Could Germany Have Won?

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
Post Reply
davidjwest
Member
Posts: 6
Joined: 06 Jun 2014, 19:12

Could Germany Have Won?

#1

Post by davidjwest » 08 Jun 2014, 13:27

Would a German victory have been possible given certain different scenarios?

I don't personally think there's a single change that would have caused this but perhaps several different plans/mindsets may have brought it about.

1. Hitler keeps his superiority complex under wraps and doesn't persecute the Jews, Gypsies, Slavs, Russians etc etc. This would mean the talented German scientists such as Einstein etc don't leave which would give a big boost to German research and possibly leads them to the A Bomb first.

This would also give Germany access to potential extra manpower for more soldiers and equipment, "free" workers are more productive than forced slaves and they don't sabotage what they are making either.

Also the invasion of Russia would generally be met with friendly civilians who felt like they were being liberated from Communism.

2. Hitler gets a reality check about the chances of Britain surrendering or coming to terms.

Hitler realises that Britain will need to be defeated and builds some landing craft for Sealion and prepares for a longer war of attrition in the air, either before or after Barbarossa.

3. The Enigma machine is made secure.

4. German research into new weapons such as jet fighters isn't curtailed. The Germans were so successful early in the war that a lot of research projects were scrapped or reduced, for example the ME 262.

5. Hitler doesn't ally with Japan and doesn't declare war on the US - this was just silly.

There's probably a lot more but please discuss.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#2

Post by ljadw » 08 Jun 2014, 14:09

1)Einstein had nothing to do with the A Bomb,and Germany had not the means to produce the A Bomb,besides,the ABomb was not and would not be deciding .


2)Sea Lion was out of the question

3)Germany dit not lose because Enigma was not very secure

4)One can argue that the development of the jet fighter was a mistake for Germany,besides,the Allies also had jet fighters .And,the Germans were not succesful early in the war .

5)The German DOW on the US was not silly,as it was more than probable that there would be a war between Germany and the US in 1942.


Graeme Sydney
Member
Posts: 877
Joined: 17 Jul 2005, 16:19
Location: Australia

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#3

Post by Graeme Sydney » 08 Jun 2014, 17:04

You certainly know how to ask the Big Question. I'm not certain if this should be asked and answered under the category of 'history' so I'll be brief.

To start at the beginning, define what you mean by 'have won'.

If you mean 'could Germany regain its rightful and natural geo-political position in Europe and the world' then the answer would be yes.

If you mean 'could Germany achieve the geo-political aims of Hitler and Nazism' then then answer would be no.

But with such a large equation there are a lot of mutations in between. I subscribe to the theory of the Inevitability of History which means I believe the most likely outcome is the second proposition or a very close mutation of the actual history.

ChrisDR68
Member
Posts: 212
Joined: 13 Oct 2013, 12:16

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#4

Post by ChrisDR68 » 09 Jun 2014, 01:06

I think Germany could have forced a stalemate.

After the fall of France Hitler decides on a defensive posture only towards Britain which means no u-boat campaign, no Battle Of Britain and only defensive air battles when British aircraft overfly German held territory.

This should ensure the United States doesn't get involved in the war as the UK is not directly threatened with invasion and no American shipping is being sunk.

If Hitler still wanted to invade Soviet Russia (and as long as he was Fuhrer and alive he almost certainly would) then wait until May 1942 and do it with a properly supplied and equiped invading force and have a plan to conquer European Russia in 2 full campaigns (1942 and 1943).

Either base the defence of the territory conquered on the Volga river (which covers roughly the southern two thirds of Russia going south to north) or on the Ural Mountains should the German army get that far during their 1943 campaign.

With Britain in the west not strong enough on their own to invade northern Europe and the German well dug in behind their eastern frontier they would be tough to defeat long term.

Britain and Russia may well have been forced to accept the new de facto status quo which in effect would be a strategic stalemate.

davidjwest
Member
Posts: 6
Joined: 06 Jun 2014, 19:12

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#5

Post by davidjwest » 09 Jun 2014, 09:51

ljadw wrote:1)Einstein had nothing to do with the A Bomb,and Germany had not the means to produce the A Bomb,besides,the ABomb was not and would not be deciding .
I said scientists "such as Einstein".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein%E ... 1rd_letter

Eistein's letter instigated the US efforts to produce the A Bomb, the German's eventually gave up on the bomb as they didn't think it was possible to build one, at least not at great cost. The Bomb is just one area of research however that Germany could have done better at if so many of their scientists hadn't left the country due to Hitler's hatred.
ljadw wrote: 3)Germany did not lose because Enigma was not very secure
They arguably lost the critical Battle of Kursk due to it, the British knew of the German attack days before it happened and the Russian spies in Bletchley Park told Stalin, so the Russians had time to make preparations for it.
ljadw wrote: 4)One can argue that the development of the jet fighter was a mistake for Germany,besides,the Allies also had jet fighters .And,the Germans were not successful early in the war .
Germany was very successful early in the war, apart from the odd relatively minor setback it wasn't until 1942 that things started going wrong and not until 1943 that the war turned decisively against them. The only Allied jet in service before the end of the was was the Gloster Meteor that was slower than the ME 262.
ljadw wrote: 5)The German DOW on the US was not silly,as it was more than probable that there would be a war between Germany and the US in 1942.
What benefits did Germany gain by this DOW?

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#6

Post by ljadw » 09 Jun 2014, 10:24

davidjwest wrote:
ljadw wrote:1)Einstein had nothing to do with the A Bomb,and Germany had not the means to produce the A Bomb,besides,the ABomb was not and would not be deciding .
I said scientists "such as Einstein".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein%E ... 1rd_letter

Eistein's letter instigated the US efforts to produce the A Bomb, the German's eventually gave up on the bomb as they didn't think it was possible to build one, at least not at great cost. The Bomb is just one area of research however that Germany could have done better at if so many of their scientists hadn't left the country due to Hitler's hatred.
ljadw wrote: 3)Germany did not lose because Enigma was not very secure
They arguably lost the critical Battle of Kursk due to it, the British knew of the German attack days before it happened and the Russian spies in Bletchley Park told Stalin, so the Russians had time to make preparations for it.
ljadw wrote: 4)One can argue that the development of the jet fighter was a mistake for Germany,besides,the Allies also had jet fighters .And,the Germans were not successful early in the war .
Germany was very successful early in the war, apart from the odd relatively minor setback it wasn't until 1942 that things started going wrong and not until 1943 that the war turned decisively against them. The only Allied jet in service before the end of the was was the Gloster Meteor that was slower than the ME 262.
ljadw wrote: 5)The German DOW on the US was not silly,as it was more than probable that there would be a war between Germany and the US in 1942.
What benefits did Germany gain by this DOW?
1) Germany never could have built the A Bomb: it was not a question of scientists(Germany had enough scientists),but it was a question of technicians and raw materials (heavy water)

2) About Enigma and Kursk : this is only postwar propaganda by the Ultra lobby (Hinsley): the Russian spy at BP (Cairncross) CLAIMED that he warned Moscow,but there is no proof at all for this assertion;besides,Kursk was something unimportant if one is looking at the big picture .

3)After the fall of France (june 1940) ,it was over for the Germans : what followed was (with the exception of the Balkans) a series of failures and defeats .

That the Meteor was slower does not mean that he was inferior .

Sid Guttridge
Member
Posts: 10158
Joined: 12 Jun 2008, 12:19

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#7

Post by Sid Guttridge » 09 Jun 2014, 11:53

The answer to these questions is always the same - Yes, provided one side makes more mistakes than it did historically and the other less. Under these circumstance even Luxembourg could have won WWII!

Sid

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#8

Post by LWD » 09 Jun 2014, 14:48

It should be pointed out that we have had this conversation before. I would not be surprised to see this thread closed and/or merged with one of the previous threads.
ljadw wrote:1)Einstein had nothing to do with the A Bomb,and Germany had not the means to produce the A Bomb,besides,the ABomb was not and would not be deciding .
As mentioned Einstein did indeed have an impact on the Manhatten project although he did not work directly on it. The latter part of your post reveals a serious problem with your analysis however. It can indeed be argued that the Abomb was in and of itself not decisive but then no one thing was. Some things were more important than others and the atomic bomb ranks rather high on that list though.
2)Sea Lion was out of the question
Not really. A succsesful Sea Lion though was highly improbable (and that's being generous).
5)The German DOW on the US was not silly,as it was more than probable that there would be a war between Germany and the US in 1942.
We're actually in agreement here. In some ways Hitler might have been able to time it better but Drumbeat certainly makes an argument for it being a not unreasonable action at the time.
ljadw wrote: 1) Germany never could have built the A Bomb: it was not a question of scientists(Germany had enough scientists),but it was a question of technicians and raw materials (heavy water)
That is not correct. Now how long it would take them is an open question particuarly since they seemed to have gone down some blind ends and didn't have a well coordinated program but eventually the could and would likely have created one.
... Kursk was something unimportant if one is looking at the big picture .
While it doesn't have the import some ascribe to it I certainly wouldn't agree that it was "unimportant if one is looking at the big picture"

RichTO90
Member
Posts: 4238
Joined: 22 Dec 2003, 19:03

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#9

Post by RichTO90 » 09 Jun 2014, 15:45

ljadw wrote:2) About Enigma and Kursk : this is only postwar propaganda by the Ultra lobby (Hinsley): the Russian spy at BP (Cairncross) CLAIMED that he warned Moscow,but there is no proof at all for this assertion;besides,Kursk was something unimportant if one is looking at the big picture .
The brush you paint with keeps getting wider and wider, but provides less and less accuracy on the subject.

Hinsley was an "Ultra lobby"? What is that? In the spring of 1943 the British government informed the Soviet government of what they had determined regarding a German attack at Kursk. Hinsley documents that and the Enigma decrypts that were the background (which source was not revealed to the Soviets...although they knew what it was by their penetration of Bletchley). That is not a "lobby", but a simple recounting of facts.

YURI MODIN may be your "Ultra lobby", since it is he who claims that Cairncross provided warning and it is MODIN who has claimed that was the cause of the German loss.

Kursk was not "unimportant", it was in fact a major part of the "big picture" developing during 1943, which included the destruction of German forces at Stalingrad in February, in Tunisia in May, the collapse of Italy in September, and the development of the CBO in the fall. They were all important and none were unimportant, but qualifying one as the most or least important is an exercise in tail chasing.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#10

Post by ljadw » 09 Jun 2014, 16:37

LWD wrote:.
As mentioned Einstein did indeed have an impact on the Manhatten project although he did not work directly on it. The latter part of your post reveals a serious problem with your analysis however. It can indeed be argued that the Abomb was in and of itself not decisive but then no one thing was.
ljadw wrote: 1) Germany never could have built the A Bomb: it was not a question of scientists(Germany had enough scientists),but it was a question of technicians and raw materials (heavy water)
That is not correct. Now how long it would take them is an open question particuarly since they seemed to have gone down some blind ends and didn't have a well coordinated program but eventually the could and would likely have created one.
... Kursk was something unimportant if one is looking at the big picture .
While it doesn't have the import some ascribe to it I certainly wouldn't agree that it was "unimportant if one is looking at the big picture"[/quote]

1) Einstein : if he died in 1941,the Manhattan project still would be realized .
2) It was impossible for the third reich to produce the Bomb,before it was destroyed .
3) The ABomb : as the ABomb was not decisive for the outcome of the war between Japan and the US (Japan was already defeated before Hiroshima),why would the Bomb (if Germany had him in 1944/45) change the outcome of the war between Germany and the Allies /SU ? Germany was already defeated BEFORE Overlord,BEFORE Citadelle.And,if some one is arguiing : if Germany had the Bomb in 1940,my answer is : if Britain had teleporters in 1939 :both are on the same level of ridiculousness.

Germany was doomed,with or without the possession of the ABomb .
4)Kursk : even if Citadel had been a success,the outcome of the war would not have changed : the Soviets still would be in Berlin .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#11

Post by ljadw » 09 Jun 2014, 16:57

About Hinsley and the Ultra lobby :there is no proof at all that the Kremlin took any notion of the British messages about Kursk ,the Kremlin had its own intelligence which wasas good as Ultra .I also like to see WHAT BP knew about Citadel,probably not much,as only a small part of the Enigma messages were decoded/decrypted by BP.About Cairncross : we only have his word,and the word of a traitor who 50 years after the events is boasting about his important role,is not enough for me .Besides,how would Cairncross be in possession of the Citadel messages? How would he smuggle them out of BP,how would he give them to the Soviets ? Would he ring at the Soviet embassy and say : I am an agent of the GRU and I have important news about a German offensive in the Kursk region ?

The whole Ultra myth is a case of national pride (as said Paspartoo);I would call it :chauvinism :US boasted : we were the arsenal of democracy and without LL ,the SU was lost;the French boasted that the resistance liberated France,the Germans :we had the Tiger II and good generals,the Soviets : 90% of the German losses happened in the East .

And Britain ? It had nothing ,till....the Ultra story became public and then,the Ultra lobby could boast : victory in NA : Ultra,defeat of the U Boats : Ultra,Kursk : Ultra .

All the usual chauvinistic boasting which was enthusiastically welcomed by the uninformed media who would inform the public .

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#12

Post by ljadw » 09 Jun 2014, 17:41

RichTO90 wrote:
The brush you paint with keeps getting wider and wider, but provides less and less accuracy on the subject.
.[/quote]

You can't expect me to write a paper of 20 pages on the influence of the Enigma messages on the outcome of Citadel,as a reply to someone who is claiming that Britain won Citadel ,especially as I have the same shoulder problem as you,but on both shouders and incurable .

Other point :what's important is not the reliability of intelligence messages,but the willingness of the politicians/military to believe them :why would anyone at the Kremlin believe a word from a message of a Western intelligence service ? And,especially from some one as Cairncross ?

Besides,they all had their secret services(Britain,US,USSSR,Germany,Italy ,Japan),and,one can not say that A was good and B bad .

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#13

Post by LWD » 09 Jun 2014, 18:18

ljadw wrote: ... 1) Einstein : if he died in 1941,the Manhattan project still would be realized .
First an aside: It would really help make things clearer if you didn't mess up the quote function.
As to the above. That may be (although if you are talking about in the time frame of the war it is hardly certain) but it is irrelvant to the point(s) being made.
2) It was impossible for the third reich to produce the Bomb,before it was destroyed .
Or not. It rather depends on what assumptions you make and when the Point of Departure (PoD) is from the historical time line.
3) The ABomb : as the ABomb was not decisive for the outcome of the war between Japan and the US (Japan was already defeated before Hiroshima),why would the Bomb (if Germany had him in 1944/45) change the outcome of the war between Germany and the Allies /SU ? Germany was already defeated BEFORE Overlord,BEFORE Citadelle.And,if some one is arguiing : if Germany had the Bomb in 1940,my answer is : if Britain had teleporters in 1939 :both are on the same level of ridiculousness.

Germany was doomed,with or without the possession of the ABomb .
4)Kursk : even if Citadel had been a success,the outcome of the war would not have changed : the Soviets still would be in Berlin .
You are a master of the strawman aren't you? In any case the same can be said about any single event, item, or technology. No one thing would likely change the course of the war. That doesn't mean that they were unimportant or that several in consort won't have any impact.

RichTO90
Member
Posts: 4238
Joined: 22 Dec 2003, 19:03

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#14

Post by RichTO90 » 09 Jun 2014, 18:27

ljadw wrote:You can't expect me to write a paper of 20 pages on the influence of the Enigma messages on the outcome of Citadel,as a reply to someone who is claiming that Britain won Citadel ,especially as I have the same shoulder problem as you,but on both shouders and incurable .
No, I don't expect that at all and you have my sincere sympathy; it explains a lot.

However, that has nothing to do with a supposed "Hinsley Ultra lobby". Who claimed that "Britain won Citadel"? Certainly Harry Hinsley didn't. He simply stated what happened. British intelligence developed an assessment that the Germans were going to execute a major attack at Kursk, working from decrypts mostly of Luftwaffe signals.

If you are you complaining about Yuri Modin's account, why not just say so?
Other point :what's important is not the reliability of intelligence messages,but the willingness of the politicians/military to believe them :why would anyone at the Kremlin believe a word from a message of a Western intelligence service ? And,especially from some one as Cairncross ?
Please don't presume to lecture me on the interaction between intelligence collection and assessment and its role in military-political policy decision making. I suspect I have closer understanding than you.

In any case that is not what I was questioning you on. I asked you what "Hinsley Ultra lobby" you thought you were referring to. You are the one raising the shibboleth of the Kremlin belief and Cairncross, not me.
Besides,they all had their secret services(Britain,US,USSSR,Germany,Italy ,Japan),and,one can not say that A was good and B bad .
I'm sorry, but again that has nothing to do with what was being asked.

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: Could Germany Have Won?

#15

Post by LWD » 09 Jun 2014, 18:34

ChrisDR68 wrote:I think Germany could have forced a stalemate....
Britain and Russia may well have been forced to accept the new de facto status quo which in effect would be a strategic stalemate.
One has to be careful how one defines things like "victory" or "stalemate" in these sort of situations. Personally I don't think the Nazis could survive a stalemate. Indeed had the war not happened I'm not sure they would have lasted until 1950. Especially when you consider the fact that the Nazi "economic miracle" was essentially a huge Ponzy scheme that was about to fall apart prior to the war. Germany on the other hand might have been in a position in a case like that where it could be considered a "win".

Post Reply

Return to “German Strategy & General German Military Discussion”