Germany might be overreaching if the army marches all the way to Piter. Friction with the general population and a sense of invasion of the heartland would crate problems. Better to destroy the Russian armys in Poland & Lithuania, Carpathia, ect...then attempt negotiation of a seperate peace. Trying for a peace sounds so much better than wrassling with a wounded bear. A peace with Russia in 1915 dodges much of the pain from a British blockadeDave Bender wrote:.... Which may be a moot point if the Gross Ostaufmarsch steam roller drives all the way to St. Petersburg by following the main rail line from Vilna.
German focus on Russia in 1914.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
maltesefalcon wrote:If France is knocked out early ie by fall 1914 per the original game plan, it is likely Russia would sue for peace.
Without other support she would have to fight Austria and Germany for sure and perhaps Turkey in the south.
However knocking out Russia does not necessarily mean France and Britain would seek terms. In fact they did not in 1917 when Russia was out. (I know the situation was different in 1917, but each side had suffered losses)
Your original post supposes the Germans made the decision to focus on Russia first.
I was thinking through German eyes and even in hindsight it makes sense to focus on the west first, for the reasons above.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Not an issue during WWI. Most of the Russian peasants were illiterate and had little concept of national government.Friction with the general population and a sense of invasion of the heartland
Not a German problem. The more Russian armies in Carpathia the easier it will be for the German army to seize Vilna as a jumping off point for the drive to St. Petersburg.destroy the Russian armys in Carpathia
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwe ... states.jpgGermany might be overreaching if the army marches all the way to Piter.
St. Petersburg is only 640 miles from Vilna. A main rail line (i.e. main supply route) connects them.
1914 St. Petersburg is a huge vulnerability as Czar Nicholas II foolishly concentrated most of the Russian munitions production in that city. Furthermore the connecting rail lines enter St. Petersburg from the south. So the German army does not need to actually take the city. Advancing within artillery range of the rail lines will shut down Russian munitions production. Then it's all over but the crying.
Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Dave, with most of the Russian munition production in St.Petersburg, I wonder why the German navy didn't try a raid on that city, ie steam near it and try to level the industrial area. That would've been a real blow for the Russian field armies.
Was it because of mines or was the Russian Baltic fleet that much of a danger?
Was it because of mines or was the Russian Baltic fleet that much of a danger?
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Naval bombardment of St. Petersburg
The eastern Baltic was well protected by mines, shore batteries and torpedo boats. The German Navy cannot bombard the area anymore then the RN can bombard Kiel. Constantinople was lightly protected by comparison. And we know how that shore bombardment attempt worked out.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Hmm. heavy handed German soldiers are likely to PO the peasants, as well as everyone else they come in contact with. While this wont happen over night there are enough many of illiterate peasants with little national conciousness squabbling with forigen armies stumbling through their fields.
A second problem would be supplying a large enough army in he winter of 1914-15 looking at the map I dont see a dense railway network. Assuming the railroads are not destroyed can the Germans advance supplies fast enough? Also what supply capacity do the various Baltic ports have?
In stratigic terms I see the Carpathian front as a German problem. Destruction of those Russian armies relieves pressure the Austrian Empire does not need . More important it follows up the destruction of the Russians northern wing and drives home the point that they are in a hopeless position. Hopefully a rapid elimination of the Russian armies in the west and the threat of the German armyies advancing east would be enough to bring the Czars government to negotiations by late spring 1915. The futherst I'd advance would be into the Baltic states & eastern Poland. That would provide leverage for negotiation and the possibility of detaching those areas from the Russian Empire. Advancing to St Petersberg makes sense only if the Russians refuse to negotiate, and after proper supply is assured. No sense in reproducing Napoleons experince, or anticipating Hitlers mistakes concerning logistics.
A second problem would be supplying a large enough army in he winter of 1914-15 looking at the map I dont see a dense railway network. Assuming the railroads are not destroyed can the Germans advance supplies fast enough? Also what supply capacity do the various Baltic ports have?
In stratigic terms I see the Carpathian front as a German problem. Destruction of those Russian armies relieves pressure the Austrian Empire does not need . More important it follows up the destruction of the Russians northern wing and drives home the point that they are in a hopeless position. Hopefully a rapid elimination of the Russian armies in the west and the threat of the German armyies advancing east would be enough to bring the Czars government to negotiations by late spring 1915. The futherst I'd advance would be into the Baltic states & eastern Poland. That would provide leverage for negotiation and the possibility of detaching those areas from the Russian Empire. Advancing to St Petersberg makes sense only if the Russians refuse to negotiate, and after proper supply is assured. No sense in reproducing Napoleons experince, or anticipating Hitlers mistakes concerning logistics.
Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Wikipedia dixit:
The trouble longterm is that now Germany has revanchisme on both flanks. Brit anti-german maneuvering (support the weak power against the strong) and german post-victory ballooning head is probably bringing the continent to war at about the same amount of time as OTL (1940).
Tsar and tsardom are done for Russia, either way.
So a quick thrust that nets germans Riga will put them in good shape logistically for a strike on StPet. Unless they manage to get to Tallin from the first thump - then it's really gameover for 1914.Riga was annexed by Russia and became an industrialized port city of the Russian empire, where it remained until World War I. By 1900, Riga was the third largest city in Russia after Moscow and St. Petersburg in terms of numbers of industrial workers.
The trouble longterm is that now Germany has revanchisme on both flanks. Brit anti-german maneuvering (support the weak power against the strong) and german post-victory ballooning head is probably bringing the continent to war at about the same amount of time as OTL (1940).
Tsar and tsardom are done for Russia, either way.
Last edited by BDV on 09 Jun 2009, 14:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Relieve Pressure on the Austrian Empire
When the Gross Ostaufmarsch steam roller destroys the 2 Russian armies in Poland that will be the end of Russian attacks on Austria-Hungary. After that Russia will be desperately shifting army corps to the Baltic region.
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Germany has revanchisme on both flanks
Germans were the majority ethnic group in Riga. These people joined Deutsches Reich by choice. The German government has a moral obligation to protect them from invasion by the communist Red Army.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Baltic_Duchy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Baltic_Duchy
As a parallel political movement under the German military administration, Baltic Germans began forming provincial councils between September 1917 and March 1918. On April 12, 1918, a Provincial Assembly composed of 35 Baltic Germans, 13 Estonians and 11 Latvians passed a resolution calling upon the German Emperor to recognize the Baltic provinces as a monarchy and make them a German protectorate.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
I would agree the Germans should destroy the Russians in Poland first then role out into Carpathian and the Baltics along with pincer into White Russia to take Minsk.Carl Schwamberger wrote:Hmm. heavy handed German soldiers are likely to PO the peasants, as well as everyone else they come in contact with. While this wont happen over night there are enough many of illiterate peasants with little national conciousness squabbling with forigen armies stumbling through their fields.
A second problem would be supplying a large enough army in he winter of 1914-15 looking at the map I dont see a dense railway network. Assuming the railroads are not destroyed can the Germans advance supplies fast enough? Also what supply capacity do the various Baltic ports have?
In stratigic terms I see the Carpathian front as a German problem. Destruction of those Russian armies relieves pressure the Austrian Empire does not need . More important it follows up the destruction of the Russians northern wing and drives home the point that they are in a hopeless position. Hopefully a rapid elimination of the Russian armies in the west and the threat of the German armyies advancing east would be enough to bring the Czars government to negotiations by late spring 1915. The futherst I'd advance would be into the Baltic states & eastern Poland. That would provide leverage for negotiation and the possibility of detaching those areas from the Russian Empire. Advancing to St Petersberg makes sense only if the Russians refuse to negotiate, and after proper supply is assured. No sense in reproducing Napoleons experince, or anticipating Hitlers mistakes concerning logistics.
Then from there roll over to cut off St. Petersburg. The Navy can land forces into Finland as part of that Campaign.
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Gross Ostaufmarsch
The Gross Ostaufmarsch plan seizes the rail lines leading to Vilna. There is little reason to do this unless you intend to use the main rail line leading from Vilna to Pskov, then onward to St. Petersburg.
Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Massie’s thesis is noted. I’m interested in your plan. I am asking what your plan is in the following contingency:Check out "Dreadnought and the coming of the great war" and the sections near the end on Germany and England going to war. England was VERY reluctant to go to war.
(1) Most of the German army goes east. (Russia mobilizes deep in her interior in response)
(2) Britain declares war on Germany.
(3) France and Britain invade Belgium about 1 week after the German armies strike out into Poland.
(4) Belgium declares on Germany and mobilizes towards Aachen.
Probably about ½ as successful as the 1915 offensive against Russia. Forget St. Petersburg in 1914.I trying to explore what the 1914 German offensive in the East would look like.
Because Russia retained an army in that vicinity.Dave, with most of the Russian munition production in St.Petersburg, I wonder why the German navy didn't try a raid on that city, ie steam near it and try to level the industrial area.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Britain and France invade Belgium and Belgium responds by declaring war on Germany?!glenn239 wrote:Massie’s thesis is noted. I’m interested in your plan. I am asking what your plan is in the following contingency:Check out "Dreadnought and the coming of the great war" and the sections near the end on Germany and England going to war. England was VERY reluctant to go to war.
(1) Most of the German army goes east. (Russia mobilizes deep in her interior in response)
(2) Britain declares war on Germany.
(3) France and Britain invade Belgium about 1 week after the German armies strike out into Poland.
(4) Belgium declares on Germany and mobilizes towards Aachen.
Probably about ½ as successful as the 1915 offensive against Russia. Forget St. Petersburg in 1914.I trying to explore what the 1914 German offensive in the East would look like.
Because Russia retained an army in that vicinity.Dave, with most of the Russian munition production in St.Petersburg, I wonder why the German navy didn't try a raid on that city, ie steam near it and try to level the industrial area.
On the outside chance Britain declares war on Germany and really goes crazy and invades Belgium, Belgium would then be on Germany's side and the 3 German armies and the Belgium could easily hold the line of Meuse river and
Alsace Lorraine.
Remember the BEF was small in 1914. And France's attacks on Germany were a disaster.
Also, if Britain acts like this no chance America is going to enter the war for England because England is now a war loving aggressor.
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Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
The other point is, the day Britain declares war Germany changes to the Western game plan, the main reason to east first is to not have war with England in 1914.princeliberty10311517 wrote:Britain and France invade Belgium and Belgium responds by declaring war on Germany?!glenn239 wrote:Massie’s thesis is noted. I’m interested in your plan. I am asking what your plan is in the following contingency:Check out "Dreadnought and the coming of the great war" and the sections near the end on Germany and England going to war. England was VERY reluctant to go to war.
(1) Most of the German army goes east. (Russia mobilizes deep in her interior in response)
(2) Britain declares war on Germany.
(3) France and Britain invade Belgium about 1 week after the German armies strike out into Poland.
(4) Belgium declares on Germany and mobilizes towards Aachen.
Probably about ½ as successful as the 1915 offensive against Russia. Forget St. Petersburg in 1914.I trying to explore what the 1914 German offensive in the East would look like.
Because Russia retained an army in that vicinity.Dave, with most of the Russian munition production in St.Petersburg, I wonder why the German navy didn't try a raid on that city, ie steam near it and try to level the industrial area.
On the outside chance Britain declares war on Germany and really goes crazy and invades Belgium, Belgium would then be on Germany's side and the 3 German armies and the Belgium could easily hold the line of Meuse river and
Alsace Lorraine.
Remember the BEF was small in 1914. And France's attacks on Germany were a disaster.
Also, if Britain acts like this no chance America is going to enter the war for England because England is now a war loving aggressor.
So yes if it is Britain, France and Russia at war with Germany, the best idea is to go after France.
But going after France first would not be worth bringing in Britain.
Re: German focus on Russia in 1914.
Why, how and when would Britain join the war on France's side if Germany remained defensive in the west? How would Britain justify joining in on a war against Germany, while the latter has not attacked any neutral country and is 'only' successful in the east? How would the British public opinion develop, how much effort would Britain actually throw into that conflict? Would they send the BEF or 'just' blockade German naval traffic, would it be a close blockade or would the North Sea be left to the Reich while the RN blocked the ways to the Atlantic?