Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#241

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 00:32

And last but not least - for now...
I truely hope that you didn't spend a whole lot of time on that research when my initial thread opening post on this topic stated, "I do know that 3 US interceptor squadrons, each of 10 x P-36 fighters, were flying in Panama's rainy season cloudy skies already but AFAIK the 71 more modern P-40s which had just arrived were not operational there until well after Dec.7'41."
I'm glad you put in your conditional "AFAIK" - for you know wrong. I'm not about to do any more typing from the AAF historical document, my index fingers are exhausted, but they ACTUALLY began arriving in late MAY 1941 - EIGHT months before Pearl Harbour. Which is WHY they're listed on that Roster I found as being operational with at least four units in the Canal Zone on the 7th of December 1941.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#242

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 02:09

Sorry, I can't resist THIS one. A transcript of a MAGIC decrypt from a Japanese agent in Panama to Toyko...
J-19
#321 (Part 1 of 4)
Strictly secret.

*Part One not revelant*

2. I hear that the United States has set up in Panama air bases (some of which have - - - - -), anti-aircraft gun bases, and airplane detector bases (some of these detectors are said to be able to discover a plane 200 miles away). Thus we see that in her policy toward South America the United States is now exerting unprecidented pressure.

ARMY 26820 (Japanese) Trans. 12/25/41 (X)
So the Japanese agent was able to report on November 22, 1941 (date of transmission) that the Americans had radar...

ABOUT TEN MONTHS AFTER IT ARRIVED...

And this is the calibre of agent that was to provide DAILY reports on the height of the Dam gates and the height of the water in Gatun Lake?? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Another gem from the same "valuable" asset...
From: Panama (Akiyama)
To: Tokyo
November 22, 1941
J-19
#321 (Part 2 of 4 [a])
Strictly secret.

In spite of the fact that it is in violation of the treaty concluded in 1936, the United States is coercing Panama where the canal is. She is expending vast sums of money there, and if necessary will take still more drastic steps. However the difference in the points of view is forever and eternally a cancer's growth in the relations of the two countries.

3. From the Pacific to the Atlantic coast, between Panama and Colon, there is no thoroughfare. The reason why one has not been constructed, is that the jungle constitutes a natural defense for the canal. As an indication of the United States' policy of defense, lately they have begun to construct a road even of macadam which will probably go as far as Colon. However it is not yet completed. This is an exceptional case in preparation for the possible destruction of

Page 279

the canal. It also seems that when complete the American continental highway will extend as far as the borders of Colombia, but when this will be is uncertain.

ARMY 26821 (Japanese) Trans. 12/25/41 (X)

[a] Part 3, S.I.S. #26794. Part 1, S.I.S. #26820. Part 4 available,
being translated.
I get the feeling his assessment skills are somewhat lacking! :lol: :P Or he was committing the traditional Axis sin in intelligence assessment - looking for the results he WANTED, and interpreting everything TOWARDS that interpretation? Even material that really contradicted it. Hitler made exactly the same mistake in the summer of 1940, when the Germans interpreted the reactions to their various "peace overtures" and psi-war ops as having an effect at changing British public opinion...when they couldn't have been more wrong!!! They looked at newspaper reports of three or four people prosecuted for repeating the material from their fake "British" radio station as a sign of British morale crumbling - and chose to forget about the OTHER forty million or so Britons who ignored it!

Whatever mistakes he was making this guy was seriously poor. The ONLY information of any value he was forwarding was about traffic through the Canal, which he could have got off any shipping agent's noticeboard...


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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#243

Post by Borys » 30 Jan 2009, 07:30

phylo_roadking wrote: 2. I hear that the United States has set up in Panama air bases (some of which have - - - - -), anti-aircraft gun bases, and airplane detector bases (some of these detectors are said to be able to discover a plane 200 miles away). Thus we see that in her policy toward South America the United States is now exerting unprecidented pressure.

ARMY 26820 (Japanese) Trans. 12/25/41 (X)
So the Japanese agent was able to report on November 22, 1941 (date of transmission) that the Americans had radar...

ABOUT TEN MONTHS AFTER IT ARRIVED...

And this is the calibre of agent that was to provide DAILY reports on the height of the Dam gates and the height of the water in Gatun Lake?? :lol: :lol: :lol:
But wouldn't discovering the setup of radar stations, which I'd assume to be classified/secret (at least to some degree), be a bit more difficult than to establish water level, which I'd assume could be checked quiet easily?
Borys
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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#244

Post by Simon K » 30 Jan 2009, 07:37

I think it more likely that there were South American native nationalities in panama (like Argentinian for example) who were much more likely to be efficient operatives than the Japanese agent referred, despite the summer roundup of "Axis Alien sympathisers" who could have gathered useful intelligence.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#245

Post by Sid Guttridge » 30 Jan 2009, 12:01

Hi Phylo,

You ask, "By the way - there's one REALLY major problem with painting their intruders in Pan-Am colours...Anyone know?"

If you already know, why not just tell us instead of posing redundant questions? They just clog up a thread.

I have previously pointed out that Panam did not fly the route across the Pacific into Panama and did not use its Clippers there.

The route was flown by Panagra and it seems to have used landplanes flying from Cali in Colombia to Panama.

The use of PanAm colours was therefore superfluous. If a disguise were to be adopted, it should be in Panagra livery.

Cheers,

Sid.
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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#246

Post by Sid Guttridge » 30 Jan 2009, 12:09

Hi Robdab,

One can lead a horse to water, but one can't make him drink. If you don't have enough interest in your own subject to follow up sources you requested, then there is little more I can do for you.

As a matter of interest, in the light of the discussion above, would you modify your original plan?

If so, could you put up a modified version?

That way we might gauge what progress this discussion is making.

Cheers,

Sid.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#247

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 15:54

But wouldn't discovering the setup of radar stations, which I'd assume to be classified/secret (at least to some degree), be a bit more difficult than to establish water level, which I'd assume could be checked quiet easily?
Borys
The aerials are had to miss! As well as the formation of the two communications companies and their training exercises. Remember, the Germans know about RDF well in advance of September 1939, using the Graf Zeppelin in an attempt to gauge its effectiveness before the war etc. They knew it was for early warning...they JUST didn't know how it was to be used i.e. the connection between the live data garnered and the ground vectoring of fighters onto those targets. Their ally Germany certainly had radar by then, and they were working on their own...so in THIS case its just a case of the agent confirming it had arrived :wink: And took so many months to find out.
You ask, "By the way - there's one REALLY major problem with painting their intruders in Pan-Am colours...Anyone know?"

If you already know, why not just tell us instead of posing redundant questions? They just clog up a thread.
I take it you missed the post regarding exactly WHO owned and ran Pan-Am's/Panagra's depot in Panama and would know ALL their movements, and thus react more quickly to any reports of spurious Pan-Am/Panagra aircraft...? :wink:
I think it more likely that there were South American native nationalities in panama (like Argentinian for example) who were much more likely to be efficient operatives than the Japanese agent referred, despite the summer roundup of "Axis Alien sympathisers" who could have gathered useful intelligence.
Certainly. But if we're positing a dawn take-off for the attackers from so far out at sea...then local agents have to 1/ garner the information on water level AND dam gate position 2/ get it to the Japanese resident 3/ get it encoded and transmitted to Tokyo 4/ get the relevant info re-transmitted to Chitose. Maybe he has a set time to transmit daily and its unsafe to do so at any other time?...We don't know those time details, only the dates of transmission and decoding/translation.

Even IF they could get THAT morning's information - as far as I can see from AAFHS-42, the Canal Zone Department was already through 1941 experimenting with blackout procedures and high-conspicuity paint on vehicles etc. as per the BRITISH black-out - while one of Akiyama's messages to Tokyo specifically mentions that Gatun Dam, the Spillway control house, and the hydro-electric power station are guarded; given also the newspaper report about military pickets in the hills around the lake - at the very least I would assume a night-time guard on the lake edge where possible, or at least near military positions and major installatioins. We even have a PICTURE of one of the pickets! So its going to be physically prohibitive for any locals to get to the lake near any of the major installatons to gauge local water level, and similarly to gauge the position of the gates...

Whatever happens - any information is going to be many hours' out of date before the aircraft leave the Chitose - and running on radio silence on their approach to the Canal Zone they won't get an update for that morning. They're going to have to make their initial go/no-go decision at the point of departure based on yesterday's information...which of course could be completely out of date and wrong for such a major point-of-failure as the dam gates being closed/open.

Remember - every foot the gates are raised reduces the amount of damage done to the gate, and they only have to be raised five feet when the lake is full for the torpedo to pass underneath! If the lake level is lower...the impact point moves down even a closed gate accordingly.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#248

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 17:47

P.S....

The Chitose has a range of 7,800 nautical miles...about the distance from the Home Islands to the Galapagos. So she'll have to take a fleet oiler with her to be able to contemplate getting home again. Any spare from the Pearl Harbour fleet??? AND it doubles the number of surface units for Pan-Am/Panagra aircraft flying in and out of the islands to spot...as well as the Navy's own PBYs...given that the Galapagos belong to the NEUTRAL Ecuador and the presence of ANY military shipping would immediately cause raised eyebrows...

And here at long last is something I've been looking for - an H6K Mavis complete with torpedos!

Image

Apart from the whole impossibility of fitting a housing over both the fins AND the wooden water-brake...AND it looking even LESS convincing - Robert, HOW many tons of extra explosive were you considering carrying on those rather thin supports???

So, now that your attack force is reduced by the carrying capacity of the Chitose to only TWO aircraft....and given that at Pearl Harbour the hit rate for torpedos was only 50% - with one of the aircraft that torpedoed the USS Raleigh manging to totally MISS the STATIONARY 555ft-long cruiser! :lol: - only TWO torpedos can be expected to hit a gate and those ONLY if the the gates AREN'T raised 8O

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#249

Post by robdab » 30 Jan 2009, 20:21

moab76,

Go check out the Alt History folder on Consimworld.com where Robert D has basically conceded defeat there on this. - Sadly I had to admit that I had made a critical source mistake wrt the ability of the Madden Dam to contribute dry season water to the Canal's operations. My source did NOT say what i had believed that it did. My own fault entirely.

But, the discussion goes on. with more facts to be dragged out into the light of day and critically examined.

Some people just like to argue for the sake of arguing. Must have no life as much time as he devotes to this. - Just stolen moments here and there. I have no idea how phylo does it. His output is amazing, even if I don't agree with most of it. I'm still falling behind but hope to catch up on the weekend.

Notice he won't really read a real book on it but just sits there and googles for something that supports him, no matter how out of context it is or suspect the source. - Too little time out from real life to devote to the discussion AND to much research at the same time.

Actually, I suspect he's working on a book for this and just want's every one else to do his research. - Suspect away but such is not the case. A wargame expansion, maybe, but I am not an author nor a wargame designer. I had hoped that more posters here would list good sources so that my limited reading/research time could be best employed but there seems to be little of that happening save for Sid's 6th Air Force source suggestion.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#250

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 20:29

Image

I've been looking more closely at the above pic...does anyone notice anything??? 8O

Look at the position of the torpedo on the port side nearest the camera...in relation to the wing-mounted float...

Could this aircraft actually take off from water with torpedos in place??? To ME it looks as if they would be VERY near the wavetops! Of the one (1) account we have of a torpedo attack by H6Ks....or rather PRESUMED H6Ks as they are just identified IIRC as "fourengined flyingboats" :wink: - we don't ACTUALLY know if this was actually by Mavis' launched from a land base. Remember - we have FAR more data on Mavis' bombing attacks than torpedo ones....

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#251

Post by robdab » 30 Jan 2009, 20:30

phylo_roadking,
Foreign planes were to be escorted by war planes stationed in the Canal Zone."
Sorry for getting behind in my replies but real life intrudes. I hope to be able to catch up again, over the weekend.

As far as the above goes, the question seems to be, would my disguised as Pan-Am Mavis be recognized as being "foreign planes" or not ?

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#252

Post by robdab » 30 Jan 2009, 21:02

Simon K,

My nets are still there.

Yes indeed your 1934 anti-torpedo nets are are still there. And probaly will be for several months of real time until I can head back down the the US archives for more research. Crappy for the ongoing on-line debate but I can see no other way of ferreting out the Dec.1941 situation save for finding a 1941 Panama service vet who worked on/near the Gatun Dam.

I don't know where/how to find one of them.

However, the Madden Dam problem that I created for myself, somewhat trumps your anti-torpedo netting. Even if your atn is found to be missing by 1941, the Madden can still release enough water to keep the ATL torpedo damaged Canal operating at a significant number of ship transits per day, until an average rainy season returns to refill the repaired Canal system.

I had thought that I had found a Madden source that disproved that idea but I was entirely mistaken. The Madden was indeed mentioned but the source actually refered to a different dam completely. A painful OOPs.

At this point, I can only argue that the impact to American morale of any attack on Panama would have been worth the cost of just 3 Mavis to the Japanese, self-deluded as they were wrt America's willingness to fight another overseas war.

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#253

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 21:19

As far as the above goes, the question seems to be, would my disguised as Pan-Am Mavis be recognized as being "foreign planes" or not ?
Robert - they don't need to be recognized as foreign They JUST need to be any aircraft spotted where they're not supposed to be, or not be where any Pan-Am or Panagras aircraft should be...to immediately raise questions. You don't seem to realise how fail-deadly the flight and airspace regulations for the Canal Zone and later the rest of Panama was; ALL aircraft had to fly along specific corridors since 1939 AND we have proof of that actually happening - American AND foreign - while NON-American planes were subject to interception and inspection...this policy later extending to the rest of Panama after December 1940 and the establishment of the Joint Air Board. Because Pan-Am and Panagras flights in and out of Panama had flight plans logged with the Army the locations of ALL their flights were known in advance, and any strays would be investigated on detection or report. EVEN PAN-AM OR PANAGRAS AIRCRAFT WOULD BE INTERCEPTED AND INVESTIGATED IF THEY STRAYED OUTSIDE THE AIR CORRIDORS OR WERE REPORTED WHERE THEY WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO BE.

Ditto for any aircraft observed in the Galapagos; they would be reported to the "Authorities"....in THIS case the Army in Panama...for unidentified aircraft flying without flight plans in the vicinity of a commercial airfield like the commercial field on Baltras - or anywhere - are a hazard to navigation and safety.

Your evasion plan doesn''t actually have any way around the level of regulation the Army had over traffic in and out of Panama from 1939 on. They knew what WAS supposed to be where - and anything that was anywhere else was liable to pursuit and interception. It's a pretty clear either/or.

I presume you haven't yet sourced a copy of AAFHS-42. When you do you'll be suprised at the sheer number of flying hours being flown by Army Air Force pilots in the Cana Zone; tens of thousands of hours a month, on live exercising and training, Army cooperation with AA training (target-towing), bombardment training at the bombing and ground target ranges at Rio Hato, flying to test and train the AWS, transport flights by B-18s...unsuitable or not...to transport men and material around the dozens of auxiliary landing fields - together with the very frequent good-will Air Tours around other Central American nations. So MUCH so that for a couple of months in early 1941 (emphasis on early; the problem began to vanish in May 1941 with the rapid influx starting then of new aircraft and spares) that engine rebuilds due to flying hours was for that short window making aircraft availability very questionable...

In other words - with the Canal Zone AF command being one of the busiest in the service outside the GHQ area despite the dated and cr@ppy aircraft they had, there is EVERY chance that if the weather over the Canal was fine enough for your putative attackers to depart the Chitose on their mission, there would be dozens of USAAF aircraft actually in the air over the Canal Zone and Panama!!! 8O

So not only is the airspace your attackers intend to linger in covered by a network of regulation specifically to prevent stray unidentified aircraft...there will be a LOT of prying eyes around, in the air not just on the ground :lol:

Unless, that is, you choose to believe USAAF pilots fly with their eyes closed...because you haven't found anything saying they didn't :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#254

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 22:08

By the way...

Robert, do you actually know who "Akiyama" was, that he was passing information on Canal transits to Tokyo? :wink: because he's an interesting guy...
From: Panama (Akiyama)
To: Tokyo
November 22, 1941
J19-K9
#321 (Part 3 Of 4 [a])

4. The United States Government is going on the assumption that the attack on the Canal will be made from both air and sea. Especially in preparation for a possible attack from the Pacific side, it has reenforced the special fleet recently, as I have already indicated in my telegram. They have mapped out an area 900 (kilometers?), with the center of the radius at Panama, as a patrol area and are constantly patroling it. The Army has built fortifications here and there in the territory of Panama in which there are 16" and 14" gun emplacements. (These forts are equipped with hygienic facilities. The soldiers are indulging in pleasures. The distance - - - - - of the fortifications if - - - - - - - - - - exceeds 1500 (kilometers?).) In addition, they are endeavoring to guard such vital points as locks, spillways, and especially the control tower controlling the spillway on Lake Gatun and the electric plant.

ARMY 26794 (Japanese) Trans. 12/25/41 (2)
Would this be the SAME Americans that weren't guarding anything around the Gatun Dam at the start of your WI, and were unprepared for attack by air? And are NOW "constantly" patrolling a large radius of airspace around the Canal Zone?

And this is the Japanese CONSUL in Panama, head of their network there, who is telling you this!!!

Ah, the wonders of espionage - HE could find out the level of Amercian defences 68 years ago including the area you're interested in....and YOU couldn't with the benefits of hindsight and Google???

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Dec.7'41: A Day That Nobody Bombed Panama !

#255

Post by phylo_roadking » 30 Jan 2009, 23:07

You should have looked just a little bit closer at those MAGIC decrypts, Robert...
From: Panama (Akiyama)
To: Tokyo
November 22, 1941.
J-19
#321 (Part 4 Of 4 [a])

The anti-air defenses (?) on lock #1, which is now being used, are being improved. (Of course, there are anti-air defenses (?) at lock #3.) The naval defense area, patrolled against possible lightning attacks, extends in the north from Salina Cruz on the Tehuantepec Isthmus to Monepene (on ?) the Gulf of Fonseca. The southern limits extend to the air base on the Galapagos Islands.
5. Present army strength is 47,000; naval, 10,000; air force, 5,000 In addition, it is estimated that there is approximately twice this general total, made up of the families and laborers (excluding Panamanians).

Army 26830 (Japanese) Trans. 12-25-41 (X)
Sort of take a Galapagos jumping-off point out of the equation...if THIS is the information that Tokyo has about USN operations - that they covered the Galapagos...

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