At what point did Germany lose WW2?

Discussions on High Command, strategy and the Armed Forces (Wehrmacht) in general.
Post Reply
Graeme Sydney
Member
Posts: 877
Joined: 17 Jul 2005, 16:19
Location: Australia

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#526

Post by Graeme Sydney » 20 Feb 2014, 07:13

flakbait wrote: By the same token, by suddenly striking N against the Soviet Union, this would gain Japan exactly how much oil ? From a purely strategic point of view, striking the then Soviet Union in Dec 1941 helps Japan out `how` ?
Historically Japan first looked longingly at Manchuria and the Russian East (the closeness to Japan been the attraction). It was mainly the Battles of Khalkhyn Gol that changed their minds and the territorial ambitions, and their ambitions facing south.

If Russia was in a significantly weaker position at the end of '41 due to greater German success in op Barbarossa, maybe Japan's decision might have been different. (But they still would have needed DEI oil).

Oil was an issue but there are means of obtaining and securing oil other than occupation. The Dutch would have keep selling them oil 'till the cows came home'. It was under American pressure that the Dutch imposed the embargo. And even then they did it with great reluctance. If Germany hadn't been occupying Holland at that moment the answer may have been quite different.

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 19:02

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#527

Post by steverodgers801 » 20 Feb 2014, 09:33

Actually the Dutch agreed along with the Americans to stop selling oil to Japan after the occupation of Indochina, there were no other sources of oil available. The British and Soviets needed what they had


User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#528

Post by LWD » 20 Feb 2014, 15:27

ljadw wrote: ...
1) Ian Kershaw:Fateful choices : 10 decisions that changed the world 1940/41:

As late as 29 november, the day before the Imperial Conference CONFIRMED the decision to go to war,MOST of the jushin-the group of senior statesmen,former PM's,still wanted to PREVENT the conflagration they feared so much .
Which clearly implies that the decision was made previously.
3: The Imperial Conference will decide on the national will to declare war (December 1,PM)
Note that said declaration of war didn't happen until after the attack on Pear Harbor. So it's not clear how much impact such a decision had on the actual decision to go to war.

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#529

Post by LWD » 20 Feb 2014, 15:36

Graeme Sydney wrote: ...
O-I-L and the DEI and the push to the south had only a small part to play in this clash. ....
Certainly the roots of the problem were deeper but oil became the forcing card in late 41 and thus it was more than a "small part".
Graeme Sydney wrote: ...If Russia was in a significantly weaker position at the end of '41 due to greater German success in op Barbarossa, maybe Japan's decision might have been different. (But they still would have needed DEI oil).

Oil was an issue but there are means of obtaining and securing oil other than occupation. The Dutch would have keep selling them oil 'till the cows came home'. It was under American pressure that the Dutch imposed the embargo. And even then they did it with great reluctance. If Germany hadn't been occupying Holland at that moment the answer may have been quite different.
In late 41 that was off the table indeed even in early 41 it would have been questionable at least as far as additional supplies are concerned. Once the embargo went into effect Japan needed more oil fast. In ~1year their military and industry would be severely affected. What other sources are available in that time frame?

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#530

Post by ljadw » 20 Feb 2014, 17:05

LWD wrote:
ljadw wrote: ...
1) Ian Kershaw:Fateful choices : 10 decisions that changed the world 1940/41:

As late as 29 november, the day before the Imperial Conference CONFIRMED the decision to go to war,MOST of the jushin-the group of senior statesmen,former PM's,still wanted to PREVENT the conflagration they feared so much .
Which clearly implies that the decision was made previously.
3: The Imperial Conference will decide on the national will to declare war (December 1,PM)
Note that said declaration of war didn't happen until after the attack on Pear Harbor. So it's not clear how much impact such a decision had on the actual decision to go to war.
IMHO,if a decision has to be confirmed later,this implies that the decision is not valid til it has been confirmed.

If the Imperial Conference has to decide on 1 december 1941 on the DOW,this implies that before 1 december,there were only propositions,suggestions,etc,but no decision ,or decisions which were not decisive . 8-)

From history.army: mil/books


Chapter one: pré-war Japanese military preparations :

By 5 november 1941,the Imperial Japanese government had positively committed itself to taking up arms against the US,the UK and the Netherlands IFby the first part of december no diplomatic solution of the Pacific crisis appeared attainable .This formal :wink: decision was made at the Imperial Conference of 5 november,7 days after the formation of the Tojo government .

My comment : de facto,the Japanese government had decided nothing : the DOW would depend on something unknown that maybe would happen in the near future .
It is the same as saying : if my aunt will die this year,and if I am her heir,I will buy a Mercedes .

Besides : if by the first part of december there was a diplomatic solution of the crisis,what would the Japanese government do ?

RichTO90
Member
Posts: 4238
Joined: 22 Dec 2003, 19:03

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#531

Post by RichTO90 » 20 Feb 2014, 17:11

ljadw wrote:If the Imperial Conference has to decide on 1 december 1941 on the DOW,this implies that before 1 december,there were only propositions,suggestions,etc,but no decision ,or decisions which were not decisive . 8-)
No, you cannot be right because they did not decide to drop bombs before 0753 Honolulu Time 7 December 1941. Thus, your suggestions that 1 december 1941 decision may or may not be de facto decision cannot be suggestion decisive since that is before DOW after start.

Or something like that. :roll:

Graeme Sydney
Member
Posts: 877
Joined: 17 Jul 2005, 16:19
Location: Australia

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#532

Post by Graeme Sydney » 21 Feb 2014, 05:00

LWD wrote: Certainly the roots of the problem were deeper but oil became the forcing card in late 41 and thus it was more than a "small part".
I'm not sure of the time line but there is no question that by late '41 Japan had to either kowtow to the American demands or fight (which meant grab the oil and DEI's).

But Japanese imperialism wasn't driven by the need for oil and DEI. Japanese imperialism was driven by the need for resources and resources security (oil being one of the resources needed) especially food security.

IOW Japan felt compelled and forced into an unwanted war by America. IOW Japan saw kowtowing to American demands as giving up her striving for resources and resources security.

flakbait
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 22 Oct 2013, 02:37

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#533

Post by flakbait » 21 Feb 2014, 09:05

The FACTS facing Imperial Japan in mid 1941: A: The historically documented and apparently economically successful rise of nationalism and military dictatorships in the very late 1920s and 1930s was also strongly felt in Imperial Japan, both because of real Western discrimination as well as the effects of the Great Depression. B: Being an island nation, Imperial Japan was largely unable to produce the required raw materials necessary to support her own economy. C: This required that Japan was completely dependent upon her merchant fleet to meet the needs for imports of almost all these materials as well as exporting finished products. This also required a strong capable Navy to protect these ships. D: The perceived lack of rewards for supporting the Allied forces in the 1st WW left Japan unhappy, the Naval Treaties of the 1920s and 1930s further deeply offended the Japanese military particularly. E: While Japan actively and ultimately aggressively sought foreign territorial gains in her quest for raw materials as she had herself watched the Dutch, Russians, British, Spanish and Americans pursue in Asia and in the Pacific, she found herself heavily criticized on almost all sides by her former Allies, which perhaps as her statesmen pointed out was in fact 2 faced of them, regarding Japanese attempts to do exactly the same thing. F: With the beginning of the oil embargo, Imperial Japan correctly realized that within no more than 18 months at best both the Japanese economy and military would effectively become crippled. G: That with her Axis alliance with Nazi Germany and Italy, the beginning of WW2 and the fall of France and Holland, and the weakening of Britain, an unexpected window of opportunity opened, however, how long it would remain possible to act was already closing, due to the oil embargo. H: That due to the intense hyper ultra nationalism the Imperial military largely believed the national spirit would overcome any and all difficulties, inflict swift crippling defeats on her opponents who would quickly sue for peace at any price, allowing Imperial Japan to retain her new conquests. I: With the ultra nationalism, the leaders of Imperial Japan rightly feared that if they failed to act, younger hot headed junior officers would certainly overthrow the current government and begin the Pacific and Asian conquests, regardless of the ultimate consequences...the die was thus cast.

steverodgers801
Member
Posts: 1147
Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 19:02

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#534

Post by steverodgers801 » 21 Feb 2014, 17:36

The imperial decision was on Nov 26 to not stop the war machine. Once the oil embargo was announced Japan had to give up its China conquests or decide to take the resources. Around October was agreed on war as the answer unless the allies agreed to resume supplying the materials. On 11/26, which was the no return point for KB. It wasn't an unwanted war since Japan had been fighting China for years already.

flakbait
Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 22 Oct 2013, 02:37

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#535

Post by flakbait » 22 Feb 2014, 03:23

As you too have pointed out, the younger generation of military officers demanded their own chance for glory and gain, and if swiftly committing mass assasinations of their superior officers and hesitant government leaders was deemed necessary (the Emperor excepted of course), then these war hungry men would GLADLY be the very ones to slash to death anyone in their way with their own hands. When a High Command and/ or national government lacks either the will or ability to control and/or discipline it`s own junior officers a disaster surely awaits...and in fact it was 1 of the strongest reasons for going to war.

Gotzingen
Member
Posts: 45
Joined: 23 Jul 2004, 14:38
Location: NY/Europe

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#536

Post by Gotzingen » 07 Mar 2014, 16:56

7th December, 1941: the American response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour permanently removed the threat of a Japanese "back door" attack on the USSR. Stalin rightly figured Japan would have its hands full for the foreseeable future and was able to transfer 500,000 fresh, winter-warfare ready Russia troops who had been guarding Siberia to Moscow just as the exhausted Wehrmacht was at the end of its supply lines.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#537

Post by ljadw » 07 Mar 2014, 18:56

I am afraid this is an old fable,baron von Münchhausen would approvingly comment : the Sovier winteroffensive started BEFORE Pearl Harbour,and besides the few Siberian units that were transferred to the West in the summer were not better and did not better than the average Soviet units .

Gotzingen
Member
Posts: 45
Joined: 23 Jul 2004, 14:38
Location: NY/Europe

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#538

Post by Gotzingen » 08 Mar 2014, 00:23

It's no more an old fable than a lot of the other suppositions in this thread. Richard Sorge had told Stalin, on September 14, 1941, that Japan would not attack the USSR. Sorge had previously told Stalin that Barbarossa would start on 20 June 1941 -- and had lost credibility when it didn't. Two days later, Stalin had reason to trust him again. So Stalin started moving troops westward soon after September 14 (and at the latest by October 18, the day Sorge was arrested in Tokyo) and was able to launch his attack before Pearl Harbour.

ljadw
Member
Posts: 15588
Joined: 13 Jul 2009, 18:50

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#539

Post by ljadw » 08 Mar 2014, 07:33

NO :Stalin started moving troops westwards on 23 june 1941: this has been discussed on this forum.

User avatar
BDV
Member
Posts: 3704
Joined: 10 Apr 2009, 17:11

Re: At what point did Germany lose WW2?

#540

Post by BDV » 08 Mar 2014, 16:17

ljadw wrote:NO :Stalin started moving troops westwards on 23 june 1941: this has been discussed on this forum.
There is plenty of revisionist history that the Soviets started doing that BEFORe June 22nd 1941.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

Post Reply

Return to “German Strategy & General German Military Discussion”