The netherlands in ww1

[princeliberty10311517]

I'm talking about the German right being able to reach the coast and thus reach the Aisne west of Paris.

[Terry Duncan]

Then you will need to find a way of adding about another entire army to the German right wing. There were never enough troops to reach the coast, Schlieffen's army in the 1905 memo was 50% larger than the actual army of the time - the 1914 army as only just getting close to it - and did not have any troops deployed in the east as it dealt with a single front deployment only against France. There are not enough troops to do this, even adding a last minute Dutch army will hardly help as there will be no plans or logistic arrangements.

Moltke studied the Paris problem in 1909-11, and it would appear rejected the entire concept as impossible - we do not have all the relevent papers, but what we have is impressive enough - as you would need about 500,000 more men, all supplied and able to march into France.

[princeliberty10311517]

I wasn't say they would take Paris. But by passing thru a friendly Holland they can bypass the Belgium forts -cut off the forts - reach the coast of Belgium and march along the coast from there.

But its unlikely they encircle and capture Paris. But they may reach the Asine and should get past the Somme at least.

[Terry Duncan]

I wasn't say they would take Paris.

No, you talked of reaching the coast, which would need more men than Paris to extend the German army that far. The saying about having the furthest man on the right brush the coast is pure hyperbole and not achievable by the 1914 German army unless they thinned out the line and rendered a French break through elsewhere possible by having done so.

But by passing thru a friendly Holland they can bypass the Belgium forts -cut off the forts - reach the coast of Belgium and march along the coast from there.

That is going to make either a huge gap between the armies or a very thin line to reach the distance, Liege to the sea is 104 miles and Mons to the sea is still 70 miles, so you are talking an entire extra army of men just to fill this gap. Germany simply does not have that many men.

But they may reach the Asine and should get past the Somme at least.

So they have lot the ability to use neutral Holland as a source of imports - that kills the entire plan for not invading Holland in the first place - and end up roughly where they really got to? A huge loss for very little gain.

[princeliberty10311517]

We're talking about some important territory over the long war of attrition.

Could tip the balance so Germany can take Paris after Russia falls and before America gets millions of troops to Europe.

It would have a huge effect of decisions regarding the big offensives like Somme - which would take place on different ground -

And Verdun.

[Terry Duncan]

We're talking about some important territory over the long war of attrition.

Where the Germans stood on the Aisne was about as good as defensive territory gets in this part of France.

Could tip the balance so Germany can take Paris after Russia falls and before America gets millions of troops to Europe.

It could also mean Germany having to stand on far less suitable ground and therefore suffering heavier casualties herself.

It would have a huge effect of decisions regarding the big offensives like Somme - which would take place on different ground -
And Verdun.

And the worst possible result for the Germans is that the Anglo-French armies stand on the defensive mostly, launching far less of the costly major efforts that failed from 1915 - 1917 and adopt the 'bite and hold' tactics first proposed in 1915 that were used in 1918 to great effect.

The cost of course is that Germany cannot import through Holland, and for the Dutch, a possible end to their status as a nation as we know it, having proven so untrustworthy as to not only renounce their neutrality enshrined in treaty, but to have also aided greatly in the violation of Belgium too. The Dutch were not stupid, and knew that they could not act as this scenario proposes.

[princeliberty10311517]

Germany having even more of France is liking to cause France to attack even more not less.

[Terry Duncan]

Not really. There will only be the same manpower - despite the strange ability of Germany to somehow have more men than she really did - and resourses, and they were what dictated the historical offensives.

[Lothar_1]

We should analyse it realistic to find out, what would have happened:

1) reason of helping the Central powers:
- After the Bure-war there was a anti-british feeling in the dutch population
- the dutch King had german roots
- there was never a dutch war befor WW1
- maybe a plan to annect the northern Belgium, because there the population has the same language, their were only katholix and the nederlands were calviniste

2) The Netherlands may have surprised the Allies (France, ..), but thei would have made contracts with Germiny at least 2 weeks befor the war.

3) With the supply of the Netherlands the German Army would have solved the most problems of the Schliefen Plan:

a) long distance: In reality the German Army had to walk long distances througt Belgium.
In this szenario they could have used trains to go to the dutch-belgique border and start there.
So they could havw reached the marne 2 days earlier and in a better condition. Also the logistig problema would have been less with shorter distances.

b) More soldiers: Even the nederlands did not have a big army, they would have been able 150.000 - 200.000 men.
That is comparable wit one additional Army. This troops would have marched on the right side of the German First Army or betrenn the first and the second.

Wherever the dutch army would appear, it would stay 1 mor army, and earlier than in reality. That means, when reaching the river Marne, the
BEF was not present yet.
This wold mean, the German/Dutch armies would have met the BEF somewhere deeper in France, and they were still stronger.

In case, the dutch army was near the coast, the BEF should have gone there too, to stop them.
But then the BEF cold not attack between the first ant the second German army.
This means, the German troops may not be stopped.



In my opinion, the Germans would have reached Paris. But then they would habe been stopped caused of the same reasond they were stopped
at the Marne in originat history.

In addition Graf Spee with his pacific fleet could have reacted different. He could have stayed in Indonesia, because it was a utch colonie.

[nuyt]

Interesting WI.

The Dutch Commander in Chief, general Snijders, IRL advised the NL government to join the Central Powers, from a military point of view. I am not aware of his deeper reasons and analysis, but he should have seen the advantage of doing so. That's an interesting line of thinking.

Yes it would have put Dutch trade at risk as well as connections to the colonies, but no one was counting on a four year war. A quick German victory over France was expected and envisaged by the Germans, so if the Dutch would join and march south together with them, they would be part of a victorious alliance and share in the spoils. From a military point of view I don' t think the Dutch Army would do well at the battlefield. It was not equipped for long expeditions outside of the country and too lightly armed. I think it would have been useful as an occupying force in Belgium and France.

But what would the NL hope to gain from this? Territorial expansion? Hmm, the Belgians and even the culturally close Flemish would not have enjoyed a Dutch annexation and would have resisted. And colony-wise, where could the Dutch ones have been expanded? There were no French colonies bordering the Dutch ones, except for penal colony French Guyana and the other half of St Martin island. Not much to gain there...

Colonial expansion for the Dutch could only come from British territories; Northern Borneo or Malaya, parts of which had been Dutch for a while, just like Ceylon. Mauritius perhaps. Another prize could be the restoration of the independent Boer Republics, that had drawn in a lot of Dutch investment and immigration. And Boers conspired IRL to restart the Boer War again: a small party, including a famous Boer General, entered the country from German South West, but the leader was killed instantly. All these prizes would be long shots for the Dutch, but more importantly they would require defeating Britain...not France.

But OK, for the sake of this WI, let's assume the Dutch join in. Dutch troops move south in the wake of the German Army and are assigned garrison duties in Belgium. The German Armies meanwhile reach the outskirts of Paris and French resistance collapses. Peace is made soon and Germany gets its rather modest demands of territories like Longwy and eastern parts of Belgian Congo (Katanga). Holland gets the rest of St Martin island and Belgian Limburg province, ceded in the nineteenth century after the breakup of the united Netherlands. UK is forced to accept the new status quo and everybody gets back to business in the west. No colonies are lost and trade resumes quickly...

Germany and the Netherlands start anticipating their next step: war with Britain... More about this tomorrow, stay tuned!

[nuyt]

With all of their colonies intact and even a bit expanded, Germany and the Netherlands become Allies after the short war in 1914. They know a new conflict is imminent and they start preparing jointly to secure their worldwide empires against a British and French threat. To consolidate their territorial alliance they approach Portugal, that is still reeling from the Ultimatum by Great Britain. The Brits had force the Portuguese to give up their aspirations in Africa (connecting Angola and Mozambique overland in present day Zambia) at gunpoint. The Royal Navy was sent to Lisbon and had threatened to bomb the city. Now in 1915, the Portuguese empire joins Germany and the Netherlands in a triple alliance that covers most of southern Africa and South East Asia. Meanwhile the Boers have regained their confidence and although an insurrections in 1914 was killed in the bud, they start to prepare a new one. Boer commandos are trained and armed in German South West Africa as well as Katanga as part of the local security forces. A small and professional Free Boer force is ready soon. The German and Dutch navies start building and expanding bases all around the world, from Cape Verde, Cameroon, SW Africa, Lourenco Marques, etc. A new huge base is built at Merak on Java, controlling various international maritime routes (a real Dutch plan from the 1920s). Meanwhile an economic pact is made between the three colonial empires, allowing free investments and trade as well as settlement. German industries are pouring into the NEI, some African ports and Angola, mining is further developed everywhere, roads and railroads are being rolled out all over southern Africa and trade is booming. The Brits get very worried...
To escape being locked in the North Sea by the Royal Navy, the Germans start talks with Norway to acquire/lease a huge naval base to be built in the fjords. When the deal is about to be signed, Great Britain mobilizes....will it go to war with the triple alliance?