Did Greece save Russia?

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sherlock
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Did Greece save Russia?

#1

Post by sherlock » 04 Sep 2010, 16:59

When the British halted their campaign against the Italians in North Africa and sent forces to assist the Greeks in their fight with the Italians, what long-term effects did it have on the outcome of the war? The Italians were able to maintain their foothold in North Africa, which enabled the Germans to establish a presence in the area and threaten the Middle East. The German High Command also was forced to make a decision concerning a potential threat to their southern flank in their upcoming attack on Russia. The resulting campaign in Greece didn't take long, but did it impose enough of a delay on the initiation of "Operation Barbarossa" to prevent German forces from taking Moscow that first Winter and possibly winning the war in the East?
Might as well, it don't cost nothin'-Bluto

Alanmccoubrey
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#2

Post by Alanmccoubrey » 04 Sep 2010, 18:03

Not so much Greece as the Yugoslavs. If they hadn't refused to implment their treaty with the Germans then the latter would have had free passage through their country to invade Greece. Regardless of how "easy" the Germans found invading Yugoslavia it still slowed the entire campaign down much more than Greece alone would have done.
Alan


ljadw
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#3

Post by ljadw » 04 Sep 2010, 18:44

sherlock wrote:When the British halted their campaign against the Italians in North Africa and sent forces to assist the Greeks in their fight with the Italians, what long-term effects did it have on the outcome of the war? The Italians were able to maintain their foothold in North Africa, which enabled the Germans to establish a presence in the area and threaten the Middle East. The German High Command also was forced to make a decision concerning a potential threat to their southern flank in their upcoming attack on Russia. The resulting campaign in Greece didn't take long, but did it impose enough of a delay on the initiation of "Operation Barbarossa" to prevent German forces from taking Moscow that first Winter and possibly winning the war in the East?
1)Marita (invasion of Greece) was concieved before B arbarossa
2)Barbarossa was not delayed because of Marita,or the attack on Yougoslavia,but because of the weather.
3) there is no proof (only speculation) that without the delaying of Barbarossa,the Germans could have taken Moscow before the Winter,in fact,the Germans were already defeated BEFORE the winter.
4)there is also no proof that the fall of Moscow would mean the end of the war in the East

dor1941
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#4

Post by dor1941 » 04 Sep 2010, 19:53

I agree with Ijadw.

Sherlock and Alan raised some legitimate regional strategic arguments, but the premise that an earlier start of Barbarossa would have produced the fall of Moskow in 1941 is only useful if you believe that Stalin would have surrendered to-or even seriously negotiated with-Hitler after Moskow was captured.
We can probably agree that both these men were vicious deranged animals who were prepared to sacrifice everything at their dictatorial disposal-which was considerable-to prevail. I don't believe the capture of Moskow would have ended the war in the USSR, and after December 7, 1941 the Germans were even less likely to ever achieve a decision in the East.

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Pips
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#5

Post by Pips » 05 Sep 2010, 04:48

Perhaps a more pertinent way of assessing the impact of the Yugoslav and Greek campaigns is not whether they affected Germany's ability to defeat the Soviets in 1941; but rather whether the Balkan's campaign prolonged the Western Desert campaign due to O'Connor having to halt at El Agheila on Churchill's orders. Once stripped of key fighting units the British lost all chance of driving the Italians out of Libya, perhaps even Tunisia, before the Germans became involved.

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#6

Post by dor1941 » 05 Sep 2010, 08:55

Given the title of this thread and the form of sherlock's question, I think the responses of Ijadw and myself were precisely correct and appropriate.

David R

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The_Enigma
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#7

Post by The_Enigma » 06 Sep 2010, 00:37

Pips wrote:Perhaps a more pertinent way of assessing the impact of the Yugoslav and Greek campaigns is not whether they affected Germany's ability to defeat the Soviets in 1941; but rather whether the Balkan's campaign prolonged the Western Desert campaign due to O'Connor having to halt at El Agheila on Churchill's orders. Once stripped of key fighting units the British lost all chance of driving the Italians out of Libya, perhaps even Tunisia, before the Germans became involved.
They had to halt because of supply issues, on top of which the most important unit - the 7th Armoured Division - was worn out and in dire need for refitting, rebuilding, training etc. It seems at odds with reality that the Aussies could have carried on Compass, reached Tripolii and ended the campaign in 1941.

The Italians had already started reinforceing Tripolintia (sp?) and the 7th Armour's replacement, the 2nd Armoured Division, was in completly untested in desert warfare and in need of training. Its seems rather at odds with relaity that the campaign could have carried on. So no, i do not believe the Balkans campaign extended the Desert War but prehaps without the sideshow the DAK/Italian attack could have been halted before or at Tobruk.

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#8

Post by Gooner1 » 06 Sep 2010, 18:09

From a different angle, would the Soviets still have been taken so badly by surprise if the Germans hadn't gone off and invaded Greece?

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Tim Smith
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#9

Post by Tim Smith » 06 Sep 2010, 23:28

The_Enigma wrote: They had to halt because of supply issues, on top of which the most important unit - the 7th Armoured Division - was worn out and in dire need for refitting, rebuilding, training etc. It seems at odds with reality that the Aussies could have carried on Compass, reached Tripoli and ended the campaign in 1941.
It only seems at odds with reality if you assume that the Italians would actually fight for Sirte and Tripoli. What if they don't? What if Italian morale was so bad at that time that their rearguard would have surrendered to the first handful of British tanks to arrive, without a shot being fired?

For the British, getting the entire Western Desert Force to Tripoli, before March, would have been extremely difficult and perhaps impossible logistically. But a token combined arms battlegroup of 1,000 men, including one tank battalion of about 52 light and cruiser tanks, and one infantry battalion in Universal Carriers, might make it to Tripoli. Provided the Italians don't fight back due to a complete collapse of morale, even though they have a 20 to 1 numerical superiority in their favour and local air superiority as well.

dor1941
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#10

Post by dor1941 » 07 Sep 2010, 12:59

Tim Smith wrote:
The_Enigma wrote: They had to halt because of supply issues, on top of which the most important unit - the 7th Armoured Division - was worn out and in dire need for refitting, rebuilding, training etc. It seems at odds with reality that the Aussies could have carried on Compass, reached Tripoli and ended the campaign in 1941.
It only seems at odds with reality if you assume that the Italians would actually fight for Sirte and Tripoli. What if they don't? What if Italian morale was so bad at that time that their rearguard would have surrendered to the first handful of British tanks to arrive, without a shot being fired?
Actually The Enigma understates the case regarding the British reaching Tripoli at this time-it was absolutely, unequivocally impossible, period.

Montanari (A.S., Vol. II-Tobruk, Schizzo nr. 1) shows the Italian Corpo d'Armata X with two divisions-D.f. Pavia (17ª) and D.f. Bologna (25ª)-already at Sirte on February 15th, with elements of D. cor. Ariete (132ª) close at hand. Also, Rommel had arrived in Tripoli on Feb. 12th and began sending the first arriving units of 5. leichte Division to the front, with Aufklarungs-Abteilung 3 deployed west of Sirte by the 16th. By Feb. 20th Panzerjager-Abteilung 39 had joined the Italian Corps at Sirte-and this just two weeks after Beda Fomm. Some 80 German aircraft-Ju 87 and Me 110-had arrived to supplement the 150 Italian S 79, G 50 and CR 42 immediately available. The British would require time to establish forward airfields to protect a further advance. The distance from el Agheila-the most forward British position on Feb. 15th-to Tripoli is about 500 Km.
To suggest that a force such as you describe could somehow have waded through (or intimidated into surrendering?) all these Axis troops and reached and taken Tripoli-itself more strongly held than Bardia or Tobruk had been, with an additional three Italian divisions present and more troops arriving weekly-is a joke, and a bad one at that. The advance of a larger British force would simply have taken so much more time to logistically prepare for that the impatient Rommel would have forestalled it-which of course was what actually occurred.

Rommel may have obfuscated the issue with some self-serving comments of the weakness of the remaining Italian troops after Beda Fomm, but this fiction should have been laid to rest long ago. In response to your scenario, I respectfully advise: No way, No how.
You can wargame it differently, but the facts of the operational situation are immutable.

David R
Last edited by dor1941 on 07 Sep 2010, 13:51, edited 1 time in total.

Sid Guttridge
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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#11

Post by Sid Guttridge » 07 Sep 2010, 13:26

ljadw - You write that the invasion of Greece was conceived before Barbarossa. Hitler first ordered planning to begin for an attack on the USSR in July 1940.

Did he really plan an attack on Greece even earlier?

I doubt it, but I am willing to be surprised.

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Generally, I agree that Yugoslavia had far more effect on the Germans than Greece, which was already showing signs of beginning to wilt under growing Italian pressure. Furthermore, it was Yugoslav political inconsistency, rather than its military performance, that caused the Germans to divert.

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One more thing - the Balkan Campaign was presumably very wearing on the motor vehicles used in it, and this presumably had some sort of knock-on effect on the condition of a considerable number of the mechanized formations also used in Barabarossa. Furthermore, one panzer division lost an entire battalion of tanks when the transport carrying them back from Greece up the Adriatic was sunk. On top of this Germany's only parachute formation was expended in Crete, with the result that no significant German airborne operations could be mounted in the USSR in 1941.

I am not sure that any delay was caused to the launch of Barbarossa by the Balkan Campaign, but materiel attrition may have taken some of the edge off a number of German mechanized formations later used in Barabarossa. However, I have never seen any record of German vehicle attrition in the Balkan Campaign, so I couldn't quantify this. Vehicle attrition in the USSR was very heavy. How much did the Balkan Campaign compound this? Anyone?

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#12

Post by dor1941 » 07 Sep 2010, 16:55

Scirburniensis wrote: the Balkan Campaign was presumably very wearing on the motor vehicles used in it, and this presumably had some sort of knock-on effect on the condition of a considerable number of the mechanized formations also used in Barabarossa.
Yugoslavia was overrun in 11 days in a lightning campaign primarily by the tanks and vehicles of Panzergruppe Kleist and only cost the Germans 558 casualties. Vehicle losses in combat were probably minimal, and the roads were surely better there than in Russia where only 3% were hard-surfaced. This Panzergruppe was part of Heersgruppe Sud in Barbarossa and following Yugoslavia had two months to prepare and provide maintenance for its vehicles.

Two panzer divisions-the 2nd and 5th-took part in the 3-week campaign in Greece and were heavily engaged with significant losses, but both divisions went into the OKH reserve for Barbarossa and were not committed until after the initial frontier encirclement battles in June and early July. They had even more time to rebuild and maintain their vehicle inventories.

Since the Germans employed some 600,000 vehicles for Barbarossa the vehicle losses in the Balkans should have been relatively insignificant.

David R

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#13

Post by ljadw » 07 Sep 2010, 17:21

operation Marita (weisung 20) was signed on 13 december 1940,Barbarossa on 18 december 1940.
Not the 5 days difference were important,but that the planning of Barbarossa was reckoning with the possibility of the execution of Marita .
The attack on Yugoslavia(weisung 25) on 27 march 1941 was a total improvisation,and one of the reasons for the delay of Barbarossa,the main reason for the delay being the weather.
I think it is wrong to say that there was already in july 1940 a decision to attack the SU.
Sources:
Hitler's Weisungen (Walther Hubatsch)
The relationship between the campaigns in the Balkans and the invasion of Russia.

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#14

Post by Sid Guttridge » 08 Sep 2010, 12:44

ljadw - You wrote that "Marita (invasion of Greece) was concieved before Barbarossa".

At no point did I write anything to th effect "that there was already in july 1940 a decision to attack the SU." I was addressing your word "conceived". There is no doubt that the attack on Russia was "conceived" at the latest in late June 1940, because Hitler was already talking to aides about it while still in France. Furthermore preliminary planning begun after the Berlin victory parade and promotion of the field marshals on 19 July.

P.S. A post elsewhere on AHF mentions that Hitler told a military conference on 31 July 1940 of his intentions to turn on the USSR.

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Re: Did Greece save Russia?

#15

Post by The_Enigma » 09 Sep 2010, 01:29

Tim Smith wrote:
The_Enigma wrote: They had to halt because of supply issues, on top of which the most important unit - the 7th Armoured Division - was worn out and in dire need for refitting, rebuilding, training etc. It seems at odds with reality that the Aussies could have carried on Compass, reached Tripoli and ended the campaign in 1941.
It only seems at odds with reality if you assume that the Italians would actually fight for Sirte and Tripoli. What if they don't? What if Italian morale was so bad at that time that their rearguard would have surrendered to the first handful of British tanks to arrive, without a shot being fired?

For the British, getting the entire Western Desert Force to Tripoli, before March, would have been extremely difficult and perhaps impossible logistically. But a token combined arms battlegroup of 1,000 men, including one tank battalion of about 52 light and cruiser tanks, and one infantry battalion in Universal Carriers, might make it to Tripoli. Provided the Italians don't fight back due to a complete collapse of morale, even though they have a 20 to 1 numerical superiority in their favour and local air superiority as well.
Edit: david has covered the issue of italian forces actually still being based and reinforcing their positions. Morale may have collasped but the Italians seemed to have really put in a determined effort to break through at Beda Fomm.

I however would ask did the 7th Armour even have 52 tanks left by the end of Compass? considering the division was on its last legs by the end of the operation and withdrawn to the delta. Was there even enough UC to carry such a force, the things can only carry a few men there not M5 halftracks after all. Then of course there is the issue of that force would need to be supplied and the main base was back in the Delta. Problems were cropping up pushing supplies forward, Begzahi was in range of italian bombers and no supply dumps had been estalbished in the forward area ala like they had by the time of the Axis counterattack.

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