What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

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Peter89
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Peter89 » 12 Feb 2024 21:25

Gooner1 wrote:
12 Feb 2024 11:56
Peter89 wrote:
11 Feb 2024 07:24
Churchill certainly didn't agree with you. Neither did Cunningham who was defeated at the Battle of Dakar. In general, I don't think any Brits who died fighting Vichy troops where Germany couldn't exercise control would agree with you.
There is no question of Vichy France undertaking aggressive action against Britain. Fiercely defending against British attacks - yes; attacking - no.

If they did no such thing in the real world despite repeated British invasions and attacks, why would they now?
I'm not arguing that Vichy France would do an aggressive action against Britain.

I'm arguing that Vichy France possessed the capability that could turn the tide in the fight between the Axis and Britain. This included a fleet and bases that could negate the British superiority on the seas. Germany's ability to project power in Africa, the Middle East, the South Atlantic, etc. highly depended on the degree of Vichy cooperation.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

Gooner1
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Gooner1 » 13 Feb 2024 19:05

Peter89 wrote:
12 Feb 2024 21:25

I'm not arguing that Vichy France would do an aggressive action against Britain.

I'm arguing that Vichy France possessed the capability that could turn the tide in the fight between the Axis and Britain. This included a fleet and bases that could negate the British superiority on the seas. Germany's ability to project power in Africa, the Middle East, the South Atlantic, etc. highly depended on the degree of Vichy cooperation.
Hard to see how Vichy France could 'turn the tide in the fight between the Axis and Britain' without taking aggressive action against the British.
Even allowing the Germans to use French bases is likely to cause a kick-back and not just from the British. Careful not to ignore the elephant in the room (or is that whale in the pond?) here especially when talking of the Atlantic.

Peter89
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Peter89 » 13 Feb 2024 20:28

Gooner1 wrote:
13 Feb 2024 19:05
Peter89 wrote:
12 Feb 2024 21:25

I'm not arguing that Vichy France would do an aggressive action against Britain.

I'm arguing that Vichy France possessed the capability that could turn the tide in the fight between the Axis and Britain. This included a fleet and bases that could negate the British superiority on the seas. Germany's ability to project power in Africa, the Middle East, the South Atlantic, etc. highly depended on the degree of Vichy cooperation.
Hard to see how Vichy France could 'turn the tide in the fight between the Axis and Britain' without taking aggressive action against the British.
Even allowing the Germans to use French bases is likely to cause a kick-back and not just from the British. Careful not to ignore the elephant in the room (or is that whale in the pond?) here especially when talking of the Atlantic.
As if the British - and not just the British - didn't kick Vichy France without any provocation. The British didn't have the force to contain the Axis if Vichy France decided to cooperate with Germany more keenly. And if Germany gets bases in the South Atlantic and in the Indian Ocean, the British forces would be spread too thin to cover the supply lines in their entire length. Indeed, until mid-1942 not even the naval blockade was fully functioning - with the war in the Soviet Union and American help.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Gooner1 » 14 Feb 2024 00:43

Peter89 wrote:
13 Feb 2024 20:28

As if the British - and not just the British - didn't kick Vichy France without any provocation. The British didn't have the force to contain the Axis if Vichy France decided to cooperate with Germany more keenly.
Yeah, I think they did. The British weren't exactly hitting Vichy French ships on sight either.
And if Germany gets bases in the South Atlantic and in the Indian Ocean, the British forces would be spread too thin to cover the supply lines in their entire length. Indeed, until mid-1942 not even the naval blockade was fully functioning - with the war in the Soviet Union and American help.
Indian Ocean?! South Atlantic?!? Bit of a fever dream for some this thread.

Peter89
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Peter89 » 14 Feb 2024 08:10

Gooner1 wrote:
14 Feb 2024 00:43
Peter89 wrote:
13 Feb 2024 20:28

As if the British - and not just the British - didn't kick Vichy France without any provocation. The British didn't have the force to contain the Axis if Vichy France decided to cooperate with Germany more keenly.
Yeah, I think they did. The British weren't exactly hitting Vichy French ships on sight either.
It is not about thinking.

And yes, the British did that exactly when they had the force to take this or that Vichy colony. It might strike you as a surprise, but there were even naval battles between the two.
Gooner1 wrote:
14 Feb 2024 00:43
And if Germany gets bases in the South Atlantic and in the Indian Ocean, the British forces would be spread too thin to cover the supply lines in their entire length. Indeed, until mid-1942 not even the naval blockade was fully functioning - with the war in the Soviet Union and American help.
Indian Ocean?! South Atlantic?!? Bit of a fever dream for some this thread.
Again it's not a dream, it's reality. Or do you deny that Vichy France held ports on the shores of these oceans...?
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

Gooner1
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Gooner1 » 14 Feb 2024 15:16

Peter89 wrote:
14 Feb 2024 08:10
It is not about thinking.
Not in your case, no.
Again it's not a dream, it's reality. Or do you deny that Vichy France held ports on the shores of these oceans...?
Please enlighten us as to what bases Vichy France held in the South Atlantic?

Peter89
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Peter89 » 14 Feb 2024 16:35

Gooner1 wrote:
14 Feb 2024 15:16
Peter89 wrote:
14 Feb 2024 08:10
It is not about thinking.
Not in your case, no.
Again it's not a dream, it's reality. Or do you deny that Vichy France held ports on the shores of these oceans...?
Please enlighten us as to what bases Vichy France held in the South Atlantic?
Adjust your manners according to the forum rules.
"Everything remained theory and hypothesis. On paper, in his plans, in his head, he juggled with Geschwaders and Divisions, while in reality there were really only makeshift squadrons at his disposal."

ljadw
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by ljadw » 14 Feb 2024 17:28

The possibility for Germany to use French naval and aerial bases on the coast of West Africa ,could be a possible danger for Britain, but only theoretically,as
1 Germany had not the needed air and naval forces for theses bases :Germany had only some 12/14 U Boats available after the fall of France .Dakar in German hands would only be a wast for Germany .
2 Germany could not supply these forces and bases
3 Germany could not prevent Britain from capturing these forces .
Thus : the proposals from Räder were only good for under the bus .

glenn239
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by glenn239 » 15 Feb 2024 01:32

Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Feb 2024 21:18
So you think that the "Yugosalvian crisis" was dependent on BARBAROSSA?
Yes. Hitler forced Yugoslavia to join the Tripartite Pact in March 1941, which caused the coup in the army that triggered the German invasion. Hitler did this because of pending Barbarossa. No Barbarossa, no coup. The Germans would, of course, need to shore up their Italian allies in their abortive war in Greece, but this could be done via Albania, seeking a return to the status quo ante prior to the Italian assault.
So the Ostheer of the French Campaign gets disbanded too? Neat.
I think the Germans look to have required about 120 divisions, maximum, to execute a Sealion strategy.
So your UBERSEELÖWE now includes invasions of Norway (sic, Sweden) and Spain? Neat.
Spain would have to allow the neutralization and the transfer of elements of the Italian fleet into the Atlantic, while Sweden would need to have all ball bearing industry closely supervised and provide naval elements for Sealion. The chances either would result in actual invasions I think would be small.

glenn239
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by glenn239 » 15 Feb 2024 02:22

Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Feb 2024 22:19
The only misconception is what you thought I was saying.

Yes, "truck engines" can be adapted to naval craft, if you had actually read some of my remarks earlier you would know that - a Grey Marine Diesel is a GMC 6-71 by another name, and with considerable modification. The "some adaptation" required changes to the exhaust, cooling, electrical and fuel systems. The alternator, distributors, fuel pumps, and water pumps all have to be modified or newly built to marine specifications and then installed. If seawater cooling is used, then additional components need to be remanufactured and/or manufactured to different specifications. The engine camshafts need to be reground to different specs, freeze plugs of different non-corrosive material need to be installed, a different intake manifold needs to be manufactured and installed, larger bearings need to be manufactured and installed, and piston rings need to be manufactured and installed.
I suspect cooling would be the big one. Distributor, not a diesel thing. Alternators, starters, fuel pumps, water pumps, I think the effect of a marine usage would be a faster failure rate due to corrosion. These problems I bet are a big problem for companies using a ship for decades. Not so much for a military using a vessel for six months.
Nope. SEELÖWE planning began in earnest on 2 July 1940, but Siebel began work on 25 July, completed the first 27 ad hoc prototypes on 16 November 1940, began work on a second series based on Ford truck engines and completed four more before by the end of the year before that type was abandoned due to lack of sufficient engines, and the BMW-engine type was finally settled on. The development contract for the MFP was 5 December 1940 and testing of the first one was 12 March 1941. Those preparations continued with the cancellation/delay of SEELÖWE and with the decision for BARBAROSSA. The idea that "continuing preparations" will make a difference when the development actually continued is magical thinking.
MFP and Siebel production was deprioritized with the decision for Barbarossa. The hypothesis is the opposite, that instead of getting put on the back burner, they get the highest industrial prioritization, with the intention of having over 1,000 in service by July 1941.
So now you're pinning your hopes on crossing the Channel in hundreds if not thousands of "30 to 40 ton craft"? God speed the poor sods that have to make that crossing and then are expected to assault a defended beach.
The proposal was 1,050 Siebels and MFP's and an unspecified number of smaller craft in the 30-50 ton range. You went off on a tangent about 75hp engines in MFP's, but you missed the fact that the build program is also smaller craft in which this HP range would be suitable. And, in terms of crossing the Channel, I'd bet that by 1942 a couple million Germans on the Eastern Front would have happily taken that gig instead of the one they were in.
What kind of lunatic orders 800 vessels of a design that does not yet exist and has not been tested?
Channel conditions in the fall and improved British defenses would require an invasion to start not later than July 1941. So the lunatic that would order 800 vessels prior to design would be someone that understands a schedule.
BTW, you do realize you are attributing production levels the U.S. was unable to achieve in building LCT to the German production of MFP in this scenario?
The United States was a bit busy also building 30 or 40 million tons of shipping, thousands of warships, hundreds of thousands of aircraft and tanks, and literally mountains of other equipment at the time.

You really need to dig a bit further into the Jumo 205 development, production and use. About 900 were built before the war, they were tested in naval use, and they performed miserably, even though they were maritime redesigns designated the Jumo 205M. Postwar, the East Germans also tried to use former aircraft Jumo 205 C/D engines in coast guard craft, also with terrible results. They simply weren't reliable in a marine application, or, to put it another way, not all diesel engine are suitable diesel engines for marine applications.
As with the conversion of truck engines, you have a tendency to exaggerate your case for dramatic effect. In fact, the 205's were used in marine applications into the 1960's. The main problem will, I think, have been related to the underlined quote below, the constant running at at their maximum power setting. The 205 was rated at just over 600HP, and was very reliable at what they call a cruise setting, so maybe around 450hp or so.

http://hugojunkers.bplaced.net/junkers- ... richshafen.

A second application for the Jumo 205 were naval utilizations. Between 1940 and 1944 several small attack boats for costal operations were built for the German Navy. By the specifications of these boats a Daimler-Benz MB507 engine was requested. These boats were built by Dornier Friedrichshafen. As Dornier had gained good experiences about the Jumo 205 in their aircraft, a proposal was made to equip a few boats with a maritime version of the Jumo 205. Four out of the total number of 12 boats (LS1, LS2, LS5, LS6) were finally equipped with the Jumo 205M engines. LS1 and LS2 were quickly withdrawn from operational tasks due to engine problems. LS5 was used as a patrol boat on Lake Constance for two years and was finally lost by an air attack in 1943, while LS6 was the only Jumo driven attack boat, which was used in operational missions in the Agean Sea, where it also was lost after two years of operation in 1943.

The use of the Jumo 205 in military aircraft, like the Ju86 failed, as these aircraft were used at their power limits, which result in a lot of engine failures.

The maritime utilization of Jumo 205 engines continued after WWII in the East German Navy. In March 1949 the Soviet Military Administration in Germany (SMAD) advised the setup of the socalled "Kasernierte Volkspolizei". A division of this inital military unit in East Germany was the coast guard, which got 26 boats of the "26 Meters Seekutter"-Klasse between March 1950 and April 1952. These coast guard boats were equipped with three Jumo 205C/D engines. Even if the use of C/D flying engines caused a lot of trouble, these KS-boats remained in service up to the 60s.[/i]

So we've gone to the "Germany allies for REAL with the Soviet Union" hand wave. :roll:
As expected, you have no coherent reasons why the Axis cannot look to import war material from the Soviet Union.
Last edited by glenn239 on 15 Feb 2024 03:50, edited 1 time in total.

glenn239
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by glenn239 » 15 Feb 2024 02:37

ljadw wrote:
12 Feb 2024 06:55
The attacks on Yugoslavia and Greece had nothing to do with Barbarossa :they were caused by the Italian failure in Greece which resulted in a British intervention on the European continent .
Answered above for Richard.
220 (sic, 20) divisions in Spain is wrong :
if Franco said yes to Felix,Germany would not need 20 divisions to eliminate Gibraltar
in the HTL Franco said no ( and there is no proof why he should say yes in the ATL, only your conviction, but that is not a proof ),which means that not 20 but 40 divisions would be needed for the conquest of Spain and that they would have to remain in Spain as occupation forces ,this would make Sea Lion impossible .
I doubt Franco goes to war if the Germans move into Spain going for Gibraltar. He will continue to walk the line between camps, meaning he will not offer direct resistance and he will not offer cooperation either. The 'conquest' of Spain by the Axis sure as hell is not required, just the establishment of the conditions to allow the Italians to move large elements of their navy to France.
.....
Insufficient army forces for Sea Lion
Thus : no Sea Lion
You exaggerated everything to come up with a total of 195 German division required to reach this conclusion, but I think they're well stocked for divisions with 120.

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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by glenn239 » 15 Feb 2024 02:51

Gooner1 wrote:
12 Feb 2024 11:52
So invade Spain AND Sweden, demobilise much of your army and leave the 2,000 kilometre border with the military juggernaut of the Soviet Union basically unguarded.
When the decision for war was made in Berlin about August 1939, it was not anticipated that France would collapse in a heap in one month starting in May 1940. It was assumed that the war could take quite some time, and therefore, that the need to keep the eastern frontier basically unguarded might stretch for some years. It was also assumed that the Soviets would not attack Germany from behind as they were engaged in France for what could be a war lasting several years. The assumption was that, through political compromises and dealings, the Soviet Union could be trusted to cooperate, so that even if the war with France lasted years, there would not be a second front. The 1941 Sealion hypothesis simply carries on with these pre-existing strategic assumptions.
Last edited by glenn239 on 15 Feb 2024 03:55, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by glenn239 » 15 Feb 2024 03:44

Peter89 wrote:
12 Feb 2024 08:24
How did you arrive at these numbers?
A hundred MFP's a month is 24,000 tons of shipping, requiring maybe something like 60,000 man hours each for basic construction. This doesn't seem impossible, and if you're saying otherwise, I think that's because you don't like the implications. Which is, that if the Axis had doubled down for Sealion in 1941, the situation in July 1941 would have not been a sure thing for either side, not by a long shot, but it would have been the most perilous moment for the British in the war, no question.
Besides, you seem to ignore that Britain outproduced Germany in everything that mattered. This is not a German failure or a British brilliance; in fact, this is the reason why Britain wasn't occupied in modern times. If someone wants to dominate Europe, he needs a land army, but if he succeeds, he needs a navy to invade Britain. That was true up until WW2 when the air force came into play but A.) the Germans always neglected the naval air arm, B.) the British outproduced the Germans. Thus in the end it changed nothing. You can't ignore the strategic picture and say Germany could outproduce Britain in naval production in one year. No, it couldn't.
At least we're no longer having long discussions as to why the command and control failures on the British side evident during the Channel Dash were British command and control issues that had nothing to do with whether the enemy force was moving at 25kt or 8kt.

No one is talking about the Germans outbuilding the British in warships, or any other such inventions. We're talking the concentration of existing forces, the construction of landing craft, and the intensification of all the elements of the original plan to make Sealion look less like a 2 month slap dash and more like a complete plan. Lets go over the big picture of what I think was possible again -

- The invasion force is the same 2,400 barges of the original Sealion, but now all are to be motorized. In addition, there are to be 800 MFP's and 250 Siebel ferries, plus some number of other purpose built craft in the 30-50 ton range. Not sure on what the size of the landing force might be, maybe about 180,000. The purpose built amphib transport allows for the first follow-up wave to this much more quickly, (the MFP force alone should be capable of landing 80,000 troops).
- The warship forces are the bulk of the KM, (the KM is much stronger than in 1940) plus a strong contingent from Italy ranging from minesweepers to battleships, plus European countries such as Sweden being forced to send naval contingents, plus auxiliary gunboats ranging down to R boats in large numbers. The 250 Siebel ferries, for example are all configured for gunfire and AA support.
- The submarine force covering the invasion is the bulk of the German submarine fleet, plus maybe something about 50 Italian boats.
- The mining plan is scaled up from the 1940 plan. Minelaying and minesweeping forces are much stronger, and the number of mines for the invasion are enhanced considerably , including Italian, French, Soviet and Swedish supply, as well as new German production. The intention would be to build and field new mine designs specifically intended for use only during Sealion. The upscaled resources in the mining campaign would allow for both sides of the Channel to be sealed off, and the RN would not be able to operate effectively enough in the Channel due to its littoral characteristics - in part due to mining, in part due to submarines, in part due to air attacks.
- The German aerial campaign in preparation for Sealion goes from October 1940 to July 1941. The night time bombing campaign runs from October 1940 to July 1941 and these raids concentrate on incapacitating RN logistics. (No nonsense with inland city raids, the focus is to degrade the RN's capacity to operate in the Channel). From May 1941 the daytime raids commence, focused on the south and eastern coasts, all within ME-109F escort range, and again concentrating on RN logistics and softening up ground defenses. The aerial mining campaign starts some number of days before the invasion. When the invasion occurs, the LW has been well trained and indoctrinated over the past year to take on RN task forces.

Where in any of that is anything about the Germans 'outbuilding' the British in warships?

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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by Richard Anderson » 15 Feb 2024 04:25

glenn239 wrote:
15 Feb 2024 01:32
Yes. Hitler forced Yugoslavia to join the Tripartite Pact in March 1941, which caused the coup in the army that triggered the German invasion. Hitler did this because of pending Barbarossa. No Barbarossa, no coup. The Germans would, of course, need to shore up their Italian allies in their abortive war in Greece, but this could be done via Albania, seeking a return to the status quo ante prior to the Italian assault.
Fascinating. So Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serb and Croat animosity, Hitler's animosity to Serbs/Slavs, and British SOE activity had nothing to do with it, It was just because Hitler forced Yugoslavia into the Tripartite Pact so that he could invade the Soviet Union. :roll:
I think the Germans look to have required about 120 divisions, maximum, to execute a Sealion strategy.
So you keep saying, but that doesn't answer my question. Par for the course with you.
Spain would have to allow the neutralization and the transfer of elements of the Italian fleet into the Atlantic, while Sweden would need to have all ball bearing industry closely supervised and provide naval elements for Sealion. The chances either would result in actual invasions I think would be small.
Why would Spain, i.e., Franco, "have to allow" anything in your fantasy world, when he did not do so in the real world? Why would Sweden, "have to allow" anything in your fantasy world, when it did not do so in the real world? I'm afraid your immersion in your fantasy world has taken away your ability to reason in the real world.
Richard C. Anderson Jr.

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ljadw
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Re: What if Germany invades the Isle of Wight?

Post by ljadw » 15 Feb 2024 07:23

glenn239 wrote:
15 Feb 2024 01:32
Richard Anderson wrote:
11 Feb 2024 21:18
So you think that the "Yugosalvian crisis" was dependent on BARBAROSSA?
Yes. Hitler forced Yugoslavia to join the Tripartite Pact in March 1941, which caused the coup in the army that triggered the German invasion. Hitler did this because of pending Barbarossa. No Barbarossa, no coup. The Germans would, of course, need to shore up their Italian allies in their abortive war in Greece, but this could be done via Albania, seeking a return to the status quo ante prior to the Italian assault.
So the Ostheer of the French Campaign gets disbanded too? Neat.
I think the Germans look to have required about 120 divisions, maximum, to execute a Sealion strategy.
So your UBERSEELÖWE now includes invasions of Norway (sic, Sweden) and Spain? Neat.
Spain would have to allow the neutralization and the transfer of elements of the Italian fleet into the Atlantic, while Sweden would need to have all ball bearing industry closely supervised and provide naval elements for Sealion. The chances either would result in actual invasions I think would be small.
1 How could the Germans send an army to Albania ?
2 Italy would refuse categorically a return to the ante prior status quo .
3 A German army in Albania means less forces available for Sea Lion
4 AND THE BRITISH ??? Do you think that they would leave Greece ?
5 120 divisions is much too low : in August 1940 ,without Barbarossa, Hitler demanded an army of 180 !! divisions .
6 First you said that Germany needed to invade and occupy Sweden , now you withdraw and say that Germany needed only the Swedish ball bearing industry
7 The transfer of elements ( again a withdrawal :first you said the Italian fleet ) of the Regia Marina was not the business of Spain ,besides :Spain could not prevent this transfer ,the only who could do it were the British .
The aim of Felix was not to make possible the transfer of elements of the Regia Marina to the Atlantic .
8 Besides : the transfer of these elements to the Atlantic would not help Sea Lion as Sea Lion would not happen in the Atlantic ,but in the Channel : the German invasion force would not go to Liverpool .
9 Now you are saying that the Swedish fleet would have to join the Italian fleet in Sea Lion :roll: And if Sweden refused ?

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