German Steel Production

Discussions on the economic history of the nations taking part in WW2, from the recovery after the depression until the economy at war.
takata_1940
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German Steel Production

#1

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 21:51

Hi,

In order to address many fancy claims made lately about "Ger' could have" done this or that, "Ger' was almost equal in industrial capacity to the United States", etc., lets have a look at Germany's steel output from 1938 to 1944 and see what happened in reality and what is somewhat hidden behind the production figures:

Here is a first table showing the total German controlled Steel output from 1938 to 1944:
. 1938: 23,329
. 1939: 23,733
. 1940: 21,540
. 1941: 31,822
. 1942: 32,128
. 1943: 34,644
. 1944: 28,499
(x 1,000 metric tons; source: USSBS Report "The Effects of Strategic Bombing on the German War Economy".)

What is little mentioned is how this output was actually achieved and that Germany's domestic production peaked during the first quarter of 1939, never reaching again such a level of production. Here is a graphic showing the output of the main production district, Westphalia and Rhineland, also know as the Ruhr:
GSteel1.jpg
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takata_1940
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Re: German Steel Production

#2

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 22:08

What the graphic above is showing is that the production was going down and up following the various phases of the war (manpower mobilization & other various shortages) when, at the same time, the planners struggled very hard to maintain the production as high as possible. Hence, this resulted production was certainly not reflecting the planner's will to increase or decrease this level of Steel and Iron Pig outputs. Basically, 80% or more of the Iron Pig (incl. ferro-alloys) was used to make steel with various metallurgical processes, the remaining was used for cast iron or forged components. Crude Steel output was then higher because other steelmaking processes were not based on pig iron inputs, but both production curves were closely related.

Taking the Ruhr's (Northwest) district as an example is interesting because, as far as I can verify it, no external capacity was added or substracted to it during the whole period of the war. This was not the case for other Reich's districts:
GSteel2.jpg
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Re: German Steel Production

#3

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 22:23

The graphic above is showing the large percentage of the Ruhr in relation to the whole German controlled production. The name and area of the other districts changed during the war but, at the end, it is possible to regroup them under three groups:
- Northwest (Ruhr): Westphalia & Rhineland. unchanged
- Southwest: Saar, south Germany, Sieg, Lahn, Dill, Hessen... augmented.
- East: Northeast, Southeast, Austria, Central Germany, Saxony,... augmented.

Here is the graphic representing their respective quarterly Steel output (Pig Iron being a proportional fraction of it):
GSteel3.jpg
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takata_1940
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Re: German Steel Production

#4

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 22:42

From the above graphic, it is clear that "Domestic" Steel production was growing and did reach a level higher than 1939 (first quarterly).
In fact, it did not. This was only the direct consequence of annexed foreign productions. Both Eastern and Southwest groups beneficied from the addition of external capacity:
. Eastern district beneficied from added capacity taken from Poland (Upper Silesia) and Czechoslovakia (Sudentenland), 4th quarterly 1939.
. Southwest district beneficied from added capicity taken from France (Alsace-Lorraine) and Luxemburg, fist quaterly 1941.

Then, taking the series 1938-1944 (some numbers are derived as the details in data disapeared in 1943), it is possible to correct the German domestic steel output for the whole period. This is mainly to show that the very marginal part represented by the "occupied territories" in the above graphic is much more important than believed. Here is the corrected graph:
GSteel4.jpg
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Jon G.
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Re: German Steel Production

#5

Post by Jon G. » 05 Apr 2010, 22:49

Excellent information, Olivier. Thank you very much for taking the time to post it.

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Re: German Steel Production

#6

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 23:00

(to JonG: it is not all... but thank you!)
From here, it is possible to make the real part of the controlled territories steel output.
Other sources not included into the German "domestic" production were:
. Belgium;
. Northern France, Meurthe et Moselle;
. Protectorate (Bohemia-Moravia);
. Netherlands;
. Poland;
At one point, during the 1st quarterly 1944, production from Central France and Northern Italy were also added to the figure, but there is no mention of Norway anywhere:
Here is the table, calculated in yearly figure (x 4) output per quarterly, for comparison it is useful:
GSteel5b.jpg
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and the graphic corresponding:
GSteel5.jpg
GSteel5.jpg (47.42 KiB) Viewed 14796 times
Last edited by takata_1940 on 05 Apr 2010, 23:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: German Steel Production

#7

Post by takata_1940 » 05 Apr 2010, 23:12

Now, in order to close (defintively?) the fallacious debate with famous GIGO makers, here is the historical Steel production compared between the United States of America and the German Reich (including Austria and the Saarland) from 1920 to 1943. Everybody can have a look and consider if Germany (and territories under control) could have achieved a 46 million tons steel output in 1941 (even if she tried to do so!) and if Germany was actually controlling an industrial capacity equal to the USA.

The graphic will answer certainly very clearly this question:
GSteel6.jpg
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That's all folks!
S~
Olivier

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Guaporense
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Re: German Steel Production

#8

Post by Guaporense » 15 Apr 2010, 17:42

takata_1940 wrote:Hi,

In order to address many fancy claims made lately about "Ger' could have" done this or that, "Ger' was almost equal in industrial capacity to the United States", etc., lets have a look at Germany's steel output from 1938 to 1944 and see what happened in reality and what is somewhat hidden behind the production figures:
I never said that Germany was almost equal to the US in industrial capacity, I said only that they had a larger stock of machine tools than the US between 1940 to 1943. That is not the same thing.

Some people appear to believe that when I compared the output of certain items between Germany and the US, I would believe that they had comparable industrial capacity. That's ridiculous. If Germany focused on certain items, they could produce comparable quantities to the US (like when they focused on ammunition and tanks in 1943-44 and produced greater quantities of field artillery ammunition and comparable quantities of tanks to the US), while when the US focused on certain items, they could produce 4-5 times the quantities that Germany produced.

For example, in 1944, Germany produced 29,000 fighters, while the US produced 37,000. But in terms of bombers, the US produced 33,000 while Germany produced 6,500. And the US produced 7 times more bomb tonnage than Germany in 1944. In terms of ammunition, Germany could compete, producing 108 million heavy rounds, to 85 million heavy rounds of the US. But Germany could produce only 10,000 trucks per month, the US produced 50,000.

Overall, in 1944 Germany made 39 billion Rm in armaments, while the US made 42 billion US$, with would be ~85 billion Rm.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: German Steel Production

#9

Post by Guaporense » 15 Apr 2010, 18:03

Also, steel production is an imperfect guide to measure industrial production, even thought it is very useful. Today steel has lost much of it's former importance. With can be measured in their low importance to overall manufacturing production.

China produces 500.5 million tons of steel (2008) while the US produced only 91.4 million tons (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_prod ... by_country). But the value of the US production is still higher than China's, producing 1,831 billion US$ dollars to 1,399 billion US$ dollars of Chinese manufacturing output. Source: (http://investing.curiouscatblog.net/200 ... s-in-2008/).

Even in WW2 steel didn't prove that country A had a larger industrial production than country B. The USSR produced only 8.4 million tons of steel, while Germany's empire produced 34.6 million. But USSR's industrial production wasn't 25% of Germany's. It was probably around 50-60%. Germany also had access to nearly 3 times the steel production of UK (and 4 times the capacity).

The production of steel in the Altreich was smaller in the war than before it because they lost access to good quality iron ore, and hence mill productivity decreased. As result, steel was more scarce in Germany than in the US, with means that industrial demand for steel was higher in proportion to production in Germany, with means that industrial capacity in proportion to steel production was higher in proportion in Germany, and even higher in the USSR.

The USSR is an example, in 1944 their combat munitions production was 28 billion Rm, while the US produced 85 billion Rm in combat munitions. But the US produced 81 million tons of steel, while the USSR produced only 10 million tons. Britain, in the other hand, made ~22 billion RM in combat munitions, and their steel production was only 12 million tons, about 40% of Germany's output before bombing.

But second to the world economic survey, by 1943 Britain dedicated 80% of their steel production to the war effort, while second to the USSBS, Germany allocated 53%.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: German Steel Production

#10

Post by LWD » 15 Apr 2010, 18:41

Guaporense wrote: .... Germany also had access to nearly 3 times the steel production of UK (and 4 times the capacity).....
For some (possibly pathological) defintion of access.

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Re: German Steel Production

#11

Post by Guaporense » 15 Apr 2010, 19:05

How much UK imported?
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: German Steel Production

#12

Post by Jon G. » 15 Apr 2010, 20:24

Guaporense wrote:...Germany's empire produced 34.6 million.
In its peak year 1944, yes, German steel output was in that ballpark cf. takata_1940's tables, above. Generally speaking, basing your conclusions on statistical outliers is a bad idea, as has been pointed out to you many times.
The production of steel in the Altreich was smaller in the war than before it because they lost access to good quality iron ore
If by 'good quality iron ore' you mean imported Swedish ore, then that only really holds true from the autumn of 1944, when Swedish deliveries stopped (and another few months until all Swedish ore in the pipelines was exhausted)
and hence mill productivity decreased.
There is a direct correlation between declining or stagnating coal output and declining or stagnating steel production.
As result, steel was more scarce in Germany than in the US
Or, US steel production was higher than German production, to those of us who have difficulties following your convoluted logic.
with means that industrial demand for steel was higher in proportion to production in Germany...
...why do you assume that demand would be the same in the US and Germany? There is a direct relationship between steel production and steel demand, as the observable pre-war fluctuations in takata_1940's tables show us, but for nations at war we can safely assume demand for steel to be virtually unlimited.

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Re: German Steel Production

#13

Post by Guaporense » 16 Apr 2010, 22:09

I think that the best way to compare industrial capacity would be to compare the value of the industrial capital invested. Better than steel, machine tool stock, GDP, etc.

Second to the US's Wartime Production Achievements, 6, the US industrial capital was valued in billion US$ dollars:

1939 - 39.56
1945 - 64.46

While Germany's industrial capital stock was valued in billion Rm (Wages of Destruction, pg. 442):

1939 - 56
1943 - 71

At roughly exchange rates of 0.50 per dollar (with was the exchange rate used by the War Production Board, Bureau of Planning and Statistics, 1944), Germany's industrial capital stock was 70.8% of US's in 1939, and the 43 stock was valued at 55.1% of the US's 1945 capital stock.

But armament production for Germany was 31 billion Rm in 1943, while the US produced 42 billion US$ in 1944, out of a stock of perhaps, 65 billion US$ dollars, while Germany had 71 billion Rm in 1943. So, every billion Rm of Germany's capital stock made 437 million Rm in armaments, while the US's industrial capital stock made 700 million US$ dollars of armaments for each billion dollars of industrial capital stock.

When comparing machine tool, for Britain in 1943, 740,000 machine tools made 11 US$ dollars of armaments, 14,900 US$ per machine. While Germany made 31 billion Rm of munitions (15.5 billion US$) out of 2,150,000 machine tools, or 7,210 US$ of armaments per machine (14,420 Rm). About half of British production. Britain was the country, out of these 3, that utilized their machines most intensively.
Last edited by Guaporense on 16 Apr 2010, 22:34, edited 1 time in total.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: German Steel Production

#14

Post by Guaporense » 16 Apr 2010, 22:33

Jon G. wrote:
As result, steel was more scarce in Germany than in the US
Or, US steel production was higher than German production, to those of us who have difficulties following your convoluted logic.
No, because German industry was smaller, so they needed less steel. Germany probably needed 55-60% of the US's steel supply, while they had 40-45%.
with means that industrial demand for steel was higher in proportion to production in Germany...
...why do you assume that demand would be the same in the US and Germany? There is a direct relationship between steel production and steel demand, as the observable pre-war fluctuations in takata_1940's tables show us, but for nations at war we can safely assume demand for steel to be virtually unlimited.
For Germany steel was a bottleneck, for the US steel supply was more than enough.
"In tactics, as in strategy, superiority in numbers is the most common element of victory." - Carl von Clausewitz

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Re: German Steel Production

#15

Post by takata_1940 » 17 Apr 2010, 11:16

Guaporense wrote:
takata_1940 wrote:Hi,

In order to address many fancy claims made lately about "Ger' could have" done this or that, "Ger' was almost equal in industrial capacity to the United States", etc., lets have a look at Germany's steel output from 1938 to 1944 and see what happened in reality and what is somewhat hidden behind the production figures:
I never said that Germany was almost equal to the US in industrial capacity, I said only that they had a larger stock of machine tools than the US between 1940 to 1943. That is not the same thing.
Certainly not. You said that showing that in 1938, German steel output (its all time high-see my table) was nearly the same that USA (one of its all time low-see my table). Which method you are constantly using is now called Gigoistic-Guapishtitude.
Guaporense wrote: Some people appear to believe that when I compared the output of certain items between Germany and the US, I would believe that they had comparable industrial capacity. That's ridiculous. If Germany focused on certain items, they could produce comparable quantities to the US (like when they focused on ammunition and tanks in 1943-44 and produced greater quantities of field artillery ammunition and comparable quantities of tanks to the US), while when the US focused on certain items, they could produce 4-5 times the quantities that Germany produced.
Do you mean that when Germany focused on producing steel, she could produce comparable quantities than the USA? What I'm showing is that once the USA had shut down 4/5th of their steel production, they still outproduced Germany at her peak production level, which is quite a different demonstration.
Guaporense wrote: For example, in 1944, Germany produced 29,000 fighters, while the US produced 37,000. But in terms of bombers, the US produced 33,000 while Germany produced 6,500. And the US produced 7 times more bomb tonnage than Germany in 1944. In terms of ammunition, Germany could compete, producing 108 million heavy rounds, to 85 million heavy rounds of the US. But Germany could produce only 10,000 trucks per month, the US produced 50,000.
You just need to realize that every item picked out of the global war economy just mean nothing at all by itself and is only reflecting operational considerations and pre-established production planning. All those examples you are picking here and there are meaningless out of their historical context - you really need their historical back up to understand them - and you should start to realize that at one point. As you are constantly failing at that, most of what you posted until now on this forum is to be considered valueless.
Guaporense wrote: Overall, in 1944 Germany made 39 billion Rm in armaments, while the US made 42 billion US$, with would be ~85 billion Rm.
Another example picked out of historical context.
There is no more relationship between $US and RM value at this point of the war, and for a long time (from 1934). No quotations can be made because each monetary zone is closed to the other. If you are looking for a real historical exchange rate, it is $1 = 140 RM (1943) as you could have (minimum) 140,000 RM for $1,000 at free market change. And if you want the "real" value of the RM at this point, look at the official rate at the end of the war which was set favorably to the RM in order to not antagonize the German population with its real value: 0.00...0..1
Wich trigger this interrogation: are you really studying economics?

S~
Olivier

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