1941: What if Germany refuses troops for North Africa

[Urmel]

Ju 87s were in action over Malta until at least mid-April:

Here is the table you couldn't read:

[Urmel]

...the tapering off of attacks began in April

Do you really want to persist with this, which increasingly looks like a fantasy?

Estimates of the weight of bombs dropped during the peak month of April varied between 350 and 650 tons, but even the higher figure is low compared with what Malta was to experience in 1942, or with many attacks elsewhere.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/ ... d-2-3.html

A critical mistake was not starving Malta into submission before shifting X. Fliegerkorps to Greece in May-June. They let up just at the moment the Brits had given up on it, but hadn't decided to surrender yet, which let them recover and turn it into the major output in the Mediterranean.

Soon after the entry of Italy into the war it had been decided to build up an eight months' stock of essential commodities in Malta by April 1941. Seven months' stock had been provided before the arrival of the Luftwaffe prevented the programme being completed. In March rationing was introduced. This had not been done sooner because the Government of Malta had thought it best to let the people see for themselves how dependent they were upon the rare convoys for much of their necessities. The quantity of goods issued wholesale by the Government had however been controlled since the beginning of the war, and consequently less had been available in the shops. In this way there had already been cuts in the issues of sugar, fats, tinned meat, milk, coffee, and matches. So the added effect of rationing was small, except to ensure an equal distribution. At the end of May it was calculated that by rigid control the stocks in Malta could be made to last until January 1942, with the exception of aviation spirit which at the present rate would last only until September. The ration of kerosene had also to be cut, and as kerosene supplied heat as well as light a reduction meant fewer hot meals for the population.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/ ... d-2-3.html

My emphasis.

Where is the evidence that a continued two weeks of bombing would have led Malta to collapse?

Where is the evidence that the Malta Command or London were ready to surrender the island in April or May 1941 because they had 'given up on it'? All the CAB files are online, surely it would have been discussed there.

[stg 44]

...the tapering off of attacks began in April

Do you really want to persist with this, which increasingly looks like a fantasy?

Estimates of the weight of bombs dropped during the peak month of April varied between 350 and 650 tons, but even the higher figure is low compared with what Malta was to experience in 1942, or with many attacks elsewhere.

350-650 tons is a HUGE variance. How can they say it is a peak month for tonnage when the high estimate is double the low one??? Also what does 1942 have to do with this? Sure in 1942 the situation was even more grim for Malta and they were one convoy away from surrender:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation ... Background

Malta would be forced to surrender if fuel, food and ammunition were not delivered before September and Air Vice-Marshal Keith Park, the local air commander since July, warned that there remained only a few weeks' supply of aviation fuel.

At the end of May it was calculated that by rigid control the stocks in Malta could be made to last until January 1942, with the exception of aviation spirit which at the present rate would last only until September. The ration of kerosene had also to be cut, and as kerosene supplied heat as well as light a reduction meant fewer hot meals for the population.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/ ... d-2-3.html

My emphasis.

Where is the evidence that a continued two weeks of bombing would have led Malta to collapse?

Where is the evidence that the Malta Command or London were ready to surrender the island in April or May 1941 because they had 'given up on it'? All the CAB files are online, surely it would have been discussed there.

I already addressed the problem with this part earlier. "AT THE END OF MAY" is after the Luftwaffe left Sicily and two large convoys had arrived unmolested. Those two large convoys provided the 7 month stockpile. Why are you persisting with that flawed stat? If the Luftwaffe stays and keeps up pressure on the island and the Brits either don't send those convoys or they are sunk en route or damaged in the harbor before being unloaded that 7 month stockpile will not be available. I've already said I overstated the case initially saying the Brits were ready to surrender the island by May, clearly they were not, but it wasn't until after the Luftwaffe tapered their attacks and left that the big relief convoys that brought in those 7 months of supplies arrived.

[Urmel]

350-650 tons is a HUGE variance. How can they say it is a peak month for tonnage when the high estimate is double the low one???

Well I dunno, but given that until now you have provided zero evidence for your claims, how can you say it wasn't?

Also what does 1942 have to do with this?

Nothing. It's not germane to the argument any which way. Why do you bring it up?

At the end of May it was calculated that by rigid control the stocks in Malta could be made to last until January 1942, with the exception of aviation spirit which at the present rate would last only until September. The ration of kerosene had also to be cut, and as kerosene supplied heat as well as light a reduction meant fewer hot meals for the population.

https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/UN/UK/ ... d-2-3.html

My emphasis.

Where is the evidence that a continued two weeks of bombing would have led Malta to collapse?

Where is the evidence that the Malta Command or London were ready to surrender the island in April or May 1941 because they had 'given up on it'? All the CAB files are online, surely it would have been discussed there.

I already addressed the problem with this part earlier. "AT THE END OF MAY" is after the Luftwaffe left Sicily and two large convoys had arrived unmolested. Those two large convoys provided the 7 month stockpile.

1) You're dead wrong. The stockpile clearly existed before the convoys got in.

2) No you haven't. Repeatedly claiming that you have when you haven't does not make it so.

3) Do you ever read the links provided? Obviously not. The key sentence is this:

Soon after the entry of Italy into the war it had been decided to build up an eight months' stock of essential commodities in Malta by April 1941. Seven months' stock had been provided before the arrival of the Luftwaffe prevented the programme being completed.

My emphasis.

So in January 1941 they had seven months' stock. In March a major convoy got in (MW6), adding to that with four vessels, City of Manchester (8,917t), Clan Ferguson (7,347t), Perthshire (7-10,000t Cameron-Class steamer), and City of Lincoln (8,039t). That's a very substantial convoy that would have added 10s of thousands of tons to stocks. Then Breconshire in April, although that in fairness was quite small. Then another major convoy including petrol in early May, before the mid-May date when the LW actually started letting up.

I've already said I overstated the case initially saying the Brits were ready to surrender the island by May, clearly they were not, but it wasn't until after the Luftwaffe tapered their attacks and left that the big relief convoys that brought in those 7 months of supplies arrived.

Ah we're getting somewhere...

So, if Malta is not ready to surrender in May, what does that do to your contention that the additional supplies gained in April, May, and June would have enabled the Axis to undertake a major operation into Egypt in September?

Please then address the following questions with some evidence:

1) What additional supplies would have been gained?
2) What was the force ratio in August/September?
3) What was the actual Axis strength in August and September?
4) What is a reasonable estimate for Axis losses in an attack on Tobruk in August/September (take your pick of the month)
5) What is the reasonable estimate for reorganisation time to commence operations into Egypt, and how and why does this differ from June 1942?
6) How do 4) and 5) affect 2)?

[Graniterail]

...The UK and Vichy were de facto at war. Why not push into French North Africa and secure the entire southern coast of the Med? That would make the Med almost and allied lake, deny the Germans any chance of getting back into North Africa, deter Franco, open bases in west Africa for ASW and the Vichy French would IMO sooner than later turn into Free French.

...

Quite possibly Churchill might want to try for French North Africa for the reasons stated. However, in July 1941, Britain is in no condition to mount an amphibious operation on the scale of Operation Torch...

What about invading French West Africa? There was the 1940 gamble at Dakar into the thick of the French defenses, but in this time line the British will continue to hold ports along South West Africa in late 1941 without otherwise active fronts unless they choose them. They can land forces into Gambia, Nigeria, the Gold Coast and Sierra Leone. There was Gold, Coffee, Chocolate, Cotton, Bauxite to be captured. Resupply for the Vichy forces would have to be by sea, the RN would have a say about that. There were far less Vichy troops to beat in French West Africa than there were in French North Africa.

In our time line there was a lot of Merchant Shipping hit by U-Boats off the coast of French West Africa in late 1941. That might be different without a North African Campaign forcing so many convoys around the Cape of Good Hope, but it would likely have been happening so far by mid-1941 in this time line so it might be a motivating factor, to get bases from which ASW aircraft patrols can more easily operate from.

- Italy being exposed to aerial bombing from Lybia: Hmm, was there much worth bombing?...

The rail grid. There's a vicious cycle with Italy needing to import Coal via Alpine Rail.

Fighter cover based in Libya means Convoys get through to Malta easily. Convoys getting through to Malta easily means airpower bases from Malta.

Airpower based on Malta means fighter coverage of all of Sicily. Fighter coverage over all of Sicily prevents free Axis naval movements through the Straits of Messina, this could have implications for Axis Oil tanker movements otherwise moving Romania->Black Sea->Dardanelles->Aegean->Corinth Canal->Ionian->Messina->West Coast of Italy/Vichy France.

710 Miles from Sicily hits the Albanian Oil fields, permits aerial mining of the Danube, the Corinth Canal (Romanian Oil barges) & bombing of Italy's industrial triangle. It means SOE drops direct to Tito & Greek Partisans. The Lancaster arriving in 1942 was supposed to get 1500 miles with a full bombload http://www.raf.mod.uk/bbmf/theaircraft/ ... istory.cfm though what year model that is I don't know.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
In our time line there was a lot of Merchant Shipping hit by U-Boats off the coast of French West Africa in late 1941. That might be different without a North African Campaign forcing so many convoys around the Cape of Good Hope, but it would likely have been happening so far by mid-1941 in this time line so it might be a motivating factor, to get bases from which ASW aircraft patrols can more easily operate from.

...

Was this one of the motivations behind the proposal of the original Gymnast Operation? To obtain airbases for patroling the adjacent area of the Atlantic?

[Keitel]

Okay with the Op in question:

No DAK means OKH can form a powerful Panzer Korps with 2nd, 5th, 15th Panzer Divisions, and 5th Light Division. Hell we'll give it to Rommel. Germany kept 200 Stug IIIs in a central reserve at the start of Barbarossa which were not deployed for it, and was forming the 22nd and 23rd Panzer Divisions, and kept the 100th SMIB in reserve instead of using them on the Ost Front as replacements.

Heck just sending a Panzer Korps under Rommel into action in mid-July to reinforce Guderian would mean Guderian could still be sent south to encircle Kiev and Rommel could continue the push towards Moscow. Using the cadres meant to form 22nd and 23rd Panzer as replacements would even bring Guderian back up to full strength and slightly over it. The 200 Stugs could also be sent forward, some as replacements, the rest to form new batteries and parceled out to the Infantry. This would be decisive and cause Moscow to fall.

As for the Mediterranean. Britain takes Libya and sits for a year. It will be a while for them to get the ships and aircraft to make a go at Crete. By then it won't make much difference as the USSR would be gone and Germany can start diverting resources to deal with the British.

[T. A. Gardner]

The interesting part in this is not so much that Italy will lose in North Africa, but what comes afterwards.

Okay, no German troops in North Africa. Germany occupies Greece and Crete. The Italians surrender and all of Libya falls to the British. Now what?

The US isn't in the war yet. Britain on their own can't invade Sicily, let alone Italy, and isn't going anywhere in particular fast at that point. I could see some of the following between mid 1941 and the end of 1942:

-The Commonwealth is allowed to pull some troops out of North Africa along with planes and pilots. Malaysia and Singapore don't fall to the Japanese.

-The US builds up for a direct invasion of Europe with Britain (Sledgehammer or the like) in late 1942 - early 1943. There is no Atlantic Wall to speak of and forces in the West are weaker.

-The Eastern Front is still a resource draining quagmire for Germany. The extra troops make it a bit more favorable for them, but they're just being bled white by losses and fighting there with no end in sight.

-With the British next to Vichy French North Africa, once the US enters the war, the Western Allies get the French to side with them as the invasion goes into France. It might even go in via the Mediterranean. I could see Italy surrendering or calling for an armistice upon France being invaded from the Med rather than continuing to fight. That forces a German occupation of Italy.

[Keitel]

The interesting part in this is not so much that Italy will lose in North Africa, but what comes afterwards.

Okay, no German troops in North Africa. Germany occupies Greece and Crete. The Italians surrender and all of Libya falls to the British. Now what?

The US isn't in the war yet. Britain on their own can't invade Sicily, let alone Italy, and isn't going anywhere in particular fast at that point. I could see some of the following between mid 1941 and the end of 1942:

-The Commonwealth is allowed to pull some troops out of North Africa along with planes and pilots. Malaysia and Singapore don't fall to the Japanese.

-The US builds up for a direct invasion of Europe with Britain (Sledgehammer or the like) in late 1942 - early 1943. There is no Atlantic Wall to speak of and forces in the West are weaker.

-The Eastern Front is still a resource draining quagmire for Germany. The extra troops make it a bit more favorable for them, but they're just being bled white by losses and fighting there with no end in sight.

In this circumstance I don't see Hitler declaring war on the US as the Japanese faced with growing British Strength in the Pacific may oft to sleep on firewood and lick gall, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a close one and growing British Strength would trash all the Japanese Planning which even they considered a long shot. So the Japanese deadlock at the Cabinet Level, the War continues in China and Yamamoto is drawn into supporting the China effort to win before the oil runs out as the Go South Strategy is shelved. The Emperor lacking a spine, doesn't use his constitutional powers to get the Cabinet to knock off their shit and the economy implodes. At which point you have a palace civil war between the Navy and Army who can't bite the bullet and admit they're wrong. Basically what we have brewing today in the current Trump Administration with pretty much an open civil war between Trump and large parts of the Deep State of the US, especially with the US intelligence committee.

As for the Ost Front, adding that extra Panzer Korps as I outlined would be the straw that breaks the Camel's back for the Soviets. Rommel will punch forward to Moscow before the Siberian Divisions can get into position in the Vyzama-Bryzansk area where they were annihilated and subsequently replaced by the Far Eastern Divisions that launched the OTL Counter Attack in December. Moscow falls, and the entire Soviet Rail Transportation System will crumble and its central bureaucracy will be disrupted for months and trash all planning efforts. This will effectively throw the Soviets east of the Urals, leaving the majority of the population and resources/industry under German control. Stalin simply can't bounce back from that and would be hard pressed to keep the Turkic Republics under his control.

[T. A. Gardner]

In this circumstance I don't see Hitler declaring war on the US as the Japanese faced with growing British Strength in the Pacific may oft to sleep on firewood and lick gall, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a close one and growing British Strength would trash all the Japanese Planning which even they considered a long shot. So the Japanese deadlock at the Cabinet Level, the War continues in China and Yamamoto is drawn into supporting the China effort to win before the oil runs out as the Go South Strategy is shelved. The Emperor lacking a spine, doesn't use his constitutional powers to get the Cabinet to knock off their shit and the economy implodes. At which point you have a palace civil war between the Navy and Army who can't bite the bullet and admit they're wrong. Basically what we have brewing today in the current Trump Administration with pretty much an open civil war between Trump and large parts of the Deep State of the US, especially with the US intelligence committee.

As for the Ost Front, adding that extra Panzer Korps as I outlined would be the straw that breaks the Camel's back for the Soviets. Rommel will punch forward to Moscow before the Siberian Divisions can get into position in the Vyzama-Bryzansk area where they were annihilated and subsequently replaced by the Far Eastern Divisions that launched the OTL Counter Attack in December. Moscow falls, and the entire Soviet Rail Transportation System will crumble and its central bureaucracy will be disrupted for months and trash all planning efforts. This will effectively throw the Soviets east of the Urals, leaving the majority of the population and resources/industry under German control. Stalin simply can't bounce back from that and would be hard pressed to keep the Turkic Republics under his control.

Hitler was going to declare. The US and Germany were already in a defacto war at sea. German U-boats had torpedoed US destroyers, US destroyers had attacked German U-boats. Lend-Lease was in full swing. Whether Germany is in North Africa or not, they were going to end up at war with the US. The Greenland patrol had already captured several German weather ships and engaged German soldiers in minor combat there, to include taking POW's. The US also took over Iceland and began maritime patrols of the North Atlantic from the island. It was going to happen.

Japan likewise would have still gone to war. The US had pretty much pushed them there, and Britain was going along for the ride. The DEI was massively gearing up for a war too. They had ordered masses of mostly US equipment to flesh out about a half million man army including nearly 1000 tanks in total. They'd ordered 875 light tanks from Marmon-Harrington in the US alone. The same goes for aircraft, even ships eventually.

If Japan waited just another 6 or so months, they'd have lost before they started. The US would have built up to a point in the PI it wouldn't have fallen. The DEI would have sufficient equipment and trained troops to end a Japanese invasion. They also knew that taking China alone bought them little in the way of vital resources they desperately needed. They had to go South and take Malaysia for its rubber and the DEI for oil, among other resources. They don't and their economy collapses by the end of 1942.
The British finishing North Africa would have only reinforced Malaysia some. It wouldn't have massively done so. The British would have kept the bulk of their forces in Europe facing the Germans regardless.
Likewise, the Naval situation really doesn't change either. There's no real change by not having a German presence in North Africa as the Germans had next to no navy in the Mediterranean.

The few more units that are freed up from no North African campaign really wouldn't have changed the Eastern Front dramatically either. They simply aren't enough to do that. They might have kept the Russians on the defensive longer, but in the end what really kills the Germans in the East isn't a lack of field forces nearly so much as the squandering of equipment and manpower due to a near total lack of infrastructure and only limited ability to construct it. The Germans in Russia didn't need more tanks. They needed bulldozers and dump trucks.

[Keitel]

Hitler was going to declare. The US and Germany were already in a defacto war at sea. German U-boats had torpedoed US destroyers, US destroyers had attacked German U-boats. Lend-Lease was in full swing. Whether Germany is in North Africa or not, they were going to end up at war with the US. The Greenland patrol had already captured several German weather ships and engaged German soldiers in minor combat there, to include taking POW's. The US also took over Iceland and began maritime patrols of the North Atlantic from the island. It was going to happen.

Not a forgone conclusion. The skirmishes with the USN which were illegal by the US, weren't enough and Germany could claim self-defense. It took Pearl Harbor to get the ball rolling.

Japan likewise would have still gone to war. The US had pretty much pushed them there, and Britain was going along for the ride. The DEI was massively gearing up for a war too. They had ordered masses of mostly US equipment to flesh out about a half million man army including nearly 1000 tanks in total. They'd ordered 875 light tanks from Marmon-Harrington in the US alone. The same goes for aircraft, even ships eventually.

Not a forgone conclusion, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a narrow one, and news that substantial Commonwealth Forces are going to Malaysia before the Japanese are ready would cause the Pearl Harbor plan to be reconsidered as now the IJN has to worry about two Pacific Fleets and with the British controlling Libya, Kimmel will be getting back his fleet tankers which will enable him to reduce the number of ships in harbor which would utterly throw the Pearl Harbor plans out the window. The Japanese only went with the plan because they knew Kimmel had been stripped of his Tankers, and if he gets them back, Kido Butai lacks the fuel to chase the US Pacific Fleet around and it becomes too much of a gamble to send the carriers out there. As it was Kido Butai sailed with only 45% of its authorized ordinance and if Kimmel is able to get his Battleships out, its suicide for the IJN to attack.

If they do and the USN pulls off a victory, Hitler isn't going to declare a war as its clear Japan can't draw off enough forces and win for him to risk a war with the US.

The few more units that are freed up from no North African campaign really wouldn't have changed the Eastern Front dramatically either. They simply aren't enough to do that. They might have kept the Russians on the defensive longer, but in the end what really kills the Germans in the East isn't a lack of field forces nearly so much as the squandering of equipment and manpower due to a near total lack of infrastructure and only limited ability to construct it. The Germans in Russia didn't need more tanks. They needed bulldozers and dump trucks.

This is a myth. The Germans had ample construction groups in Russia working day and night improving the Infrastructure and tonnage delivered per day was increasing to more than double what it was at the start of the campaign despite the larger distances.

Lets see, from Operation Barbarossa: The Complete Organizational and Statistical Analysis, and Military Simulation Volume IIA by Nigel Askey, pg 655. Germany deployed all 30 of its Motorized Road Construction Battalions with ~ 1500 men each and with all the equipment needed to make asphalt roads and keep them functioning. They also deployed the bulk of their Railways Units to keep the Railways working. In addition 107 construction battalions also were deployed. This doesn't count other organizations such as Todt or press-ganged Soviet Road Crews from the occupied USSR.

Looking over my notes and I'm still going through these volumes, the Germans can also send the 60th Motorized Division to the Proposed Rommel Corps in July, halt the formation of the 17th Wave Divisions and strip their equipment and personnel for replacements.

This will keep the German Forces strong enough to successfully conclude Barbarossa with the practical defeat of the USSR west of the Urals and ensure Germany has the strategic depth to deter a US escalation.

Once the Germans seize Moscow, they own the Soviet Rail Network and all their problems will end as the USSR disintegrates west of the Urals.

[Keitel]

Going through my notes again from Operation Barbarossa: The Complete Organizational and Statistical Analysis, and Military Simulation Volume IIA by Nigel Askey: Go to volume IIB, pg. 136

408 Panzer Is were sitting in OKH reserves during Operation Barbarossa. All could have been converted to carry a sIG 33 and allow all German Divisions sent to the East to have SP sIG 33s. 431 Pz 38(t)s were also sitting in OKH reserves alongside 1095 Pz IIIs (50mm gun armed), 282 Panzer IVs, 3,512 light Half-Tracks, 489 Medium Half-Tracks, and 996 Heavy Half-Tracks, plus ~600 other AFVs excluding captured French Tanks. In addition 508,224 Trucks and 2,026,038 light transports were on the OKH's books, even releasing a fraction of those reserves would have completely motorized the Barbarossa Units, replaced all the Panzer Is and IIs to allow them to be converted to SP mounts, and ramped up the firepower and effectiveness of the German Divisions.

OKH really fucked up here in sending replacements and equipping the Frontlines. And it gets worse the more you read into Volume IIB. OKH fought Barbarossa on the cheap and were massively overconfident.

[T. A. Gardner]

Not a forgone conclusion. The skirmishes with the USN which were illegal by the US, weren't enough and Germany could claim self-defense. It took Pearl Harbor to get the ball rolling.

Yes it is. Here's a short synopsis...

November 3 1939: US lifts arms embargo and sells to Allied nations for cash. Germany denounces the move strongly.
October 3 1939: Declaration of Panama. US and Latin countries put America's off limits to belligerents, primarily Germany.
April 10 1940: US freezes Danish and Norwegian credit and funds in the US.
July 30 1940: Act of Havana. The US and Latin countries declare that any territory in the Western Hemisphere that becomes potentially held by unfriendly forces to its peacetime ownership is subject to being taken over and administered by the US etc. French Martinique for example gets occupied after France falls.
December 10 1940 Lend Lease begins
April 9 1941 Denmark's government in exile allows US occupation of Greenland. The German led Copenhagen government disavows the act but can do nothing.
May 21 1941 SS Robin Moor, US merchant shelled and sunk by U boat. Congress calls for reprisals. Major turning point in US - German relations to the negative.
June 14 1941 All German and Italian assets in US are frozen, along with other Axis controlled nations.
June 16 1941 All German and Italian consulates closed in the US
June 22 1941 US unfreezes Soviet / Russian assets in the US.
July 7 1941 US agrees to take over defense of Iceland. US Navy to escort merchants as far as Iceland now.
Nov 6 1941 US makes $1 in credit available to Russia for military purchases.
Sept 4 1941 USS Greer (destroyer) torpedoed after depth charging a U-boat.
Oct 9 1941 Congress weighs repealing Neutrality Act
Oct 17 1941 USS Kearny torpedoed in battle with U-boats.
Oct 27 1941, forward: Both US and Germany increasingly hostile rhetoric in speeches.
Oct 30 1941 USS Ruben James sunk by U-boat
Nov 13 1941 Neutrality Act repealed by Congress

It's very clear that Germany and the US were on the path to war regardless of what the Japanese did.

Not a forgone conclusion, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a narrow one, and news that substantial Commonwealth Forces are going to Malaysia before the Japanese are ready would cause the Pearl Harbor plan to be reconsidered as now the IJN has to worry about two Pacific Fleets and with the British controlling Libya, Kimmel will be getting back his fleet tankers which will enable him to reduce the number of ships in harbor which would utterly throw the Pearl Harbor plans out the window. The Japanese only went with the plan because they knew Kimmel had been stripped of his Tankers, and if he gets them back, Kido Butai lacks the fuel to chase the US Pacific Fleet around and it becomes too much of a gamble to send the carriers out there. As it was Kido Butai sailed with only 45% of its authorized ordinance and if Kimmel is able to get his Battleships out, its suicide for the IJN to attack.

Wrong. The Japanese were going to war regardless of whether they attacked Pearl Harbor or not. They had to take the PI out to ensure a safe route to the DEI and Malaysia by sea. They'd already occupied French Indonesia, and the US had occupied New Caledonia prior to going to war. Pearl Harbor made ZERO difference to the outcome of the Pacific War. All it did was piss the US off royally.

If they do and the USN pulls off a victory, Hitler isn't going to declare a war as its clear Japan can't draw off enough forces and win for him to risk a war with the US.

Now you are changing history in an extremely speculative way. Japan could never draw off enough forces. The war in Europe is a land war, not a naval war. The Pacific was a naval war. Hitler declared war because he knew the US would do so even if he didn't. The US actions in the Atlantic and with things like Lend Lease pretty much were convincing evidence that the US was going to jump in on the Allied side at some point.

This is a myth. The Germans had ample construction groups in Russia working day and night improving the Infrastructure and tonnage delivered per day was increasing to more than double what it was at the start of the campaign despite the larger distances.

Lets see, from Operation Barbarossa: The Complete Organizational and Statistical Analysis, and Military Simulation Volume IIA by Nigel Askey, pg 655. Germany deployed all 30 of its Motorized Road Construction Battalions with ~ 1500 men each and with all the equipment needed to make asphalt roads and keep them functioning. They also deployed the bulk of their Railways Units to keep the Railways working. In addition 107 construction battalions also were deployed. This doesn't count other organizations such as Todt or press-ganged Soviet Road Crews from the occupied USSR.

German construct engineers were almost totally non-mechanized. They had virtually no construction machinery assigned, as it simply didn't exist in any quantity in Germany at all. They were working almost entirely with hand tools. Even if they had some trucks to move the unit around, they wouldn't have the sort of machinery the US would have had and were by comparison unable to build the sort of infrastructure they really needed.
As for "30 of its Motorized Road Construction Battalions with ~ 1500 men each and with all the equipment needed to make asphalt roads and keep them functioning." Show me a source with this unit's TO&E listing the equipment they had.

How many asphalt plants? How many rock crushing plants? How many earth scrapers? How many road graders? How many dump trucks? How many road rollers? You can't build asphalt roads without that stuff unless you are taking years and doing it just a little a day with hand tools.

It took the US Army 9 months with 3000 men to build the Alcan Highway. 1700 miles of road in wilderness much like Russia would be, or worse and some on the edge of the Artic circle.

This photo is on D+3 Omaha beach. The US Army had a portable gravel plant going to build roads there.



A 1000 man US engineer battalion with an attached equipment company had more construction equipment than an entire German field army.

It's well known that the Germans couldn't keep up infrastructure with the advance of their armies. They never could in Russia.

[Kingfish]

A 1000 man US engineer battalion with an attached equipment company had more construction equipment than an entire German field army.

I would extend that to include a US SeaBee and entire Japanese army.

The allied advance up the Solomons chain proved that on a number of occasions.

[Keitel]

Yes it is. Here's a short synopsis...

November 3 1939: US lifts arms embargo and sells to Allied nations for cash. Germany denounces the move strongly.
October 3 1939: Declaration of Panama. US and Latin countries put America's off limits to belligerents, primarily Germany.
April 10 1940: US freezes Danish and Norwegian credit and funds in the US.
July 30 1940: Act of Havana. The US and Latin countries declare that any territory in the Western Hemisphere that becomes potentially held by unfriendly forces to its peacetime ownership is subject to being taken over and administered by the US etc. French Martinique for example gets occupied after France falls.
December 10 1940 Lend Lease begins
April 9 1941 Denmark's government in exile allows US occupation of Greenland. The German led Copenhagen government disavows the act but can do nothing.
May 21 1941 SS Robin Moor, US merchant shelled and sunk by U boat. Congress calls for reprisals. Major turning point in US - German relations to the negative.
June 14 1941 All German and Italian assets in US are frozen, along with other Axis controlled nations.
June 16 1941 All German and Italian consulates closed in the US
June 22 1941 US unfreezes Soviet / Russian assets in the US.
July 7 1941 US agrees to take over defense of Iceland. US Navy to escort merchants as far as Iceland now.
Nov 6 1941 US makes $1 in credit available to Russia for military purchases.
Sept 4 1941 USS Greer (destroyer) torpedoed after depth charging a U-boat.
Oct 9 1941 Congress weighs repealing Neutrality Act
Oct 17 1941 USS Kearny torpedoed in battle with U-boats.
Oct 27 1941, forward: Both US and Germany increasingly hostile rhetoric in speeches.
Oct 30 1941 USS Ruben James sunk by U-boat
Nov 13 1941 Neutrality Act repealed by Congress

It's very clear that Germany and the US were on the path to war regardless of what the Japanese did.

If we ignore the virulent anti-war movement in the US. Till Hitler declares war, FDR doesn't have the backing to jump in and the US public isn't enraged enough to fight Hitler. A majority were still of the opinion to let them kill each other.

Wrong. The Japanese were going to war regardless of whether they attacked Pearl Harbor or not. They had to take the PI out to ensure a safe route to the DEI and Malaysia by sea. They'd already occupied French Indonesia, and the US had occupied New Caledonia prior to going to war. Pearl Harbor made ZERO difference to the outcome of the Pacific War. All it did was piss the US off royally.

Actually it made all the difference by starting the war. US public is not enraged enough to go to war for Britain's Colonies. If the Japanese just ignore the PI and go straight in for the DEI and not waste time with the Pearl Harbor strike, there isn't much FDR can do.

Now you are changing history in an extremely speculative way. Japan could never draw off enough forces. The war in Europe is a land war, not a naval war. The Pacific was a naval war. Hitler declared war because he knew the US would do so even if he didn't. The US actions in the Atlantic and with things like Lend Lease pretty much were convincing evidence that the US was going to jump in on the Allied side at some point.

Half the US Military was deployed in the Pacific Theater for 1942-43, many of the units landing at Normandy cut their teeth here. The bulk of the USMC was deployed to the Pacific. Hell the bloodiest battles the US fought were in the Pacific and substantial forces needed in the ETO were tied down.

So yes Japan did draw off substantial forces. No German Declaration of War and no Japanese sneak attack means FDR can't jump in.

German construct engineers were almost totally non-mechanized. They had virtually no construction machinery assigned, as it simply didn't exist in any quantity in Germany at all. They were working almost entirely with hand tools. Even if they had some trucks to move the unit around, they wouldn't have the sort of machinery the US would have had and were by comparison unable to build the sort of infrastructure they really needed.
As for "30 of its Motorized Road Construction Battalions with ~ 1500 men each and with all the equipment needed to make asphalt roads and keep them functioning." Show me a source with this unit's TO&E listing the equipment they had.

How many asphalt plants? How many rock crushing plants? How many earth scrapers? How many road graders? How many dump trucks? How many road rollers? You can't build asphalt roads without that stuff unless you are taking years and doing it just a little a day with hand tools.

A 1000 man US engineer battalion with an attached equipment company had more construction equipment than an entire German field army.

It's well known that the Germans couldn't keep up infrastructure with the advance of their armies. They never could in Russia.

"Yawn" Same old tired nonsense and I gave you the source too.

Just in the Pioneer Companies assigned to Infantry Regiments, they had 9 large compressors, 20 power saws, and 6 welding sets for construction work and were noted for how quickly they could lay corduroy roads.

The separate road construction battalions had a minimum of 4 concrete mixers on 5 ton trailers pulled by four heavy trucks, 4 oil or steam powered rollers, and 2 five-ton with asphalt surfacing equipment pulled by a tractor. In just three months, they doubled the amount of supplies reaching the deployed divisions.That is what really matters more than what equipment they have.

Finally the Germans had an SDE value that was 4 times larger than the Soviets who really struggled to keep its forces supplied. The Germans also brought twice as many trucks as the Soviets did and their 495,800 trucks had 24 times the total lift capacity of all the Wehrmacht's horses. The Soviets were heavily dependent on horses and suffered more from the bad roads than the Germans did. As the Germans get closer to Moscow the more the roads improve.

So if the proposed Rommel Corps is committed and pushes off from Yelniya, the Soviets are fucked.