Germany winning on the Eastern Front

[ljadw]

I've heard that Moscow was the centre of a rail network, so if the Germans did capture it, then the Russians would have at least caused some problems in supply lines- sorry, I didn't realise how much more complex the situation of oil and the Caucasus was! perhaps, Germany shouldn't have attacked at all and instead consolidated their hold over Western Europe- then if Stalin had attacked instead, perhaps a defensive position for the Wehrmacht would have been better. plus, the job would have been easier because the army and Air Force weren't depleted and knackered at this point!

There is no proof at all for the claim that Stalin would attack .

[Phaing]

This has been discussed before, but there was no way for Germany to reach the British oil fields and no means of getting oil back to Germany. By the way that book is stupid, because the Germans did cut the Med supply route, traffic did have to go around Africa. There are few roads and almost no rail lines between Turkey and Russia, so I don't know how Germany could have sent enough troops through Turkey and supplied them while they tried to cross a very difficult mountain range

Good point!
Turkey stayed out of the war because they knew all of that, it would have been ludicrous for them to get involved. Instead they made a huge amount of money trading with both sides and letting both sides try to bribe them with military aid.
Not the nicest people in the world, but also not the dumbest either.

[Dave-the-Rave66]

so after all these theories I've explored, which have kindly been explained and clarified by you guys!:) , I can't really see that many obvious solutions for hitler which could have defeated the ussr. the only one I can think of would be to launch a smaller offensive in the south and order a swift advance, meaning Stalin would divert more supplies and troops as he did in real life- however then army group centre could attack in bulk, using more of the supplies that in reality would have been drained in Stalingrad and the Caucasus. This, along with concentrated propaganda to drive a wedge between the Russian soldier and his commander, could have convinced stalins government that defeat was near

[steverodgers801]

Most of the Soviet troops were station against AGC. It was too late for a propaganda drive, the Germans had already committed to their racial policy

[Dave-the-Rave66]

so what if they did what I said above, but never had a racial policy in the first place? of course, knowing the regime they would have turned to their brutal murder after a victory, but if this was the case then I believe that the version of operation blue I described might have stood a chance.
also, I reckon that if the Germans had taken the time to develop a long range bomber like a Flying Fortress, then they could have done damage to soviet infrastructure without relying on blitzkrieg

[Alixanther]

I've heard that Moscow was the centre of a rail network, so if the Germans did capture it, then the Russians would have at least caused some problems in supply lines- sorry, I didn't realise how much more complex the situation of oil and the Caucasus was! perhaps, Germany shouldn't have attacked at all and instead consolidated their hold over Western Europe- then if Stalin had attacked instead, perhaps a defensive position for the Wehrmacht would have been better. plus, the job would have been easier because the army and Air Force weren't depleted and knackered at this point!

There is no proof at all for the claim that Stalin would attack .

There's 100 % chance that USSR would have to involve their military in an adventure late '41 or early '42. No state on this planet will keep under arms such a large manpower force without envisaging a military purpose after 2-3 years. It is detrimental to the economy and the society as a whole. There's no proof their economy could sustain indefinitely such a force without being involved into a war, therefore the implications are only logical.

Nobody would know when Stalin decided to attack but my guess is sometimes in early autumn, after or during harvest reaping, so even more manpower is available to fill the the gaps into either reserves or production.

@Dave-the-Rave66 Luftwaffe efforts could not add up a strategic complement on top of their tactical efforts. They were already at maximum and had nothing to spare. Their effort to bomb Moscow was even more of a failure than bombing Britain. That's why they've cut their bombing runs because in 4-5 more runs they'd have bled dry. Most of the time when they tried to do add a strategic dimension to their military objectives, they failed miserably. Rotterdam - useless bombings which only inflicted casualties on an open city (they didn't know it would surrender though), Battle for Britain - getting in bad shape instead of obtaining air supremacy, Moscow - losing planes due to Flak and Air Baloons, Stalingrad - instead of leveling the city the debris offered better conditions for urban warfare than buildings previously, and so on.

[KDF33]

There's 100 % chance that USSR would have to involve their military in an adventure late '41 or early '42. No state on this planet will keep under arms such a large manpower force without envisaging a military purpose after 2-3 years. It is detrimental to the economy and the society as a whole. There's no proof their economy could sustain indefinitely such a force without being involved into a war, therefore the implications are only logical.

The USSR kept roughly 5 million men under arms for the duration of the Cold War.

Regards,

KDF

[stg 44]

There's 100 % chance that USSR would have to involve their military in an adventure late '41 or early '42. No state on this planet will keep under arms such a large manpower force without envisaging a military purpose after 2-3 years. It is detrimental to the economy and the society as a whole. There's no proof their economy could sustain indefinitely such a force without being involved into a war, therefore the implications are only logical.

The USSR kept roughly 5 million men under arms for the duration of the Cold War.

Regards,

KDF

Which led to their collapse, because they were spending 25% of their GDP on the military. They were also using that military in the Cold War and occupation of their half of Europe. Plus skirmishing with the Chinese.

[ljadw]

There is O % chance that Stalin would have attacked Germany in 1941/1942.

Because

1) If he wanted to attack Germany,he would have done it in may/june 1940 when the WM was busy in the West .

2 ) In june 1941 the Red Army had no offensive and even defensive capacity:no leader will attack if his army is not capable to attack .

[ljadw]

Which led to their collapse, because they were spending 25% of their GDP on the military. They were also using that military in the Cold War and occupation of their half of Europe. Plus skirmishing with the Chinese.

This is very questionable.

[stg 44]

Which led to their collapse, because they were spending 25% of their GDP on the military. They were also using that military in the Cold War and occupation of their half of Europe. Plus skirmishing with the Chinese.

This is very questionable.

A critical problem to the Soviet state was its massive spending on the military to compete with the West, in doing so they had very little left for consumer goods and the like, which led to a lot of dissatisfaction with the government. It wasn't the only problem to be sure, but it was a major contributing factor.
http://one-salient-oversight.blogspot.c ... itary.html

[ljadw]

There was dissatisfaction with the regime, but this was not the cause of the collaps of the regime :the cause was that the Soviet economy remained an economy of the fifties and had missed the connextion with the new industrial revolution,to transform the economy,political changes were needed,and these would result in the end of communism .

There was not so much dissatisfaction with the regime,but more indifference . Everyone knew that the regime was based on lies,and everyone pretended to follow the party line,while in reality everyone was caring about himself,and himself only .There was also the fact that the Soviet economy was deeply hurt by the economic crisis,much more than one suspects,and that the regime was unable to carry through the needed reforms :to many powerful lobbies were blocking the system .

the only possibility to save the regime was a new Stalin who would carry through the needed reforms and eliminate the obstacles . But,for obvious reasons, no one wanted this .

[michael mills]

1) If he wanted to attack Germany,he would have done it in may/june 1940 when the WM was busy in the West .

In May 1940, Stalin believed that the war in the West that was just starting would be a long one, essentially a repeat of the 1914-18 Western Front. He considered that by the end of that war, lasting several years, both sides would be exhausted and ripe for revolution, while the Red Army would have been modernised and strengthened, and in a position to move westward to assist the revolutions in Germany and France.

The rapid German victory in the West took Stalin by surprise and frustrated his strategy, since Germany was not fatally weakened while the Red Army was not yet strong enough to challenge Germany militarily. From that point on, Stalin adopted a policy of building up the strength of the Red Army as quickly as possible (the re-equipment program was scheduled to be completed by the spring of 1942), while simultaneously trying to weaken Germany by cutting back and even temporarily halting the flow of oil and other supplies to it.

It is likely that Stalin would not have chosen of his own accord to launch a first strike against Germany in 1941, since the re-equipment program would not have been completed. However, it is a fact that by May of that year Timoshenko and Zhukov had drafted a plan for a pre-emptive strike against the German forces in Poland, and that can only have been in response to an order from Stalin.

[ljadw]

There is no proof that the plan from Zhukov/Timoshenko was ordered by Stalin .

[ljadw]

The USSR kept roughly 5 million men under arms for the duration of the Cold War.

Regards,

KDF

This is an exaggerated figure .