Natural rubber versus synthetic rubber?

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi lkefct and webmill,

The problem with the figures for the first quarter of 1945 are that they are an exception, because all other quarters for 1945 closely match those for 1944. This implies that the first quarter of 1945 figures were not largely the result of increased production, which should also presumably be reflected in later quarters, but some other, exceptional event like the recapture of a source with a stockpile. The only possibility I can think of is the Philipines, but fighting was not over there at this time.

The US had set up the Rubber Development Corporation in 1940 or 1941 in anticipation of supllies from S. E. Asia being disrupted. This was designed to boost production in Latin America and Africa. This had some rather limited success because productive plantations could not be set up in so short a time and wild rubber in remote places had to be found. It cannot significantly account for the anomally in the first quarter of 1945.

The Sri Lankan angle is a possibility, but this would require the U.K. to give up much of its own residual natural rubber production at a time it still had the European War on its hands.

Cheers,

Sid.

[phylo_roadking]

The Sri Lankan angle is a possibility, but this would require the U.K. to give up much of its own residual natural rubber production at a time it still had the European War on its hands.

Sid, that's not impossible...given that the end of the war in Europe was well in sight after Christmas 1944. The secret MAY lie in Reverse Lend lease, but I haven't ever seen a good quantified study of that apart from anecdotal information - for example, In 1945-46 the value of Reciprocal Aid from New Zealand exceeded that of Lend-lease!

So at a time that the end of the European war was in sight, and conceivably would be completed with stockpiled materiel or what was in the production chain at that point, it's not impossible that stocks would be transferred east to the US now that the Indian Ocean and South Pacific were safe for cargo transport once again. The issue of BRITISH rubber could of course be opened up by checking if there was a temporary decline in UK and Dominion imports from Ceylon at that time.... Or perhaps a decline in output of "rubber goods", so what the US got was surplus latex production...

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Phylo,

The motivation for Reverse Lend-Lease is a very good point that had not occurred to me. However, its concentration in just one quarter still looks problematical.

Cheers,

Sid.

[phylo_roadking]

Sid - depends on when it was asked for!

Another thought comes to mind - as well as finished product, was the US supplying rubber to the USSR among the MANY other raw materials it supplied? Supplies may have been halted for that quarter for some reason...

[Michael Emrys]

The secret MAY lie in Reverse Lend lease, but I haven't ever seen a good quantified study of that apart from anecdotal information...

Just as a point of information that may prove useful at some time down the road, I am inserting another chart. This one is also taken from The Big L. It is regrettable that the chart does not break out the statistics for each of the Commonwealth countries individually, but this is the best I could come up with for now. I cannot guarantee that these figures are either complete or entirely accurate, given the slippage between what is said and what is done in the average bureaucracy, errors may have slipped in at any point. But I think this places us in the ballpark at any rate.

What surprises me is the size of Belgium's contribution. Somehow, I have to wonder if buried in those figures is the value of uranium ore as well as uranium oxide.

Michael

[webmill]

On 2.May.1945 the British 6th Airborne, (in the overrun of Germany) occupies Wismar before the Red Army and the Soviets are blocked from Schleswig-Holstein. Source. World War II: Day by Day, MBI Publishing.

An example of wartime manuever for the future post war period;Before Chart 2 was completed for the US Congress 15.March.1948 and 4 months before the cumulative period ends of the chart at 2.Sept.1945
..but not necessarily in the direction of reverse lend lease while the war was going, except for case by case; and what is the case by case for raw materials lend-lease reverse?




The chart is dominated the Britains give for the war at $6,752,073,165
As per the Anglo-American Mutual Aid Agreement: Feb 28,1942. $31.4 billion is aid to Great Britain in return for British bases in the Carribean, NewFoundland, Bermuda and British West Indies; as per Article VI "In the final determination of the benefits to be provided to the United States of America by the Government of the United Kingdom full cognizance shall be taken of all property, services, information, facilities or other benefits or considerations provided by the Government of the United Kingdom subsequent to March 11, 1941 and accepted or acknowledged by the President on behalf of the USA."


I would think France and Belgium would do the same, until the picture was clearer in 1945.

[Michael Emrys]

@ webmill,

I'm not sure that you are interpreting this chart correctly. It is not intended to represent L-L goods and services returned to the US, but goods and services provided by the named nation to US forces for the prosecution of the war.

Michael

[Jon G.]

...What surprises me is the size of Belgium's contribution. Somehow, I have to wonder if buried in those figures is the value of uranium ore as well as uranium oxide.

Also industrial diamonds. Belgian Congo was a key supplier of those.

I posted some data on various minerals here viewtopic.php?f=66&t=119231

Perhaps this thread belongs in the Economy section?

[Michael Emrys]

...What surprises me is the size of Belgium's contribution. Somehow, I have to wonder if buried in those figures is the value of uranium ore as well as uranium oxide.

Also industrial diamonds. Belgian Congo was a key supplier of those.

Ah yes. What about South Africa? Were they supplying much?

I posted some data on various minerals here viewtopic.php?f=66&t=119231

Perhaps this thread belongs in the Economy section?

That's what I've been wondering too. This thread has been kind of meandering on the borderline, but I think it has decisively crossed over now and I will move it.

Michael

[Jon G.]

Also industrial diamonds. Belgian Congo was a key supplier of those.

Ah yes. What about South Africa? Were they supplying much?

Some, and also some Uranium. But the #1 commodity mined in South Africa was gold. I'm pretty sure that the relatively large reverse-LL sums represented by Belgium must be Uranium and diamonds; according to the tables I posted in the other thread Africa as a whole supplied 95%+ of the world's diamonds during WW2.

[webmill]

...interpreting this chart ... It is not intended to represent L-L goods and services returned to the US, but goods and services provided by the named nation to US forces for the prosecution of the war.

As far as Uranium qualifying as recipical Aid from Belgium to the US, the US kept the A-bomb a secret until 6.Aug.1945 when it was dropped on Hiroshima.
Unless Belgium is fast enough to realise the importance of Uranium, or is asked by the US around this time between 6.Aug.1945 and the end of the war with Japan 2.Sept.1945,which is approx 2 1/2 weeks to ship Uranium over to the US, which I don't think is the case.
questions raised about increased natural rubber imports 1st quarter 1945 which is somewhat mysterious, as shiploads of supplies to the US also but I doubt natural rubber loads can be confused unless,for example, in a South American/Sri Lanka confusion , but Uranium loads can be mysterious, but not confused.

July 16 1945 is the date of the A bomb explosion at Alamogordo, .. I would think the US would ask for Uranium sources of supply after Alamogordo, when much uranium was used to make only two A bombs the Fat Boy and Tall Boy starting the new standard of this new weapons field until more A bomb puzzles are sovled

[Jon G.]

I'm not sure ...interpreting this chart ... It is not intended to represent L-L goods and services returned to the US, but goods and services provided by the named nation to US forces for the prosecution of the war.

As far as Uranium qualifying as recipical Aid from Belgium to the US, the US kept the A-bomb a secret until 6.Aug.1945 when it was dropped on Hiroshima.
, Unless Belgium is fast enough to realise the importance of Uranium, or is asked by the US around this time between 6.Aug.1945 and the end of the war with Japan 2.Sept.1945,which is approx 2 1/2 weeks to ship Uranium over to the US, which I don't think is the case...

The Manhattan Project was secret, but Uranium imports strictly speaking didn't have to be. There were certainly exports of Uranium from the Congo to the USA prior to Aug. 6 1945 - but industrial diamonds were the most important commodity shipped from Belgian Congo to the US during the war as explained above.

[webmill]

Quote by Michael Emrys
...interpreting this chart ... It is not intended to represent L-L goods and services returned to the US, but goods and services provided by the named nation to US forces for the prosecution of the war.

Quote by webmill:
As far as Uranium qualifying as recipical Aid from Belgium to the US, the US kept the A-bomb a secret until 6.Aug.1945 when it was dropped on Hiroshima.
, Unless Belgium is fast enough to realise the importance of Uranium, or is asked by the US around this time between 6.Aug.1945 and the end of the war with Japan 2.Sept.1945,which is approx 2 1/2 weeks to ship Uranium over to the US, which I don't think is the case...

Quote by Jon G.:
The Manhattan Project was secret, but Uranium imports strictly speaking didn't have to be. There were certainly exports of Uranium from the Congo to the USA prior to Aug. 6 1945 -

The Belgium Congo mine Sinkolabure had, sold 1,200 tons of Uranium ore to the US starting in 1939 and the US used this uranium to build the first A bomb. Source. Wikipedia.

Later in the war after the US entry into it, the US can possibly use the following clause from the Anglo-American Mutual Aid Agreement ,Feb.28,1942to hide uranium ore shipments from Belgium, although no one knows what the uranium ore is for at the time which the US hopes is more easily done for the US in 1942 if wartime suppression about Uranium purpose is there, the US doesn't want the higher amounts of uranium necessarily to let out from a secret as this can be a tip of how far the US is on the A bomb project to the Axis during 1945 before and after 5.May 1945 and thus to the Communist Russians by an Allied defector , or Traitor Allied support of a German defector, I would speculate.
"And whereas it is expediant that the final determination of the terms and conditions which the Government of the UK recieves such aid and of the benefits to be received by the USA in return therefore should be deferred until the extent of the defense aid is known and until the progress of events makes clearer and final terms and conditions and benefits which will be in the mutual interests of the USA and the UK and will promote the establishment and maintenance of world peace."

(underlining emphasis in the Anglo-American Mutual Aid Agreement quote is by Webmill)

The Russians, as still Allies, shouldn't be alarmed and motivated by panic in Europe in post war Nazi Europe (Germany defeated) and during the war, until Aug 6 1945 and Hiroshima. Old 1939 Belgium Congo Uranium shipments by sea can be hidden or if not hidden then denied, if necessary, and the US has a safer policy. Prove this uranium hide or cover-up in the Belgium reverse lend-lease figures? I don't think so, but it could be done, more likely in the British figures, for example, as the British are in line for an A bomb in the future.

[Jon G.]

There is no need to speculate, webmill. The basics of the atom bomb were known also outside the US. And Uranium from the Congo was sent to the US during the war as well.

From the Dumett article which I posted some tables from in the other thread:

...The part played by the Union Miniere in furnishing supplies of uranium
for the experiments which led to the atomic bomb also deserves brief
mention. In October I940 the company's director, Edgar Sengier, reacting
to Nazi confiscation of mineral supplies in Belgium, decided to ship all
uranium ore stockpiled in Katanga to New York through the African Metals
Corporation. This 1,200 tons of high quality Congo ore plus small quantities
of ore from Canada and U.S. were practically all that the U.S. atomic
scientists had to work with on the Manhattan project up through 1944.40 Thus
African uranium was essential for the experiments that led directly to the
atomic bomb...From p. 392

In anticipation of what might transpire in mainland Europe, the Union Miniere had set up a US subsidiary already prior to the war.

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Guys,

I can confirm that the USAAF history of its operations in WWII includes reference to Uranium being transported from the Belgian Congo via the Southern Air Route from West Africa, through Brazil, to the U.S.

Cheers,

Sid.