"Czechoslovakia '38-What If They'd Fought?"

[Oversaltmountain]

The problem with the CSR was that they were basically surrounded from the start. Just because of the geography. Their airforce was obsolete, more than the Polish one, if that is even possible. I don't see how Germany would have suffered any significant losses. France & the UK weren't ready at all, Poland also wanted a piece of the CSR, so Poland might have even become an ally of Germany. If the French and the British would have dared to attack Germany in 38, they probably would have suffered an even worse defeat than 1940. Look up their aircraft. The only competetive models were either just coming out of the factory, or they were still in development.

Hawker Hurricane (UK): first squadron in february 1938
MS406 (FRA): first flight january 1939

Everything else would have had no chance against the Luftwaffe in 1938.

[ljadw]

In September 1939 Britain had 2 divisions available and these 2 divisions arrived in France at the end of September 1939, thus France was on her own in 1938, Britain could offer only blabla .

[lahoda]

The problem with the CSR was that they were basically surrounded from the start. Just because of the geography.

There were long borders with hostile countries, but Czechoslovakia was not surrounded. The plan how to cope was to establish military alliance. They had one with France (had not France shamefully backed out of it) which would cause a two-front war for Germany. If they had to split their forces, the numbers won't work for them. There was also Little Entente, which would very probably keep Hungary in check. Relations with Poland weren't great, and there is Beneš and Beck to blame, and while there was a unsettled dispute over Zaolzie, it is far-fetched to assume Poland to take active role in 1938 - there was also an Czechoslovak alliance with USSR and while it is questionable if Stalin wanted to provide any real help to Czechoslovakia, he would most likely threaten Poland out of it. So it was basically Germany vs. Czechoslovakia, with a prospect of Germany waging two front war....not exactly surrounding scenario you are trying to paint.

Their airforce was obsolete, more than the Polish one, if that is even possible. I don't see how Germany would have suffered any significant losses.

Can you back your assumption by some arguments? Polish planes (PZL P-11c was the main type used but there were only 152 planes of this type available in 9/1939) looked more modern as they were monoplanes, but that doesn't make your argument to be valid. They were powered by a weak engine (Mercury V.S2 with 600 hp) giving them top speed of 367 km/h. Avia B-534, while being a biplane, had 850 hp Hispano-Suiza engine, with top speed 380-400 km/h and superb 15 m/s climb rate. Bf-109 was faster (max speed around 460 km/h depending on variant) but the engine was also relatively weak (Jumo 210 with 600-700 hp depending on variant) and also being heavier with less wing area, thus climb rate was significantly lower than B-534, at about 10 m/s, and B-534 was also more maneuverable. Some bf-109 only had 2 machine guns, B-534 had double of that.
There were about 500 Bf-109 in B,C,D variants in 1938 and it is safe to assume that many of them were needed in the defense of Germany, especially if France (and its somewhat obsolete aircraft entered the war), the substantial part of first line fighters in Luftwaffe were still equipped with Arado Ar-68 and Heinkel He-51 (the later more in a ground attack role, famous ace gen. Galland flew He-51 in 1938). German pilots had one less year of training and many pilots were still engaged in Spain. The more powerful Bf-109 E were only introduced in December 1938, and for Polish campaign there were no biplanes in front-line Luftwaffe (230 Bf-109 D and rest were Bf-109 E models) - yet Polish Air Force was able to put a decent fight against superior opponents. It would be on much more equal terms in 1938 against Czechoslovak Air Force and it is far from given that Germany would get immediate air superiority and contrary your claim, their casualties would be probably rather high. Plus the weather was super ugly in October.

France & the UK weren't ready at all, Poland also wanted a piece of the CSR, so Poland might have even become an ally of Germany. If the French and the British would have dared to attack Germany in 38, they probably would have suffered an even worse defeat than 1940.

If Germany attacked Czechoslovakia, they needed all air force they could get to cope with Czechoslovak Air Force which was not that small, and the remaining aircraft would be in defensive mode only on other fronts. Luftwaffe was not capable of waging war against Czechoslovakia and France in the air at the same time, they didn't have enough planes, and more importantly, not enough trained crews. There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia. UK was totally safe, even with Gladiators.

Look up their aircraft. The only competetive models were either just coming out of the factory, or they were still in development.
Hawker Hurricane (UK): first squadron in february 1938
MS406 (FRA): first flight january 1939
Everything else would have had no chance against the Luftwaffe in 1938.

Same was true for Germany. The air war would be much different in 1938, compared to 1939 and 1940. Each year made a huge difference. Germany was very good at bluffing their strength, using tricks, smoke and mirrors (quite literally, see what they did with He-112 unit during gen. Gamelin inspection tour in Germany) and ultimately were successful with that tactic. But in real air battle in 1938, their effectiveness would be far less to what happened in Poland.

[ljadw]

The problem with the CSR was that they were basically surrounded from the start. Just because of the geography.

There were long borders with hostile countries, but Czechoslovakia was not surrounded. The plan how to cope was to establish military alliance. They had one with France (had not France shamefully backed out of it) which would cause a two-front war for Germany. If they had to split their forces, the numbers won't work for them. There was also Little Entente, which would very probably keep Hungary in check. Relations with Poland weren't great, and there is Beneš and Beck to blame, and while there was a unsettled dispute over Zaolzie, it is far-fetched to assume Poland to take active role in 1938 - there was also an Czechoslovak alliance with USSR and while it is questionable if Stalin wanted to provide any real help to Czechoslovakia, he would most likely threaten Poland out of it. So it was basically Germany vs. Czechoslovakia, with a prospect of Germany waging two front war....not exactly surrounding scenario you are trying to paint.

Their airforce was obsolete, more than the Polish one, if that is even possible. I don't see how Germany would have suffered any significant losses.

Can you back your assumption by some arguments? Polish planes (PZL P-11c was the main type used but there were only 152 planes of this type available in 9/1939) looked more modern as they were monoplanes, but that doesn't make your argument to be valid. They were powered by a weak engine (Mercury V.S2 with 600 hp) giving them top speed of 367 km/h. Avia B-534, while being a biplane, had 850 hp Hispano-Suiza engine, with top speed 380-400 km/h and superb 15 m/s climb rate. Bf-109 was faster (max speed around 460 km/h depending on variant) but the engine was also relatively weak (Jumo 210 with 600-700 hp depending on variant) and also being heavier with less wing area, thus climb rate was significantly lower than B-534, at about 10 m/s, and B-534 was also more maneuverable. Some bf-109 only had 2 machine guns, B-534 had double of that.
There were about 500 Bf-109 in B,C,D variants in 1938 and it is safe to assume that many of them were needed in the defense of Germany, especially if France (and its somewhat obsolete aircraft entered the war), the substantial part of first line fighters in Luftwaffe were still equipped with Arado Ar-68 and Heinkel He-51 (the later more in a ground attack role, famous ace gen. Galland flew He-51 in 1938). German pilots had one less year of training and many pilots were still engaged in Spain. The more powerful Bf-109 E were only introduced in December 1938, and for Polish campaign there were no biplanes in front-line Luftwaffe (230 Bf-109 D and rest were Bf-109 E models) - yet Polish Air Force was able to put a decent fight against superior opponents. It would be on much more equal terms in 1938 against Czechoslovak Air Force and it is far from given that Germany would get immediate air superiority and contrary your claim, their casualties would be probably rather high. Plus the weather was super ugly in October.

France & the UK weren't ready at all, Poland also wanted a piece of the CSR, so Poland might have even become an ally of Germany. If the French and the British would have dared to attack Germany in 38, they probably would have suffered an even worse defeat than 1940.

If Germany attacked Czechoslovakia, they needed all air force they could get to cope with Czechoslovak Air Force which was not that small, and the remaining aircraft would be in defensive mode only on other fronts. Luftwaffe was not capable of waging war against Czechoslovakia and France in the air at the same time, they didn't have enough planes, and more importantly, not enough trained crews. There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia. UK was totally safe, even with Gladiators.

Look up their aircraft. The only competetive models were either just coming out of the factory, or they were still in development.
Hawker Hurricane (UK): first squadron in february 1938
MS406 (FRA): first flight january 1939
Everything else would have had no chance against the Luftwaffe in 1938.

Same was true for Germany. The air war would be much different in 1938, compared to 1939 and 1940. Each year made a huge difference. Germany was very good at bluffing their strength, using tricks, smoke and mirrors (quite literally, see what they did with He-112 unit during gen. Gamelin inspection tour in Germany) and ultimately were successful with that tactic. But in real air battle in 1938, their effectiveness would be far less to what happened in Poland.

I see that you don't know that CZ had no common border with the USSR and that Stalin could not help CZ, not that he had any intention to do it .Stalin could not do anything against Poland, as France had a treaty with Poland and Romania against the USSR :these two countries were the Cordon Sanitaire to prtevent ant Soviret advance in Europe .
Gamelin did not inspect the LW in 1938 ( he could even not distinguish a Heinkel from a Dornier ) ,Vuillemain, chief of the French air force visited ( NOT :inspected ) the LW .
And Vuillemain admitted that the French air force could do nothing to help CZ.The Bef-109 was not needed at the German western border,as the french air force could do nothing against Germany .

[Oversaltmountain]

There were long borders with hostile countries, but Czechoslovakia was not surrounded.

How were they supposed to prevent getting cut in pieces, and themselves outmanouver the Germans (&Hungarians/Poles)? The Polish tried the "no step back"-approach and got smashed for it. When I say that the CSR was surrounded just because of their geography, I presuppose that they would have lost the Sudetenland, because there you had a German, hence hostile population. From this position the CSR-army would have had all the cards stacked against them.

There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia.

The chance was bigger than in 1940. The Germans had superior tactics, made possible by their radio equipment, something that the french didn't have. The french still relied on flags for the communication between tanks. There was no way how they would not get outmanouvered and encircled like in 1940.

The idea that Stalin would have honored contracts or rushed to anybody's defense is very far from reality. There was also no realistic scenario of Yugoslavia and Romania engaging in a war against Hungary and Germany. Besides the fact that both countries had no military to fight a modern war with (yes, they had men & rifles, but that alone doesn't constitute a strong military), the Romanians were far too concerned of getting swallowed up by the USSR. Yugoslavia was a country with way too many internal problems. They knew their weaknesses very well.

Can you back your assumption by some arguments? Polish planes (PZL P-11c was the main type used but there were only 152 planes of this type available in 9/1939) looked more modern as they were monoplanes, but that doesn't make your argument to be valid. They were powered by a weak engine (Mercury V.S2 with 600 hp) giving them top speed of 367 km/h. Avia B-534, while being a biplane, had 850 hp Hispano-Suiza engine, with top speed 380-400 km/h and superb 15 m/s climb rate. Bf-109 was faster (max speed around 460 km/h depending on variant) but the engine was also relatively weak (Jumo 210 with 600-700 hp depending on variant) and also being heavier with less wing area, thus climb rate was significantly lower than B-534, at about 10 m/s, and B-534 was also more maneuverable. Some bf-109 only had 2 machine guns, B-534 had double of that.
There were about 500 Bf-109 in B,C,D variants in 1938 and it is safe to assume that many of them were needed in the defense of Germany, especially if France (and its somewhat obsolete aircraft entered the war), the substantial part of first line fighters in Luftwaffe were still equipped with Arado Ar-68 and Heinkel He-51 (the later more in a ground attack role, famous ace gen. Galland flew He-51 in 1938). German pilots had one less year of training and many pilots were still engaged in Spain. The more powerful Bf-109 E were only introduced in December 1938, and for Polish campaign there were no biplanes in front-line Luftwaffe (230 Bf-109 D and rest were Bf-109 E models) - yet Polish Air Force was able to put a decent fight against superior opponents. It would be on much more equal terms in 1938 against Czechoslovak Air Force and it is far from given that Germany would get immediate air superiority and contrary your claim, their casualties would be probably rather high. Plus the weather was super ugly in October.

You make it look like the Avia B534 was ever equal to the Bf109. I have a problem with the numbers you use. Where are the numbers for the B534 from? I assume they are from tests. In July or August 1938 the Bf109 broke the world speed record with 611 kmh. Neither the older models of Bf109, nor the E were every able to archive this speed in combat situation. So where are the top speed-numbers for the B534 from, and are they even credible? "Climb rate" is not a unchangable constant, it depends on many factors. In the end, you have to look at the combat experience of both aircraft. We know about the track record of the Bf109. The Avia B534 though never fared well anywhere. It was used in Spain and did in fact have an encounter with Bf109-prototypes. If I remember it correctly, it was just 3 vs 3, but one B534 was shot down and the other two quickly peeled off and retreated. The B534 was also used very unsuccessfully in the Slovak-Hungarian war. Afterwards all operators, including the Greeks, Slovaks and Bulgarians, never seriously considered using this aircraft as a front line fighter, so the operators themselves had no confidence in the B534 - even though some biplanes were used in frontline service up until around 1943, in some cases like the Hs123 longer. I think this is more important than "Climb rate" or "top speed". Even more important are tactics and tactical capabilities.With the latter I mean things like radio equipment. Did the Avia B534 even have radio? What would the tactics of the CSR-air force have been? If they thought air warfare in WW2 would have been winning dog fights like in WW1, they would have been on the wrong path.

yet Polish Air Force was able to put a decent fight against superior opponents.

Their airforce was pretty much smashed in 6 days. The Germans lost 67 Bf109's in Poland, most of them in accidents and after the 6th day to anti-aircraft fire, when they used the Bf109 as a ground attack aircraft

[Huszar666]

The B534 was also used very unsuccessfully in the Slovak-Hungarian war.

That was against CR 32s, which were theoretically worse in every way.

Even if we assume, neither Poland, nor Hungary enters the war, the CSR still would have to keep enough troops on those borders (about half the borders were facing Germany, and half Poland and Hungary, with only a minuscule part to Romania) in case of "surprises".

It is quite clear, any Germans (and Hungarians) in the Army, assuming, there were any, would change flags as soon as the shooting starts (plus an uprising in the Sudetenland), and I'm not certain, the Slovaks would fight that hard either. With a Pater Tiso in the pocket, it is possible, they would just go home, and declare a country of their own.

[ljadw]

The problem with the CSR was that they were basically surrounded from the start. Just because of the geography.

There were long borders with hostile countries, but Czechoslovakia was not surrounded. The plan how to cope was to establish military alliance. They had one with France (had not France shamefully backed out of it) which would cause a two-front war for Germany. If they had to split their forces, the numbers won't work for them. There was also Little Entente, which would very probably keep Hungary in check. Relations with Poland weren't great, and there is Beneš and Beck to blame, and while there was a unsettled dispute over Zaolzie, it is far-fetched to assume Poland to take active role in 1938 - there was also an Czechoslovak alliance with USSR and while it is questionable if Stalin wanted to provide any real help to Czechoslovakia, he would most likely threaten Poland out of it. So it was basically Germany vs. Czechoslovakia, with a prospect of Germany waging two front war....not exactly surrounding scenario you are trying to paint.

Their airforce was obsolete, more than the Polish one, if that is even possible. I don't see how Germany would have suffered any significant losses.

Can you back your assumption by some arguments? Polish planes (PZL P-11c was the main type used but there were only 152 planes of this type available in 9/1939) looked more modern as they were monoplanes, but that doesn't make your argument to be valid. They were powered by a weak engine (Mercury V.S2 with 600 hp) giving them top speed of 367 km/h. Avia B-534, while being a biplane, had 850 hp Hispano-Suiza engine, with top speed 380-400 km/h and superb 15 m/s climb rate. Bf-109 was faster (max speed around 460 km/h depending on variant) but the engine was also relatively weak (Jumo 210 with 600-700 hp depending on variant) and also being heavier with less wing area, thus climb rate was significantly lower than B-534, at about 10 m/s, and B-534 was also more maneuverable. Some bf-109 only had 2 machine guns, B-534 had double of that.
There were about 500 Bf-109 in B,C,D variants in 1938 and it is safe to assume that many of them were needed in the defense of Germany, especially if France (and its somewhat obsolete aircraft entered the war), the substantial part of first line fighters in Luftwaffe were still equipped with Arado Ar-68 and Heinkel He-51 (the later more in a ground attack role, famous ace gen. Galland flew He-51 in 1938). German pilots had one less year of training and many pilots were still engaged in Spain. The more powerful Bf-109 E were only introduced in December 1938, and for Polish campaign there were no biplanes in front-line Luftwaffe (230 Bf-109 D and rest were Bf-109 E models) - yet Polish Air Force was able to put a decent fight against superior opponents. It would be on much more equal terms in 1938 against Czechoslovak Air Force and it is far from given that Germany would get immediate air superiority and contrary your claim, their casualties would be probably rather high. Plus the weather was super ugly in October.

France & the UK weren't ready at all, Poland also wanted a piece of the CSR, so Poland might have even become an ally of Germany. If the French and the British would have dared to attack Germany in 38, they probably would have suffered an even worse defeat than 1940.

If Germany attacked Czechoslovakia, they needed all air force they could get to cope with Czechoslovak Air Force which was not that small, and the remaining aircraft would be in defensive mode only on other fronts. Luftwaffe was not capable of waging war against Czechoslovakia and France in the air at the same time, they didn't have enough planes, and more importantly, not enough trained crews. There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia. UK was totally safe, even with Gladiators.

Look up their aircraft. The only competetive models were either just coming out of the factory, or they were still in development.
Hawker Hurricane (UK): first squadron in february 1938
MS406 (FRA): first flight january 1939
Everything else would have had no chance against the Luftwaffe in 1938.

Same was true for Germany. The air war would be much different in 1938, compared to 1939 and 1940. Each year made a huge difference. Germany was very good at bluffing their strength, using tricks, smoke and mirrors (quite literally, see what they did with He-112 unit during gen. Gamelin inspection tour in Germany) and ultimately were successful with that tactic. But in real air battle in 1938, their effectiveness would be far less to what happened in Poland.

France did not shamefully backed out of it,as there was no French promise to invade Germany if this attacked Czechoslovakia , unless you can produce the text of such military treaty .Besides, it was easy for CZ to have France as an ally : they had only to refuse the German demands and Germany would attack her,this would force France to declare ,unwillingly, war on Germany .
CZ did not do this, because it knew that a French DOW would not help her , but that UK and France would wage, after the fall of CZ, a war of revenge that would not solve the problem of the Sudeten Germans and would deliver CZ to the USSR .

[antwony]

There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia.

The chance was bigger than in 1940. The Germans had superior tactics, made possible by their radio equipment, something that the french didn't have. The french still relied on flags for the communication between tanks. There was no way how they would not get outmanouvered and encircled like in 1940.

The German military massively developed, year on year, in the lead up to the war. France made some improvements, but in comparison to the German's they didn't do much.

Saying the German army of 1938 is much better than the 1940 version is kind of silly.

Also, did Panzer 2's have radios? I know the early Panzer 1's didn't.

It was used in Spain and did in fact have an encounter with Bf109-prototypes

Interesting claim, do you have a source for that?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Now I'm looking over the relevant war-game descriptions & trying to identify some that might adequately test some of the assorted arguments here.

[Oversaltmountain]

There was zero chance France would get defeated in 1938 had Germany simultaneously engaged Czechoslovakia.

The chance was bigger than in 1940. The Germans had superior tactics, made possible by their radio equipment, something that the french didn't have. The french still relied on flags for the communication between tanks. There was no way how they would not get outmanouvered and encircled like in 1940.

The German military massively developed, year on year, in the lead up to the war. France made some improvements, but in comparison to the German's they didn't do much.

Saying the German army of 1938 is much better than the 1940 version is kind of silly.

Also, did Panzer 2's have radios? I know the early Panzer 1's didn't.

It was used in Spain and did in fact have an encounter with Bf109-prototypes

Interesting claim, do you have a source for that?

I didn't say the German army was better, i said the french and british militaries were worse, and the geopolitical situation could have shifted more in Germany's favor.
I would be very surprised if there is a Panzer II-version without radio equipment.

And on the subject Avia B534 vs Bf109-prototype in Spain: German night fighter-ace Guenter Radusch tells the story in the book "Messerschmitt Bf109 in Action Part 1" by John R.Beaman jr & Jerry L. Campbell. You can find it on archive.org