Could Germany Have Won?

[BDV]

Scooby doo fantasy, the German army could not move in the mud so it would be November, which is the start of the snow season which degraded the German army performance even more. Stolfi completely ignores the fact that it was the army planners who thought it would be necessary to clear the flanks of AGC. Hitler simply went with what he was advised. Again you and Stolfi completely ignore the German logistical situation and think that just moving lines around will win the war.

It's the same generals that planned on capturing Leningrad with the assets AGN had at the beginning. Which explains Erich "monica" Manstein's contention that Leningrad was ripe for the taking after the fall of Pskov (because the soviet units that bashed 56th Panzer Korps' brains in just materialized out of ether in the middle of Novgorodian marshes 6 days after the fall of Pskov).

It was the German army that planned for the three week stop because of logistics. Smolensk was as far as they could go without a halt.

That too is problematic, though as AGN drive on Leningrad was in full swing three weeks after Barbarossa.

Didn't Glantz receive his share of criticism, though?

[uhu]

Mid july 1941 was the turning point in the war, decisions made then doomed Germany to defeat. It could have been different because the highway from Smolensk to Moscow lay open with nothing but unorganized troop formation in the way.

Stolfi is so very wrong. The Soviets had plenty of troops available and had already set up a defense line east of Smolensk. After that there was another line before Moscow. Its simple math, due to the weakness of German supply lines it would be October before the Germans would be ready to attack Moscow and that is the start of mud season. After that is the snow. Stolfi completely ignores any Soviet sources and relies only of vey biased German accounts.

"Plenty of troops". Yes, but those troops were worse led and trained than those on the border in June. One cannot dismiss the German views either.

Same "unorganized troop formation" confabulation was issued by Manstein about the Pskov-Leningrad axis. He got his ass handed to him by these "unorganized" units a mere 7 days after the fall of Pskov.

However, a successfull Taifun-like action, starting from Rzhev-Vyazma line on October 1st would likely net Moscow (whether for good or just for a Mega-Stalingrad is a different question).

OTOH for such thing to be feasible, the 3rd and 4th Panzer groups and the remainder of the AGN need to be attacking East during August, not trodding through the Luga basin marshes like they did from mid-July to mid-September.

One straightforward way to achieve this can be (as far as this map taken from the "operationbarbarossa.net" website is accurate):


After fall of Pskov, the 41st corps attacks towards north, in conjunction with the 50th Corps in a northern direction, on the WEST side of Lake Peipus, while the 26th corps keep attacking along the Riga Gulf coastline. Meanwhile 1st and 38th infantry corps advance eastward south of Pskov, fanning out to cover the space between Pskov and M9 highway (Riga-Moskow line). The 2nd, 10th and 28th infantry corps never swing northeast, but keep compass straight East, but more battle damaged/slower elements may remain behind to help the 1st and the 38th, as the arc connecting Pskov and the 56th motorized and the 16th Army expands.

In early August, 41st may also be able to join the 56th in the attack East, and mid-August, one of the two infantry corps in Estonia (either the 26th or the 50th). Ideally both, as security of the Narva line and Baltic would be ensured by troops leeched from the Western defenses, as the threat of a British surprise, once August 1941 was entered, become vanishingly small. And by Spring 1942, Baltic country military units should be starting to provide their own defense against the Bolshevik Horde.

[steverodgers801]

October 1st is the start of the mud, the Germans would not be able to move until the frosts start. There was also the mandatory logistic break in august so it will not be till September till the army can move. The problem with the German accounts is they completely discount
Soviet resistance and the logistic problems. Guderian would have us believe that he could simply march to Moscow with out any help, yet there were severe problems with stragglers attacking German supply convoys. His book fails to mention how he wanted three full infantry corps to protect his supply routes so he could move forward after Smolensk. In August the tanks corps were about 65% toe levels and it was even worse for trucks.

[uhu]

Here are the Russian newly trained troops, I have to admit it would take time to drive through those formations.
http://www.mandatory.com/2013/06/14/12- ... r-photos/3

[BDV]

I reckon RKKA had the last laugh on mass of POWs photos.

That picture, if I'm not mistaken, is also the last of its kind - the outcome of the failed 1942 Izyum Offensive.

[uhu]

Thanks for the rare photo, very interesting, the only photo I've seen where the Germans outnumber the Russians!

[BDV]

October 1st is the start of the mud, the Germans would not be able to move until the frosts start. There was also the mandatory logistic break in august so it will not be till September till the army can move. The problem with the German accounts is they completely discount Soviet resistance and the logistic problems.

Historically, Germans had zero problems the first three weeks of October.

Guderian would have us believe that he could simply march to Moscow with out any help, yet there were severe problems with stragglers attacking German supply convoys. His book fails to mention how he wanted three full infantry corps to protect his supply routes so he could move forward after Smolensk. In August the tanks corps were about 65% toe levels and it was even worse for trucks.

Manstein, Gudeian, and the like either had no concept of what hit them, or are lying or a combination of the two. Whatever the case, not a good sign for the war fortunes of Germany.

[steverodgers801]

sorry, the army came to a halt when the muds came. Don't know where you are getting your info.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bunde ... _Autos.jpg just look at he photos

[BDV]

Indeed the first snow came on October 6, but the German advance did not slow down until the third week, when Soviet resistance, as much as mud were IMO significant headaches. My source is "Decision in the East" Ziemke/Bauer.

PS observe the time stamp on the photo November 1941.

[steverodgers801]

Look at that picture of the horses, how far do you think that horses could really move in that mud???

[BDV]

It took a while for the ground to get into that shape. OTOH, the leadership obviously did not take THAT into account, i.e. the second most prominent climatologic peculiarity of the theater of operations. Well, Germans did not take the foremost climatologic feature, i.e. the temperature drops in December-January, that seriously, so I guess that's not that shocking.

But, with such leadership, the real question is obviously not "Could Germany Have Won?" Rather, how did they get that far?

[steverodgers801]

The main reason for the German success was the Soviets were in a major transition, commanders were still learning their jobs, the BT series of tanks were being phased out, but the T34 was not yet in full production, a major lack of command and control capacity especially in radios, a lack of tactical flexibility for officers and a lot of new recruits learning how to be a soldier. The Germans knew weather would be a factor if the campaign lasted, so they just pretended the campaign would be over in three months. The Japanese made similar errors in attacking the allies, especially America.

[Graeme Sydney]

The main reason for the German success was the Soviets were in a major transition, commanders were still learning their jobs, the BT series of tanks were being phased out, but the T34 was not yet in full production, a major lack of command and control capacity especially in radios, a lack of tactical flexibility for officers and a lot of new recruits learning how to be a soldier. .

The purges; a major factor, yes; the "main reason", no.

[David1819]

If Hitler had mobilized Germany into a full war economy before operation Barbarossa and went by the suggestions of his generals through the entire operation of Barbarossa then I strongly believe the USSR would have collapsed. I wont speculate any further than that too many variables to consider

[steverodgers801]

David Germany did not have the resources to go into production mode like the allies did and they were already stretched on manpower. Hitler wanted the resources of Russia to be able to expand production. it didn't help that Germany was very inefficient in what it did produce