If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

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Markus Becker
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Re: If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

Postby Markus Becker » 13 Feb 2018 14:08

Carl are you pointing out the US could/would enter European war with full force or it delays US entry?


I'm not him but with no war in the Pacific we'd see no more than a continued defensive buildup by the USA there. Any delay would be minimal. The US and Germany were already in a full shooting war on the North Atlantic. A formal DoW would have been but a matter of time. Little time IMO.

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Re: If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

Postby Carl Schwamberger » 17 Feb 2018 19:51

thaddeus_c wrote:...
Carl are you pointing out the US could/would enter European war with full force or it delays US entry?


The first. The Occupation of FIC in October 1940-Mach/April 1941 forced a shift in the US war preparation. The thin resources on hand in this early mobilization were split with the Pacific drawing off a increasingly disportionate amount. Plus the administrative and political distraction. Absent the occupation, failed discussions over that, the bank asset freeze and embargo, and failed negotiations over that. There is far less diverted to the Pacific and the strength on hand in 1941 & early 42 is used to threaten the Axis in Europe.

Delaying US entry is not certain. The usual assumption is that without the Japanese crisis the US is not forced into war in December 1941. That is possible, but it assumes the warhawaks undistracted are able to force a decision on Hitler sooner though a even more aggressive policy. i.e: a significantly larger air and naval presence in Iceland from June 1941, or a US naval force making a port call/s in Vichy or other neutral nations near the war zone. A US squadron off Portugal or its Atlantic islands would have been inflammatory from the German PoV.

It is correct that OTL Roosevelt & the Warhawks did not have enough votes in Congress earlier for a DoW. However they may have provoked the one overriding vote, Hitlers, into being cast earlier. He had been considering the pros & cons earlier n 1941 & may have cut loose given sufficient provocation.

thaddeus_c wrote:my scenario for continued Nazi collaboration with USSR probably impossible (although avoiding invasion might not be) however placing higher value on continued relations with Vichy regime might not be?

what could Germany actually do to affect events in the Pacific? (a redux of WWI) unless they have Soviet collaboration? send u-boats to Madagascar and/or Italian East Africa.


Thats about it. Harrass the eastern end of the sea routes to the USSR? Maybe some air flights to the China ally? OTL Germany launched five or six cargo plane flights to Japan, terminating in Manchuria. The route was Germany. Bulgaria, Persia, Afghanistan, western China, Manchuria. One seems to have been intercepted at the refueling stop in China by Soviet special force. Some special agents & others could have attempted the neutral land route of Turkey, Persia, Afghanistan. Tho Brit agents would have been stalking them.

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Re: If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

Postby thaddeus_c » 18 Feb 2018 00:29

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
thaddeus_c wrote:...
Carl are you pointing out the US could/would enter European war with full force or it delays US entry?


The first. The Occupation of FIC in October 1940-Mach/April 1941 forced a shift in the US war preparation. The thin resources on hand in this early mobilization were split with the Pacific drawing off a increasingly disportionate amount. Plus the administrative and political distraction. Absent the occupation, failed discussions over that, the bank asset freeze and embargo, and failed negotiations over that. There is far less diverted to the Pacific and the strength on hand in 1941 & early 42 is used to threaten the Axis in Europe.

Delaying US entry is not certain. The usual assumption is that without the Japanese crisis the US is not forced into war in December 1941. That is possible, but it assumes the warhawaks undistracted are able to force a decision on Hitler sooner though a even more aggressive policy. i.e: a significantly larger air and naval presence in Iceland from June 1941, or a US naval force making a port call/s in Vichy or other neutral nations near the war zone. A US squadron off Portugal or its Atlantic islands would have been inflammatory from the German PoV.

It is correct that OTL Roosevelt & the Warhawks did not have enough votes in Congress earlier for a DoW. However they may have provoked the one overriding vote, Hitlers, into being cast earlier. He had been considering the pros & cons earlier n 1941 & may have cut loose given sufficient provocation.


always think the German equivalent of Pearl Harbor would be (larger) attack on Caribbean oil facilities and possibly Texas City, the stated British requirement was four tankers daily! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Neuland

my understanding the KM leadership asked for DOW against US, maybe they could be joined by Goering and LW who did not want invasion of USSR (of course Hitler might press for both?)

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Re: If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

Postby Carl Schwamberger » 18 Feb 2018 00:40

thaddeus_c wrote:...

my understanding the KM leadership asked for DOW against US, maybe they could be joined by Goering and LW who did not want invasion of USSR (of course Hitler might press for both?)


You have a date for this, or recommended source? I keep running across these third hand references to Hitler considering a DoW & would love to pin down at least one instance.

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Re: If Hitler stays on China's side during Sino-Japanese war?

Postby thaddeus_c » 18 Feb 2018 21:33

Carl Schwamberger wrote:
thaddeus_c wrote:...

my understanding the KM leadership asked for DOW against US, maybe they could be joined by Goering and LW who did not want invasion of USSR (of course Hitler might press for both?)


You have a date for this, or recommended source? I keep running across these third hand references to Hitler considering a DoW & would love to pin down at least one instance.


A War To Be Won by Murray and Millett, p. 248

they were citing summer '41


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