What If Franco Joined the Axis?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
azzkikr241
Member
Posts: 10
Joined: 07 May 2003, 17:27
Location: USA

What If Franco Joined the Axis?

#1

Post by azzkikr241 » 12 May 2003, 01:05

Suppose Franco accepted Hitler offer for Alliance. Do you think it would of made a big difference in control of the mediterrian. Suppose Germany had gotten Frances fleet and Franco joined the Axis with his fleet. Do you think that the war in Africa would of been in german favor?

User avatar
human177
Member
Posts: 205
Joined: 02 May 2003, 13:39
Location: Flanders, History's n°1 war territory
Contact:

#2

Post by human177 » 12 May 2003, 07:44

When hell freezes it would!

Seeing France team up with Germany at that time would be like seeing the entire Middle East bringing the Pledge of Allegiance, accompanied with flute music and dancing cobras.

Have I made my point clear? A more plausible situation would be that Germany got Britain on its side in WWI


User avatar
Tim Smith
Member
Posts: 6177
Joined: 19 Aug 2002, 13:15
Location: UK

#3

Post by Tim Smith » 12 May 2003, 11:32

Not THAT unlikely.

If Franco had been a gullible fool, and believed Hitler's promises, he would have joined the Axis after the fall of France. But he wasn't, and he didn't. Spain was in no condition to fight anyone after the Civil War - without normal trade the Spanish people would probably have starved.

As for the French, they were REALLY angry with the British after the RN destroyed their fleet in Oran harbour and killed 1300 French sailors. The Vichy French government seriously considered declaring war on Britain after that incident. As a result, the Vichy French fought hard against the British in Syria, Madagascar, Dakar and North Africa when these territories were invaded - it was the Americans that persuaded them to give up after Operation Torch.

User avatar
ckleisch
Member
Posts: 1546
Joined: 01 Mar 2003, 09:03
Location: Elizabeth City, NC USA

#4

Post by ckleisch » 12 May 2003, 14:49

Gentlemen:
Historically, after the fall of France Hitler set up three diplomatic meetings. He was first to meet with Petain, then Franco at Heyde(sp) and then with Mussolini. At the meeting with Franco a serious consideration was given by Franco to joining the Axis. Hitler wanted to ship 20 german Divisions across Spain to attack Gibralter. Franco knew he owed germany for his success in coming to power. He needed away out as he really didnt see how he could succeed as Spain was a economic nightmare and a hairbreath away from a starvation situation. Mussolini gave franco the excuse he needed to not join the Axis. Mussolini began the invasion of Greece without informing Hitler. Franco told hitler he could not join an Alliance were no control was within the alliance to keep a member from starting new areas of conquest. franco did not join the pact but did agree to supply men to fight in the upcoming Russian campaign hence the entrance of the Spanish Blue division into the conflict in the east. Spain remained neutral and survived the war.

User avatar
Petter
Member
Posts: 924
Joined: 19 Feb 2003, 22:31
Location: Sweden

#5

Post by Petter » 12 May 2003, 18:00

If Spain joined up Italy and Germany after the fall of France the Axis would send more divisions to the Middle East. Rommel commanding 10 well equipped divisions would have rocked the Brits. Iraq, Iran and maybe Turkey would have become Axis nations. With Turkic, Arabic, Persian, German and Italian soldiers attacking up through Caucasus Russia would have lost its oil and the cities of Stalingrad and Astrakhan. Now the enormous Russian tank armies would be halted. The Russian moral would be low. Germany could focus its strength on Moscow in 1942. If they managed to take Moscow, that would be the end of Soviet Union. Hitler could focus his strength on building a submarine fleet and a greater Luftwaffe. The only way to defeat Germany then would be to nuke them, nuke them like hell! And I don't think America would start to drop nukes over Europe (As the Luftwaffe would be much stronger it would be hard to nuke Germany itself, many planes would be shot down. There would also be a risk of Germans finding a more or less intact nuke in a downed plane), I don't think they would be ready to make half of Europe radioactive, and I don’t think they were ready to give Hitler an excuse for dropping nerve gas over London and kill hundreds of thousands of civilians. Maybe Franco changed the entire course of history by refusing to join the Axis.

User avatar
Lord Gort
Member
Posts: 2014
Joined: 07 Apr 2002, 15:44
Location: United Kingdom: The Land of Hope and Glory

#6

Post by Lord Gort » 12 May 2003, 19:36

If Franco would have joined then Hitler would have fought the Blue water strategy that Admiral Raeder advocated.

User avatar
Deterance
Member
Posts: 1248
Joined: 26 Apr 2003, 04:10
Location: Republic of Texas

#7

Post by Deterance » 20 May 2003, 08:41

I agree with the post citing Franco would not have made a significant difference due to devastation of Spanish civil war.

Also Franco was worried about losing Canary and Bealric Islands and Spanish Morrocco to British naval forces. And worried about British support for anti Franco Guerilla movements in Catalonia, parts of Andalucia, Valencia and other pro Republican areas.

Franco was so much smarter than Hitler and other NAZIS.

User avatar
Petter
Member
Posts: 924
Joined: 19 Feb 2003, 22:31
Location: Sweden

#8

Post by Petter » 20 May 2003, 22:19

Well, the Spanish army was nothing, but if Spain joined the Axis, Axis logistics in Narth Africa would be muck better, and if North Africa/Middle East was taken bye the Axis then everything would change.

User avatar
PanzerKing
Member
Posts: 1244
Joined: 28 Feb 2003, 03:26
Location: Texas USA

#9

Post by PanzerKing » 20 May 2003, 23:33

Exactly "Centurion"! That's what people fail to understand, it's not about the army Spain would have added to the Axis, but the logistics. They could have provided a route to North Africa the Axis desperatly needed. Gibraltor could have been taken and better supply lines could be created. This would defenitly changed to course of the war.

User avatar
Tim Smith
Member
Posts: 6177
Joined: 19 Aug 2002, 13:15
Location: UK

#10

Post by Tim Smith » 21 May 2003, 00:11

Absolutely Panzerking, Spain entering the war would have been to Germany's great benefit if Raeder's 'Mediterranean Strategy' had been adopted.

However, looking at it from Franco's point of view, how does SPAIN benefit?

She gets Gibraltar, which she has always wanted. But she will have to pay a very heavy price. The British could easily annihilate the weak Spanish navy, which means that garrisons on the Canary and Balaeric Islands could not be reinforced or supplied adequately. The British would be capable of taking these islands by early 1942.

The Spanish have little defence against British night bombing raids - the Luftwaffe probably wouldn't be prepared to weaken their own defence to help Spain.

Plus there's the risk of Portugal joining the Allies, and a British invasion, and the inevitable food and oil crises.

Franco considered all this and calculated that Gibraltar wasn't worth the price, as far as Spain was concerned. The only way it would be worth it is if the alternative was a German invasion of Spain!

Hitler should have played hardball with Franco - "...let my troops through or I'll smash Spain the way I smashed Belgium!"

User avatar
Deterance
Member
Posts: 1248
Joined: 26 Apr 2003, 04:10
Location: Republic of Texas

#11

Post by Deterance » 21 May 2003, 04:32

Centurion wrote:Well, the Spanish army was nothing, but if Spain joined the Axis, Axis logistics in Narth Africa would be muck better, and if North Africa/Middle East was taken bye the Axis then everything would change.

Would logistics really have been that much easier? Logistics would still have to pass through Morrocco, Algeria, and Tunisia to get to Libya and Egypt.

That is hundreds of miles through nominaly hostile Vichy French territory that would have to be garrisoned after being captured. Germans could only spare two divisions for Rommel. So where were the extra troops going to come from to take Gilbraltar and other territiories? Not Spain, it was exhausted!

User avatar
Tim Smith
Member
Posts: 6177
Joined: 19 Aug 2002, 13:15
Location: UK

#12

Post by Tim Smith » 21 May 2003, 10:53

No, Deterence, it's not about the Axis tracing logistics through Spain and Morocco, it's about reduced British interference with Axis shipping between Italy and Libya following the fall of Gibraltar.

Malta is the key to this - it was from there that British planes and ships attacked Italian convoys.

Without Gibraltar, the British can only reach the Med. Sea by going all the way round Africa and up the Suez Canal. So they will find it much harder to send as many convoys to Malta.

British planes and ships based on Malta need fuel and ammunition - without the Malta convoys they can't be supplied and would have to be withdrawn to Alexandria - i.e. much farther from the Italian convoy routes.

User avatar
Petter
Member
Posts: 924
Joined: 19 Feb 2003, 22:31
Location: Sweden

#13

Post by Petter » 21 May 2003, 12:06

The French forces in Algeria would not not resist the Germans, as you know the Vichy regime was a puppet to Germany. Marocko was controlled by Spain. I think the Germans would send more forces to North Africa if this happened, in our timeline the british fleet ruled the Med, and it was impossible to support more troops. In this time line that problem wouldn't occur. Germany could send a couple more divisions, and Italy could send many more divisions.

User avatar
Deterance
Member
Posts: 1248
Joined: 26 Apr 2003, 04:10
Location: Republic of Texas

#14

Post by Deterance » 23 May 2003, 04:17

[quote="Tim Smith"]No, Deterence, it's not about the Axis tracing logistics through Spain and Morocco, it's about reduced British interference with Axis shipping between Italy and Libya following the fall of Gibraltar.

Tim,

Great point on Malta, I forgot all abouts it's importance. It would have been a close call for Britain.

But I dont think it would have made a strategic difference. Germany still would have been short manuver divisions against Montgomery. British supplies to Eastern med still would have been sufficient for Montgomery's counter offensive b/c USA was not going to let England collapse. USA would have added enough escorted convoys to ensure supply.

If things got realy bad for Britain in a strategic way, US would have intervened earlier. Perhaps with more and more "volunteers" if congress got scared.

Alternative Scenario
Member
Posts: 113
Joined: 12 May 2003, 21:52
Location: UK

#15

Post by Alternative Scenario » 15 Jun 2003, 22:30

Of all the relatively simple things Hitler could have done to improve his strategic position getting the Spanish to join the Axis cause was probably the most profitable!

While taking the point the Spanish were in poor shape in 1940 economically they could have still been invaluable in the Mediterranean campaign.

1. the fall for Gibraltar (Operation Hercules) in 1940 would have been a significant strategic and political - not quite on the scale of Singapore but not far off - it would have cost very little in terms of manpower (the British garrison was regimental size) and could have been accomplished with the two German divisions allocated plus the Spanish army!

2. the Canary Islands and the Spanish mainland (as well as Spanish Morocco) would have provided excellent Uboat bases and airfields for FW Condor - they would have made it more difficult for the UK to reinforce the Middle East (the loss of Gibraltar would have made the only route to Malta and Egypt via the Suez canal! It would have been late 1942 before the UK and the US could have successfully launched an invasion.

3. Yes the Spanish would not have been a major boost to Hilter's military capability but it would have been surely possible for Franco to provide say 2-4 divisions of seasoned desert trained veterans from his original "Army of Africa" - given a reasonable German anti-tank guns (75mm +) and armour could tipped the balance in Rommel's favour in 1941-42. Again Spanish pilots, battle experienced and equipped the ME109 (they already had a few) and other relatively modern German and Italian aircraft could have provided 100-200 planes for the battles in Libya and Egypt. Yes supply problems would remained but these would have been eased by 4 below

4. The involvement of Spain could have created the conditions for the capture of Malta by at the very least made its reinforcement and use of a base against Axis shipping almost impossible!

5. Future actions such as "Operation Torch" (the Anglo/American invasion of French North Africa) could not have been carried out? How could the Allies have undertaken such an operation against a heavily defended coastline in 1942

How to get Franco in? Franco made outrageous requests from food and raw materials plus French Morocco - Hitler could have called his bluff promised him all the supplies he requested (but only delivered some, just enough to keep Franco going) and set a timetable for the invasion of French Morocco in late 1941 (he could have put off at later date it due to other strategic considerations) or offered a bit of mainland France above the Pyrenees!! Once Franco had cut deal and "crossed the Rubicon" he would have stuck with the Axis and known the victorious Allies would have come looking for him as well - this would have been a good incentive for him to support the Axis cause 110%.

Yes getting Spain actively involved would not have won the war but as an ally they would been very useful and made it that bit more difficult for the Allies to win

Post Reply

Return to “What if”