Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

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stg 44
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Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#1

Post by stg 44 » 04 Aug 2010, 01:46

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_submarine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_sub ... eutschland
http://alternatehistory.com/discussion/ ... chant+subs

Breaking off from Tim Smith's threat about no new German capital ship construction during WW1, I have posted some comments from that threat on this subject below. The premise of this thread is that the Kaiserliche Marine realizes that a blockade is a distinct possibility in WW1 and make some preparations into different solution, one of which being merchant submarines. None are started before the war starts, but construction of the Deutschland starts in October 1914 and is completed in early 1915. It makes it famous journey in June, to much acclaim in the US, and prompts an offer for an American company to make more merchant subs for the Germans. On the Deutschland's next trip it brings back financing for the construction, which starts in late 1915. 10 models are ordered based on the Deutschland. In Germany another 7 are under construction and the Deutschland makes several more trips during the year, bringing back needed items not banned as war materials by the US, including nitrates and metals in low supply. By November 5 more subs are ready for action and start making the trip, one is lost, but the others are able to make runs on their own. Some banks start to make loans to the Germans for goods and further construction of these subs. The UK protests vigorously, but the US media brings up issues like the blockade being unlawful, to older matters like the UK building warships for the Confederacy in the Civil War. The US government doesn't involve itself other than to deny its company's actions are legal, and quietly remind the UK of the illegality of their blockade, but the issue is dropped by both sides.

How does this impact the war in your minds? I will voice my opinions on the matter later after I get some responses, if I get any.


stg 44 wrote: @Dave Bender: The subs can, depending on the numbers involved, import large amounts of crucial nitrates, which would help sagging production at home. Crucial metals, like copper, can also be brought in to help alleviate the tremendous strain. One trip took about 2 months there and back, plus rest, loading, and refit. That means, for the sake of argument, that 1 sub can bring in (700*5=) 3500 tons per year. Add 10 subs= 35,000. 50 subs=175,000 tons. Will this be enough to break the blockade, no. But it will make things easier at home if the right items are brought in, and it will create a feeling that a neutral US is more important that attempt to starve out the British with. A US company that made subs for the US during the war offered to make merchant subs for the Germans. If they pay for it, the Germans would not have to worry about their own production to make these subs. Also there were plenty of concerned German-Americans to train in the US to run these subs so men would not need to be transported. It is a major unexplored option that could have had interesting and crucial political and military effects on the course of the war, especially if the Germans can secure some of those war loans the US was giving out....

BDV wrote:As to the undersurfacers not having a real impact. An airplane engine at the time was 2-300 kilos. Assuming only 200 tons in the pressure hull, still gives 1,000 airplane engines, in one load. Or the equivalent in tractor engines. Or Maxim machineguns. There is a manpower shortage in Germany (with all the men on front), and a manpower excess in US (with world commerce at a standstill). Yanks would have continue to have great interest in dyes and Salvarsan (as would America south of RioGrande). Labor intensive stuff can be traded for mutual profit. If the flotilla can ensure 50 trips per year, that's 10,000 tons. 10,000,000 kilos, and both US and Germany have stuff that interests the other and which can turn 10 US$/kg profit.

That would also establish a conduit in which gold and silver bullion is flowing from the Prussian and KuK coffers into yankee pockets. Rather than Entente paper promises. Cutting this flow will be a hard, hard sell for the kernel House's War Party. So if to this economic bonanza, HSF adds slow but unrelenting attrition of RN, British pressure on US becomes that much less effective.

The cost to Britain of US joining in skyrockets (Singapore +/- Hong Kong?). If Germany, in exchange for US assurances on neutrality, officially recognizes US's first right over any assets to retrieve its (US) war loans, is Britain ready to garnish the Singapore gift to US with their Caribeean posesions and Falklands?

Slip a 4-5 merchants in the Mediteraneean, have a trade line open with Spain, give RN some more wild goose chasing.

But if the 2nd Reich leadership wouldn't have been infatuated with shiny military solutions, would they have been in the mess, to begin with?
Dave Bender wrote:Merchant submarines can transport only a tiny amount of cargo per trip. About 700 tons for the historical Deutschland. Cruising speed is pretty slow also. That makes for very expensive shipping costs per ton of cargo. They cannot carry enough to make a dent in German industrial and food imports. However there might be another use for cargo submarines. They can be used for clandestine missions to places like Ost Afrika.

According to the U.S. Army...
800 rounds of 7.62mm NATO ammunition weighs 41 kg. That includes 4 steel ammo cans packed in a wooden crate. I'm going to assume that 7.92mm Mauser ammo and packaging weighs approximately the same.
24 crates of ammunition weighs 1 metric ton (1,000 kg.) 19,200 rounds of ammunition.

So...
A Deutschland class cargo submarine can carry about 13 million rounds of small arms ammunition. Ammo cans are compact and rugged which makes them ideal cargo to carry on a submarine. (I served on a USN sub for 2 years and have helped load plenty of cargo.)

Approximately 10,000 Schultztruppen in Ost Afrika after the 1915 expansion. So a Deutschland class submarine can provide about 1,300 rounds of small arms ammunition per trip for each soldier. Let's call it 1,000 rounds to allow a bit of room for mail and medical supplies.

One Deutschland class submarine trip per month would keep Ost Afrika supplied indefinately. With Gen. Lettow-Vorbeck in command they would keep fighting until they die of old age during the 1960s. 8-)

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#2

Post by phylo_roadking » 04 Aug 2010, 02:52

First thoughts on this...

How do the Germans reliably maintain that flow of cargo submarines into Germany or German-held ports? The arrival of Roger Keyes at Dover closed the open sore for uboat transit into the Western Approaches that was the English Channel. Compared to the previous two years with Bacon as Flag Officer Dover, Keyes was phenomenally successful.

Secondly - what the British then do is greatly extend the WWI North Sea Mine Barrage - and extend their efforts off North German ports :wink:
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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#3

Post by Terry Duncan » 04 Aug 2010, 03:03

I just do not see the returns would be worth the investment and time. If it were vital to ship something like uranium for making bombs as in WWII then maybe, as the quantities could be managed, but in WWI there is little that can be shipped in this sort of transport that will change much for Germany other than for morale.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#4

Post by stg 44 » 04 Aug 2010, 03:44

Terry Duncan wrote:I just do not see the returns would be worth the investment and time. If it were vital to ship something like uranium for making bombs as in WWII then maybe, as the quantities could be managed, but in WWI there is little that can be shipped in this sort of transport that will change much for Germany other than for morale.
Morale was lacking in the later years of the war, so even that bit can be useful. The major effect that I see in this effort is that it makes the Germans less willing to risk bringing the US into the war by resuming unrestricted submarine warfare. It creates an emotional bond, in that the Germans don't feel the US is favoring the Entente completely and are supplying them with crucial goods that keep the home front somewhat better supplied. If the US stays out, well, we've gotten into that topic enough, but it would give the Reich a better shot at staying in until negotiations start. Beyond that, it would also help the military keep enough important materials flowing in to help with some other important projects like aircraft building and perhaps expanding production of artillery shells and machine guns at home.

phylo_roadking wrote:First thoughts on this...

How do the Germans reliably maintain that flow of cargo submarines into Germany or German-held ports? The arrival of Roger Keyes at Dover closed the open sore for uboat transit into the Western Approaches that was the English Channel. Compared to the previous two years with Bacon as Flag Officer Dover, Keyes was phenomenally successful.

Secondly - what the British then do is greatly extend the WWI North Sea Mine Barrage - and extend their efforts off North German ports :wink:
Good question, I would assume that once the Dover Barrage goes into real effect the subs get routed up north around Scotland. Also the North Sea Barrage only came about after the US got involved and it was their initiative as they produced the mines to put it in place. Prior the British didn't feel the cost was justified. Also, it seems not to have been particularly effective in stopping subs due to the sheer distances involved.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_Mine_Barrage

What efforts would allow the British to really extend their control of the German North Sea ports? I know there were raids on Zeebrugge, but the German fleet bases were a different animal all together and backed up by the High Seas Fleet, as well as minefields.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#5

Post by Tim Smith » 04 Aug 2010, 13:27

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_submarine
The Deutschland had a carrying capacity of 700 tons (much of it outside the pressure hull), and could travel at 15 knots (17.3 mph; 27.8 km/h) on the surface and 7 knots (8.1 mph; 13.0 km/h) while submerged. It had a crew of 29 men and was commanded by Paul König, a former surface merchantman captain.[3]

On its first journey to the US, departing on the 23 June 1916, Deutschland carried 163 tons of highly sought-after chemical dyes, as well as medical drugs and mail.[2] Passing undetected through the English Channel[1] she arrived in Baltimore on the 8 July 1916 and soon reembarked with 348 tons of rubber, 341 tons of nickel and 93 tons of tin, arriving back in Bremerhaven on 25 August 1916. She had traveled 8,450 nautical miles (9,724 mi; 15,649 km), though only 190 nmi (219 mi; 352 km) of these submerged.

The profit from the journey was 17.5 million Reichsmark, more than four times the building cost,[2] mainly because of the high prices of the patented, highly concentrated dyes, which would have cost US$1,254 per pound in 2005 dollars.[3] In return, the raw materials brought back covered the specific needs of the German war industry for several months.[2]

A second journey in October-December of the same year was also very successful, again trading chemicals, medicines and gems for rubber, nickel, alloys and tin. However, the Deutschland was lightly damaged during a collision with a tug in New London.[2] Following his return, captain Paul König wrote a book (or possibly had it ghost-written) about the journeys of the Deutschland. The book was heavily publicized, as it was intended to sway public opinion in both Germany and the U.S.[4]
Merchant submarines are only worthwhile for REALLY high value cargoes, of materials that ABSOLUTELY CANNOT be sourced anywhere other than the USA.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#6

Post by stg 44 » 04 Aug 2010, 19:20

Tim Smith wrote: Merchant submarines are only worthwhile for REALLY high value cargoes, of materials that ABSOLUTELY CANNOT be sourced anywhere other than the USA.
I wouldn't say that it would only work for the REALLY high value cargoes, unless you can define what that means. 700 tons of nitrates would be invaluable and it can be procured from other places besides the US. Now, other cargoes like tin, magnesium, wolfram, nickel, and others would be a major help to German industry. Again, this won't solve all of Germany's problems or even most, but it is crucial to keeping things functioning in industry and preventing the Entente from pulling too far ahead. 700 tons of wool or cotton would be a waste, despite being needed at home, but priorities need to be set just as always.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#7

Post by Tim Smith » 05 Aug 2010, 08:24

stg 44 wrote:
Tim Smith wrote: Merchant submarines are only worthwhile for REALLY high value cargoes, of materials that ABSOLUTELY CANNOT be sourced anywhere other than the USA.
I wouldn't say that it would only work for the REALLY high value cargoes, unless you can define what that means.
Equal to or greater than the value of the submarine itself.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#8

Post by BDV » 05 Aug 2010, 12:48

Tim Smith wrote:
I wouldn't say that it would only work for the REALLY high value cargoes, unless you can define what that means.

Equal to or greater than the value of the submarine itself.
Why so high? I'd say a 10% profit rate (20% per round trip) is fair for 1915.
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700 tons of nitrates

#9

Post by Dave Bender » 05 Aug 2010, 15:16

Germany was not short of nitrates. At least not compared to Entente nations. German merchant submarines would carry what they transported historically.

SS Deutschland cargo on trip to the USA.
http://www.colorantshistory.org/Submari ... hland.html
750 tons of medicinal and coal-tar dye products. The above link contains specific products and how much they sold for. In total the cargo was valued at $1.5 million.

SS Deutschland cargo on return trip to Germany.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_sub ... eutschland
341 tons of nickel.
93 tons of tin.
348 tons of rubber.
In total the cargo was valued at $17.5 million. Several times what it cost to build the submarine.

November 2, 1916 N.Y Times article on SS Deutschland
http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-fr ... 946796D6CF

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Various commodities

#10

Post by BDV » 05 Aug 2010, 15:42

Rubber had sold as high as 1000 pound sterling per ton in 1910. One assumes it was worth at least that much to the german war economy. That alone is more than half million pound sterling per trip.
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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#11

Post by stg 44 » 05 Aug 2010, 17:32

It would be nice to know what the value of various commodities were at the time, but rubber alone is probably worth it weight in gold. I would also like to know what the monthly need was for each metal for the German war effort if anyone has that information.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#12

Post by Baltasar » 05 Aug 2010, 17:48

It'd also be nice to know which materials would matter in so small quantities. While I agree that it'd go a long way of trying not to get the USA into the war, the problem would be that the sheer size, or rather lack thereof, of the merchant subs would mean that the influx of goods would be rather symbolic.

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which materials would matter in so small quantities

#13

Post by Dave Bender » 05 Aug 2010, 18:08

WWI Germany was not successful in producing high qualtiy synthetic rubber (as happened during WWII). Hence it's one of the more important imports. Automobile tires aside, it's needed for machinery gaskets and seals.

Germany had access to plenty of iron ore and coal. What they lacked were the various additives like nickel necessary to produce high strengh steel for things like armor plate and engine crankshafts.

It's impossible to import enough food by submarine and in any case the German food shortage did not get really bad until after the USA entered the conflict.

Germany obtained enough petroleum from Austria-Hungary (probably Romania also) and enough nitrates from the new BASF Haber process factories. Aluminum was available locally once they increased electric power generation, which happened historically.

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Re: Kaiserreich supports merchant subs in 1914

#14

Post by stg 44 » 05 Aug 2010, 19:03

I've read that the bottleneck in German shell production was explosive powder, partly due to the lack of production of nitrates (something the Austro-Hungarians really lacked), which still would make nitrate importing very valuable for the Central powers, not just Germany. Still something like cotton would still be necessary for filling as well, another fiber in short supply. Also, with more nitrates, plans to increase flax production can take off.

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Kriegs-Rohstoff-Abteilung

#15

Post by Dave Bender » 05 Aug 2010, 19:04

If you want to know exactly what resources Germany lacked during WWI then I suggest using Google to research the Kriegs-Rohstoff-Abteilung (War Resource Department of the German War Ministry). Almost all the source material is written in German. A good job for a native German speaker like Baltasar. :)

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