Sweden could have stopped the war ?

[Darkwand]

Ive read in some history books that there was a belief that if sweden had said that it would support finland in a conflict with the USSR before the outbreak of war the stalin woulndn't have invaded ?
Is there any merit to this ? would this really have made a man like Stalin think twice? Personally I find it a little strange but considering that on paper the Swedish armed forces where the largest and best equipped in Scandinavia it would atleast have caused the plans to be revised.

[Grad]

"Said" is very vague term. Has there been pan-Scandinavian mutual defence pact perhaps Stalin would think twice.

[Mikko H.]

As long as we don't have a paper from Russian archives stating what the Soviets at the time thought on the subject, we can only speculate.

Juho Paasikivi, the Finnish ambassador to Sweden in the late 1930s, certainly thought that a Fenno-Swedish alliance would have prevented the Soviet invasion (one of Paasikivi's aims during his stay in Stockholm was to work for such an alliance). And as is well known, Red Army soldiers were admonished not to violate Swedish neutrality during the Winter War, and that certainly indicates the Soviets didn't want to get involved with Sweden.

[Grad]

I've read a book of Tanner, I think it's quite honest...

Some would say that it's it's too diplomatic but I think it's really honest. Well Sweden... they were too afriad of Hitler and Stalin...

You know every country that aspire to exist must think of themselves only... If for instance Chinese would some day attack Russia everybody understands that only Russians would face them ..

I hope Russians would be so valiant as Finns... Anyway, I don`t know what Finns think about Russians, but Finns have great reputation here....

[Steady]

Reason why Soviet troops were told not to enter Sweden was because Sweden did not belong to the Soviet sphere of influence as agreed with Germans. But what if the russians had successfully entered Sweden anyway? Would the Germans have risked a full out war with SU when they were still facing the western Allies in their other border?

[varjag]

Ive read in some history books that there was a belief that if sweden had said that it would support finland in a conflict with the USSR before the outbreak of war the stalin woulndn't have invaded ?
Is there any merit to this ? would this really have made a man like Stalin think twice? Personally I find it a little strange but considering that on paper the Swedish armed forces where the largest and best equipped in Scandinavia it would atleast have caused the plans to be revised.

Darkwand - I think your term 'the largest and best equipped' about the Swedish armed forces in 1939 could with advantage be re-phrased to; 'the least small and under-equipped' of the Scandinavian countries - those of Norway and Denmark were a joke and what Sweden could field in late 1939 were little better. Sweden gave Finland, before and during the Winter War all the diplomatic support that it could. It is even possible to argue a case that the Swedes or more precisely their Defence Staff during several years before the WW, had led their Finnish colleagues up a garden path where Finland was led to understand that in case of a Soviet attack - Swedish intervention/participation, could be expected. Such a belief seems to have stiffened the spine of the Finnish negotiators in Moscow in 1939. But whatever underhand indications there had been from the Swedish military to that effect - it seems that the Swedish government had little or no knowledge of them and when it became clear in Stockholm that the Soviets meant business - they backpedalled like monocyclists. There was never a chance that Sweden would jeopardize it's neutrality for Finland. It seems equally likely that Stalin, who had 'good ears in Sweden' - knew the Swedish position and acted accordingly.

[Tiwaz]

Reason why Soviet troops were told not to enter Sweden was because Sweden did not belong to the Soviet sphere of influence as agreed with Germans. But what if the russians had successfully entered Sweden anyway? Would the Germans have risked a full out war with SU when they were still facing the western Allies in their other border?

Definitely!

Hitler was going to attack Russia anyway, there was no doubt about it. (both Stalin and Hitler were very aware of conflict coming in the future)

If Soviets had went to Sweden Germany would have had excellent position to offer aid (similarily as to Finland after Winter War) and to gain ally. Also, since Swedes and rebellious Finns would have been a great problem and strain to Soviets it would have opened up better window of opportunity for attack. Every division occupying Finland and fighting Sweden was one division less to meet on Barbarossa.

[varjag]

I understand there is a Finnish researcher who recently published a book -
'Finland in the Eye of the Storm...' (don't know the original title) which point to the existence of a Soviet 'Operation Poro' - plan. This, originating in 1932 and rehashed in 1935-36 - was for a Soviet offensive through northern Finland and Sweden with the aim of ockupying northern Norway. Even if planning of that nature - is what all staffs do all the time - it shows that the Soviet army had prepared for - and was ready to execute if needed, such a contingency.

[leandros]

But whatever underhand indications there had been from the Swedish military to that effect - it seems that the Swedish government had little or no knowledge of them and when it became clear in Stockholm that the Soviets meant business - they backpedalled like monocyclists. There was never a chance that Sweden would jeopardize it's neutrality for Finland.

This is well described by the fact that the Swedish commander in Norrland - I do not remember his name - was put under "supervision". This on order from the political authorities. It came about as a result of his initiative to dispatch Swedish officers across the border into Finland to recce an eventual forward line of Swedish defense. The politicians wanted nothing of it! Not for their own defense - and certainly not for the Finns!

[John T]

Ive read in some history books that there was a belief that if sweden had said that it would support finland in a conflict with the USSR before the outbreak of war the stalin woulndn't have invaded ?
Is there any merit to this ? would this really have made a man like Stalin think twice? Personally I find it a little strange but considering that on paper the Swedish armed forces where the largest and best equipped in Scandinavia it would atleast have caused the plans to be revised.

On Sweden and the Winter war.

As a Swede I can't help feeling a bit off put by Finns perception that Sweden let Finland down during the Winter war,
This seems common to all, Mannerheim, Jacobsson, Turtola, Nivikivi- I do have a hard time to find a Finnish writer who does defend the Swedish actions during the winter war.
For instance Nivakivi understands that GB only sent 12 of the 60 Hurricane fighters Gripenberg asked for, while Sweden who sent one third of her total inventory of fighters where expected to done better. Sweden was the main benefactor of an independent Finland and Sweden and Finland had advanced plans for cooperation but none where politically ratified. The Judgement on what Sweden had started to discuss but not did was harder than the Judgement of was Sweden did. Agreed, lost expectations are worse than no expectations.


The German threat to Sweden is part that isn't very intuitive and the first time I read the standard work on Swedish-Finnish relations 1937-40 Walbäcks," Finlandsfrågan i Svensk politik" it took me some time to understands the line of thought within the Swedsh cabinet.
When I read Trotter's book I found that he also made some oversimplifications or misconceptions regarding Sweden’s role during the winter war so I have made this somewhat lengthy note.

Sweden between the Superpowers.
Max Jacobson simplified Scandinavian security politics at the eve of WW2 as
"Finland feared the Soviets, Denmark feared the Germans, the Sweden didn't know whom to fear most and the Norwegian’s didn't fear anyone."

Please note that the world and the leaders of small states had a different set of perceptions than we have today, League of Nations had failed and any dreams about small countries could join force and deter a major aggressive power where considered just dreams.
The mutual commitment that made NATO where simply not there, as proved by the fate of Czechoslovakia and Poland.

Sweden had a bad experience from world war one when siding with Germany in the trade war on Neutrality-theoretical reasoning. "A neutral could not take part in the blockade of one side" - This caused Sweden to get hurt by the British blockade without gaining any substantial benefits from Germany, except for some profiteers who managed to sell Swedish goods to Germany at outrageous profits. In the thirties Swedish foreign office where determined not to make the same mistake again and wanted to balance the combatants demands on Sweden.

Sweden and Great Britain
Great Britain’s strategy was to win the war by economic blockade but at the same time had to accept that "adjacent neutrals" continued to trade with Germany but only in quantities that where considered normal trade. To define normal trade was one of the major problems. The official trade statistics for 1938 where used in the Swedish - British negotiations. For the Neutrals this was mostly seen as a commercial agreement in witch you would try to maximise your own benefit. The political side where toned down by the neutrals either because of indifference with the Allied cause or fear of German retaliation.

For instance, fuel deliveries to Finland was exempted from British blockade as where replacement of Swedish fuels sent to Finland, this caused some hoarding from joint Swedish-Finnish interests. These was completely within both countries national interests and have not been noted as something extraordinary, since no one knew how long the winter war would last it was just prudent to order as large quantities as possible. On the other hand Swedish authorities did command Finnish oil shipments in Sweden after the winter war

The British Ministry of Economic Warfare believed that Germany could be strangled within seven months if Swedish deliveries of Iron ore where stopped. That was the main reason why Allied forces tried to get a foothold in Scandinavia.


Sweden and Germany:
Sweden had since 1934(?) a trade agreement with Germany and the most significant part where the Iron ore export quota.

Germans where very clear that they would consider a significant decrease of Swedish Ore export as a unfriendly act and that Allied troops on Swedish soil where explicitly seen as a cause of war. Volunteers moving as civilians were accepted but no combat ready military units. And if Sweden entered the winter war in support of Finland, Germany could no longer support Sweden due to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.


So the Swedish choices where:

- Keep low, give most possible material and financial help to Finland while trying to expand her own armed forces. Buying arms both from Germany and USA, the last ones delivered with British consent through the blockade line. And the more arms bought from abroad, the more was delivered to Finland.


- Declare war on USSR, and send as large a force to Finland as possible while keeping a guard against Germany. Swedish munitions production could not supply both the Finnish and the full Swedish army at the same time, only parts of the Swedish army could be engaged in combat while supporting the Finns. The net result would probably be that Finland could hold out a somewhat longer (bleed somewhat longer..) with the reinforcement of Swedish manpower but no major change to the overall situation.
And at the same time try to wriggle enough support from the Allies to make a difference without having to reduce the Iron ore export enough to invoke a German occupation. Swedish Foreign office had no hopes that the allies would allow Sweden to do that.


- Ally herself with Great Britain and thus explicitly declaring war on Germany, and at the same time send ”any” surplus forces to aid Finland.
Today, with hindsight, that would be the moraly correct action but with the Poles and Czech's experience of allied support not very advisable.



The only option that could have saved both Finland and Sweden where if the two countries made an alliance after the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact where signed and Germany and USSR did struck a new deal keeping Sweden and Finland within the German sphere of influence.
And in such case I’d say Germany would have saved Finland not Sweden.


Cheers
/John T.

[Mikko H.]

John T,

I, for one, fully understand why Sweden did not intervene in the Winter War, and to my best knowledge, the majority of modern Finnish historians acknowledge that Finnish hopes for a Swedish intervention were overblown and Sweden acted sensibly to her best interests. Sweden sent all the help she could, and more, and the role of the 8000+ Swedish volunteers in the defense of Finnish Lapland in late Winter War was crucial. It's tragic that Finns were led, or rather led themselves, to hope for more and were disappointed. (This is compounded by the old Finnish feeling that Finland is Sweden's best and last hope against Russia, but that's a different matter entirely.)

Do you have any information regarding the attitudes of the Swedish officer corps regarding the Winter War? From Finnish sources I've understood that the Swedish military leadership were all for intervention, and at one point during the last stage of the Winter War a Swedish general presented to her government a memorandum amounting to a demand for Sweden to join the war.

One factor in the Swedish attitude was also that many in the ruling Social Democrats apparently were somewhat suspicious of the nature of Finnish democracy, they still saw Finland in the light of the brutal Civil War of 1918 (where a number of high Swedish officers of 1940 had fought as volunteers) and felt that Finnish working class was still oppressed in one way or another. Finland's anti-socialist disturbances of the early 1930's and the language strife that was hottest at the same time certainly didn't help our cause.

As has been mentioned before in this thread, there was active mutual planning between Finnish and Swedish general staffs in the 1920s and 30s that called for active Swedish intervention in a Fenno-Russian war (IIRC the plans ultimately called for six Swedish divisions to be sent to Finland). But these plans were made for a situation where the League of Nations had declared military sanctions against the invader, and thus obliged its members to help the victim of the aggression. At the time the Scandinavian countries hoped much of the League of Nations, but as we all know, these hopes were soon dashed. The cooperation continued fitfully even after that, culminating in the abortive plans of joint fortification of the Ahvenanmaa (Åland) Islands in the late 1930s.