So TIGER was the only exception???As for the rest of your examples, it seems you misunderstood me. 'Closed off' means that the direct route through the Mediterranean was closed off - accepting the Tiger convoy as an exception - to British shipping. Anything bound for the Delta had to go via the cape. As I also wrote upthread, the RN could reinforce Malta, albeit at a cost.
In the first week of April, "Ark Royal" escorted by Force H sailed from Gibraltar and flew off 12 Hurricanes for Malta.
From what position? I.E. which side of the Sicilian Narrows???In the one month of June alone, carrier "Ark Royal" once on her own, at other times accompanied by "Furious" or "Victorious", flew off more than 140 aircraft for Malta
I.E. transited the Sicilian Narrows a SECOND time...After covering the 'Tiger' convoy, "Ark Royal" joined by carrier "Furious", was once again south of Sardinia and flying off a further 48 Hurricanes to Malta on the 21st.
I.E. transited the Sicilian Narrows...On the 23rd, south of Sardinia, sustained Italian air attacks started. Cruiser "Manchester" was hit and destroyer "FEARLESS" sunk by aircraft torpedoes. Next day the transports reached Malta safely
I.E transited the Sicilian Narrows...Early in the month, two cruisers, cruiser-minelayer "Manxman" and two destroyers successfully carried reinforcements and supplies from Gibraltar to Malta.
I.E. transited the Sicilian Narrows...!DECEMBER 13th - Action off Cape Bon, Tunisia - Destroyers “Legion”, “Maori”, “Sikh” and Dutch “lsaac Sweers” under the command of Cdr G. H. Stokes sailed from Gibraltar to join the Mediterranean Fleet at Alexandria
The exceptions to your rule about the CENTRAL Med being closed are stacking up...
Exactly. LOOK at the map; you specifically said the Luftwaffe closed the Central med. Look again at that list of naval actions...and how many of them involved RN vessels operating within range of LW/RA airfields in Sicliy, Libya...I.E. the CENTRAL Med...and Crete. And did that stop them operating?Look at the map. You don't have to sail through the Sicilian narrows to make it Cape Matapan and back if your starting point is Alexandria.
The ENTIRE idea of a German-driven and -supported offensive in North Africa in 1940 presupposes a more closely coordinated Axis strategy than OTL I'm QUITE happy to accept your point that this could not have happened...for then Mussolini's famous refusal of German aid in Africa in mid-1940 stands as the main stumbling block for this WI....This scenario presupposes a much more closely coordinated Axis strategy
This I doubt - for as discussed previously the recent lesson of Norway was that RN vessels required a VERY high sortie rate and level of attack to do ANY damage to them. Or a major defensive failure such at Crete.Yes. But in this scenario, the RM will have the benefit of Luftwaffe air cover. Not that that will mean the guaranteed slaughter of RN ships, but all other things being equal, the Axis will be stronger in this scenario.
Why? Because with a major offensive being launched in the Desert in 1940 strong enough with enough german support to reach the Suez Canal - there will be a much higher rate of traffic along the sea route from Italy to Libya. Given all we know about desert logistics - any effort the British can make against that Sea Bridge will be directly reflected in how fast and how far that spearhead can move.Why would the RN in your view decide to deploy more surface forces to Malta than they historically did?
Better that you accept - if you look at the results of LW attacks on RN shipping off Norway, the sortie rate required to do damage/loss etc...and the Crete scenario required several factors affecting RN destroyer and light cruiser performance to be in place for losses to occur - as discussed before.In your view, and with an eye to the January 1941 OTL over Malta and the May 1941 OTL around Crete, what would the survival prospects be for said force?
...except it's no longer the early-war scenario...which was the major front of the war being in Western Europe somewhere, and everything else being peripheral. In this WI - after the Fall of France - the Germans choose to open a major front in North Africa, supplied via Italy... so the Nile Delta IS being threatened overland while at the same time the RN has an opportunity to influence that land campaign by interdicting Axis supply lines.Early war PM and CID directives pertaining to the Middle East put the safety of the Nile Delta far above the desirability of the continued use of Malta as a base to interfere with Axis shipping.