Peter89 wrote: ↑
12 Feb 2024 08:24
How did you arrive at these numbers?
A hundred MFP's a month is 24,000 tons of shipping, requiring maybe something like 60,000 man hours each for basic construction. This doesn't seem impossible, and if you're saying otherwise, I think that's because you don't like the implications. Which is, that if the Axis had doubled down for Sealion in 1941, the situation in July 1941 would have not been a sure thing for either side, not by a long shot, but it would have been the most perilous moment for the British in the war, no question.
Besides, you seem to ignore that Britain outproduced Germany in everything that mattered. This is not a German failure or a British brilliance; in fact, this is the reason why Britain wasn't occupied in modern times. If someone wants to dominate Europe, he needs a land army, but if he succeeds, he needs a navy to invade Britain. That was true up until WW2 when the air force came into play but A.) the Germans always neglected the naval air arm, B.) the British outproduced the Germans. Thus in the end it changed nothing. You can't ignore the strategic picture and say Germany could outproduce Britain in naval production in one year. No, it couldn't.
At least we're no longer having long discussions as to why the command and control failures on the British side evident during the Channel Dash were British command and control issues that had nothing to do with whether the enemy force was moving at 25kt or 8kt.
No one is talking about the Germans outbuilding the British in warships, or any other such inventions. We're talking the concentration of existing forces, the construction of landing craft, and the intensification of all the elements of the original plan to make Sealion look less like a 2 month slap dash and more like a complete plan. Lets go over the big picture of what I think was possible again -
- The invasion force is the same 2,400 barges of the original Sealion, but now all are to be motorized. In addition, there are to be 800 MFP's and 250 Siebel ferries, plus some number of other purpose built craft in the 30-50 ton range. Not sure on what the size of the landing force might be, maybe about 180,000. The purpose built amphib transport allows for the first follow-up wave to this much more quickly, (the MFP force alone should be capable of landing 80,000 troops).
- The warship forces are the bulk of the KM, (the KM is much stronger than in 1940) plus a strong contingent from Italy ranging from minesweepers to battleships, plus European countries such as Sweden being forced to send naval contingents, plus auxiliary gunboats ranging down to R boats in large numbers. The 250 Siebel ferries, for example are all configured for gunfire and AA support.
- The submarine force covering the invasion is the bulk of the German submarine fleet, plus maybe something about 50 Italian boats.
- The mining plan is scaled up from the 1940 plan. Minelaying and minesweeping forces are much stronger, and the number of mines for the invasion are enhanced considerably , including Italian, French, Soviet and Swedish supply, as well as new German production. The intention would be to build and field new mine designs specifically intended for use only during Sealion. The upscaled resources in the mining campaign would allow for both sides of the Channel to be sealed off, and the RN would not be able to operate effectively enough in the Channel due to its littoral characteristics - in part due to mining, in part due to submarines, in part due to air attacks.
- The German aerial campaign in preparation for Sealion goes from October 1940 to July 1941. The night time bombing campaign runs from October 1940 to July 1941 and these raids concentrate on incapacitating RN logistics. (No nonsense with inland city raids, the focus is to degrade the RN's capacity to operate in the Channel). From May 1941 the daytime raids commence, focused on the south and eastern coasts, all within ME-109F escort range, and again concentrating on RN logistics and softening up ground defenses. The aerial mining campaign starts some number of days before the invasion. When the invasion occurs, the LW has been well trained and indoctrinated over the past year to take on RN task forces.
Where in any of that is anything about the Germans 'outbuilding' the British in warships?