Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

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ljadw
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by ljadw » 15 Sep 2021 09:58

Good points,although
1 I doubt that Winston would be alienated from the USSR,as all neutral European countries did business with Germany
2 The amounts given by the Italian military attaché are exaggerated and not very precise .
I have found some more precise and reliable figures ( Source :Die Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Deutschen Reich und der Sowietunion von 1939-1941 , byHeinrich Schwendemann )
The agreement was signed only on 10 February 1940 with deliveries for 18 months , thus not yearly
Grain : 1 million ton
oil : 900000 ton
cotton: 91000 ton
chrome arrant : 100000
phosphate : 500000
at the end of April 1940 116000 ton of fuel and 103000 of corn had been sent.
In May 1941 5000 ton rubber from British (!) India
grain deliveries in 1941
March :93,845
April :138,685
May : 270,029
June : 131,926
Fuel deliveries
March 1941 26,293
April 93,224
May 76,217
None in June .

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 15 Sep 2021 10:36

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
14 Sep 2021 19:47
The Soviet position in September 1941 was clearly a focus for the British COS Committee. At their meeting on 27 September 1941, the Committee considered a report by the Joint Planning Staff on the defence of the Persian Gulf Area and sent a corresponding telegram to the Cs-in-C concerned (CAB79/14/35).
Thanks. I've drawn the rough line Zakho - Ruwanduz - Pahlevi (modern Bandar Anzali) below:

Image

I note the pessimism about holding the area around Lake Urmia, Tabriz, and Ardabil. This probably owes to the proximity of rail lines at the southern border of the SU, as shown here:

Image

That the line extends to cover the Turkish border shows again the (imo well-motivated) skepticism about Turkey's resistance in any ATL where the Germans have reached Iran.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:the JPS assessed that the equivalent of 3 divisions could thus be supported using the existing infrastructure)
Note that 3 divs is fewer than the 6 deemed necessary to hold the northern Iraq/Iran line.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:This is the list of routes considered by the planners:
That April '42 inland clearance capacity of 2,600t daily implies ~78k tons monthly, which exceeds the offloading capacity of the Persian Gulf ports in late 1942.

...I was going to back that up with a citation to this link: http://www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/ ... /index.htm. But it appears down? Has something happened to CMH's online resources?
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

Peter89
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Peter89 » 15 Sep 2021 12:01

ljadw wrote:
15 Sep 2021 09:58
Good points,although
1 I doubt that Winston would be alienated from the USSR,as all neutral European countries did business with Germany
2 The amounts given by the Italian military attaché are exaggerated and not very precise .
I have found some more precise and reliable figures ( Source :Die Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Deutschen Reich und der Sowietunion von 1939-1941 , byHeinrich Schwendemann )
The agreement was signed only on 10 February 1940 with deliveries for 18 months , thus not yearly
Grain : 1 million ton
oil : 900000 ton
cotton: 91000 ton
chrome arrant : 100000
phosphate : 500000
at the end of April 1940 116000 ton of fuel and 103000 of corn had been sent.
In May 1941 5000 ton rubber from British (!) India
grain deliveries in 1941
March :93,845
April :138,685
May : 270,029
June : 131,926
Fuel deliveries
March 1941 26,293
April 93,224
May 76,217
None in June .
Everyone works from two sources basically; the Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich and the Der Außenhandel Deutschlands. Everything else is refined data. I have read a Russian book long ago which seemed to rely on the data from their end of the bargain, but I did not take particular interest in history back then, so I completely forgot it.

The official German numbers are:
Image
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 15 Sep 2021 15:04

ljadw wrote:
15 Sep 2021 09:58
grain deliveries in 1941
March :93,845
April :138,685
May : 270,029
June : 131,926
...average of ~159k tons of grain per month or ~1.9mil tons/year.

Note that in 1942-43 food year, Germany obtained ~3.1mil tons of grain from the occupied SU (inc. 1/3 of General Government):

Image

...that was despite in '42-'43 occupying the largest tract of good farmland - the vast grain belt between Voronezh and Krasnodar - for only half the year.

There's a simplistic narrative that Germany got nothing from the occupied East. As with much of what you've read about WW2 (or been told on Youtube channels), it's wrong.
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 15 Sep 2021 16:19

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
15 Sep 2021 15:04
...that was despite in '42-'43 occupying the largest tract of good farmland - the vast grain belt between Voronezh and Krasnodar - for only half the year.
I guess financial year in this case means the German fiscal year which I think runs from 1 January to 31 December. So I’m not sure what dates Wirtshaftsjahr 1942/1943 actually covers. I suppose the late summer of 1942 would have been a good time to occupy much of the agricultural land.

Likewise, is there any more information on what that 3.1 million tons of grain consisted of? That year’s harvest? A combination of grain reserves and that harvest? The next year’s seed stock? I’ve been reading Anne Applebaum’s ‘Red Famine’ which covers the impact on the population and future production of taking too much out of the rural economy. It would be interesting to find a source which describes the restarting of the industrial and rural economies of the occupied territories as the Soviets recaptured them?

Regards

Tom

ljadw
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by ljadw » 15 Sep 2021 16:29

But, what was the importance of what Germany obtained from the occupied parts of the USSR,compared to its own production ?
The answer is : not much .
The meat consumption in 1942-1943 was 2,524,000 tons ,what they got from the USSR was 10 % of it .
The consumption of fat (for the same year ) was 1,114,000 ton,of which 74 % was produced in Germany . Before the war, it was less than the half .
And, a lot of the grain was not exported to Germany, but was consumed in the occupied areas .
For potatoes : the German production in 1942 was 50,5 million of tons ,what they got in the USSR was less than 3 % ,the production of Gemüse in 1942 was 5,319,900 ton ,what they got in the USSR was 5 %. The production of beet was 16 million ton, they got 1 50000 ton in the USSR .

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 15 Sep 2021 16:52

ljadw wrote:
15 Sep 2021 09:58
In May 1941 5000 ton rubber from British (!) India
The trade of embargoed goods from the British Empire through the USSR and on to Germany during this period was also known to the British and likely another source of friction between the USSR and UK when they became Allies. Source: CAB63/112 - the matter of Empire commodities ('such as jute, nickel, rubber, etc') comes up in April 1940 correspondence between the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Economic Warfare discussing the possibility of buying or bartering for Soviet lubricating oil in order to reduce the surplus oil that the Soviets could export to Germany.

The same file contains some interesting details from the British Consul in Varna about the oil passing through Bulgaria from the USSR to Germany at this point.

Regards

Tom

Tom from Cornwall
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 16 Sep 2021 19:14

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
15 Sep 2021 10:36
That April '42 inland clearance capacity of 2,600t daily implies ~78k tons monthly, which exceeds the offloading capacity of the Persian Gulf ports in late 1942.
I don't know if this was taken forward but in mid-1941 the British were looking at the possibility of supplying the USSR through Karachi as well. Source is Lord Hankey papers - CAB63/156 - Supply to USSR.
CAB63-156 - Supply to USSR - via Karachi - Jul 41.JPG
CAB63-156 - Supply to USSR - via Karachi - Jul 41 - p.2.JPG
I think there are more files in the Hankey papers for the next 12 months so I'll see if there is any more information about this subject or the development of Persian Gulf ports in there.

There are many interesting letters/minutes/memoranda in the Hankey papers. I'll start a thread in the USSR at war section to show what the Soviets were asking for during the first few months of their war.

Interesting that much was from British Empire sources - wool from Australia and New Zealand, Jute from India, rubber from Malaya (plus some from stocks already in UK), tin from Malaya and N.E.I., lead from "Empire Sources" and initially a ship-load sourced at Rangoon, shellac from India, etc.

Regards

Tom
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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 17 Sep 2021 02:57

Tom from Cornwall wrote:Interesting that much was from British Empire sources - wool from Australia and New Zealand, Jute from India, rubber from Malaya (plus some from stocks already in UK), tin from Malaya and N.E.I., lead from "Empire Sources" and initially a ship-load sourced at Rangoon, shellac from India, etc.
I always assumed that the Persian Corridor would originally have been for Empire goods - otherwise the shipping logistics simply don't make sense in 1941 when the threat to the Northern Route hasn't quite materialized. Never had confirmation of that intuition so thanks.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:in mid-1941 the British were looking at the possibility of supplying the USSR through Karachi as well
The passage is interesting. There was an overland route from Karachi to Mashhad via Zahedan (IIRC) but IIRC this was never actually used. I'd provide a cite but, again, the CMH publications on the Persian Corridor appear to have disappeared.

I'd be interested to see whether this letter refers to the Zahedan route or something else. Zahedan/Mashhad are still in Iran but the far east part. Is that what "practically avoiding" Iran territory means? Like we'll just use a little of your territory? Or does this reference a route via Afghanistan?
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

Peter89
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Peter89 » 17 Sep 2021 09:07

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Sep 2021 02:57
I'd provide a cite but, again, the CMH publications on the Persian Corridor appear to have disappeared.
Would you like to have a copy?
“And while I am talking to you, mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." - FDR, October 1940

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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 17 Sep 2021 10:27

Peter89 wrote:
17 Sep 2021 09:07
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Sep 2021 02:57
I'd provide a cite but, again, the CMH publications on the Persian Corridor appear to have disappeared.
Would you like to have a copy?
It's back up, thanks. The link from wiki I used is suspect, maybe someone modified it for nefarious reasons.

Anyway, here's a map showing Karchi - Zahedan - Mashhad route, first sector by rail:

Image

Surely this is what the writer of Tom's letter is referencing; it's just odd he thinks this "practically avoids" Iranian territory. Imperialism is a helluva drug.

-------------------

From the below diagrams one can also see that Persian Corridor rail+road movements were not at the above-projected 78k t/mo until well into 1943:

Image

Image

Conceivably a massive earlier effort could have brought this forward but it's difficult to envision the resources for that effort.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:Likewise, is there any more information on what that 3.1 million tons of grain consisted of? That year’s harvest? A combination of grain reserves and that harvest? The next year’s seed stock?
Grain collected during the year. In Harvest of Despair there's discussion of the Germans having looted grain reserves already by 1942 (as one would expect) but also of a German decision to leave sufficient seed stock.
Tom from Cornwall wrote:I’ve been reading Anne Applebaum’s ‘Red Famine’ which covers the impact on the population and future production of taking too much out of the rural economy. It would be interesting to find a source which describes the restarting of the industrial and rural economies of the occupied territories as the Soviets recaptured them?
I can't stand Applebaum but she's right on this point. Ironically, because the Germans were not as good at pillaging the peasants as were the Soviets, Harvest of Despair argues that Soviet peasants ate better under German occupation than under the SU (Soviet city dwellers were far worse off of course). What enabled Germany to extract a significant food surplus was (1) a somewhat rational program to give rural producers decent incentives and (2) absolute indifference* to city-dweller survival, except insofar as they were working for Germany.

*To a certain extent intentional murder via starvation as envisioned by the Hunger Plan. But by no later than the Battle of Moscow, Germany realized it would be better to turn the occupied SU into a workhouse rather than wasteland (Jewish people aside of course). The degree to which the Hunger Plan was systemic policy and, if so, for how long, is debatable. IMO it's a debate between the moral equivalents of reckless homicide and first-degree murder (Jewish people aside), which for our purposes is tangential.
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

ljadw
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by ljadw » 17 Sep 2021 18:08

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
15 Sep 2021 16:19
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
15 Sep 2021 15:04
...that was despite in '42-'43 occupying the largest tract of good farmland - the vast grain belt between Voronezh and Krasnodar - for only half the year.
I guess financial year in this case means the German fiscal year which I think runs from 1 January to 31 December. So I’m not sure what dates Wirtshaftsjahr 1942/1943 actually covers. I suppose the late summer of 1942 would have been a good time to occupy much of the agricultural land.

Likewise, is there any more information on what that 3.1 million tons of grain consisted of? That year’s harvest? A combination of grain reserves and that harvest? The next year’s seed stock? I’ve been reading Anne Applebaum’s ‘Red Famine’ which covers the impact on the population and future production of taking too much out of the rural economy. It would be interesting to find a source which describes the restarting of the industrial and rural economies of the occupied territories as the Soviets recaptured them?

Regards

Tom
The German minister of Finance,Schwerin von Krosigk ,wrote on 19 April 1941 a letter to Göring,in which he said that the occupation of the USSR would not make better the German food situation in the short or long term .
Source : Die wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem deutschen Reich und der Sowjetunion 1939-1941 P 297 .
About the oil imports from the USSR :
In 1940 these were 606000 ton on a total of 6,9 million ton that was available for Germany (production and import )
In 1941 they were 268000 ton on a total of 8,48 million ton that was available .

ljadw
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by ljadw » 17 Sep 2021 18:42

From the same source ( P 386 ) :
between July 1941 and March 1944 the WM received 5,65 million tons of grain from the USSR and Germany 1,16 million tons.
If one compares this to the German grain production, the conclusion is that Schwerin von Krosigk was right .

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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by Tom from Cornwall » 17 Sep 2021 20:44

TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Sep 2021 10:27
Surely this is what the writer of Tom's letter is referencing; it's just odd he thinks this "practically avoids" Iranian territory. Imperialism is a helluva drug.
I think there was some crazy idea of an Afghanistan route - although it was recognised that arranging that might be challenging! We shouldn't forget that the context was that Iran hadn't yet been "protected" by the British and Soviets, and that there was an ongoing dust-up in Syria and Iraq at about this point as well.
TheMarcksPlan wrote:
17 Sep 2021 10:27
Conceivably a massive earlier effort could have brought this forward but it's difficult to envision the resources for that effort.
I don't know how much the impact of the outbreak of the war with Japan diverted resources intended to be used (in plans made in summer 1941) to improve communications and infrastructure facilities for the trans-Persian gulf route. I'll see what later papers have to say.

Regards

Tom

ljadw
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Re: Could a German invasion of Turkey succeed?

Post by ljadw » 18 Sep 2021 11:05

Tom from Cornwall wrote:
15 Sep 2021 16:52
ljadw wrote:
15 Sep 2021 09:58
In May 1941 5000 ton rubber from British (!) India
The trade of embargoed goods from the British Empire through the USSR and on to Germany during this period was also known to the British and likely another source of friction between the USSR and UK when they became Allies. Source: CAB63/112 - the matter of Empire commodities ('such as jute, nickel, rubber, etc') comes up in April 1940 correspondence between the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Economic Warfare discussing the possibility of buying or bartering for Soviet lubricating oil in order to reduce the surplus oil that the Soviets could export to Germany.

The same file contains some interesting details from the British Consul in Varna about the oil passing through Bulgaria from the USSR to Germany at this point.

Regards

Tom
But, did Britain buy/propose to buy Soviet oil,to reduce the Soviet oil exports to Germany ?
If they didn't it ,they could not complain about the Soviet oil exports to Germany .

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