kalpazanin wrote:...
If given priority in the 84 days of Sealion ...
Ok when do you invision the planning for this to have started? Since you mention implimentation starting in July add 84 days to this and it looks like you are proposing an invasion in September. Is this correct?
The sealion invasion had 84 days for preparation.
Since we are talking about building a simple concrete structures and rude airstripes - low qualification work, it's not like taking resources and workforce from the tank or plane or ship building.
Given the amount of POW's available to the Germans such work in given timeframe, seems completely realistic to me.
Concrete doen'st grow on trees you have to get it and move it to where you want it. For transports planes you need more than rude airstrips. Indeed for an effort of this size you also need workshops and storage facilities or you very shortly won't have anything flying. You are suggesting a rather monumental effort here and using human labor as your main means of earth moving.
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The dropping of the supply cylinder is not very different in it's physics from dropping of torpedo by torpedo bomber.
Torpedoes filling consisted of explosives and fuel as well as delicate mechanical parts, which as factual events show were not affected by the drop. (otherwise they wouldn't have worked)
The only difference in proposed idea would be that the cylinder would be dropped with slight angle to the horizon (~15 degrees) so when it hits the water it's horizontal kynetic energy will be partially transformed to lift, which will slow it's sinking speed until it's horizontal speed is neutralized.
Even if the cylinder ruptures for some reason, the supplies would not be damaged much by little water - otherwise no military operations could be possible during rainy days...
The only possible problem is if the pilot is such a complete idiot, that he drops it on the very beach - well, even then some of the cargo could be salvaged (food or bullets for instance)
My overall expectations are that after gaining some initial experience 95% of the said supplies could be retrieved during low tide.
95% are you serious? I suspect that you wouldn't get that high a percentage if you were shipping it by truck. OK torpedos didn't work if they landed from to high up or to high a speed. How are you going to drop them at 15 degrees by the way? If dropped from low level they will hit at a much flatter trajectory a higher level and they will be falling straight down. The pilot has to aim at an ivisible strip of water. Too shallow and it will impact the beach or shore. Small arms ammo might be ok but you are likely to loose fuel and arty ammor and spare parts may well be contaminated with sand and water. If they are too far out almost none of them will end up on the beach you want them to. If you hit the strip of water you are aiming for of those that float maybe half will float ashore many of those that don't float won't be easily recoverable. Then there is the problem of getting them to the people that need them. OK for 8mm but spare parts or even some arty ammo.
Haha
So the RAF would have to do several large sweeps with fighters over the channel??
That alone would lead to RAF forces being decimated - remember that the RAF won BoB only by rebasing it's fighters further inland and carefully preparing interceptions as close to it's bases as possible.
The moment you force them to start such bold patrols it's like you've given up their only acceptable strategy.
By the time you want to launch the invasion the RAF has won the BOB. It's position relative to the LW has been improving consistently (check the BOB thread). Further more large fighter sweeps lets them gain numerical superiority over the LW who can only comit a fraction of their force at any one time. These sweeps can be in the vacinity of the beacheads which will lower the recover rate of British pilots a bit but won't improve that of the Germans much. I see this as a signigicant improvement is strategic posture for the British.
...Thinking 'something is up' and knowing exactly what is 'up' are veeery different things.
Look at operation Cerberus for instance - the british though 'something is up', but that just didn't cut it..
But this is taking place in an area from which they can get intelligence much more readily and since it concerns the survival of Britain they are going to have more assets devoted to it. The barges were certainly one indicator but so were the transports, the army positions, the BOB, where the KM was and what it was doing, etc. You've thrown out one red herring. They might think the invasion was still on or that it was aimed at Ireland or some of the smaller British Isles. Their still going to be wathcing like hawks and prepaired to pounce.
English subs were inferior to the u-boats and took quite a beating during the norwegian campain.
British could in no way could have used them for prolonged blockade - they would just be sunk one by one in the first week and then brits would call the rest off.
In some ways. But if they are being used for observation off the coast a bit I don't see them even being detected much less sunk. When German ships start flushing from the French harbors they call home and then attack or maybe guide in British bombers first.
As I posted previously the equipment would be loaded to the ships, but the troops themselves would board at the last moment. If executed with planned precision this could take no more than a couple of hours.
In the month previous to the actual invasion the germans could do several such massive drills with the barges instead of the ships in order to create an illusion of 'bluffing' in the english side.
It's going to take more than a couple of hours to move them from their bases to the port. The drills you mention above might take some of the edge off the warning but it still going to raise alertness flags.
LWD wrote:
So you have small groups either unescored or with 1 KM warship sailing? Even an MTB or two will likely cause problems in that case.
While the MTB boats would be a threat to the barges, the Merchants armed with several big guns and AA on deck would be capable of fending off such attacks.
The probability of a jury rigged Merchant hitting an MTB traveling at attack speed are almost nil. Especially at night. Note how many US TP boats were lost at Surigao and that was against warships.
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You seem to contradict yourself - if the LW is unable to see the british ships then how are the british bombers seeing german ships??
Likewise the opposite. You cannot claim that by some magic only RAF pilots see and LW are blind..
I believe at this point in time at least some of the RN pilots were trained at night attacks vs ships. On the otherhand the bombers don't have to hit the transports to disrupt their formations, cost them time, throw them off course, etc.
LWD wrote:
But it's at night remember? and they are also intercepting the RN. They may get some mines where they will cause problems but they also may end up mining the invasion beaches as well. Night bombing (minng is just another form of bombing) was not very accurate at this point in time.
The mining from planes is just dropping the mines in the approximate area - they don't need to hit targets with precision.
As to the mining of the invasion beaches - you take the LW bomber pilots for a complete idiots...
You seam to think that night time navigation during WWII was much more advanced than it was. A minor cross wind and you can be off miles and there is little to tell you that. The invasion beaches ae also close to the ports. If not how are the largly leg mobile infantry going to capture them quickly? Since the British had defencive mine fields off most of the ports all they have to do is sweep the clear channel. Of course if they think the port might actually fall they may just add a few mines of their own.
LWD wrote:t;]
Probably not. Even without zig zaging there will be currents and winds that will cut your effective speed. The if a RN ship gets close or the ships are subject to a bombing attack there will be additional time due to maneuvering and confusion.
Before the RN starts intercepting the invasion fleet it will have to :
a) Find it.
Finding it will be little problem. There are both ships and planes patroling the area on a routine bases. When word gets out that something is up patrols will likely be increased.
b) Group it's available forces in the imediate area of the channel.
The patroling ships can do significant damage especially since they will be encountering mostly merchant ships with an occasional KM vessel escorting. When the word gets out that it is mostly small groups everything at sea will likely be ordered to attack at will.
c) Clear the ports of mines so warships not on patrol can embark.
In some cases in others the ports won't be mined before the word gets there or the act of mining them combined with the alert situation will mean the clearing gets a head start. In critical cases extrodinary measures can be taken such as sending an empty tanker or cargo ship up the channel followed closely by the warships.
d) Intercept the fleet.
Certainly the whole RN won't reach the invasion fleet before some of it reaches the beaches. But then it is much easier to intercept, no? And it's going to take time to get the supplies and vehicles off even if the troops get ashore quickly. If you have a force package in each ship that means there is a substantial amount of artillery ammo on board which makes things real interseting when you start takeing large caliber HE rounds.
Finding it will be little problem. There are both ships and planes patroling the area on a routine bases. When word gets out that something is up patrols will likely be increased.
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Even when they intercept, they will not be in full force and the KM+LW will be able to deal with it.
At this point in time the KM had no hope at all of standing up to even a portion of the home fleet. The LW also had not proved to be all that successful at attacking warships under power and able to defend themselves.
LWD wrote:
The topology of the British beaches may well not be known. Even if it is know it can change rather quickly (one major storm can do it). ...
The germans were constantly photographing the english coastal areas from the air.
Since during low spring tides all the beaches are uncovered from water, the knowledge can be quite precise.
You are talking about beach lines. I'm talking about from the low water mark to deep water. This can be a critical element. It was the cause of a lot of problems at Tarawa. The unexpected hydrology at Omaha also caused a lot of problems and the allies had been studing them for months.
The flooding of the ship is no problem - it allready sits firmly on the ground so it can't sink.
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Absolutely nothing. The ship will get floaded with water up to the waterline. Since it will lay on the bottom it's keel will be in full contact with the ground all the time.
All the supplies, which are water sensitive will be on the upper deck. The rest probably wouldn't be damaged by 6 hours in the water.
How do you know ground will be level where the ship beaches. In general it's not in some cases it can be quite a slope. If there is a bar you may end up with the stern and bow supported and the midship not which can lead to a broken spine. Oh and getting supplies out of a dark, flooded, cold ship is not going to be fast or fun. And as for supplies that might not be damaged by water you are looking at small arms ammo and tinned food. The Germans might have a use for the former rather quicly. Also forget the 6 hours. The Germans are not going be able to clear the ship that fast. The original plan called for taking 3 days to offload. Some things in this plan may speed it up but others won't.
LWD wrote:The Home Fleet wouldn't have to enter the ports so the mining isn't going to slow them at all. ....
Not enter, but exit. Only part of the fleet was on constant patrols - the rest was in ports.
But the home fleet is at Scapa. How are they going to mine it?
As to the purely marine combat look at the numbers:
RN (english channel immediate fleet) :3 Light cruisers 17 destroyers + MTB boats
KM 10 destroyers + 25 u-boats + 18 s-boats
Considering the Norway campain, the quality of the german naval forces was as good as the British.
Providing the support of LW in the chanel I wonder if they may even win the first battle...
If the KM is to have a chance vs the CL's they'll have to mass their DDs leaving many of the transports unprotected. If they find small groups of British DDs they may win but you are looking at 3 to 1 in tonnage with more British ships entering the fray all the time. Also consider that if the British find the transports the KM has to be very careful about where they launch torpedos. The transports are also likely to turn away from any British warships encountered at the very least this messes up the time table.
LWD wrote:
Are you talking about tanks and field guns duelling DDs? ...
I'm talking of 100 mm and 155 mm caliber guns as well as 88 mm caliber guns shooting from merchan't decks
In case of the Kormoran those sunk a light cruiser!
The Kormaran wasn't exactly a standard merchant either was she? Standard merchants don't have much in the way of fire control or decks reinforced to fire from. In this case the CLs aren't likely to slow down or stop and engage in a friendly conversation either.
LWD wrote:
By the way have you even looked at the time lines for this. Looks to me like you have proposed enough modifications and constrution so that this invasion couldn't happen until after September at best. If that's the case it's clearly a no go.
The start should be sometimes in middle of september. That should be sufficient for all the improvisations.
When did the planning start?