Lebensraum

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michael mills
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#16

Post by michael mills » 07 Jun 2006, 02:09

Hey, I think I'm the new guy on the block so sorry if this has been posted before. What would Hitler have done had the war in the East been won? Would it have been new farmland? Or would he have built a German utopia? Thank you for any replies even if this has been talked to death on here.
Bravo,

In assessing the likely outcome of a counter-factual German victory over the Soviet Union, it is necessary to distinguish between wild euphoric dreams and hard reality.

The crucial factor on which any mass settlement of Germans on conquered territory in the East would have depended would have been the demographic development of the German people. As at 1939, there were simply not enough Germans to colonise Poland and European Russia, even including the several million ethnic Germans scattered over Eastern Europe, and any such colonisation would have depended on a massive increase in the german population, combined with successful germanisation of suitable parts of the native population.

However, the German rate of natural increase had been falling for some time, due to economic development and increasing standards of living, which invariably lead to a fall in the birthrate to below replacement level, as has occurred in all developed countries. All the efforts of the National Socialist regime to encourage an increase in the German birthrate ultimately failed.

Even the most pwerful dictator cannot make German women have babies if they do not want to.

So the bottom line was that in the event of a German victory there would simply not have been enough Germans to colonise the East, and with each passing decade there would have been fewer. That fact was well known to the experts that Himmler had assembled to draw up plans for German colonisation; they explicitly stated that their plans depended on the availability of a surplus German population ready and willing to settle in the East, and they stated their opinion that such a surplus would not be available since the expected post-war economic boom after a German victory would soak up all available labour within Germany and even suck in non-German labour from outside the country (as in fact happened in post-war West Germany). Furthermore, rising standards of living within Germany would make its population extremely unwilling to move to the dreary wastes of Russia.

The reality is that German rule in a conquered European Russia would have necessity have consisted of a small class of bureacrats dominating a brutalised peasant population tied to the land and an impoverished proletariat without freedom of movement, ie exactly the same system in force in the Soviet Union prior to the German invasion, except that the bureaucratic ruling class would have consisted of Germans assisted by members of some of the Soviet minorities, eg of the Baltic peoples, rather than of members of the Communist Party drawn from various ethnic groups but primarily Russian.

The only area that could realistically have been thoroughly germanised would have been the annexed areas of Western Poland. That could have been achieved by concentrating the ethnic German minority of Poland in that area, together with ethnic Germans brought from other parts of Eastern Europe, eg from the Baltic States, Ukraine or Romania, and germanising part of the native Polish population. But the process of concentrating ethnic Germans in Western Poland would have meant by definition reducing the ethnic German population in other parts of Eastern Europe.

The upshot is that German colonisation of the whole of Poland and the conquered Soviet territories could never have been achieved, even if Germany had won the war. In evaluating the wilder fantasies of Hitler, Himmler and others, it is necessary to determine, on the basis of observable criteria such as normal socio-economic and demographic dynamics, whether they culd ever have been achieved in reality; the answer is that they could not.

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Qvist
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#17

Post by Qvist » 07 Jun 2006, 08:34

Well, that's one opinion on that issue.

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic. ... alplan+ost


michael mills
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#18

Post by michael mills » 08 Jun 2006, 04:59

A soundly-based opinion that does not confuse realistic possibilities with utopian dreams.

It is noteworthy that the resettlement activities undertaken by German authorities in the temporarily conquered eastern territories involved reshuffling ethnic Germans, ie people who already lived outside the borders of Germany and had settled in Eastern Europe in previous centuries. The was a notable lack of enthusiasm on the part of Reich Germans to leave their comfortable homeland and settle in less developed lands.

In fact, since the 1880s the tendency had been for the population of the German territories east of the Oder to move to the more developed areas of Western and Central Germany, where standards of living were much higher. This tendency was called "Ostflucht", and by the 1930s it had resulted in a fall in the German population of East Prussia in particular.

There is no reason to believe that Ostflucht would have been reversed. Even the Baltic Germans who were evacuated from the Baltic States in 1939 and 1940 were extremely disappointed to find themselves being resettled on Polish territory rather than in the Reich itself.

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#19

Post by Qvist » 08 Jun 2006, 08:08

A soundly-based opinion that does not confuse realistic possibilities with utopian dreams.
Well, that's one opinion of that opinion. For my part I refer to the previously linked discussion. There are of course also many more in the H&WC section.

cheers

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Re:

#20

Post by Futurist » 10 Feb 2016, 13:09

michael mills wrote:
Hey, I think I'm the new guy on the block so sorry if this has been posted before. What would Hitler have done had the war in the East been won? Would it have been new farmland? Or would he have built a German utopia? Thank you for any replies even if this has been talked to death on here.
Bravo,

In assessing the likely outcome of a counter-factual German victory over the Soviet Union, it is necessary to distinguish between wild euphoric dreams and hard reality.

The crucial factor on which any mass settlement of Germans on conquered territory in the East would have depended would have been the demographic development of the German people. As at 1939, there were simply not enough Germans to colonise Poland and European Russia, even including the several million ethnic Germans scattered over Eastern Europe, and any such colonisation would have depended on a massive increase in the german population, combined with successful germanisation of suitable parts of the native population.

However, the German rate of natural increase had been falling for some time, due to economic development and increasing standards of living, which invariably lead to a fall in the birthrate to below replacement level, as has occurred in all developed countries. All the efforts of the National Socialist regime to encourage an increase in the German birthrate ultimately failed.

Even the most pwerful dictator cannot make German women have babies if they do not want to.

So the bottom line was that in the event of a German victory there would simply not have been enough Germans to colonise the East, and with each passing decade there would have been fewer. That fact was well known to the experts that Himmler had assembled to draw up plans for German colonisation; they explicitly stated that their plans depended on the availability of a surplus German population ready and willing to settle in the East, and they stated their opinion that such a surplus would not be available since the expected post-war economic boom after a German victory would soak up all available labour within Germany and even suck in non-German labour from outside the country (as in fact happened in post-war West Germany). Furthermore, rising standards of living within Germany would make its population extremely unwilling to move to the dreary wastes of Russia.

The reality is that German rule in a conquered European Russia would have necessity have consisted of a small class of bureacrats dominating a brutalised peasant population tied to the land and an impoverished proletariat without freedom of movement, ie exactly the same system in force in the Soviet Union prior to the German invasion, except that the bureaucratic ruling class would have consisted of Germans assisted by members of some of the Soviet minorities, eg of the Baltic peoples, rather than of members of the Communist Party drawn from various ethnic groups but primarily Russian.

The only area that could realistically have been thoroughly germanised would have been the annexed areas of Western Poland. That could have been achieved by concentrating the ethnic German minority of Poland in that area, together with ethnic Germans brought from other parts of Eastern Europe, eg from the Baltic States, Ukraine or Romania, and germanising part of the native Polish population. But the process of concentrating ethnic Germans in Western Poland would have meant by definition reducing the ethnic German population in other parts of Eastern Europe.

The upshot is that German colonisation of the whole of Poland and the conquered Soviet territories could never have been achieved, even if Germany had won the war. In evaluating the wilder fantasies of Hitler, Himmler and others, it is necessary to determine, on the basis of observable criteria such as normal socio-economic and demographic dynamics, whether they culd ever have been achieved in reality; the answer is that they could not.
Frankly, I am tempted to largely agree with your assessment of this situation, Michael. However, what I am wondering is if a victorious Nazi Germany would have somehow been able to raise its total fertility rate to, say, 2.5 or 3.0 children per woman per lifetime. After all, even such a total fertility rate would result in relatively large population growth over the long run; heck, just take a look at Israel in real life! (Indeed, Israel shows that it is certainly possible, albeit very rare, for a developed country to have a total fertility rate of 2.5 or more children per woman per lifetime for decades, if not longer.)

Any thoughts on this, Michael?

In addition to this, though, what I am wondering about is this--why exactly were the western parts of Germany more industrialized than the eastern parts of Germany were? Was it because a lot of Germany's natural resources were located in the western parts of Germany, or was there another reason for this?

Finally, I think that it is a good idea to view the Nazis' desire for Lebensraum in the East as being a type of nostalgia for the agricultural, pre-industrial, and expansionist experience of ethnic Germans before the 19th century or so. After all, before the start of the Industrial Revolution and the resulting Ostflucht, most ethnic German migration in Europe was directed towards the East:

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Re:

#21

Post by Futurist » 10 Feb 2016, 13:12

michael mills wrote:A soundly-based opinion that does not confuse realistic possibilities with utopian dreams.

It is noteworthy that the resettlement activities undertaken by German authorities in the temporarily conquered eastern territories involved reshuffling ethnic Germans, ie people who already lived outside the borders of Germany and had settled in Eastern Europe in previous centuries. The was a notable lack of enthusiasm on the part of Reich Germans to leave their comfortable homeland and settle in less developed lands.

In fact, since the 1880s the tendency had been for the population of the German territories east of the Oder to move to the more developed areas of Western and Central Germany, where standards of living were much higher. This tendency was called "Ostflucht", and by the 1930s it had resulted in a fall in the German population of East Prussia in particular.
Yes, all of this appears to be correct. However, this also appears to make Weimar Germany's obsession with reclaiming the Polish Corridor largely nonsensical; after all, a lot of East Prussia's population (which was less than 5% of Germany's total population to begin with!) was already moving west during this time!
There is no reason to believe that Ostflucht would have been reversed. Even the Baltic Germans who were evacuated from the Baltic States in 1939 and 1940 were extremely disappointed to find themselves being resettled on Polish territory rather than in the Reich itself.
Why exactly did this result in extreme disappointment, though? After all, didn't the Nazis plan to fully incorporate these parts of Poland into Germany proper? Indeed, to me, a good comparison to me might be having American settlers settle in newly acquired Texas, New Mexico, and/or California in the mid-19th century. :)

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Re: Lebensraum

#22

Post by Futurist » 10 Feb 2016, 13:15

Bravo wrote:Hey, I think I'm the new guy on the block so sorry if this has been posted before. What would Hitler have done had the war in the East been won? Would it have been new farmland? Or would he have built a German utopia? Thank you for any replies even if this has been talked to death on here.
In short, the Nazis' dream of a Grossdeutschland which stretched all of the way to the Ural Mountains was certainly (and thankfully) an extremely wild fantasy. However, it is probably possible that the Nazis would have gradually been able to Germanize some of their conquered territories if the Nazis would have implemented brutal Germanization policies and/or somehow managed to increase Germany's total fertility rate to at least, say, 2.5 or 3.0 children per woman per lifetime.

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Re: Lebensraum

#23

Post by Jan-Hendrik » 10 Feb 2016, 13:36

Please keep in mind that most german colonists settling outside the Reichs border were called by local rulers...so much for the 'Drang nach Osten'...

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Re: Lebensraum

#24

Post by Futurist » 10 Feb 2016, 13:43

Jan-Hendrik wrote:Please keep in mind that most german colonists settling outside the Reichs border were called by local rulers...so much for the 'Drang nach Osten'...

Jan-Hendrik
These calls/invitations must have been sufficiently appealing for many of these ethnic Germans to accept these calls/invitations in the first place, though. :)

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Re: Lebensraum

#25

Post by Jan-Hendrik » 10 Feb 2016, 14:18

Hope for a better life? Like nearly all unforced emigrants?

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Re: Lebensraum

#26

Post by Futurist » 10 Feb 2016, 22:02

Jan-Hendrik wrote:Hope for a better life? Like nearly all unforced emigrants?
Yes, hope for a better life--in the East! :D

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Re: Lebensraum

#27

Post by wm » 10 Feb 2016, 23:51

Futurist wrote:These calls/invitations must have been sufficiently appealing for many of these ethnic Germans to accept these calls/invitations in the first place, though. :)
Actually many of them weren't given any choice. Especially those "evacuated" from Romania and the Baltic states.
Futurist wrote:In fact, since the 1880s the tendency had been for the population of the German territories east of the Oder to move to the more developed areas of Western and Central Germany, where standards of living were much higher. This tendency was called "Ostflucht", and by the 1930s it had resulted in a fall in the German population of East Prussia in particular.
In East Prussia lots of Polish seasonal workers were needed every year, without them agriculture there would fail.
And the working conditions on those farms were, let's say the stuff horrors are made. "Ostflucht" had its reasons...

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Re: Lebensraum

#28

Post by Futurist » 05 Mar 2016, 11:17

wm wrote:
Futurist wrote:These calls/invitations must have been sufficiently appealing for many of these ethnic Germans to accept these calls/invitations in the first place, though. :)
Actually many of them weren't given any choice. Especially those "evacuated" from Romania and the Baltic states.
Exactly what time period are you talking about here, though?

Also, didn't the German colonists who immigrated and settled in Russia in the 18th and 19th centuries do this by voluntary choice?
Futurist wrote:In fact, since the 1880s the tendency had been for the population of the German territories east of the Oder to move to the more developed areas of Western and Central Germany, where standards of living were much higher. This tendency was called "Ostflucht", and by the 1930s it had resulted in a fall in the German population of East Prussia in particular.
In East Prussia lots of Polish seasonal workers were needed every year, without them agriculture there would fail.
And the working conditions on those farms were, let's say the stuff horrors are made. "Ostflucht" had its reasons...
Care to please elaborate on the "stuff horrors are made" part?

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Re: Lebensraum

#29

Post by Piotr Kapuscinski » 05 Mar 2016, 21:10

michael mills wrote:This tendency was called "Ostflucht", and by the 1930s it had resulted in a fall in the German population of East Prussia in particular.
I have not noticed any decrease of the share of Germans by the 1930s - at least not in official statistics (which could artificially boost the % of Germans). And I'm also not sure why do you think, that ethnic Germans were overrepresented (proportionally to their share in total population) among "Ostflucht" emigrants? A lot of ethnic Poles from eastern territories also fled westward, particularly to the Ruhr Gebiet. And a large percent of those ethnic Poles who emigrated to the Ruhr Gebiet were actually Polish-speaking Masurians from East Prussia.
Jan-Hendrik wrote:Please keep in mind that most german colonists settling outside the Reichs border were called by local rulers
Except that in many (not all) cases those "local rulers" were actually Germans, who had established their own dynasties there after conquering those areas and incorporating them under the sovereignity of the Holy Roman Empire or to the State of the Teutonic Order.

I'm talking about such German dynasties like the Ascanians, the Luxembourgs and others (in addition to Teutonic Knights).
There are words which carry the presage of defeat. Defence is such a word. What is the result of an even victorious defence? The next attempt of imposing it to that weaker, defender. The attacker, despite temporary setback, feels the master of situation.

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Re: Lebensraum

#30

Post by michael mills » 06 Mar 2016, 03:54

Except that in many (not all) cases those "local rulers" were actually Germans, who had established their own dynasties there after conquering those areas and incorporating them under the sovereignty of the Holy Roman Empire or to the State of the Teutonic Order.
What about the Piast rulers of Silesia? They were not themselves German, but they encouraged the immigration of German colonists, as did the Piast rulers of other parts of Poland.

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