Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

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Somua2
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Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#1

Post by Somua2 » 08 May 2009, 02:44

Seems pretty implausible now and maybe it was. But the Dutch had a strong well developed Germanic country that could have had longer success as an imperial power and been quite a competitor for Prussia and Austria for German leadership. My European history is not good enough to design a convincing scenario to make it happen. However if it had, I could see the combination of Dutch worldwide commercial strength financing and drawing strength from an even earlier and stronger industrialization of the Ruhr. All this propelling a more Western oriented and far reaching German Empire.

Please try to refine and develop this TL rather than just shooting it down.

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Limburg

#2

Post by Dave Bender » 08 May 2009, 03:08

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Confederation
Limburg was part of the German Confederation until 1867. They opted out when it morphed into the North German Confederation. Limburg could easily have decided to join Deutsches Reich as a member state. Some of the other Dutch states might have chosen Germany over the Netherlands at the same time.

No matter what I think Otto Bismarck will become Chancellor of Deutsches Reich when that nation is created during 1871. He was too outstanding a leader to ignore. But some of the other officials like the foreign secretary could have been from Limburg.


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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#3

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 08 May 2009, 12:15

Somua2 wrote:Please try to refine and develop this TL rather than just shooting it down.
You are asking a lot there :roll:

In 1914 there is no Masstricht appendix a part of nuetral Holland? That eliminates the Liege choke point & allows slightly better starting positions for the the German army in august 1914?

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Refine and develop this TL

#4

Post by Dave Bender » 08 May 2009, 13:18

If the Dutch port of Rotterdam is part of Germany then it changes German naval strategy in the Atlantic.

If the Dutch East Indies belong to Germany then it changes German Pacific strategy as well. They likely won't bother to acquire Tsingtao for use as a naval base in the region. The plentiful supply of oil will likely result in early adoption of oil fired boilers for German naval vessels. Easy access to oil may also cause the Heer may start experimenting with armored fighting vehicles when Günther Burstyn patents his tank design in April 1912.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#5

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 08 May 2009, 21:18

I dont think the dutch ports are going to affect things in the Atlantic at the stratigic level. Certainly there are a lot of tactical nuances in the North Sea. Blockading the Dutch ports to unrestricted merchant traffic was something the British did anyway from 1914. For the combat fleet the extra ports add a bit of tactical flexibility to combat ops in the North Sea.

The implications for events in the Pacific are enourmous. The German Asiatic squadron can be upgraded to a fleeet, and it had a variety of options for ports to operate from. The battle of the Pacific will get interesting. I wonder what the japanese price for participation would be?

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#6

Post by Somua2 » 08 May 2009, 22:34

If the Dutch rose to leadership of a more Liberal Germany in the 1840's or even earlier, would there likely even have been a WWI? Or if they had, might there be a much stronger Naval Germany?

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Random thoughts

#7

Post by Dave Bender » 09 May 2009, 01:07

1913 GDP (measured in millions of 1990 USA dollars)
237,332 Germany
24,955 Netherlands
45,152 East Indies. Interesting that the colony had a larger GDP then the mother country. :)

If Germany includes the Netherlands then the economy will be about 1/3rd larger. This gives Germany a considerably stronger military force.

There will be no general European war as the Franco-Russian military alliance will be afraid to tangle with a Germany that is 1/3rd stronger. Britain will remain on good terms with Germany rather then signing the Entente with France after the death of Queen Victoria.

The Chinese Civil War will end early when Dr. Sun Yat Sen receives German military assistance.

Japan will not interfere in China as they will be afraid to make Germany into an enemy. Instead they will go a second round with Russia when that nation totters into civil war around 1916.

The Ottoman Empire will remain intact for now. They may fall apart down the road from internal rebellion.

Without the economic disruption caused by WWI and the Versallies Treaty there will be no Great Depression.

Historically Kaiser Wilhelm II got very angry when Chinese Christians were slaughtered during the so called Boxer Rebellion. He will be even more angry if the Ottomans start slaughtering Armenian Christians during 1915. Without a general European War this genocide will be prevented. Nor would someone like Stalin be allowed to kill millions of innocent people in Ukraine.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#8

Post by Tim Smith » 09 May 2009, 16:20

Somua2 wrote:If the Dutch rose to leadership of a more Liberal Germany in the 1840's or even earlier, would there likely even have been a WWI? Or if they had, might there be a much stronger Naval Germany?
HOW do the Dutch rise to leadership of a more liberal Germany?

Through a pro-western Dutch kaiser on the throne of a united Germany/Netherlands? Married to a Prussian princess?

Or through the Dutch people leading the German people to an earlier adoption of British-style democractic, constitutional government, greatly reducing the political power of the German monarchy and the German army, and subordinating them to civilian rule?

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#9

Post by Somua2 » 09 May 2009, 19:09

I had visualized a less militaristic unification of Germany into a something more similar to the British model. I'm not sure how much of an opening there really was to do that though.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#10

Post by Dave Bender » 09 May 2009, 20:34

British-style democractic, constitutional government
I don't see that happening. Germany (and the Netherlands for that matter) are not Britain. They have strong state governments.

The historical Federal Constitutional Monarchy of Deutsches Reich will work just fine. They were evolving nicely into a proper democratic government until WWI put a halt to political progress. Give them a few more decades of peace and the Kaiser will have no more power then the King of England.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#11

Post by nuyt » 10 May 2009, 16:22

If the Kingdom of the The Netherlands somehow merged with the German Empire, say between 1890-1910, conflict with Britain might have erupted much earlier than WW1.
First, there would be a global power, threatening mainly British predominance in Africa and the Far East. It controlled East West shipping in the now Imperial/Dutch East Indies.
The Dutch public opinion, like the German one, sympathised with the Boers. A German-British War might have erupted around the Anglo-Boer War, if the Boer Republics had aligned themselves with the German/Dutch Empire before the war.
The Boers might have won with German support from South West Africa. Or the German/Dutch govt could have reinforced South West in time and sent military aid and volunteers to the Boers before the war.
That might even prevent war, with the reslut that the Boer Reps would live on.
Or in case of war it might result in a rapid Boer victory, making their initial gains in real life work out with the capture of Mafeking, Kimberly and Durban.
Then imagine the Boers of the Cape Province rising against their British masters and handing over the Cape to the German/Dutch/Boer bloc, another vital shipping route out of control....check mate!
But the British would strike back soon. They might be able to cling on to Port Elizabeth/East London, with its Brit settlers. With their naval power they would be able to retake Capetown, Durban plus occupy South West Africa and some vital Dutch ports on Sumatra, Java.
End.
Peace would give the Cape back to the British.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#12

Post by Dave Bender » 10 May 2009, 19:54

conflict with Britain might have erupted much earlier than WW1.
Britain will not provoke a war with Germany while Queen Victoria is alive. It was her goal to cement the Anglo-German relationship permanently via family ties. Kaiser Wilhelm II had great respect for her and was proud to be a member of the English royal family.

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nuyt
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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#13

Post by nuyt » 10 May 2009, 21:57

Dave Bender wrote:
conflict with Britain might have erupted much earlier than WW1.
Britain will not provoke a war with Germany while Queen Victoria is alive. It was her goal to cement the Anglo-German relationship permanently via family ties. Kaiser Wilhelm II had great respect for her and was proud to be a member of the English royal family.
So that means no Boer War and the reinforced and Kaiser protected Boers align themselves with the German/Dutch Empire. Then the Boer Republics will grow, receive more settlers from Germany and Holland, dig up their gold in Joburg, grow rich and use Portuguese ports in Mozambique. No Transvaal gold fields for the British. Old Paul Kruger becomes an internationally respected statesman.

Lourenco Marques will get a sizeable Boer/Dutch/German trading community. Influence of the German/Dutch Empire will grow in the Portuguese empire, where public opinion is against the British after the infamous Ultimatum of 1892. Yes, another recruit for the German/Dutch global alliance: the Portuguese Empire. The German, Dutch and Portuguese Empires plus the Boer Republics together form a trading bloc in 1905. From that same year the German Navy can use all Portuguese ports: Lisbon, Acores, Cape Verde, Angola, Mozambique, Goa, Timor (nicely integrated in the Dutch East Indies) and Macau.

They may not have the Cape or Suez, but the Germans seriously challenge British hegemony in Africa and the Far East.

In the Dutch East Indies German investment pours in: ports and naval facilities are extended, oil exploration is booming as is the hunt for iron, coal and rubber. From Sabang naval station on the north-eastern tip of Dutch Sumatra to the most western Pacific island under German control, a huge Asian empire becomes alive. German bankers, businessmen and scientists pour into its capital, Batavia. Krupp buys up the Soerabaja shipyards. On the streets of Java one can hear an interesting mixture of Dutch, German and Jiddisch languages.

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So that means no Boer War

#14

Post by Dave Bender » 10 May 2009, 23:36

Britain is not going to refrain from invading and annexing the Boer Republics just because Deutsches Reich is 1/3rd larger. The USA and European nations including Germany were not happy with the unprovoked British attack. But none of them had a military alliance with the Boers.

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Re: Netherlands as the leader of a united Germany

#15

Post by nuyt » 11 May 2009, 00:00

Hmm, but the core of this scenario is that the Dutch are the leading state within the German confederation. Now dont assume that the Dutch would make the Empire more democratic, liberal and peaceful. On the contrary, I think the Dutch would grab the opportunity to become more agressive and belligerent now they are together with the dozens of millions of Germans. Note the Dutch were in a series of extremely bloody wars of conquest in the Far East at the time: Atjeh, Lombok etc, one by one they were conquering islands and independent nations.
They knew supporting the Boers on their own was useless. But with all the might of the German Army and Navy behind them, they will think they are the God-chosen ones to rule the world.
So they will start arming the Boers and send thousands of troops, volunteers and weaponry. And they will offer protection.

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