Avalancheon wrote: ↑03 Dec 2019, 15:41
You assume that they will execute a Mediterranean strategy with the exact same forces they had at their disposal as OTL. Even though a shift in strategy would have needed to happen about six months earlier (giving them plenty of time to tailor their army for the task). Remember, Hitler didn't make the decision to go to war with Russia in June 1941: That decision was made months earlier, in December 1940. He chose this strategy due to the unhappy outcome of his conference with Molotov in the previous month. If Hitler decided not to invade the Soviet Union, then it would be because he managed to get the terms he wanted.
Not exactly:
In this connection the important question arises of whether Hitler really
believed that the Soviet Union would join the continental bloc favoured by
Ribbentrop, which would indeed have 'represented a significant alternative to
a German attack' on that country. Must not Hitler's readiness to conclude
a 'quadripartite pact' in November 1940 be interpreted as a tactical move,
considering his 'programme', his aggressive policy towards Finland and Romania-
a policy violating the agreement of the summer of 1939-and his antiSoviet
remarks shortly before Molotov's visit? Were calls to respect the Soviet
spheres of interest not simply useful demonstrations that Germany and the
Soviet Union were standing 'shoulder to shoulder' rather than 'back to
back'. On 4 November 1940 Hitler, speaking to OKH and OKW top
leaders, observed that the Soviet Union remained the 'great problem of
Europe'. Everything had to be done 'to prepare for when the showdown
comes'.
That was why, even before his first talk with Molotov, he signed
Directive No. 18, which stated: 'Political discussions for the purpose of clarifying
Russia's attitude in the immediate future have already begun. Regardless
of the outcome of these conversations, all preparations for which verbal orders
have already been given will be continued. Further directives will follow on
this subject as soon as the basic operational plan of the army has been
submitted to me and approved.
"Germany and the Second World War", Volume IV, pp 45.