4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

Discussions on alternate history, including events up to 20 years before today. Hosted by Terry Duncan.
Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#1

Post by Buchan » 05 Sep 2012, 17:04

At the start of 1941 on General Von Thoma's advice Hitler dispatches a 4 Division Panzer offensive force (the most the logistics of Libya can take Von Thoma inspection revealed) to Libya.
He was intending to send 1 Division as a blocking force and concentrate on the Soviet Union however it was decided that that finishing off the English was to good an opportunity to miss.
Barbarossa is instead postponed for a year.
I will do my following prediction of events in stages as im short of time right now.
The first I would predict the fall of all of Egypt by June/July 1941 which I will get to in more detail when I get back.

Any thoughts so far?

Alanmccoubrey
Member
Posts: 3370
Joined: 19 Sep 2008, 14:44

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#2

Post by Alanmccoubrey » 05 Sep 2012, 17:38

But that would have allowed Stalin to continue sorting his forces out and led to a Soviet invasion of Germany. I suppose you wouldn't mind that because it would allow Italy to buy the T34 from the Soviets for use against the British in North Africa.
Alan


Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#3

Post by Buchan » 05 Sep 2012, 17:41

Alanmccoubrey wrote:But that would have allowed Stalin to continue sorting his forces out and led to a Soviet invasion of Germany. I suppose you wouldn't mind that because it would allow Italy to buy the T34 from the Soviets for use against the British in North Africa.
:roll: .............
The serious point being the Soviets will have had more time to equip their forces with the T34.

User avatar
LWD
Member
Posts: 8618
Joined: 21 Sep 2005, 22:46
Location: Michigan

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#4

Post by LWD » 05 Sep 2012, 18:50

The fall of Egpt by mid 41 is unlikely. For one the British will be aware via Ultra of at least the scope of the German plans. They may reconsider the force to be sent to Greece and/or increase the forces sent to Egypt. Anit shipping efforts by the RN and RAF are likely to increase as well.

DarthMaur
Member
Posts: 129
Joined: 12 Oct 2002, 14:46
Location: Warsaw, Poland

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#5

Post by DarthMaur » 05 Sep 2012, 19:21

And frankly, it doesn't matter much. The middle east wasn't important region back then, oil was produced mostly in USA and Venezuela, so it wouldn't hinder Allies too much. It wouldn't help Axis either, since what was produced there couldn't be transported to the Europe. And the infrastructure and supply situation would mean it couldn't be used to stage any significant offensive against USSR in the Caucasus.

To sum it up, from economic value viewpoint, North Africa and Middle East was a non-entity.

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#6

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 01:10

LWD wrote:The fall of Egpt by mid 41 is unlikely. For one the British will be aware via Ultra of at least the scope of the German plans. They may reconsider the force to be sent to Greece and/or increase the forces sent to Egypt. Anit shipping efforts by the RN and RAF are likely to increase as well.
The anti-shipping activity could only do so much against overwhelming Axis air power with convoy escorts,

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#7

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 01:13

DarthMaur wrote:And frankly, it doesn't matter much. The middle east wasn't important region back then, oil was produced mostly in USA and Venezuela, so it wouldn't hinder Allies too much. It wouldn't help Axis either, since what was produced there couldn't be transported to the Europe. And the infrastructure and supply situation would mean it couldn't be used to stage any significant offensive against USSR in the Caucasus.

To sum it up, from economic value viewpoint, North Africa and Middle East was a non-entity.
There is Oil in Persia and Iraq and even some in Egypt.

The railways are good enough in Northern Turkey to get a decent size force in place for an attack in the Southern Caucasus.

But best of all would be Axis access to the Black sea which would greatly aid logistics and help cut off the likes of Odessa and the Crimea from Soviet shipping.

pugsville
Member
Posts: 1016
Joined: 17 Aug 2011, 05:40

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#8

Post by pugsville » 06 Sep 2012, 06:51

I dispute the Railways were good enough in Northern Turkey to support a strong enough force.

One long single track line can support how many divisions? (thats all there is!)
How many divisions are a reasonable force?

Germany was critically short of rolling stock. The Long supply line through turkey would require how many trains/rolling stock to support it and were would they come from?

The Soviets had a substantial Garrison against Turkey. The Terrain was not good. Why would a force supplied at great cost perform better attacking from Turkey than Poland?

Moving German forces to the Russian-Turkish Border would be hard to hide, and surely there was some level of German action that even Stalin could not ignore. A Major reason for the massive Early Success was surprise and Stalin's refusal to believe the Germans would invade, if this move gave up that major advantage surely it would not be worth it on this alone.

User avatar
Baltasar
Member
Posts: 4614
Joined: 21 Feb 2003, 16:56
Location: Germany

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#9

Post by Baltasar » 06 Sep 2012, 07:09

Turkey was neutral, allowing massive Axis movements would mean that it would become a target for both Russia and the Allies.

The UK was still ruling the Med. Having that kind of mechanised force abroad would mean that their spare parts, replacements, ammunition stocks etc would have to run the gaunlet. We do know how that turned out for the Italians. You'd most likely end up with the whole force running out of supplies rather quickly. The forces Rommel had at his disposal were streching things already, you're trying to squeeze in even more fuel consuming tanks. von Thoma based his estimate on uninterrupted supply flow, something which did not occur to him to be quite optimistic.

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#10

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 08:07

I dispute the Railways were good enough in Northern Turkey to support a strong enough force.

One long single track line can support how many divisions? (thats all there is!)
How many divisions are a reasonable force?
Sorry should have read Southern Turkey.
As with other countries, rapid expansion followed; by 1922 over 8000 km of lines had been constructed in the Ottoman Empire.At the birth of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, there were 3,660 km of standard gauge lines, of which 1,378 km were state-owned; while the lines owned by foreign investors were eventually nationalized starting from 1927. The railways were considered an essential part of the state by the government of the Republic, and continued to expand with new railway projects - over 3000 km of new tracks were built in Turkey between 1923 and 1940.
Railway in Northern Iraq too.
The Turks will have little problem moving German Divisions around.

The Soviets had a substantial Garrison against Turkey. The Terrain was not good. Why would a force supplied at great cost perform better attacking from Turkey than Poland?
It wouldnt perform any better but the strategic location is important.
Near the Soviets Oilfields and potential separatist states.
Moving German forces to the Russian-Turkish Border would be hard to hide, and surely there was some level of German action that even Stalin could not ignore. A Major reason for the massive Early Success was surprise and Stalin's refusal to believe the Germans would invade, if this move gave up that major advantage surely it would not be worth it on this alone.
Stalin will have to divert troops to the Caucasus.

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#11

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 08:11

Turkey was neutral, allowing massive Axis movements would mean that it would become a target for both Russia and the Allies.
At this point the USSR isnt in the war and Britain has no means to attack Turkey.
The UK was still ruling the Med. Having that kind of mechanised force abroad would mean that their spare parts, replacements, ammunition stocks etc would have to run the gaunlet.
With Axis airpower the Central Med will be firmly in Axis hands.
We do know how that turned out for the Italians. You'd most likely end up with the whole force running out of supplies rather quickly. The forces Rommel had at his disposal were streching things already, you're trying to squeeze in even more fuel consuming tanks. von Thoma based his estimate on uninterrupted supply flow, something which did not occur to him to be quite optimistic.
Von Thoma expected firm air cover too.
Besides did some one not post a link here showing for much of the time supply to Libya from Italy had little interference.

DarthMaur
Member
Posts: 129
Joined: 12 Oct 2002, 14:46
Location: Warsaw, Poland

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#12

Post by DarthMaur » 06 Sep 2012, 09:07

Buchan wrote:
DarthMaur wrote:And frankly, it doesn't matter much. The middle east wasn't important region back then, oil was produced mostly in USA and Venezuela, so it wouldn't hinder Allies too much. It wouldn't help Axis either, since what was produced there couldn't be transported to the Europe. And the infrastructure and supply situation would mean it couldn't be used to stage any significant offensive against USSR in the Caucasus.

To sum it up, from economic value viewpoint, North Africa and Middle East was a non-entity.
There is Oil in Persia and Iraq and even some in Egypt.

The railways are good enough in Northern Turkey to get a decent size force in place for an attack in the Southern Caucasus.

But best of all would be Axis access to the Black sea which would greatly aid logistics and help cut off the likes of Odessa and the Crimea from Soviet shipping.
Yes, and in Libya and in Algeria... but the Middle East oil production was barely starting at that time, which was what i said. And more importantly, that oil is going to stay there, because the Axis don't have means to either build up production there and can't move the drilled oil back to where it's needed in Europe anyway.

Eastern Turkey didn't have good infrastructure, and attacking Georgia in the opening stages of Barbarossa is pretty pointless (you won't get to Baku which is long way to go through poor terrain at the end of long poor supply line through Turkey, and you won't get through the mountains to the north either)

For Black Sea naval ops you need Italian fleet. Where are you going to get oil for that, specifically, what are you proposing to take the oil away from?

pugsville
Member
Posts: 1016
Joined: 17 Aug 2011, 05:40

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#13

Post by pugsville » 06 Sep 2012, 10:55

Erzernum to Kars was only completed in 1939. We are talking single line. Railing supplies from germany through the balkans, we are talking long railway haul. The Germans were critically short of rolling stock throughout the war. There is a definite limit to how large a force can be supplied over a single railway line with unlimited rolling stock. With the limitations , any rolling stock supporting this effort is subtracting from the German economy, less tanks, less planes, less munitions.

You want to run reasonable What Ifs pay attention to Logistics.

How many divsions would be needed to make good progress against the garrison

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcauca ... y_District

"On 22 June 1941 the District consisted of the 3rd (4th, 20th, and 47th Divisions), 23rd (136 and 138 Divisions) and 40th (9th and 31) Rifle Corps, the 28th Mechanised Corps, which included the 6th and 54th Tank Divisions and the 236th Motorised Division, five unattached divisions – the 63rd, 76th, and 77th Rifle, the 17th Mountain Cavalry and the 24th Cavalry, and three fortified regions"

15 divisons I make it.

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#14

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 13:04

Yes, and in Libya and in Algeria... but the Middle East oil production was barely starting at that time, which was what i said. And more importantly, that oil is going to stay there, because the Axis don't have means to either build up production there and can't move the drilled oil back to where it's needed in Europe anyway.
Im talking about the oil figures of the time in terms of production.
Eastern Turkey didn't have good infrastructure, and attacking Georgia in the opening stages of Barbarossa is pretty pointless (you won't get to Baku which is long way to go through poor terrain at the end of long poor supply line through Turkey, and you won't get through the mountains to the north either)
With the Southern Caucasus taken the Soviets will lose some industrial areas, some oil fields, others further north can be bombed, Soviet Fleet will be forces out into a Black Sea fight it cant win, Soviets will lose manpower in the Caucasus region while the Germans will gain manpower, the Soviets will have to move forces South, The British Empire will lose its greatest oilfields in the middle east.
By 1942 Case Blue will very likely now be a success.
For Black Sea naval ops you need Italian fleet. Where are you going to get oil for that, specifically, what are you proposing to take the oil away from?
Up till May 1942 the Axis powers will be using Soviet Oil, after that they will use their reserves for a time.
Egyptian oil can also be added.

Buchan
Banned
Posts: 378
Joined: 24 Aug 2012, 15:20

Re: 4 Panzer Division Africa Korps and Postponed Barbarossa

#15

Post by Buchan » 06 Sep 2012, 13:11

Erzernum to Kars was only completed in 1939. We are talking single line. Railing supplies from germany through the balkans, we are talking long railway haul. The Germans were critically short of rolling stock throughout the war. There is a definite limit to how large a force can be supplied over a single railway line with unlimited rolling stock. With the limitations , any rolling stock supporting this effort is subtracting from the German economy, less tanks, less planes, less munitions.

You want to run reasonable What Ifs pay attention to Logistics.
Logistics have been noted.
The Germans will have the rollings stock of most of Europe and Turkey in their hands.
The Soviet Union will not be attacked till May 42.
The Black Sea and Eastern Med can also be used for Axis shipping.
Air supply can be added.
Horse and Camel too.
Plus the Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi railways.
How many divsions would be needed to make good progress against the garrison

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcauca ... y_District

"On 22 June 1941 the District consisted of the 3rd (4th, 20th, and 47th Divisions), 23rd (136 and 138 Divisions) and 40th (9th and 31) Rifle Corps, the 28th Mechanised Corps, which included the 6th and 54th Tank Divisions and the 236th Motorised Division, five unattached divisions – the 63rd, 76th, and 77th Rifle, the 17th Mountain Cavalry and the 24th Cavalry, and three fortified regions"

15 divisons I make it.
The forces I had in mind were 3-4 German Armoured Divisions and 2-3 Italian Armoured Divisions.
Supported by around 8 Italian infantry Divisions, Alpini Divisions and the best of the Turkish forces.

Post Reply

Return to “What if”