# 4 THE GREAT INTERACTIVE WHAT-IF: Barbarossa campaign plan

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# 4 THE GREAT INTERACTIVE WHAT-IF: Barbarossa campaign plan

#1

Post by Qvist » 21 May 2004, 23:02

Hello all.

This one's a bit different from the others. No options or decisions to be made - rather, a working out of decisions already made, to provide an impression of how such a campaign will be attempted played out in more detail than hitherto given. That however does not mean you can't make comments, views or suggestions. :D

1941

FORCES

On 27 June 1941 historically, the Ostheer had:
25 Divisions (6 motorised) in HG Nord,
50 divisions (15 motorised) in HG Mitte,
39 divisions (9 motorised) and 8 ½ allied division equivalents in HG Süd (including 11th Army) and
26 divisions (4 motorised) in OKH reserve –
for a total of 140 divisions (allies not included), 114 of whom were already with the Heeresgruppen.

This option presupposes an attack with 110 divisions available. In other words - with this force level, it is in fact possible to almost reproduce the force levels initially in Barbarossa – but only at the expense of doing without the sizeable pool of OKH reserves that existed historically (and which were for the most part committed within a couple of months). So we will be exchanging one risk for another – all available force will be deployed forward for the intial stroke, to maximise the chances in the all-important border battles.We will furthermore have 29 motorised divisions rather than 34.

THE PLAN


Stage 1

To gain freedom of action in the South, it is necessary first to dispose of the major concentrations of Soviet forces on the border. Consequently, the major force for the initial phase of the campaign will be deployed to HG Nord and Mitte:

HG N: 23 divisions (6 motorised)
18th Army
16th Army
Panzer Group 4

HG Mitte: 47 divisions (13 motorised)
9th Army
4th Army
Panzer Group 3
Panzer Group 4

HG Süd: 35 divisions (8 motorised)
6th Army
17th Army
11th Army
Panzer Group 1

OKH reserve: 5 divisions (2 motorised)

MAP OF MAJOR THRUSTS

1. 18th Army will drive on Riga, trapping the major elements of the Soviet Baltic Front against the coast, then advance on Tallin, in conjunction with Panzer Group 4.
2. Panzer Group 4 and and 16th Army will defeat the Soviet forces in the eastern Baltic area, secure crossings across the Dvina at Dünaburg (Dvinsk) and advance on Pskov
3. Panzer Group 3 and 9th Army will attack from E Prussia and advance Norh of Grodno before trapping the main Soviet grouping in the Bialystok-Grodno area from the North, in cooperation with Panzer Group 2 from the south – then along the axis Vilnius- Polotsk-Vitebsk to encircle Smolensk from the North,
4. Panzer Group 2 and 4th Army will advance south of Bialystok, and complete the encirclement of the Soviet grouping in that area in cooperation with Panzer Group 3, then advance on the axis Minsk-Mogilev-Roslavl to complete the encirclement of Smolensk from the South.
5. Army Group South will advance from Southern Poland, and using 17th and 6th armied in addition to Panzer Group 1, on two axis – Zhitomir-Kiev and Kamenets-Podolsk- Vinnitsa, with a view to encircling and annihilating the main forces of the Soviet southern grouping at a convenient point east of Berdichev.
6. Simultaneously, 11th Army with allied forces will advance from Romania to push Soviet forces back across the Dniestr and capture or invest Odessa.

It is anticipated that that this phase will be completed by the end of July.

PHASE 2

Phase 2 aims to inflict a crushing defeat on Soviet forces between Kiev and Brjansk by the means of two double envelopments, and generally to create favourable conditions for the ensuing advance to the Volga.

Following phase1 , there will be a brief pause for redeployment, enabling the shift of the major effort towards the South:

- Panzer Group 4 with its 6 divisions will redeploy to the HG Mitte sector, where it will be available as a general reserve for the eventuality of soviet counteroffensives.
- Panzer Group 3 with its 6 divisions will deploy South to the the Roslavl-Gomel-sector
- Panzer Group 2 with its 7 divisions will redeploy South to the Gomel sector.


1. 4th Army and and Pz Grp 3 will launch a strong concentric assault converging on East of Brjansk, to remove any threat to the rear of the drive on Kiev, deplete the Soviet forces deployed on the Moscow axis and secure favourable jump-off positions for the ensuing phase of the campaign.
2. Pz Group 2 will attack southwards into the back of Soviet forces in the Kiev sector.
3. Pz Group 1 will attack across the Dniepr South of Kiev and link up with Panzer Group 2 East of the city, thus encircling Soviet forces in the area.
4. 11th Army will continue the advance towards the lower Dnepr in the direction of Kirovo and secure Nikolayev.

- HG Nord, having attained the line Narva-Luga-Novgorod-Staraya Russa-Velikiye Luki, if necessary after the commencement of phase 2 elsewhere and without mobile forces support, will remain on the defensive. So will HG Mitte north of the Roslavl-Brjansk sector.

PHASE 3


Following the destruction of the main Soviet force in the Ukraine and South-Central Russia during phase 2, the key objectives in the Ukraine will be captured by HG Mitte (Orel-Voronesh) and HG Süd (Kharkov, Rostov, the Crimea) through a broad advance with the main effort weighted on the two flanks.

1. 4th Army and Pz.Grp.3 (having received one of Pz.Grp. 2’s corps) will attack from the Brjansk bulge through Orel, and Verzhezh to Voronoesh.
2. 6th Army, with the remaining 1 Corps of Pz.Grp. 2 (this command being dissolved), will advance through central Ukraine and capture Kharkov
3. PzGrp 1 will advance down the east bank of the Dnepr on the axis Dnepropetrovsk-Stalino and capture Rostov. 17th Army will operate in conjunction with PzGrp and advance to the Black Sea near Melitopol, being prepared both to maintain contact with 6th Army to the North, and to face West to deal with any Soviet forces caugt against the Dnepr.
4. 11th Army will advance due east to link up with 17th Army at Zaporozhe and capture the Crimea.


PHASE 4

Having secured the key points in phase 3, phase 4 will complete the edvance to the Volga by means of concentric advances by by Pz Grps 1 and 3 converging on Stalingrad, the attainment of the Volga line and the encirclement or defeat of remaining Soviet forces in the Don bend.

1. Pz Grp 3, coming under HG Süd command, will advance down the East bank of the Volga from Voronesh and move on Stalingrad from the Northeast. At this point, 4th Army will be fully occupied in covering Pz Grp’s flank from Brjansk to Voronesh.
2. PzGrp 1, with support from 17th Army, will advance from Rostov and link up with PzGrp 3 in Stalingrad from the Southwest.
3. 6th Army advance due East and engage remaining Soviet forces in the Don Bend.
4. 11th Army clear up remaining resistance in the Crimea and cross the Kerch strait to establish a bridgehead in the Kuban peninsula.



WINTER LINE 1941-42

HG Nord will be firmly entrenched in its defensive system established already several months previously, with 18th Army holding the sector from Narva to Novgorod, and 16th Army the sector from Novgorod to the Dvina river.

HG Mitte, with 9th Army in the North and 4th Army to the south supported by Pz Grp 4, will be responsible for the sector from the Dvina to Gryasi, also being able to draw considerably on defensive position prepared well in anticipation of the winter.

HG Süd will face considerable redeployments after the completion of the mobile phase of the campaign year. 6th Army will slide Northwards to cover the long sector East of the river Volga between Griyasi (well north of Voronesh) and Stalingrad together with Pz Grp 3 and allied forrces. 17th Army will cover the sector from Stalingrad to Azov. 11th Army will guard the Crimea, man the Kuban bridgehead and take over the westernmost part of the Donets line, around Rostov. Pz Grp 1 and to the maximum extent possible Pz Grp 3 will be withdrawn from the front line to refit and form a strong mobile reserve.

MAP KEY

BLUE: Phase 1
RED: Phase 2
GREEN: Phase 3
ORANGE: Phase 4
Attachments
41small.JPG
Overview of major thrusts
41small.JPG (56.95 KiB) Viewed 4266 times
Last edited by Qvist on 24 May 2004, 11:14, edited 2 times in total.

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#2

Post by Qvist » 21 May 2004, 23:14

Further maps for 1941:
Attachments
41southphase34.JPG
41southphase34.JPG (53.16 KiB) Viewed 4258 times
41southphase12.JPG
41southphase12.JPG (52.69 KiB) Viewed 4261 times
41northcenter.JPG
The HG Nord and HG Mitte Sectors
41northcenter.JPG (43.64 KiB) Viewed 4262 times


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#3

Post by Qvist » 21 May 2004, 23:45

1942.

Forces.

It being assumed that the replacement reserves accumulated by the reserve army will be sufficient to cover losses until June 1942, force generation after the onset of Barbarossa will focus more heavily on the raising of new units, many of whom are to be available by the start of the 1942 summer campaign season. The reserve army have been ordered to provide another 1.5 million men by the end of 1942, of whom 1 million are to be ready for action in the East by July 1942. Of this 1 million, 250,000 will be available as replacements for losses during the summer battles, while the remainder will be used for the creation of 50 new divisions, of whom an anticipated 45 will be available in the East. 10 of these are to be of the Panzer/motorised type. This will raise division total in the East to 155 divisions, of whom 39 will be Panzer or motorised, and overall strength to about 3.4 million. A further 500,000 men are to available between July and year’s end, primarily as replacements. Furthermore, every effort will be made to strongly increase allied contributions.

The Plan

There are three objectives for the year. 1, Leningrad. 2, the Caucaus. 3, Moscow. A more general objective is to bring the bulk of remaining Soviet forces to battle, and destroy them.

Forces are not sufficient to pursue all three objectives at once. Above all, our approximately 15 Panzer Corps of on average 3 dividions each would not be equal to such a task. Hence, the campaign will be carried out in two phases.

PHASE 1 – LENINGRAD AND THE NORTH CAUCASIAN PLAIN

Leningrad. 16th Army, supplemented by a new 2nd Army and supported by new Panzer Group 5 with two corps will inflict a shattering defeat on the forces covering the approaches to Leningrad, simultaneous, hopefully, with a finnish advance from the North. Following this, Panzer Group 5 will be withdrawn in readiness of Phase 2 (Moscow), 16th Army will advance into Leningrad and capture the city and 2nd Army will isolate the city to the East thorugh an advance north to lake Ladoga, engaing any Soviet forces attempting to reinforce the city.

The North Caucasus. 5 Panzer Corps will be deployed in an operation aiming at encircling and annihilating the main Soviet force in the Caucasus. It is essential to carry out such a battle of annihilation, as 3 of these corps will be required in the central sector in time for phase 2 of the campaign, and as an advance through the mountainous terrain further south will be extremely difficult if Soviet strength remains intact. Panzer Group 1 will advance with two corps from the Kuban bridgehead, in conjunction with 11th Army and attached Rumanian forces. 17th Army and Panzer Group 2 (with three Pz corps) will advance due south from the Donets line, splitting the Soviet center open and linking up with Pz Group 1. To the East, a separate Pz Corps group, with support from allied forces and parts of 17th Army, will advance down the Volga to Astrakhan, and pursue Soviet forces on the NE Caucasian plain. Following the link-up between Pz Groups 1 and 2, their combined force will advance on Grozny and seek to cut off the escape routes South, thus creating another major cauldron. After this, 3 of the 5 Pz corps will be withdrawn for action around Moscow.

PHASE 2 – MOSCOW

Simultaneously with phase 1, Panzer Group 3 will concentrate in the Orel area with 3 corps, and Panzer Group 4 will concentrate NE of Smolensk, also with 3 corps. HG Mitte’s infantry strength will be considerably augmented, putting the field armies in apposition to strongly support the drives by the Panzer forces.

The Moscow offensive will start with these forces, before any of the 5 Pz corps released from operations in the North and South will be available. Pz Grp 3 will drice North from Orel through Tula against Moscow. Pz Group 4 will attack on the axis Rzhev-Kalinin. The emphasis for this first sub-phase will be to defeat, and if possible encircle, the Soviet forces in the main attack sectors. Following its operations in the Caucasus, Pz Group 2 will assemble its three corps in the general area of Gryasi.From here, it will launch a third, northward drive to the East of Pz Group 3’s advance, along the axis Michurinsk-Ryazan. The two corps of Pz Group 5 will be available as a general reserve. Pz Groups 2 and 4 will link up at Orekhovo-Suevo, thus cutting Moscow off from the East, and enabling forces advancing from the West and South to assault the city itself, and enable us to inflict a severe annihilation defeat on the remaining forces of the Red Army.

In the Caucasus, 11th Army with one Pz corps in support will advance down the Black Sea coast to Batumi and then due East to Tblisi and Yerevan, while 17th Army with one Pz Corps will advance down the Caspian coast to Baku.
Attachments
42moscow.JPG
The capture of Moscow
42moscow.JPG (35.7 KiB) Viewed 4253 times
42south.JPG
The Caucasus
42south.JPG (50.97 KiB) Viewed 4253 times
42north.JPG
Leningrad
42north.JPG (21.19 KiB) Viewed 4254 times

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#4

Post by Baltasar » 22 May 2004, 07:52

First of all: You really did an awsome job writing all that stuff, not to mention all the work you already did before!

@HG Nord after offensive operations.
I may missed that mark, but I feel HG Nord being a little overstreched and would like to deploy a Panzer corps as a fire brigade, just in case. However, we could also wait until that events show us what's needed. If we don't destroy the russian formations en masse, HG Nord will be endangered by retreated and now rallied russian formations.

@Finnish involvement:
When are they expected to enter the war? In July '41 they'd draw additional russian formations against them, but since we want to fight and destroy russian formations, that is not totally desireable. Additionally, if Finland enters our campaign when we start the drive for Leningrad, we'll at least surprise the red army a little, or at the very least force them to strech their defences much more in that area.

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#5

Post by Qvist » 22 May 2004, 09:51

Hello Baltasar
@HG Nord after offensive operations.
I may missed that mark, but I feel HG Nord being a little overstreched and would like to deploy a Panzer corps as a fire brigade, just in case. However, we could also wait until that events show us what's needed. If we don't destroy the russian formations en masse, HG Nord will be endangered by retreated and now rallied russian formations.


OK, where would you like that Pz Corps to be taken from?
@Finnish involvement:
When are they expected to enter the war? In July '41 they'd draw additional russian formations against them, but since we want to fight and destroy russian formations, that is not totally desireable. Additionally, if Finland enters our campaign when we start the drive for Leningrad, we'll at least surprise the red army a little, or at the very least force them to strech their defences much more in that area.
The plan assumes Romanian, Slovakian and Hungarian participation, but not finnish in 1941, given that no strong advance is made in the North.

cheers

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#6

Post by Baltasar » 22 May 2004, 10:17

I'd divide Panzer Gruppe 4 and leave corps at HG Nords disposal. This group would be redeployed anyway and if read right, they weren't sceduled for active combat duty for some time, so this corps could stay there while Pz.Grp. 4 will be reinforced by new formations if possible. HG Nord will have to hold the area at all costs, so a Panzer Corps is the least to help them do their job.



After rereading your plan for the caucasus plains, I have my doubts we'll be able to supply our formations that far away. We'll have to deal with civil resitence as already shown in france and norway and our lines will be severley streched. I recommend we concentrate on Leningrad and consolidate our forces in a defensive peremiter, thus enabeling more troops to be redeployed for the leningrad and moskov campaign or to fight any russian offensive back.

The reinforced HG Nord would recieve extra troops to seal off Leningrad and capture it afterwards. The capture of Leningrad would be a major breakthrough both in matters of miliary forces and morale. One more important point would be that we'd be able to transport large quantities of supplies for HG Nord and Mitte by ship via Leningrad and would thus be able to use the land transports for HG Mitte's southern components and HG Süd.


What's the Luftwaffe gotta do?

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#7

Post by Jon G. » 22 May 2004, 11:49

My compliments for the massive effort you must have put into this, Qvist :D

I have these comments for phase 1:

It seems to me that the initial thrusts follow the layout of the Soviet Union’s rail network pretty accurately. This should make our initial advance easier, but it will also mean that the enemy will be able to second-guess the direction of individual thrusts. This is perhaps an acceptable trade-off – better communications for somewhat increased resistance. The railroad troops must be fully up to the task of re-gauging captured Soviet railroads.

Also, since our initial assaults will be mostly armoured, it makes good sense to bypass the Pripjet Marshes – but it must be taken into account that this area should be taken, too, and there should be strong flank guards with both HG Nord and HG Mitte to avert any enemy attacks emerging from the marshes. Maybe the important, but less glamorous job of providing flank guard for HG Mitte could be left to our Romanian allies?

It makes perfect sense to me to deploy most of the mechanized formations on the central and southern sectors – and denuding HG Nord of its Panzer Group for the second phase also seems perfectly reasonable. In fact, we could perhaps consider letting HG Nord perform its initial assault towards Riga and the Gulf of Finland without any armoured forces at all? There already is a full Panzer Group allocated to each jaw of the assault enveloping Smolensk – but by freeing a Panzer Group from HG Nord, we could be able to employ a full Panzer Group for each jaw of the assault aiming to envelop Berdichev, due west of Kiev instead. Deploying two full Panzer Groups north of the Pripjet is less than optimal in my opinion, partly because HG Nord has comparatively modest objectives, partly because the area south of the Pripjet is better tank country. This should also make the redeployment period after phase 1 less fiddly – and we can’t really expect the rail conversion to be complete by late July.

Also, I think we should avoid the ‘Panzer Group’ misnomer and give the armoured forces more independent operational control by calling them what they really are: Panzer Armies.

Baltasar, it seems that I am in favour of a more radical re-deployment of forces than you are :)
What's the Luftwaffe gotta do?
Initially, destroy the Red Air Force.

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#8

Post by Qvist » 22 May 2004, 13:04

My compliments for the massive effort you must have put into this, Qvist


Oh, it really was just a question on building from the historical plan and giving it a different intonation in phase 2, and work out the force levels. The most time consuming bit was working out how to get those map attachments posted :D
It seems to me that the initial thrusts follow the layout of the Soviet Union’s rail network pretty accurately. This should make our initial advance easier, but it will also mean that the enemy will be able to second-guess the direction of individual thrusts. This is perhaps an acceptable trade-off – better communications for somewhat increased resistance. The railroad troops must be fully up to the task of re-gauging captured Soviet railroads.
A correct observation (indeed, initial thrusts are largely identical to Barbarossa, which built exactly on this premise). The rail support effort should be significantly simplified and augmented by concentrating on one sector of the front rather than 3 simultaneously following phase 1.
Also, since our initial assaults will be mostly armoured, it makes good sense to bypass the Pripjet Marshes – but it must be taken into account that this area should be taken, too, and there should be strong flank guards with both HG Nord and HG Mitte to avert any enemy attacks emerging from the marshes. Maybe the important, but less glamorous job of providing flank guard for HG Mitte could be left to our Romanian allies?
Here I have relied on the historical Barbarossa plan
It makes perfect sense to me to deploy most of the mechanized formations on the central and southern sectors – and denuding HG Nord of its Panzer Group for the second phase also seems perfectly reasonable. In fact, we could perhaps consider letting HG Nord perform its initial assault towards Riga and the Gulf of Finland without any armoured forces at all? There already is a full Panzer Group allocated to each jaw of the assault enveloping Smolensk – but by freeing a Panzer Group from HG Nord, we could be able to employ a full Panzer Group for each jaw of the assault aiming to envelop Berdichev, due west of Kiev instead. Deploying two full Panzer Groups north of the Pripjet is less than optimal in my opinion, partly because HG Nord has comparatively modest objectives, partly because the area south of the Pripjet is better tank country. This should also make the redeployment period after phase 1 less fiddly – and we can’t really expect the rail conversion to be complete by late July
.

This is a real option, I agree. But the logic of the proposed scheme is that the successful annihilation of the Soviet armies on the Western border must constitute the first phaseof the undertaking, and that as far as results there are concerned, it would not only seem hard to best the historical plan, it would also be difficult to find any compelling reason for planning this differently than in RL, as it is in essence the same task. It must be regarded as very doubtful that a significantly weaker HG Nord, without any armoured forces, would be able to achieve this. It might jeopardise the crucial initial phase of the operation, with potentially serious implications for later phases.

Yet there would be advantages also to such a redeployment. A basic problem with the plan is that it requires a Kiev encirclement operation after the completion of Smolensk, much as happened historically. This again means that the drives down the Dnepr and towards Voronesh will not be able to proceed much earlier than Typhoon did historically, which again leaves precious little time for completing the last phase of the offensive before the onset of autumn mud and then winter. With such a dramatic increase in strength, the chance increases that HG Süd would be able to complete the destruction of the Soviet Southern grouping and capture Kiev with its own means, thus basically eliminating the need for a phase 2. But this would constitute a very risky gamble in the already weak Northern half of the front and violate a basic presupposition of the plan. Let's see what the others think about these options.
Also, I think we should avoid the ‘Panzer Group’ misnomer and give the armoured forces more independent operational control by calling them what they really are: Panzer Armies.
Here I am sticking to historical realism. :D We'll change it in 1942.


cheers

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#9

Post by Qvist » 22 May 2004, 13:17

Baltasar:
I'd divide Panzer Gruppe 4 and leave corps at HG Nords disposal. This group would be redeployed anyway and if read right, they weren't sceduled for active combat duty for some time, so this corps could stay there while Pz.Grp. 4 will be reinforced by new formations if possible. HG Nord will have to hold the area at all costs, so a Panzer Corps is the least to help them do their job.
Well, HG Mitte will also have to hold the area at all costs,a nd will almost certainly face much stronger Russian forces and have a much longer frontage. But how about this solution: Pz Grp 4 goes into OKH reserve, who will then release its forces to HG Mitte or HG Nord as the situation dictates.
After rereading your plan for the caucasus plains, I have my doubts we'll be able to supply our formations that far away. We'll have to deal with civil resitence as already shown in france and norway and our lines will be severley streched. I recommend we concentrate on Leningrad and consolidate our forces in a defensive peremiter, thus enabeling more troops to be redeployed for the leningrad and moskov campaign or to fight any russian offensive back.
First of all - I see that I have made a serious miscalculation of the amount of armoured forces we have available in 1942 - I will have to correct that.

Anyway - I think force level problems are considerably less in 1942 than in 1941, and that we will have the strength for all three of these operations if they are properly phased. Supply will I think be manageable. Your proposed change would constitute a major shift in strategic approach, as it leaves the Caucasus in Soviet hands. Anyway, this is a year away, and the campaign plan for that year should in any case not be seen as anything more than a broad statement of intention - reality might easily turn out differently in 1941 than envisaged, for better or for worse. So my suggestion is we retain the intention to capture the Caucasus for the time being, and then see where we stand when May 1942 approaches.
The reinforced HG Nord would recieve extra troops to seal off Leningrad and capture it afterwards. The capture of Leningrad would be a major breakthrough both in matters of miliary forces and morale. One more important point would be that we'd be able to transport large quantities of supplies for HG Nord and Mitte by ship via Leningrad and would thus be able to use the land transports for HG Mitte's southern components and HG Süd.
Well, this is already the intention, including strengthened forces for HG N (well in excess of what HG N ever possessed historically).

The Luftwaffe, as Shrek says, has the role of destroying the Soviet Air Force initially, and then to support the operations of the land forces in the usual manner.


cheers

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#10

Post by Kurt_Steiner » 22 May 2004, 13:38

Well, Qvist. I'm speecheless... Impressive effort, my friend.

The plan is almost perfect, but there are some things I would like to comment, if you don't mind.

- I think (perhaps I'm wrong), that in our drive for Riga we create some kind of Kessel in the Kurland peninsula. I suppose that the Russian units surrounded there would be very low of moral and "cared" carefully by our forces. Due to this fact, they wouldn't be dangerous for us... Nevertheless, could we send some units from the 18th Army to finish them? And then, these units could rejoin the main thrust. Well, it's a little detail, perhaps it has not the slightest importance.

- The great Kessels in the Center and the South. If our advance goes as the plan suggests, in a month or so HG M would be at Smolensk, and 50-65 Russian divisions would be surrounded by our troops. That sounds very good. No problem here.
However, I think that the second phase of Barbarrosa in the south has a little problem. It looks to me that in this phase were are not surrounding the enemy and reduce them into small -or big- Kessels, but our forces our going just to push them back, towards East. If this happens, the enemy is just going to withdraw, and we don't like that. Of course, many units would be surrounded in Crimea and some more in the Dniepetrovsk area, but I think that waiting to surround them in Dniepetrovsk is letting them withdraw too much, we should try to annihilate them earlier. Well, this may cause some problems to the operation to capture Kiev. If it's so, then forget it, Qvist.

- The advance towards Stalingrad. It looks to me that we create a dangerous bulge that could be attacked by the enemy from both flanks and cut in the middle. Perhaps it's just my impression.

That's all. In short, the overall plan sounds impressive to me. You've done an impressive work -don't be humble, it's the plain truth, my friend!!!-. I've enjoyed very much all your previous what ifs, and I think this one is going to be great. Forgive me if I create some troubles to this wonderful plan or if I fail to capture the whole sense of this plan.

Amazing, simply amazing... that's what I call to be a genius. My sincere congratulations.

Best regards

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#11

Post by Qvist » 22 May 2004, 16:25

Hello Steiner, thanks for your comments, and for the nice words, though again, it is really not much more than an adaption of the barbarossa plan.

- I think (perhaps I'm wrong), that in our drive for Riga we create some kind of Kessel in the Kurland peninsula. I suppose that the Russian units surrounded there would be very low of moral and "cared" carefully by our forces. Due to this fact, they wouldn't be dangerous for us... Nevertheless, could we send some units from the 18th Army to finish them? And then, these units could rejoin the main thrust. Well, it's a little detail, perhaps it has not the slightest importance.

- The great Kessels in the Center and the South. If our advance goes as the plan suggests, in a month or so HG M would be at Smolensk, and 50-65 Russian divisions would be surrounded by our troops. That sounds very good. No problem here.
However, I think that the second phase of Barbarrosa in the south has a little problem. It looks to me that in this phase were are not surrounding the enemy and reduce them into small -or big- Kessels, but our forces our going just to push them back, towards East. If this happens, the enemy is just going to withdraw, and we don't like that. Of course, many units would be surrounded in Crimea and some more in the Dniepetrovsk area, but I think that waiting to surround them in Dniepetrovsk is letting them withdraw too much, we should try to annihilate them earlier. Well, this may cause some problems to the operation to capture Kiev. If it's so, then forget it, Qvist.
Regarding phase 1, what is envisaged is really the original Barbarossa plan. It is indeed intended to catch large parts of the Soviet Baltic front against the Baltic sea. The osuthermost arrows in HG Süd is just 11th Army and the Romanians, who will lack the strength for any sweeping encirclements. I'll check to see if they achieved some in any case, in which case we can probably assume that they'll do so in our scenario as well.

Regarding the vulnerability of Stalingrad bulge you are right, it is exposed. Generally, I see three great weaknesses in he campaign plan. One is the near absence of reserves, which are bound to complicate already the 1st phase of the campaign, to say nothing of phase 2 and the later stages. Second, the difficulty in getting as far as Stalingrad considering weather and ground conditions, as outlined in the reply to Shrek above. Three, the very exposed left flank of Panzer Groups 3's drive on Voronesh, and later down the volga to Stalingrad, although in this year the mian danger is likely to come from the direction of Tula or Ryazan rather than from East of the Volga. It is an option to reduce risks in phase 3 by employing Pz Group 1 in offensive operations in support of that drive, perhaps against Tula itself, though that would denude both the two northern HGs of any mobile reserves. In phase 4, risks may be lessened by advancing down the West bank of the Volga rather than the East, though that will also give the soviets an opportunity to consolidate their line on the Volga and reduce the threat against Soviet forces in the Don-Volga bend. Both are IMO worth considering.

The "Stalingrad bulge" in any event remains the obvious weak point in the German line throughout 1942, as that year is now conceived. But I see no really good alternative to accepting that risk.

cheers

Jon G.
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#12

Post by Jon G. » 22 May 2004, 17:12

… In fact, we could perhaps consider letting HG Nord perform its initial assault towards Riga and the Gulf of Finland without any armoured forces at all?…
This is a real option, I agree. But the logic of the proposed scheme is that the successful annihilation of the Soviet armies on the Western border must constitute the first phaseof the undertaking, and that as far as results there are concerned, it would not only seem hard to best the historical plan, it would also be difficult to find any compelling reason for planning this differently than in RL, as it is in essence the same task. It must be regarded as very doubtful that a significantly weaker HG Nord, without any armoured forces, would be able to achieve this. It might jeopardise the crucial initial phase of the operation, with potentially serious implications for later phases.
Well, in our plan, Leningrad is only to be taken at a later stage, so HG Nord has an easier job to do in the opening stage than it did historically. We’re merely liberating the Baltic States, with the potentially positive political repercussions that has.

A not very satisfying compromise could be dividing Panzer Group 4 for stage 1 only, letting one corps - and why not let it be led by Manstein? :D - strike towards Pskov and further to the Gulf of Finland (somewhat east of Tallinn, but a good distance west of Leningrad), while the other corps of Panzer Group 4 could constitute the northern jaw of the enveloping attack on Smolensk. As long as we stay mostly within the Baltic States, we are not likely to meet any strong Soviet defensive barriers – we’re going to stay west of the old Stalin Line in the north.

I would still seriously consider stripping HG Nord of all armour, especially since you outline –
With such a dramatic increase in strength, the chance increases that HG Süd would be able to complete the destruction of the Soviet Southern grouping and capture Kiev with its own means, thus basically eliminating the need for a phase 2.
With basically twice as much armour at its disposal, the enveloping east of Berdichev could aim for Kiev instead? The distance to be covered by the northern pincer assault on Smolensk is somewhat longer, so extending the pincers of the southern advance would not be overly ambitious, only comparable to the distance to be covered by the northern Panzer Groups. It should also make it possible to trap larger enemy forces – and it should also be possible to exploit any tactical opportunities that may develop in Southern Ukraine; as things stand now, enemy forces there will merely be pushed back in stage 1, as pointed out by Kurt Steiner.

Alternatively, if we split up Panzer Group 4 as a compromise solution, the jaws of the northern envelopment attack could slam shut some distance east of Vitebsk instead of at Smolensk – the southern part of the attack then proceeding towards Smolensk in a single thrust as soon as possible.

It’s a potential problem that both of the enveloping attacks rest a flank on the ‘impassable’ Pripjet Marshes – surely we can find a general staff officer with WWI Eastern Front experience, or somebody with knowledge of the Polish-Soviet war in 1920 to explain to us that this area is not impassable?

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Klaus Yurk
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#13

Post by Klaus Yurk » 22 May 2004, 17:32

Qvist,

I must agree with the others that you have done a tremendously impressive job. I just have a couple questions.

According to my copy of Guderian's "Panzer Leader," he describes the breakdown of the forces as of June 22, 1941, as "205 divisions: 38 divisions in the West, 12 divisions in Norway, 1 division in Denmark, 7 divisions in the Balkans, 2 divisions in Lybia, and therefore 145 divisions available for operations in the East." (Page 124 of my old Ballantine War Books copy.)

Was Guderian wrong? I'm no expert on your level, but don't you have an extra 5 divisions available to you? You say only 140.

The second question is, are you following the force allocation exactly as was? Since this is a "what if," and since even Guderian thought 38 divisions in the West and 12 in Norway was too high for garrisson duty, are you even considering "swiping" a couple of divisions from those areas? Or is that not the direction you want to take this?

Just asking about the numbers. But I think your plans are excellent. Great work.

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ckleisch
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#14

Post by ckleisch » 22 May 2004, 19:37

Greetings:
I would like to add some thoughts in regards to the subject at hand:
First regards to the Northern movement whether with or without armored units do not underestimate the importance of getting the four bridges across the Dvina River at Dvinsk. This controls the railroad as well in the area and control cuts off all units to the west of the community.(Historically a branderberger and motorcycle unit grabbed the bridges in a coup de main)
Second. In the present plan are the resources and abilities of group Todt being considered in regards to rail conversion, rail stock for supply and access for above on existing rail to the frontiers. Is there construction heavy equipment in the conceived areas for road improvements, rail gauge replacement. Are we to supply ahead of the railway withtruck transport or air? Do we have the assets in the area to complete supply? A thought if we can locate and cease russian rail stock in centers before they are destroyed it would ease the burden and speed for track conversion. (Historically for the Offensive in 1942 the rail had been building to supply heads for a year)
Third we have airborne assests that we could use but they at present do not seem part of the equation.( Could they be used to seize a target of importance anddisrupt areas behind the russian troops. How about a long range drop on the Kremlin compound. Although obvious suicdide if Stalin and government plus general staff could be done away with we would be cutting off the head of the snake.What does Skorzeny think????)

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Kurt_Steiner
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#15

Post by Kurt_Steiner » 22 May 2004, 20:04

I should put the blame on me for forgetting Skorzeny and Student...

As Krete as hadn't happend yet, couldn't we use the Fallschirmjäeger in Russia to capture brigdes and strategical points (Baku, for instance)?

Thanks ckleisch for your comment.

Best regards

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