Almost forgot about the last installment, here it is.
I have also noted the figures given in Senshi Sosho, which are similar to those in “The Diaries of the Commander of the 101st Division”, but much lower than my calculation (regarding combat deaths) based on unit histories.
My calculation does agree pretty well with the Jan 15, 1938 entry in the diary of上村利道(Deputy Chief of Staff of the Shanghai Expeditionary Army), the total battle deaths of the Shanghai Expeditionary Army up to the end of 1937 is 16,609, with 1796 additional deaths due to sickness, giving a total number of deaths to be 18,000+. Note this includes the battle deaths of the Battle of Nanjing as well as the pursuit of defeated Chinese forces after the Battle of Shanghai, but since the casualties of these battles were considerably smaller than the Battle of Shanghai, I would say the two set of figures agree well in terms of number of deaths.
But how about the number of wounded and sick?
Another source, the regimental history of the 34th Infantry Regiment of 3D, contains a figure of 10,076 killed, 30,866 wounded, 20,172 sick and 897 deaths due to sickness. This is similar to the Senshi Sosho figures, but with number of sick added.
The Jan 15, 1938 entry in the diary of上村利道 actually gives more than the number of combat deaths, it also enumerates the number of dead due to sickness (1,796), number of wounded (86,007) but no information on the number of sick. This set of figures is both interesting and puzzling. It is interesting in that although the number of troops killed in action and died of diseases are vastly different from that in the regimental history of the 34th Infantry Regiment (10,076 vs 16,609, 897 vs 1,796) the ratio of battle deaths to death due to diseases is actually fairly close (11.2 to 1 vs 9.2 to 1); this seems to me that a ratio of say 10 to 1 is probably a fair estimate. If we assume the ratio of sick and death due to sickness (20,172 to 897) is a reasonably accurate one, and taking 1,796 as the more accurate estimate of the number of death due to sickness, then the number of sick can be estimated to be roughly 40,000.
The number of wounded given by上村利道 is puzzling; the ratio of death to wounded is almost 5:1 which is highly unusual – the figures based on unit histories quoted above is in the range of 2 to 2.5 to 1 which is far more reasonable. If we take 16,609 combat deaths as the base figure, we would expect something like 40,000 wounded. Did he include both wounded and sick (estimated at 40,000 above)? Maybe, but there is no way to tell.
So a preliminary conclusion is that in to the roughly 17000 combat deaths there should be added about 1800 death due to illness for a total of almost 19000 deaths due to all causes, and an estimated additional 35000 to 40000 wounded and 40000 sick; all told about reduction in combat strength of about 100,000 for the 3 month long Battle of Shanghai.