Germany winning on the Eastern Front

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ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#466

Post by ljadw » 26 May 2016, 22:36

Boby wrote:Well, IF they supplied it in the OTL, why not in the shorter ATL? Flanks, city, or both. More units per km of front.
In the summer of 1942 AGS had 60 German divisions,which could not be all used for Blau.

21 were going to the Caucasus (AGA )

22 to Stalingrad (AGB)

A small part of the other 17 divisions were used to protect the line Woronesj- Astrachan (some 1000 km);even if all AGA divisions were used ,it still would be impsible to defend successfully these 1000 km ,and the more divisions would leave the Caucasus/would not go to the Caucasus, the more Soviet forces in the Caucasus would become free for Uranus or an other offensive on the Wolga .The Wolga could only be hold if the Soviets were defeated definitively ,and they never were .

It is not so that the ATL would be shorter than the OTL.

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Appleknocker27
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#467

Post by Appleknocker27 » 26 May 2016, 22:40

ljadw wrote:NO : you said clearly that pre-war forces were better than recruits and reservists called up during the war,that they had more experience which means : war experience .
And you have NO proof that qualitatively the 800000 men lost in 1941 were better than those available in june 1942 for Blau .
"The spring of 1942, by which time the Russian winter counter-offensive had ended, found the German Army as spent force, incapable of undertaking major military operations. German divisions on the Eastern Front, with several exceptions, consisted of a reinforced regiment of Infantry, usually four or five battalions of Infantry, few if any heavy weapons, a handful of engineers, about 20 light howitzers, and a rather large contingent of support troops. Raw conscripts or recently transferred rear area support troops often replaced the fallen combat veterans in the Infantry companies, and Infantry companies consisted of anywhere from 30-80 men, rather than the authorized 191 men. Russian terrain was unsuitable for western motor vehicles and the German Army had littered the Russian countryside with broken vehicles. The German General Staff as early as November 18, 1941, began the process of taking motor vehicles away from the Infantry's supply, anti-tank, and engineer units. And the German economy could not provide sufficient vehicles to refit all of the army's panzer divisions. The Russian campaign (Barbarossa) had reduced the German Army in quality and quantity."

PG 163 of http://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Legions ... 0275902358

What I stated all along in this thread is fact, now you have a quote from a very reliable source. Beyond any doubt, you will not admit error in this thread or any other, so this post is for the few that are following it, just to make sure you lead non astray...


To be clear, the Infantry battalions in the Infantry divisions bore the majority of casualties during Barbarossa. Their losses as a percentage of total strength are disproportionate to the losses suffered by any other branch in the army. The Ersatz army/replacement system was completely overwhelmed and could not provide nearly enough properly trained Infantrymen to refill all German Infantry divisions. Therefore, maximum effort was made to fill the units intended for Blau, while most of the rest of the divisions on the Eastern front took a back seat. The to experienced NCOs, specialists and junior officers was catastrophic and irreplaceable.
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Appleknocker27
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#468

Post by Appleknocker27 » 26 May 2016, 22:45

ljadw wrote:nonsense: a pre-war army is a peace army,which is not mobilised,the mobilisation transformed the WM in a war army .

Besides,the more than questionable Feldgrau figures are for 1939, not for the pre-war period .

They are questionable because there are NO such things as strength figures for 1941 or other years .
You are trying to polish a turd....good luck.

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#469

Post by ljadw » 26 May 2016, 22:48

The Feldgrau figures are also wrong (as I mentioned some years ago )

1939 :WM : 4.722OOO

Army : 3.737.000

WSS : 35000

LW : 400000

KM : 50000


Total : 4.222.000 NOT 4.7222000

This blunder is on the internet since several years and no one from Feldgrau has noticed it and a lot of people are still parotting these wrong figures .

When mobilized the WM had 4.222.000 men, before the mobilisation it was some 1 million .

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#470

Post by ljadw » 26 May 2016, 22:58

Appleknocker27 wrote:
ljadw wrote:NO : you said clearly that pre-war forces were better than recruits and reservists called up during the war,that they had more experience which means : war experience .
And you have NO proof that qualitatively the 800000 men lost in 1941 were better than those available in june 1942 for Blau .
"The spring of 1942, by which time the Russian winter counter-offensive had ended, found the German Army as spent force, incapable of undertaking major military operations. German divisions on the Eastern Front, with several exceptions, consisted of a reinforced regiment of Infantry, usually four or five battalions of Infantry, few if any heavy weapons, a handful of engineers, about 20 light howitzers, and a rather large contingent of support troops. Raw conscripts or recently transferred rear area support troops often replaced the fallen combat veterans in the Infantry companies, and Infantry companies consisted of anywhere from 30-80 men, rather than the authorized 191 men. Russian terrain was unsuitable for western motor vehicles and the German Army had littered the Russian countryside with broken vehicles. The German General Staff as early as November 18, 1941, began the process of taking motor vehicles away from the Infantry's supply, anti-tank, and engineer units. And the German economy could not provide sufficient vehicles to refit all of the army's panzer divisions. The Russian campaign (Barbarossa) had reduced the German Army in quality and quantity."

PG 163 of http://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Legions ... 0275902358

What I stated all along in this thread is fact, now you have a quote from a very reliable source. Beyond any doubt, you will not admit error in this thread or any other, so this post is for the few that are following it, just to make sure you lead non astray...


To be clear, the Infantry battalions in the Infantry divisions bore the majority of casualties during Barbarossa. Their losses as a percentage of total strength are disproportionate to the losses suffered by any other branch in the army. The Ersatz army/replacement system was completely overwhelmed and could not provide nearly enough properly trained Infantrymen to refill all German Infantry divisions. Therefore, maximum effort was made to fill the units intended for Blau, while most of the rest of the divisions on the Eastern front took a back seat. The to experienced NCOs, specialists and junior officers was catastrophic and irreplaceable.
Why would Lewis be a very reliable source ? Someone reliable would not use as argument the strength of the Ostheer immediately after the winter campaign ,to pontificate that the WM was very weak in the summer .Only a few divisions were fully operational in march 1942, but much more were operational in the summer,besides the discussion is not if the WM was spent during Barbarossa,but if the Barbarossa losses were influencing the outcome of Blau,implying that less Barbarossa losses would increase the chance of Blau to succeed. And : THIS IS NOT SO .
That the rest of the divisions on the Eastern Front took a set back is totally irrelevant for the outcome of Blau : these divisions were not used for Blau .

What Lewis is saying (a lot of meaningless generalities) can not be used in a discussion for the outcome of Blau . Blau started with 60 divisions and failed,if it started with 70 divisions, it also would fail.

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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#471

Post by Boby » 26 May 2016, 23:45

ljadw wrote:
Boby wrote:Well, IF they supplied it in the OTL, why not in the shorter ATL? Flanks, city, or both. More units per km of front.
In the summer of 1942 AGS had 60 German divisions,which could not be all used for Blau.

21 were going to the Caucasus (AGA )

22 to Stalingrad (AGB)

A small part of the other 17 divisions were used to protect the line Woronesj- Astrachan (some 1000 km);even if all AGA divisions were used ,it still would be impsible to defend successfully these 1000 km ,and the more divisions would leave the Caucasus/would not go to the Caucasus, the more Soviet forces in the Caucasus would become free for Uranus or an other offensive on the Wolga .The Wolga could only be hold if the Soviets were defeated definitively ,and they never were .

It is not so that the ATL would be shorter than the OTL.
Thanks for the info. Do you know how many Soviet troops were on the Caucasus?

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Appleknocker27
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#472

Post by Appleknocker27 » 27 May 2016, 01:18

ljadw wrote:
Appleknocker27 wrote:
ljadw wrote:NO : you said clearly that pre-war forces were better than recruits and reservists called up during the war,that they had more experience which means : war experience .
And you have NO proof that qualitatively the 800000 men lost in 1941 were better than those available in june 1942 for Blau .
"The spring of 1942, by which time the Russian winter counter-offensive had ended, found the German Army as spent force, incapable of undertaking major military operations. German divisions on the Eastern Front, with several exceptions, consisted of a reinforced regiment of Infantry, usually four or five battalions of Infantry, few if any heavy weapons, a handful of engineers, about 20 light howitzers, and a rather large contingent of support troops. Raw conscripts or recently transferred rear area support troops often replaced the fallen combat veterans in the Infantry companies, and Infantry companies consisted of anywhere from 30-80 men, rather than the authorized 191 men. Russian terrain was unsuitable for western motor vehicles and the German Army had littered the Russian countryside with broken vehicles. The German General Staff as early as November 18, 1941, began the process of taking motor vehicles away from the Infantry's supply, anti-tank, and engineer units. And the German economy could not provide sufficient vehicles to refit all of the army's panzer divisions. The Russian campaign (Barbarossa) had reduced the German Army in quality and quantity."

PG 163 of http://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Legions ... 0275902358

What I stated all along in this thread is fact, now you have a quote from a very reliable source. Beyond any doubt, you will not admit error in this thread or any other, so this post is for the few that are following it, just to make sure you lead non astray...


To be clear, the Infantry battalions in the Infantry divisions bore the majority of casualties during Barbarossa. Their losses as a percentage of total strength are disproportionate to the losses suffered by any other branch in the army. The Ersatz army/replacement system was completely overwhelmed and could not provide nearly enough properly trained Infantrymen to refill all German Infantry divisions. Therefore, maximum effort was made to fill the units intended for Blau, while most of the rest of the divisions on the Eastern front took a back seat. The to experienced NCOs, specialists and junior officers was catastrophic and irreplaceable.
Why would Lewis be a very reliable source ? Someone reliable would not use as argument the strength of the Ostheer immediately after the winter campaign ,to pontificate that the WM was very weak in the summer .Only a few divisions were fully operational in march 1942, but much more were operational in the summer,besides the discussion is not if the WM was spent during Barbarossa,but if the Barbarossa losses were influencing the outcome of Blau,implying that less Barbarossa losses would increase the chance of Blau to succeed. And : THIS IS NOT SO .
That the rest of the divisions on the Eastern Front took a set back is totally irrelevant for the outcome of Blau : these divisions were not used for Blau .

What Lewis is saying (a lot of meaningless generalities) can not be used in a discussion for the outcome of Blau . Blau started with 60 divisions and failed,if it started with 70 divisions, it also would fail.
Lol....

Barbarossa had how many army groups on how many different axis of advance vs Blau? Hmmmm, now was Blau a much smaller operation and the other 2 army groups static?
You cannot avoid the effect of barbarossa's losses on the combat capability of the ostheer in 1942. No matter how much you try to reframe and obfuscate...

David1819
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#473

Post by David1819 » 27 May 2016, 01:41

I believe the only certain way Germany could have defeated the USSR would be to use a façade of liberation, specially in the Ukraine.

Had Germany used psychological manipulation like promising autonomy and freedom in areas such as Ukriane and other areas of the USSR that hated Stalin. Instead they missed allot of chances to get allies by brutalising the peoples

Then they could execute their ethic cleansing policy once the USSR is gone and resistance is minimal, hence why I use the term façade of liberation

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#474

Post by ljadw » 27 May 2016, 07:52

David1819 wrote:I believe the only certain way Germany could have defeated the USSR would be to use a façade of liberation, specially in the Ukraine.

Had Germany used psychological manipulation like promising autonomy and freedom in areas such as Ukriane and other areas of the USSR that hated Stalin. Instead they missed allot of chances to get allies by brutalising the peoples

Then they could execute their ethic cleansing policy once the USSR is gone and resistance is minimal, hence why I use the term façade of liberation
This is speculation, as no one knows the degree of hostility that existed in some areas of the SU and it is very hazardous to translate hostility to the regime in willingness to collaborate with an invader against this regime .

There was a certain degree of hostility to the existing regimes in Germany and in Italy, but this did not result in a willingness to collaborate with the enemy, it did not even result in massive(or not ) desertions.

As far as I know,there was one case of a German accepting to collaborate with the invaders : the man (forgot his name ) who accepted the post of mayor of occupied Aachen (and who was killed by the German "resistance " ),but there is no proof that he accepted the post by hostility to the nazis .

In the areas of the SU occupied by the Germans, there were also "collaborating" people, as the mayor of Kiew, but there is no proof that the man collaborated for political reasons .There were in Belgium a lot of "war " mayors,but there are no proofs that they collaborated for political reasons = hostility to the existing regime, sympathy for the Germans .

Conclusion : there is no proof that an other German policy would have resulted in better chances for defeating the SU .

ljadw
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#475

Post by ljadw » 27 May 2016, 08:11

Appleknocker27 wrote:
ljadw wrote:
Appleknocker27 wrote:
ljadw wrote:NO : you said clearly that pre-war forces were better than recruits and reservists called up during the war,that they had more experience which means : war experience .
And you have NO proof that qualitatively the 800000 men lost in 1941 were better than those available in june 1942 for Blau .
"The spring of 1942, by which time the Russian winter counter-offensive had ended, found the German Army as spent force, incapable of undertaking major military operations. German divisions on the Eastern Front, with several exceptions, consisted of a reinforced regiment of Infantry, usually four or five battalions of Infantry, few if any heavy weapons, a handful of engineers, about 20 light howitzers, and a rather large contingent of support troops. Raw conscripts or recently transferred rear area support troops often replaced the fallen combat veterans in the Infantry companies, and Infantry companies consisted of anywhere from 30-80 men, rather than the authorized 191 men. Russian terrain was unsuitable for western motor vehicles and the German Army had littered the Russian countryside with broken vehicles. The German General Staff as early as November 18, 1941, began the process of taking motor vehicles away from the Infantry's supply, anti-tank, and engineer units. And the German economy could not provide sufficient vehicles to refit all of the army's panzer divisions. The Russian campaign (Barbarossa) had reduced the German Army in quality and quantity."

PG 163 of http://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Legions ... 0275902358

What I stated all along in this thread is fact, now you have a quote from a very reliable source. Beyond any doubt, you will not admit error in this thread or any other, so this post is for the few that are following it, just to make sure you lead non astray...


To be clear, the Infantry battalions in the Infantry divisions bore the majority of casualties during Barbarossa. Their losses as a percentage of total strength are disproportionate to the losses suffered by any other branch in the army. The Ersatz army/replacement system was completely overwhelmed and could not provide nearly enough properly trained Infantrymen to refill all German Infantry divisions. Therefore, maximum effort was made to fill the units intended for Blau, while most of the rest of the divisions on the Eastern front took a back seat. The to experienced NCOs, specialists and junior officers was catastrophic and irreplaceable.
Why would Lewis be a very reliable source ? Someone reliable would not use as argument the strength of the Ostheer immediately after the winter campaign ,to pontificate that the WM was very weak in the summer .Only a few divisions were fully operational in march 1942, but much more were operational in the summer,besides the discussion is not if the WM was spent during Barbarossa,but if the Barbarossa losses were influencing the outcome of Blau,implying that less Barbarossa losses would increase the chance of Blau to succeed. And : THIS IS NOT SO .
That the rest of the divisions on the Eastern Front took a set back is totally irrelevant for the outcome of Blau : these divisions were not used for Blau .

What Lewis is saying (a lot of meaningless generalities) can not be used in a discussion for the outcome of Blau . Blau started with 60 divisions and failed,if it started with 70 divisions, it also would fail.
Lol....

Barbarossa had how many army groups on how many different axis of advance vs Blau? Hmmmm, now was Blau a much smaller operation and the other 2 army groups static?
You cannot avoid the effect of barbarossa's losses on the combat capability of the ostheer in 1942. No matter how much you try to reframe and obfuscate...
Red herring : the question is NOT the effect of Barbarossa losses on the combat capability of the Ostheer in 1942, but the effect of Barbarossa losses on the outcome of Blau .Only a part of the 1942 Ostheer participated on Blau and the Ostheer of 1942 was NOT the Ostheer of 1941 .

If the other 2 army groups were not static,is also a red herring.

60 divisions participated in Blau,only these divisions must be involved in the discussion,the composition of these divisions was different from 1941 (the losses were only a minor cause),but the opposing forces were also different,and the mission of the German forces was also different ,thus the linear explanation is wrong and suspicious : you can not transport the Ostheer of 1941 to 1942.

The losses were only a minor cause : only the killed and missing left the East definitively, and they were only a minority of those who left : a big part of the wounded returned, and a very big part of the non wounded also left .

The LSS left the east in the summer of 1942= more non wounded/killed /missing left than casualties .

If there were less casualties there would also be less replacements .

In may/june 1940,the Germans lost 150000 men : it is not so that if they had lost only 100000 men, there would be 50000 men more for the Ostheer in june 1941.

It is the same for weapons and war material :til 5 august 1941 the Ostheer had lost 914 tanks,it is not so that if they had lost only 614 tanks, 300 more tanks would have been available for Blau .

If inmay/june 1940 the LW had lost less aircraft, this would not have resulted in more aircraft for Blau .

steverodgers801
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#476

Post by steverodgers801 » 27 May 2016, 21:06

One reason the losses were important is that the width of the front was greater and thus more troops were needed, which meant the use of the allies.

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BDV
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#477

Post by BDV » 31 May 2016, 23:08

steverodgers801 wrote:One reason the losses were important is that the width of the front was greater and thus more troops were needed, which meant the use of the allies.
You misunderstand the role of the auxiliaries and co-belligerents in the war against Bolshevik Russia.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

steverodgers801
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#478

Post by steverodgers801 » 01 Jun 2016, 02:43

no I don't, there was a reason the Germans put them on the front line. Its another way the German badly underestimated the Soviets. Well if we put them here the Soviets wont attack there because it could have a bad effect

Kelvin
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#479

Post by Kelvin » 01 Jun 2016, 08:49

steverodgers801 wrote:no I don't, there was a reason the Germans put them on the front line. Its another way the German badly underestimated the Soviets. Well if we put them here the Soviets wont attack there because it could have a bad effect
German really underestimated Soviet potential but it is make sense before the invasion : to start with : Purge of Army and removal of many inexperienced generals and officers seriously weakened the combat efficency of Soviet army. Secondly, Russian inept performance in Winter war further exposed her weaknesses. Thirdly, purges in the whole country dealt a big blow to Soviet people, possibly laid a seed for another revolution once foreign enemy invaded the country and then Soviet army was beaten in initial battles.

On German side, German army had several million battle hardened veteran soldiers after a serious of victorious campaign. The destruction of French, Belgian, Dutch, Polish, Yugolsav and Greek armies in a short period of time raised German morale signicantly. The destruction of Soviet troop seemed to be easy job in comparison with sea and air attack on British empire.

In 1941, even Hitler wanted to focus on knocking Briitsh out of the war before invasion of Russia seemed impossible. Strong RN and RAF was gurantee to Briitsh homeland safety, Battle of Britain was example. For invasion of British oversea territories. Capture of Gibralter needed Franco 's help and capture of Malta was possbile but German had to suffer heavy casualties like Crete. For invasion of Middle East and Egypt. For oversea invasion needed a lot of build up and needed many ships nad aircraft and material and German would spend 1 year to establish those material base, German navy 's Meditterean sea strategy was not realistic in 1940 and 1941.

So Invasion of Soviet and winning the war is viable option in 1941, of course, Once German entered Russia, they found it was a different world, completely contrary to their world view and the enemies they met before. Many question marks still in Geramn military leadership. 8O

Erwinn
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Re: Germany winning on the Eastern Front

#480

Post by Erwinn » 01 Jun 2016, 11:07

Okay, you leave British on their island. Force Middle East into a stalemate and do not make any OTL mistakes. For example, wait at El Agheila or at Tobruk, rather than trying to capture Suez.

Still, you will lose the war because of a show off in politics - DoW on USA while Britain is still standing. Giving them a huge island base in the process. :P

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