Help from Japan

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
User avatar
davethelight
Member
Posts: 1691
Joined: 21 Dec 2002 07:52
Location: Australia

Help from Japan

Post by davethelight » 26 Dec 2002 05:46

Hi everyone, I'm new to this, but it looks like fun and I'm always keen for a good debate, especially when it comes to WWII.

So here's a hypothetical scenario which may interest some of you. What would have happened if, say, Germany had been able to organise real coordination and cooperation with Japan, so that when Barborossa began in June 1941, the Japanese also attacked the Soviets in the east, just as Stalin feared. What would have happened at Moscow that winter with the 700 000 Manchurian based troops still deployed fighting the Japanese.
Zhukov would not have had this massive and formidable force to throw at the Germans, so I beleive Moscow would probably have fallen, and from there, who knows what.

I beleive it woud have been a real possibility that the Soviet Union would then have been forced to sue for peace or face complete collapse.
With the Soviet Union eliminated as an opponent, Germany would eventually have been able to force the British to come to some kind of agreement with Germany, or for Germany to even have been able to invade the UK, as it could have done so pretty much at its leisure.

The only country which could then have stood up to the Axis would have been the United States, but I beleive that with Europe and half of Asia under the control of the Axis, the United States would have decided to come to terms with Japan rather than face a war of indefinete duration and incalculable cost with the combined might of Germany and Japan.

I reckon that the world today would pretty much be divided along those lines. China would pretty much have been beaten into submission and be annexed by Japan along with the whole of South East Asia, and most of Africa would be allied to Germany and Europe. South Ameriaca would be a half and half of pro fascist or pro democracy countrys, and the only other places which would fall outside of Axis influence would probably be Australia, New Zealand, Canada and maybee Mexico.

The world would be in a never ending cold war, especially once both sides had the bomb.

Just pure fancy I know, and quite wild speculation at the minimum, but food for thought none the less.

User avatar
Gott
Member
Posts: 1162
Joined: 10 Jul 2002 21:49
Location: Asia

Post by Gott » 26 Dec 2002 19:21

It is not easy, the Japanese was scared that the Chinese counter-attacked and regain Chinese coastal areas. The Kwantung Army was there for a purpose, to defend their occupied-parts of China. Besides, the Japanese soldiers would froze to death up in Siberia...

But I would say Japan betrayed Hitler as he declared war on US when Tokyo bombed Pearl Harbor. It was an act of solidarity, yet Japan never had this "act of solidarity" to help the Germans in Barbarossa...

User avatar
Sam H.
Member
Posts: 1975
Joined: 19 Sep 2002 21:21
Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Post by Sam H. » 27 Dec 2002 00:56

Short term, the lose of those Siberian troops would have greatly affected the Russian counter attacks of December 1941. Perhaps, with the correct leadership on the German side, Moscow can even be taken. If Moscow fall, Russia may be out of the war.

Long Term - the Russians lose a large and major route of Lend-Lease materials. Nearly half of the supplies sent to Russia are via the Pacific (Vladivostok) route. This would have a major affect on the war with Germany. Plus, the prospect of a war in Siberia hurts the Russian efforts against Germany.

Either way, Germany makes out great. The problem is, what happens to Japan? Without the December attack on Pearl and the blitz on the Pacific, Japan is in serious trouble. It needs the oil and riches of the Dutch East Indes, etc., to survive. And Japanese troops are not equiped to fight in Siberia. Japan has no heavy tanks and no way to fight an army that does.

User avatar
davethelight
Member
Posts: 1691
Joined: 21 Dec 2002 07:52
Location: Australia

Post by davethelight » 27 Dec 2002 04:01

Japan would only need to be a diversion from the west so as to tie down the Manchurian troops. It would not need to go into Siberia, just keep the Soviet forces divided long enough for the Germans to succeed in the west.
I reckon the Japanese airforce could have done a good job of wiping out alot of the Soviet heavy equipment on the ground too, since they demonstrated their ability to achieve air superiority over the Soviets in the Nomonhan incident in 1939.

So I think that, with the Soviet Union defeated, Japan could then redeploy its land forces to wherever else they were needed, ie China or somewhere else. Britain would eventually be subdued, so China would have virtually no help from the outside world, eventually they would be subdued too. Japan could still attack Pearl Harbor and wage a long war with the Americans because now the Germans would be able to "Lend Lease" them a whole lot of resouces, especially oil from the Middle East and the Caucasus, not to mention tanks and other weapons technology.

I think that, providing Germany started to properly mobilise its economy for war, they could have virtually done most of the necessary manufacturing for the Japanase to wage war against America, being out of range from attack by any American forces. They could simply frieght all the necessary supplies across to Japan via the Trans Siberian Railway. Japan might cop a bit of a beating there for a while from American forcesd in the Pacific, but once Germany sent a few air wings to help out in defending Japan, plus a few hundred u boats to defend the waters of Japan's Inner Defensive Ring, I think the stuation would eventually turn into a stalemate.

I hope I'm not letting my imigination run away too much here.

User avatar
Gott
Member
Posts: 1162
Joined: 10 Jul 2002 21:49
Location: Asia

Post by Gott » 27 Dec 2002 13:22

China would have virtually no help from the outside world, eventually they would be subdued too.
I'm not so sure about this one, Chinese defenses became stronger and stronger throughout the war. It took the Japanese three major offensive to capture Changsha, over the period from 1937-1945, it cost a lot of lives from both sides. Experienced Japanese soldiers pulled out from China and went out to fight the Americans in the Pacific islands, leaving new conscripts to occupy China. Discipline was a serious problem. They spent their whole day looting and raping. These Japanese soldiers lacked discipline and experience. If Chiang decided to mount a counter-offensive, casualties from both sides would be high, but the Nationalists would eventually gain ground because of their amount of personnel, and besides, China had plenty of reserves, even more than the Russians...

User avatar
davethelight
Member
Posts: 1691
Joined: 21 Dec 2002 07:52
Location: Australia

Post by davethelight » 27 Dec 2002 15:49

OK, the Germans helped the Japanese with the Chinese too, lots of materials and weaponry, air support and maybee ground troops in certain key locations. I reckon China would have to eventually seek some kind of peacuful resolution to the situation, and not without having to make some major territorial concessions.

User avatar
Sam H.
Member
Posts: 1975
Joined: 19 Sep 2002 21:21
Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Post by Sam H. » 27 Dec 2002 15:57

Sorry, I can't imagine any scenario in which Germany is transporting war materials to Japan via Russia. Besides, what Japan needs is ships - German does not produce ships in great quantitiy.

Its a far trip, Russia will never be fully occupied, at most, you knock Stalin out of power and hope to make peace with a new government.

Its even hard for Japan and Germany to make contact via the Middle East and India, its still a long road for supplies to travel, even in total victory.

No, Japan will have to fend for itself no matter how great the victory is over Russia.

Though with Russia defeated, Britian is in peril and US attention is diverted from the Pacific. This aids Japan's war effort.

User avatar
davethelight
Member
Posts: 1691
Joined: 21 Dec 2002 07:52
Location: Australia

Post by davethelight » 27 Dec 2002 16:18

Well, maybee I was getting a bit carried away there, but I don't think my scenario is completely out of the question!

User avatar
Blue max
Member
Posts: 351
Joined: 19 Oct 2002 07:02
Location: Buffalo NY

A Rumor From Stalingrad

Post by Blue max » 31 Dec 2002 08:14

I heard that in late 1942 a message was recieved in the Japanese Counselate in Madrid Spain from the Japanese High Command. It was a request for the estimated time of the fall of Stalingrad, which was needed so that they could coordinate the moment when they could declare war on Russia! Now I have no idea if it was true, but it highlights an interesting angle to your original question. Especially as it seems that the government in Moscow was tremendously concerned about the fate of Stalingrad, and that it has been said that the loss of this stratiegic city might have lead the the collapse of that government. If Japan had declared war and invaded as Germany prevailed here what a different picture might have resulted. It also shows how close a contest the war really was, we won Thank God, but not by too large a margin.

The Blue Max
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
Andy
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: 04 Aug 2002 18:47
Location: U.S.A

Post by Andy » 31 Dec 2002 08:24

Germany did not really help Japan in China. In fact they had sent Advisers to the Chinese ARmy in the Mid 30s.

User avatar
Gott
Member
Posts: 1162
Joined: 10 Jul 2002 21:49
Location: Asia

Post by Gott » 31 Dec 2002 10:11

Andy wrote:Germany did not really help Japan in China. In fact they had sent Advisers to the Chinese ARmy in the Mid 30s.
that's true, and it was only when japan pressured germany to pull advisers out of china did the germans' aid to china ended. but the communist guerillas had a german adviser up to the end of the war. also, i heard a few stories saying that a few Germans even enlisted into the Chinese army.

the nazi government could not really determine if they should side with china or japan, but in terms of military might, germany had to side with japan. in an economic role, however, german businesses perfer china. german interests (properties) in china did way better during the nationalist rule. japanese soldiers actually looted german houses, banks, and even bank accounts from german military officers in shanghai.

User avatar
peter_suciu
Member
Posts: 199
Joined: 29 Nov 2002 16:49
Location: New York City

Post by peter_suciu » 01 Jan 2003 17:49

The German's sent the advisors to China in the 1920s and 1930s as a way to give their officers some field experience. This was before the Nazis even came to power.

There are plenty of photos of Chinese troops even using German WWI M16/M18 helmets with the Nationalist Star.

China actually made more sense as a German ally than Japan but at the time China was engulfed in a civil war and was decades behind Japan.

User avatar
Gott
Member
Posts: 1162
Joined: 10 Jul 2002 21:49
Location: Asia

Post by Gott » 01 Jan 2003 19:42

peter_suciu wrote:The German's sent the advisors to China in the 1920s and 1930s as a way to give their officers some field experience. This was before the Nazis even came to power.

There are plenty of photos of Chinese troops even using German WWI M16/M18 helmets with the Nationalist Star.

China actually made more sense as a German ally than Japan but at the time China was engulfed in a civil war and was decades behind Japan.
A German military adviser (can't remember his name) actually went to the frontline and command during the battle for Shanghai.

It certainly did made more sense to have China as an ally.

one decade behind, in my opinion...

Return to “What if”