd say it was over 1 million. But I haven't counted them, so I'll use 3.5 million.
I am already counting 2 million for 1945, which is the upper boundary given by MH.
Kunikov wrote: "...numbers are in the region of half a million for Romanians, 350,000 for Hungarians, and 90,000 for the Finns and Italians."
Yes, and I just said that in the worst desasters, Romanians and Hungarians together had at most 200,000 KIA. Where do the other 650,000 come from? I don't buy it. Unless these are in fact total losses (KIA/MIA/POW), in which case you need to readjust your Soviet numbers (see below).
Kunikov wrote:To show that the ratio was in fact under 2:1 if the minimum numbers are taken for Germans and their allies, simply to show that the Red Army was not as 'worthless' as many seem to think.
In that case it is pointless, since it includes (on both sides) large numbers of killed who were not killed during military operations. For a comparison of military effectiveness, you are using the wrong numbers. If that is what you are after, you need to count irrecoverable losses, which means no revising downward of the Soviet loss figure for returned POWs, and inclusion of wounded who were invalided out.

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#10

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 19:10

Andreas wrote: I am already counting 2 million for 1945, which is the upper boundary given by MH.
Well, you are counting 2 million KIA including the MIA's? Also, what is the number of MIA's for earlier years on the Eastern Front? Are all of them known to have been POW's, or are some of them counted in KIA or neither? By the way, here is info coming out of Kirovsyeev's book, which I think is where Erickson got some of his numbers from:
"According to the German COmmand's calculations, casualties for the period 1 January - 30 April 1945..." are Killed, 250,000 for Army and SS, 10,000 for Air force, and 5,000 for Navy. MIA and POW 1 million for Army and SS troops, 7,000 for Air Force and 5,000 for Navy. "The accuracy of their calculations is doubtful, however. First they do not include losses in compbat operations between 1 and 11 may; secondly, the calculations were based on average monthly losses over a three-month period in 1944, which could not possibly be the same as 1945 losses; and thirdly, they contradict figures from the headquarters of the German Armed Forces High command published in B. Muller-Hillebrand's work, where on page 328 it states that there were about 1,900,000 killed and missing, not 1,277,000 as indicted in table 101 [which I described - kunikov].
Let us now examine another document from the Wehrmacht's casualty records department which was written after hostilities had ceased. A radio-telegram to the OKW quartermaster-general dated 22 may 1945 contains the following information: In answer to the radio telegram from the OKW quartermaster-general, No 82/266 of 18 May 1945, I hereby inform you:
1. (a) Killed in action, including 500,000 deaths from wounds: 2.03 million. In addition, died as a result of accidents or disease: 200,000.
(b) Wounded: 5.24 million
(c) Missing in action: 2.4 million
Total losses: 9.73 million"
POW's taken by the Soviet Union amounted to 3,777,290, of which 2,389,560 were Germans, 156,682 were Austrians, 513,767 Hungarians, 201,800 Romanians, 48,957 Italians, and 2,377 Finns. The remaining 464,147 were French, Slovaks, Czechs, Belgians, Spaniards, etc. who had previously served in the WEhrmacht or worked in service installations or logistical servies.
Continuing:
"An analysis of various archive documents and Soviet overseas publications giving war losses for World War II shows that total German armed forces casualties came to 13,448,000, which was 75.1% of the number mobilised during the war, or 46% of the entire male population of Germany in 1939 including Austria. Their irrecoverable losses on the German -Soviet front came to 6,923,700.
Germany's allies (Hungary, Italy, Romania and Finland) lost 1,725,800 fighting the Soviet Union." Losses for German allies are:
Hungary: Killed 863,700
Italy: Killed 93,900
Romania: Killed 681,800
Finland: Killed 86,400
Truthfully I'm not sure if this includes died of wounds, but this is all out of Krivosheev's book.
Yes, and I just said that in the worst desasters, Romanians and Hungarians together had at most 200,000 KIA. Where do the other 650,000 come from? I don't buy it. Unless these are in fact total losses (KIA/MIA/POW), in which case you need to readjust your Soviet numbers (see below).
Well, hopefully the above will be of some help. Romanians did fight for over 3 years with the Germans, a few operations during Stalingrad are not all their losses, check into their operations against Odessa, Crimea, etc.
In that case it is pointless, since it includes (on both sides) large numbers of killed who were not killed during military operations. For a comparison of military effectiveness, you are using the wrong numbers. If that is what you are after, you need to count irrecoverable losses, which means no revising downward of the Soviet loss figure for returned POWs, and inclusion of wounded who were invalided out.
And why no downward for Soviet POW's?

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#11

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 20:09

Kunikov wrote:Well, you are counting 2 million KIA including the MIA's? Also, what is the number of MIA's for earlier years on the Eastern Front? Are all of them known to have been POW's, or are some of them counted in KIA or neither?
1.5m KIA, 1m MIA until 30/11/44 - MIA is just that, they are all the POW plus an unknown number KIA. 1-2m KIA/MIA between 30/11/44 and 9/5/45. 1m Returned MIA, estimated. Total 1.5+1+2-1 equals 3.5m.
Kunikov wrote:Germany's allies (Hungary, Italy, Romania and Finland) lost 1,725,800 fighting the Soviet Union." Losses for German allies are:
Hungary: Killed 863,700
Italy: Killed 93,900
Romania: Killed 681,800
Finland: Killed 86,400
Truthfully I'm not sure if this includes died of wounds, but this is all out of Krivosheev's book.
I think these figures are quite inflated.
Kunikov wrote:Well, hopefully the above will be of some help. Romanians did fight for over 3 years with the Germans, a few operations during Stalingrad are not all their losses, check into their operations against Odessa, Crimea, etc.
I just went through Axworthy, and being generous I end up with 200,000 Romanian dead and missing, excluding Iassy-Kishinev. The biggest hits being Odessa, Crimea, and Stalingrad. That's ca. 500,000 below the Krivosheev figure. Does that include the continued war effort by Romania on the Soviet side?

The Hungarian figure in particular seems extraordinary to me.

The Finnish figure also seems high - does that include the winter war or is it just the Continuation War? Maybe someone from Finland can help?
Kunikov wrote:And why no downward for Soviet POW's?
Because they are irrecoverable in terms of the war effort.

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Andreas

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#12

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 20:12

Andreas wrote:
I think these figures are quite inflated.
Until someone presents better ones, I'll go by these.
I just went through Axworthy, and being generous I end up with 200,000 Romanian dead and missing, excluding Iassy-Kishinev. The biggest hits being Odessa, Crimea, and Stalingrad. That's ca. 500,000 below the Krivosheev figure. Does that include the continued war effort by Romania on the Soviet side?
No, I mentioned Romanian losses when fighting with the Soviets in my first post.


Because they are irrecoverable in terms of the war effort.
Then why do you subtract 1 million MIA from the Germans?

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#13

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 20:19

Kunikov wrote:Until someone presents better ones, I'll go by these.
I just did. Axworthy's figures are based on Romanian records. MH's figures are based on real loss records, and an approximation cross-checked by post-war census. Krivosheev's figures for foreign losses appear to be based on... Well maybe Soviet documents on compliance with 5-year plans, I don't know, but they have that air about them.
Kunikov wrote:Then why do you subtract 1 million MIA from the Germans?
Because you substracted 1.9m returned POW for the Soviets in your initial post.

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#14

Post by Andreas » 02 Oct 2005, 20:28

Kunikov wrote:Finland: Killed 86,400
The Finnish Defense Forces have an online database of KIA 1939-45 which appears to contain 94,000 records (http://www.mil.fi/tietokannat/index.dsp).

This includes the Winter War, Continuation War, and Lappland War. Most figures I have seen for the winter war hover between 20-25,000 KIA for the Finns. Say it is 20,000. That means the Krivosheev figure is out by almost 20%.

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#15

Post by Kunikov » 02 Oct 2005, 20:31

Andreas wrote:
I just did. Axworthy's figures are based on Romanian records. MH's figures are based on real loss records, and an approximation cross-checked by post-war census. Krivosheev's figures for foreign losses appear to be based on... Well maybe Soviet documents on compliance with 5-year plans, I don't know, but they have that air about them.
But you admit those numbers aren't for all Romanian operations.

Because you substracted 1.9m returned POW for the Soviets in your initial post.

All the best

Andreas
Well I don't have a problem with you subtracting POW's, why is it a problem for you?

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