Germany winning on the Eastern Front

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
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KDF33
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#361

Post by KDF33 » 11 Jan 2016, 10:22

ljadw wrote:This is an exaggerated figure .
No, it isn't. It's in fact a most-widely known figure. Check this page, for instance. It oscillates between 3.5 and 5.5 million men during the 1950 - 1990 period.

Regards,

KDF

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#362

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 12:03

The CIA figures are not reliable,for obvious reasons .Besides, if it oscillates between 3.5 and 5 million, that means that the average was LOWER than 5 million .


KDF33
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#363

Post by KDF33 » 11 Jan 2016, 12:14

They're not CIA figures, they're Soviet figures. Hell, one of the sources is a report from Zhukov to the Central Committee. Did you even click the link?

Besides, the only time the Soviet Armed Forces fell around 3.5 million was during the early 1960s. By decade, Soviet military strength looks like this:

1950s: 5 million +
1960s: 3.5 - 4 million
1970s: 4 million +
1980s: 5 million

For the sake of accuracy I should have said that the Soviets maintained 4 - 5 million men under arms during the Cold War. Which changes nothing to my initial argument: that the large forces the USSR fielded before Barbarossa weren't unsustainable in peacetime.

Regards,

KDF

michael mills
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#364

Post by michael mills » 11 Jan 2016, 12:29

There is no proof that the plan from Zhukov/Timoshenko was ordered by Stalin .
It is extremely unlikely that Timoshenko and Zhukov would have risked their necks by preparing a detailed plan for a first strike against the German forces in Poland and against Romania unless they had previously received Stalin's approval for such action.

steverodgers801
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#365

Post by steverodgers801 » 11 Jan 2016, 20:58

there is a difference between a plan and a proposal. It is likely that Zhukov did suggest a preemptive strike as a way to shake Stalin out of his blindness, but there were no actual staff plans for such an attack

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#366

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 21:32

All armies have plans for all eventualities: after WWI US had war plans for war with Britain .What do you think would have been Stalin's reaction if he had ordered to start the preparations for an attack against Germany and Timochenko and Zhukov had told him : this must be delayed,because we have no operational plan .

Besides,even if there was such a plan, this does not prove an intention : before the war,France had a plan for war with Germany,but this does not prove that France had the intention to start such war . After 1945,US and the SU had plans for war against each other,but this does not prove that they had the intention to attack each other .

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#367

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 21:36

KDF33 wrote:They're not CIA figures, they're Soviet figures. Hell, one of the sources is a report from Zhukov to the Central Committee. Did you even click the link?

Besides, the only time the Soviet Armed Forces fell around 3.5 million was during the early 1960s. By decade, Soviet military strength looks like this:

1950s: 5 million +
1960s: 3.5 - 4 million
1970s: 4 million +
1980s: 5 million

For the sake of accuracy I should have said that the Soviets maintained 4 - 5 million men under arms during the Cold War. Which changes nothing to my initial argument: that the large forces the USSR fielded before Barbarossa weren't unsustainable in peacetime.

Regards,

KDF
NO : they were not unsaustainable in peacetime : YOU :wink: said that during the Cold War the Soviets maintained 4/5 million men under the arms : during 40 years,thus ,what was possible during the Cold War was also possible in 1941 and afterwards .

KDF33
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#368

Post by KDF33 » 11 Jan 2016, 21:55

ljadw wrote:NO : they were not unsaustainable in peacetime : YOU :wink: said that during the Cold War the Soviets maintained 4/5 million men under the arms : during 40 years,thus ,what was possible during the Cold War was also possible in 1941 and afterwards .
Do you even follow the argument? I have been arguing for the last 3 or 4 posts precisely this: that the Soviet military establishment of 1941 WAS sustainable in peacetime.

Regards,

KDF

michael mills
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#369

Post by michael mills » 11 Jan 2016, 22:44

there is a difference between a plan and a proposal. It is likely that Zhukov did suggest a preemptive strike as a way to shake Stalin out of his blindness, but there were no actual staff plans for such an attack
How do we know that there were no such staff plans?

The historian Evan Mawdsley has concluded that the Timoshenko-Zhukov pre-emptive strike plan as preserved is a first draft of a genuine plan for a military confrontation with Germany, and had been ordered by Stalin, who in Mawdsley's view was by no means "blind" and was not afraid of a war with Germany, being confident that the Soviet Union was strong enough to win it.

According to Mawdsley, the only unknown is when Stalin intended to implement the Timoshenko-Zhukov plan. He notes that as of 22 June 1941, the prescribed concentration of forces in the Lvov salient, the centre of gravity of the planned pre-emptive strike, had not yet been reached, which means that the strike could not have been launched at any date prior to, or soon after, that of the actual German invasion. It could only have been launched after the concentration of forces prescribed in the plan had been reached, which in Mawdsley's opinion could not have been before the late summer of 1941 at the earliest. That is consistent with the statements made to German interrogators by captured Red Army officers that there were rumours of an offensive to the west planned for August-September 1941.

The idea that Stalin was "blind" to German preparation for an invasion was propagated by Khrushchev as part of his "destalinisation" campaign, the aim being to blame Stalin's "blindness" for the catastrophe that befell the Red Army in 1941.

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#370

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 23:02

Mawdsley is wrong : there are no proofs that staff plans existed .

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#371

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 23:05

KDF33 wrote:
ljadw wrote:This is an exaggerated figure .
No, it isn't. It's in fact a most-widely known figure. Check this page, for instance. It oscillates between 3.5 and 5.5 million men during the 1950 - 1990 period.

Regards,

KDF
William Odon writes on P 39 from "the Collapse of the Soviet Military " that between 1945 and 1948 the Soviet Forces were reduced to ca 2.8 million .

KDF33
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#372

Post by KDF33 » 11 Jan 2016, 23:09

Yes, and then it increased massively after Korea. My comment mentioned 1950 - 1990.

Regards,

KDF

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#373

Post by ljadw » 11 Jan 2016, 23:18

And it was reduced massively after Korea .

KDF33
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#374

Post by KDF33 » 12 Jan 2016, 06:36

Jesus Christ ljadw, are you a troll? I've already provided figures indicating that. I have no idea why you're still arguing with me, especially given that we basically share the same view: that the large Soviet peacetime forces of June 1941 were no proof that the USSR was preparing for offensive war.

Regards,

KDF

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#375

Post by ljadw » 12 Jan 2016, 08:40

No :you said that the Soviet forces were massively increased aFTER the Korean war; it should be : during the Korean war; after the Korean war, they were reduced (exemple in 1956) .The reason (or one of the reasons) being that essentially the SU followed the US "New Look " policy = reducing the army in manpower and money and increasing the air force .

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