How good are Krivosheevs numbers really?

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Politician01
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Joined: 02 Sep 2011, 07:56

How good are Krivosheevs numbers really?

#1

Post by Politician01 » 30 Jul 2015, 18:56

Noticed some large irregularities concerning the numbers given by Krivosheev and would like to hear the opinions on this topic:

Tank+sp production according to Krivo - LL deliveries according to Harrison - Red Army supply according to Krivo

1941 from 22nd June -4700 - 600 - 5600 =300 tanks more than production + LL
1942- 24 500 - 4500 - 28 000 = 1000 tanks less than production + LL
1943- 24 100 - 3200 - 27 300 = 0 exactly as much as production + LL
1944- 29 000 - 3300 - 34 700 = 2400 tanks more than production + LL

Total for period 1941 to 1944 shows a surplus of 1700 tanks that exceed domestic production + LL deliveries

Aircraft production according to Krivo - LL deliveries according to Harrison - Red Army supply according to Krivo

1941 from 22nd June - 11 500 - 800 -11 000 - 1300 aircraft less than production + LL
1942- 25 400 - 4000 - 27 700 - 1700 aircraft less than production + LL
1943- 34 900 - 8400 - 38 200 - 5100 aircraft less than production + LL
1944- 40 200 - 6600 - 43 100 - 3700 aircraft less than production + LL

Total for period 1941 to 1944 shows that 11 800 less aircraft have been supplied to the RA than produced by the Soviets and delivered by LL-
Where have these 11 800 planes gone? Is this just bad counting - or an attempt to decrease Soviet casualty figures?

Art
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Re: How good are Krivosheevs numbers really?

#2

Post by Art » 30 Jul 2015, 20:48

I believe stats on production are well known. See the pages with tanks numbers here:
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/rkkaww2/ ... m#tsp41_45
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/rkkaww2/ ... neral1.htm
We have: Soviet production
1941 - 4 968
1942 - 24 649
1943 - 24 134
1944 - 28 983
US and Commonwealth deliveries (counting T-48 as SP guns):
1941 - 361
1942 - 3514
1943 - 3231
1944 - 4287
Totals:
1941 - 5 329
1942 - 28 163
1943 - 27 365
1944 - 33 270
1941-1944 - 94 127 compared with 95 600 given by Krivosheev. I would say that there is some difference (about 1.6%) indeed, mostly accumulated in the year 1944, while the other years are Ok more or less.


Art
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Re: How good are Krivosheevs numbers really?

#3

Post by Art » 01 Aug 2015, 13:22

There are somewhat different stats on aircraft production during the war. Below several variants are listed:
M. Mukhin "Soviet aircraft industry in the years of the Great Patriotic War", 2011:
1941 (entire year) - 14 946
1942 - 25 348
1943 - 34 639
1944 - 40 261

"Soviet Air Forces in the Great Patriotic War 1941-45 in numbers",1962:
1941 - 15 874
1942 - 25 240
1943 - 34 736
1944 - 40 152

Diary of the People's Commissariat for Aircraft Building (NKAP), published in "1941.Documents", Vol.II, 1998:
1941 - 15 735
1942 - 25 436
1943 - 34 884
1944 - 40 241
The same numbers are reproduced in the "Aircraft building in the USSR (1917-1945)", 1994
Everywhere all types of aircraft (combat and noncombat) are counted. The most serious problem is the production of aircraft 22.06-31.12.1941, no source I've seen gives the number. The known stats are quoted only for combat types: 4130 in the I half and 8247 in the II half of 1941 (People' Commissariat for Aircraft Building". As a source for rough estimate 1473 noncombat airplanes were produced in January-May 1941. Hence total production in the second half of 1941 was not greater than 15 735 - 4130 - 1473 = 10 132.

Foreign airplanes deliveries by years ("Soviet Air Forces in numbers"), all types:
1941 - 740
1942 - 2 604
1943 - 6 323
1944 - 5 887

The sum of production and foreign deliveries, taking NKAP stats as a basis:
1941 (2nd half) - <10 872
1942 - 28 040
1943 - 41 207
1944 - 46 128
Numbers could be smaller somewhat if you take a different source. For comparison Krivosheev's numbers on deliveries:
1941 - 11 000
1942 - 27 700
1943 - 38 200
1944 - 43 100
are smaller by approximately 6300. Again other sources could give somewhat different (by several hundred) result. What is not taken into account here are deliveries of airplanes to civil agencies, shipment to other armies (Chinese, Yugoslav, Polish) and probably certain lag between production and delivery to the military forces.

Art
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Re: How good are Krivosheevs numbers really?

#4

Post by Art » 01 Aug 2015, 13:31

As a simple check: production and deliveries of ground-attack airplanes (IL-2 and IL-10). All these planes were used by military and all were produced in the USSR only which makes it simple to compare:
Production:
1941 (2nd half) - 1 291
1942 - 8 229
1943 - 11 193
1944 - 11 110
Deliveries according to Krivosheev:
1941 (from 22.06) - 1 400
1942 - 7 200
1943 - 11 000
1944 - 10 300
The last set of numbers seems to be understated indeed.

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