Was CIA (un)seccesfull?

[Arto O]

Hi,
Being the intelligent service of the most powerful country during the cold war, CIA, was it really succesfull or not? For example the invasion of Bay of Pigs in Cuba, mercenary operation in Angola, the hostage rescue operation in Iran during Khomeini´s goverment etc were disasters. Which were the big succesfell operations and which not?
thanks
Arto

[wm]

Some say the CIA didn't fail in Cuba, they wanted failure:

The CIA, headed by Allen Dulles, knew that the Russians knew.
(Therefore, they knew the invasion would fail.) The leak did not come from the invasion force;
it had happened before the Cuban exiles were themselves briefed on the date. Kennedy was not
informed. Nor, of course, were the exiles. And knowing all this, Dulles ordered the operation forward.

http://web.archive.org/web/200609042014 ... mmense.pdf

In Iran the Air Force failed, not the CIA.
One of the most impressive achievements was early knowledge of the Soviet rocket and space programs, long in advance of Sputnik.

[South]

Good morning Art O,

There are numerous books discussing your question. I cannot offer recommendations.

I do want to add to the list a successful venture. Indonesia's Sarkarno and the PKI were removed from the scene. Recall the scandal when the private sector, civilian pilot (Please don't laugh) Allen Pope got shot down and his identification card was captured along with Pope. Pope was a veteran of the Korean War and fought in - actually "over" - Vietnam, airdroping supplies to the French prior to Dien Bien Phu.

Regardless of the Allen Pope event, Sarkarno was replaced and the land of the Bandung Conference reverted to the Western camp.



Warm regards,

Bob

[Arto O]

Thanks wm and South for interesting and some completely unknown facts for me.
with best regards
Arto

[LWD]

It also depends a lot on how you define success. The CIA supplied the US government and others including the public with a lot of information (some of it admittedly not all that accurate). Much of that may still be classified. However if you look at some of their products that are now available it's clear that they were quite useful. For instance I remember reading in ~1980 an analysis of the Soviet economy that was CIA but open source in the early 80's that predicted some significant issues ~1990. Enough that I was worried about conflict in that time frame instead the Soviets collapsed. If you compare against the Soviet intelligence aperatus I suspect you will find that they were better at obtaining information however I strongly suspect that the intelligence products (i.e. the analysis) may have been somewhat inferior to that of the CIA not that the latter didn't have some significant problems.

[henryk]

Another success:
CIA on Polish Cold War Hero: Kuklinski
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... 7295[quote]
•Soviet war plans: Kuklinski outlined the Soviet game plan for waging an offensive war against NATO.
•Wartime command and control arrangements: Kuklinski revealed that, in wartime, the national armies of the Warsaw Pact (with the exception of Romania) would come under direct Soviet operational control. Polish commanders would have been reduced to the status of liaison and logistics officers taking orders from Soviet superiors.
•Warning of war: Warsaw Pact planning documents and military exercises yielded insight into how the Soviets would mobilize for war. Kuklinski’s information "allowed us to develop an intimate understanding of the way they worked. It was invaluable for warning," according to a US strategic expert.39
•Project Albatross: Kuklinski had knowledge of three highly secret, deep underground bunkers the Soviets had constructed in Poland, the USSR, and Bulgaria for wartime command and control. He identified the exact location, construction, and communications systems used for the Polish complex. According to President Carter’s National Security Adviser, Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Kuklinski’s information permitted us to make counterplans to disrupt command-and-control facilities rather than only relying on a massive counterattack on forward positions, which would have hit Poland."40
•Information on some 200 advanced weapon systems and a manual on electronic warfare: Kuklinski also alerted US intelligence to a massive Soviet denial and deception program, highlighting the use of dummies and decoys to foil US satellite surveillance.
[/quote]

[Arto O]

Thanks LWD and henryk,
as you wrote LWD many documents/operations are still classified. Mostly I remember to read about CIA operations combined with military forces came from newspapers and magazines, and newspapermen love disasters. The successful operation is not necessary "interesting" to big public.
with best regards
Arto

[LWD]

Of course organizations like to keep their "disasters" quite so there's likely quite a few of those hidden in the archives as well.

[henryk]

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