What would Brest Litovsk USSR look like?

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Post Reply
hselassi
Member
Posts: 142
Joined: 04 Mar 2009, 02:57

What would Brest Litovsk USSR look like?

#1

Post by hselassi » 22 Jan 2018, 04:05

I have never given much thought to this idea, but a youtube vlog on how a German victory in WWI would have been better, mentioned that, with the loss of Ukraine and the Transcaucasus, the USSR (it assumes a Bolshevik victory) would be an impoverished rural country and thus in no shape to export communism nor be an "example to the world's proletariat."

Thinking about it, it does make some sense, a lot of the industry and food was in Ukraine and the oil was in Azerbaijan, so all that is left is mostly wasteland with some industry, some oil (or not, I don't know when Kuban-Maikop started producing), and subsistence farming. After the civil war, whatever foreign exchange could be brought together would have to be used to buy food from Ukraine and equipment from Germany (assuming the Allied powers maintain their trade embargo). Maybe industrialization begins in the 30s or 40s, but it would have to be small scale unless they can find a new food source (maybe move the Holdomor to Central Asia, although I am not sure how much food that would bring) or enough foreign exchange/trade to ensure a continuous food supply from Ukraine to feed the enlarged urban work force.

Any ideas?

maltesefalcon
Member
Posts: 2047
Joined: 03 Sep 2003, 19:15
Location: Canada

Re: What would Brest Litovsk USSR look like?

#2

Post by maltesefalcon » 24 Jan 2018, 02:46

Depends on when the war ends and who is still standing. Russia prostrate would invite predatory moves from Ottomans and Hapsburg Empire. Possible pressure on Russia in Far East from Japan, especially if forced to return islands taken from Germany.

France and UK would likely lick their wounds if a sensible peace treaty left the bulk of their empires unsullied.

However, if AH is seen as greatly weakened and Russia is forced to look inward, Central Europe would be greatly unstabilized. Poles would almost certainly push for an independent nation. Greeks and Turks would likely fight. Middle East a crap shoot between colonials, Jews and Arabs. Depends on who still has stomach for a fight.

If the war ends by 1916, the US is out of the loop. Also with no real need to mitigate the Irish situation, Brits reassert their dominance.

In short, the war may be over and just starting all over again.


hselassi
Member
Posts: 142
Joined: 04 Mar 2009, 02:57

Re: What would Brest Litovsk USSR look like?

#3

Post by hselassi » 24 Jan 2018, 05:27

Maltese Falcon...The stuff dreams are made of...sorry couldn't help myself...Bogart never made a bad movie.

Back to the thread, sorry if I was not clear, but this question is not about the geopolitical situation, but about the economics and capabilities of the USSR I figure the Allied intervention would still take place and end much the same way, leaving once there was nothing to gain (Japan sticking around til '25 until it got tired of paying for troops to vacation in a wasteland). But other than 70 years of propaganda, the interventions really had no effect on the Civil War or on the USSR as a whole. Without Ukraine and the Transcaucasus and after the losses of WWI and the Civil War, what does the USSR look like, what are its economic prospects? Is it really a poor rural country with little hope of advancement, or can it industrialize as in OTL through sheer murderous will? Or maybe there is another possibility, it is just that in all my What Ifs, the USSR is always "the Other" (it is always armed and industrialized and one step behind W Europe), but this vlog got me thinking that if Brest Litovsk stuck then there is no way the USSR could be the same as in OTL, so what would it be like?

Post Reply

Return to “What if”