Malta fall 1942

[stg 44]

What if the plans for the Malta invasion went ahead in 1942 and the island fell? Could the war in North Africa been prolonged?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Refresh our memory. What was the proposed date for the this Axis attack on Malta?

[stg 44]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

Set for Mid-July originally. Given this information (below), had they risked it, I think it could have worked


From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_M ... _War_II%29
While the Spitfires were a match for the Axis aircraft, many of the ones delivered in March and April were destroyed on the ground and in the air--where they were outnumbered. For instance, for five days in April there was just one Spitfire available to defend the island; for two days there were none.[13] Also, the overwhelming Axis bombardments had substantially eliminated Malta’s naval and aerial offensive capabilities.[14]
Yet the island appeared to the Axis forces to be neutralised, and they decided that there was no need for further intensive bombing raids. For instance, on 10 May, Albert Kesselring, Commander-in-Chief South of Axis forces, reported to the German High Command that "There is nothing left to bomb."[19] By July, the Axis air offensive had reached its peak, and the attacks were reduced.[20]

The impact of Axis bombing
In the first six months of 1942, there was only one 24-hour period without air raids. Luftwaffe records indicate that between 20 March and 28 April 1942, Malta was subjected to 11,819 sorties and 6,557 tonnes of bombs.

The siege caused significant hardships for everyone on Malta. Bombs killed many and left even more homeless. Businesses and civil infrastructure were destroyed. The disruption of shipping caused food, fuel, and other commodities to be in very short supply. During the greatest times of starvation, it is said that foods were rationed to "three boiled sweets, half a sardine and a spoonful of jam a day". Poor nutrition and sanitation led to the spread of disease. Soldiers rations were also reduced, from four to two thousand calories a day. Malta was starting to starve.[22]

[Dave Bender]

Taking Malta by itself will not help the Afrika Korps much. Germany needs to move significantly more airpower to the Med.

[princeliberty10311517]

The Spring of 42 is getting late for it to help, your probably looking at little prolonging.

The Germans should have sent in their and the Italian paratroopers in the Summer of 1940.

Even they are going to do a Med. focus, the paratroopers and the Italians were available and were not going to really have anything to do in Russia.

They would enable them to cut the short way to Egypt for the British and give them a safe route to supply Libya.

and over the course of 1940 and 1941 this improvement really could have paid off big for Rommel but he came close several times to knocked out the British.

So there is a good chance that would happen if Malta is Axis from the Summer of 1940 on.

But waiting until late spring or early summer 1942 going to limit how much it helps.

[Dave Bender]

Unless Germany choses to adopt a defensive posture on the Russian front. Which isn't going to happen as Russia was the main effort.

[princeliberty10311517]

Unless Germany choses to adopt a defensive posture on the Russian front. Which isn't going to happen as Russia was the main effort.

That would another what if altogether in which Germany goes defensive after the battle of Moscow and tries to take med
and Middle East before America can stop Germany form doing so.

[stg 44]

Regardless, Germany is not going to take Egypt. The logistics are not there. But in the meantime, assuming it goes off in July and is a success, Rommel does not go after El Alemain in July/August. It gives the British time to recover from the beating they just suffered, but also allows Rommel's supply to catch up. Additionally, most of the aircraft now are available for the DAK. British supply didn't go through the Mediterranean, it rounded the cape and moved north along the coast to the middle east. The biggest improvement is the massive losses the Italian merchant marine took after July never happen, as the subs don't have a base astride the Axis supply and aircraft are not based for offensive action or supply interdiction. This changes the later campaigns drastically, as the Axis have a steady source of supply into 1943. Plus, Malta will need to be retaken before Sicily is invaded, as it historically was a major forward base for air support for the invasion. But the Axis have nearby airfields and sub bases to interdict an invasion, though the allies probably will have all of north africa by this time. However, Italy stays in the game longer and it costs the allies more casualties. The East front doesn't have the drain of resources at the height of Kursk and the subsequent offensives. Perhaps the Germans can keep the SS panzer corps in place to continue chewing up Soviet armor formations, which they were achieving at a favorable rate and ratio.

[Dave Bender]

The logistics will work for Germany if the Med become a German lake. Which will happen if Germany moves serious airpower to Sicily and Crete. Conversely, British forces based in Egypt will lose their supply line when German aircraft based on Crete close the Suez Canal and the Port of Alexandria with aerial mines laid at night.

The key is serious German air power in the Med. Malta hardly matters. In fact the island can be left to starve once all British naval vessels and aircraft have been destroyed.

[stg 44]

Axis attempts to interdict the island did not function except for short periods. The Island needs to be taken to prevent it from being a base for the Allied subs and aircraft. The Axis aircraft could not be locked down in constantly suppressing and bombing the island, as they were needed at the front. Limited resources means that decisions need to be made, and leaving Malta alone is not a viable option. The gunshy leadership of the Luftwaffe killed the operation, despite the Italians (who would be the bulk of the forces deployed) being completely for it. Hell, even Student was keen on it, and he would have been landing on the island! All that taking the island means is that logistics are secured without requiring vast aerial resources. These resources are then freed up for the front, which has changed drastically. Though no great conquests are going to result, the end in north africa is prolonged, and the Axis transport force is kept intact. Additionally, the allies are probably going to deal with more casualties in africa and a later invasion of Italy backed up by more German resources.

[AVV]

Good evening!

May be, the German high command was not so enthusiastic about landing on Malta, taking into account high losses of German airborne forces during the battle for Crete in 1941. And the Germans could presume that the defence of Malta would be stronger and more fierce than on Crete, as the sooner was much more important at that time for Britain than the latter in 1941, IMHO.

Best regards, Aleks

[princeliberty10311517]

Good evening!

May be, the German high command was not so enthusiastic about landing on Malta, taking into account high losses of German airborne forces during the battle for Crete in 1941. And the Germans could presume that the defence of Malta would be stronger and more fierce than on Crete, as the sooner was much more important at that time for Britain than the latter in 1941, IMHO.

Best regards, Aleks

The defenses would have been a lot weaker than those of Crete, if they had attacked the summer of 1940.

But even in 1942, I don't think the British had an armor division on Malta like they did Crete.

Crete defenses were far stronger than any normal deployment to defend an island due to troops who were withdraw from the Greece fight still being on the Island.

[bf109 emil]

The logistics will work for Germany if the Med become a German lake. Which will happen if Germany moves serious airpower to Sicily and Crete. Conversely, British forces based in Egypt will lose their supply line when German aircraft based on Crete close the Suez Canal and the Port of Alexandria with aerial mines laid at night.

The key is serious German air power in the Med. Malta hardly matters. In fact the island can be left to starve once all British naval vessels and aircraft have been destroyed.

sounds like a repeat of the BoB...the problem with this is once the British aircraft are destroyed...hey they fly in more from 400 miles off the decks of carriers and the waste by the Luftwaffe and Italians go for not unless the Island is held...as for the Island left to starve...na they would have to stop shipping to have this done,,,they tried and where not successful...as for having a whole bunch of planes stationed on Crete? for how long...do these planes sit idle and in a defensive role until moved and British shipping returns? as for aerial mines, these work until swept, and then the whole case is played again...Germany tried this with ports on the Emglish coast and once swept, poof, ports reopened....Unless Malta and the Suez are taken with force they will always exist...

The Germans should have sent in their and the Italian paratroopers in the Summer of 1940.

they'd have been slaughtered...look at the looses on Crete to both men and machine inflicted upon Germany against a thrown together defense and no fixed positions and partisans barely armed...an air attack by paratroopers would have been a feather in the British cap and a huge defeat towards Italy and Germany

The logistics are not there. But in the meantime, assuming it goes off in July and is a success, Rommel does not go after El Alemain in July/August. It gives the British time to recover from the beating they just suffered, but also allows Rommel's supply to catch up.

and lol had Rommel listened he'd have not squandered away armor and men and supplies on silly offensive missions with no real chance of obtaining objectives without resupplies, and ones he knew where not coming now with Barbarossa launched his position in North Africa would have lasted a lot longer, but by tossing armor/Tanks/etc. against Tobruk and offensives, ones the British could make good on re-supplying and likewise ones the OKH knew where not going to go to North Africa he might have obeyed and discontinued his attacks, using poor logistics, and shored up his supply line line Kesselring and Paulus told him to, instead of glory seeking and thus destroying the DAK and a long retreat and doom back in Tunisia, have a nervous breakdown and squander the creme of the DAK to imprisonment after he turned his back on them...Like Kesselring said and quote "He was the best leader of fast moving troops up to army level. Above that level it was too much for him. Rommel was given too much responsibility> He was a good commander for a corps of the army but he was to moody, too changeable. One moment he would be enthusiastic, and next moment depressed." and asked was Rommel ever so depressed he had to be hospitalized? Kesselring reply "Yes Rommel had a nevous breakdown in North Africa and was hospitalized. He was depressed mainly. At El Alamein he was not the Rommel he had been anymore. From then on it was too much for him"

The defenses would have been a lot weaker than those of Crete, if they had attacked the summer of 1940.

No Malta was a British and defensively established long before and better then a hastely thrown together defense of Crete, rushed there after the fall of Greece

[Dave Bender]

Axis aircraft could not be locked down in constantly suppressing and bombing the island, as they were needed at the front.

Hence the Axis may as well forget trying to win a strategic victory in the Med.

[bf109 emil]

Axis aircraft could not be locked down in constantly suppressing and bombing the island, as they were needed at the front.

Hence the Axis may as well forget trying to win a strategic victory in the Med.

I don't think they (Germans) ever intended on an absolute victory in the Med.? The Med was the Italian theatre, which they sought to help and aid...even North Africa and Rommel where under orders from Italy...IMHO, German secured and at a loss places like Crete and Greece and the Yugoslavia where British could be a threat to them in Russia or Romania oil supplies, etc. but as for sustaining losses say at Malta and hand the Island over to Italy, hmmm i think Hitler liked Mussolini but not that much....lol...IMHO Hitler wanted the British in North Africa...there they would concentrate supplies, men., logistics! Had Rommel listened and created numerous defensive lines with what armor he had instead of wasting in offensive gambles...the success of the British in North Africa would have been costly, lengthy and placed terra firma in Africa,,,but by weakening himself in offensive thrusts, North Africa was lost earlier then OKH had hoped, equipment, troops, planes, armor,ships all used by the British in North Africa became suddenly unleashed and now a threat which might not have been the case had they still struggled in Africa had OKH plans been listened and followed by Rommel...Now free, they had the Chance and did so invading Italy...albeit they where stopped, a large amount of equipment/men/armor/planes had to be diverted from the Soviet Union to meet this threat where as had Rommel not lost 250,000 men in Africa forced to surrender at Tunisia and equipment lost there, this equipment and men could have stayed in the Soviet Union