300 Ju 89's during the Blitz

[BDV]

So, who is/are the brainiacs with the foresight and political weight to pull it off? And whynot Do19?

[phylo_roadking]

It was always going to be limited by the power output of the BMW 132...whatever version. And was also limited to a ~3,500lb bombload. It would never have amounted to anything much until at least the 139 engine appeared - and would have been long moribund by then.

It wasn't strategic bomber material, even in the comtemporary sense; it carried half the bombload of the AW Whitley, and was less than two-thirds its weight loaded. If it was anything - it was a medium bomber that happened to havebeen designed for four low-output engines instead of two high-output ones

(...which makes sense - Claude Dornier having specialised in individually relatively low-output but multi-engined designs (like the Do-X!) during the period when the German aero industry was limited in the capacity and power output of engines it could build. It was pretty standard Dornier fare in that sense.)

[Carl Schwamberger]

Just to wander off on a tangent. Hw would the likely speed of this 89, with the likely engines have served on maritime missions, away from fighter range? To put it another way how would the range & speed of this hypthetical Ju 89 compare to the FW200 used for maritime reconnisance/attack in1940-41 ?

[phylo_roadking]

Hw would the likely speed of this 89, with the likely engines have served on maritime missions, away from fighter range? To put it another way how would the range & speed of this hypthetical Ju 89 compare to the FW200 used for maritime reconnisance/attack in1940-41 ?

Well - the Condor was fractionally slower, giving away 20 mph or so...but had a greater range than the hypothetical Ju889 here, at 3,560 km/1,923 nmi/ 2,212 miles. It also had a larger bombload than the base starting point of the 1936/7 Ju89, at 4,300lbs...albeit demonstrating the difficulties of converting an airliner to a combat aircraft It had to carry ordnance "externally", in cells in the engine pods, as it hadn't been designed to carry it internally - and anyway, the fuselage was crammed with tankage! (The "gondola" affixed to "combat" versions DID have a very limited ordnance-carrying capability - but this was used to house a concrete "bomb" for calibrating the bombsight on departure for a recce.) It also had 5xdefensive gun positions...

And all done with 4x1,200hp engines (eventually) - but known issues with airframe strength, lack of armour etc....

Compromises, always compromises somewhere...in this case speed AND an ability to withstand attack

[stg 44]

Just to wander off on a tangent. Hw would the likely speed of this 89, with the likely engines have served on maritime missions, away from fighter range? To put it another way how would the range & speed of this hypthetical Ju 89 compare to the FW200 used for maritime reconnisance/attack in1940-41 ?

It would be heavier thanks to having a stronger structure and more armor, so won't be as vulnerable or prone to breaking up on landing or during hard maneuvering, but will have less range and potentially speed depending how much fuel and bombs it carries.

[phylo_roadking]

It would be heavier thanks to having a stronger structure and more armor, so won't be as vulnerable or prone to breaking up on landing or during hard maneuvering, but will have less range and potentially speed depending how much fuel and bombs it carries.

...and how much heavier it is empty. Which is something we can't know now

There's another problem though...1937 into 1938, with the problematical Ju89 prototypes only just flying and no strtetching of the design yet done for ANY of the above-listed imrpovements to make it a practical bomber...which gets the investment from the RLM? It....or the Condor that's busy flying the Atlantic already and grabbing all the newsreels and newpaper coverage???

The prototype "light" Ju89 wouldn't even have finished its full trials programme when Kurt Tank was already designing and building the Japanese Navy-ordered militarised Fw200!

[stg 44]

And we're talking about a redesigned fuselage with bigger bomb bay...and I haven't read that the Ju89 had that same problem, which would be rectified anyway with a redesigned bomb bay during development.

..except that's a pretty huge redesign. Question is - would the RLM/Luftwaffe take the time for that....

...or...ahem....just issue an new spec?

The Ju90 for instance received a whole new fuselage and was flying within months of the V1 Ju89 prototype. When the Ju90 was militarized and had to be modified, the V1 of the Ju90 militarized version was ready in 8 months. So redesigns on the Ju89 would be likely ready by December 1937 if the time frame for militarizing the Ju90 holds (historically it was ordered in April 1939 and ready in December 1939, while the Ju89 started testing in April 1937, which would mean if the changes were ordered by the end of April or during May the modified prototype would be ready in January 1938).

They were still very ineffective until May 1941 and then attacked exclusively from behind, especially when the slower Blenheim that couldn't catch up to German bombers was phased out.

Yes - aircraft like the Ju88 with a ~315mph top speed, the He111 with its 273mph top speed...NOT the Ju 89 with its 240mph top speed The Blenheim will be competitive against them from the off...

Not forgetting that the Beaufighter was entering service in September 1940...

Top speed didn't matter at night for the most part during the Blitz, rather it was cruise speed that mattered. The Blenheim was about 198mph, which would be slightly less than the Ju89. Both could sprint if necessary, i.e. one or the other saw the enemy, but given the very shitty AI radar, that wasn't a big concern.

The Beaufighter really wasn't present in numbers until 1941 and didn't really make an impact until April.

Look at the He111 for how the LW responded to the night fighter threat: they didn't use as many men for defensive armament as they did in the day 3-4 total crew instead of the 5 during daylight operations. So for whatever reason the Germans recognized that fewer defensive crew and arms were necessary relatively quickly.

...or because they were having to make some very pragmatic decisions about all-up weight vs. tankage/range...

Or both, which still works in the favor of the Ju89 for the Blitz.

Given the saturation of bombers over Britain, it would make sense that it was easier for the British to find a needle in the haystack when there were several hundred over a target at once.

I don't think you got the point I was making earlier about numbers available vs. numbers used on any night; if you have a TOTAL of 300 (only) then you're looking practically at maybe 100 max per night.

And 100 at 4 tons or so is 400 tons, which is more than many of the early raids during the Blitz alone. Could that with 'blockbusters' and have the lighter aircraft follow up with incendiaries and some more HE and the concentration in space and time for large fires like at Conventry become much more common and destructive.

The Ju89 is going to be used in the East for Barbarossa, no question, so by June the Blitz is over no matter what, but seeing as we are talking about the effect of having a specified number of bombers DURING the Blitz, it would make sense to talk about what would happen from October 1940- May 1941 rather than after.

My point was they've only nine months. Mostly over winter; there was a reason why the Blitz ended and didn't restart until the early Spring of 1941...

The Blitz slowed down in January and February, but it never stopped. It came back in March at a lower level than December, but still increased relative to the previous months.

Also using one Ju89 will replace the need to use two He111s or 3 Ju88A1s for targets like Liverpool. Even shorter ranged missions with extra external bombs would do as much as two or more two engine bombers.

Only if they do hit the target.

For the most part the LW in September-December were hitting their targets very well; even in April and May 1941 despite all of the 'beam bending' and jamming there were very heavy raids that hit repeatedly, for example the May raids on Liverpool.

Also with fewer aircraft over the target it makes it harder for night fighters to contact a bomber, which is more important in April and May 1941.

Remembering of course that flip side of that is more nightfighters in the air per number of bomber per night.

I think you're missing the point, even with the same number of night fighters and fewer bombers, its still less likely that they will find one because there are fewer targets; this isn't like daylight combat where fewer bombers to more fighters will increase losses.

It would be heavier thanks to having a stronger structure and more armor, so won't be as vulnerable or prone to breaking up on landing or during hard maneuvering, but will have less range and potentially speed depending how much fuel and bombs it carries.

...and how much heavier it is empty. Which is something we can't know now

There's another problem though...1937 into 1938, with the problematical Ju89 prototypes only just flying and no strtetching of the design yet done for ANY of the above-listed imrpovements to make it a practical bomber...which gets the investment from the RLM? It....or the Condor that's busy flying the Atlantic already and grabbing all the newsreels and newpaper coverage???

The prototype "light" Ju89 wouldn't even have finished its full trials programme when Kurt Tank was already designing and building the Japanese Navy-ordered militarised Fw200!

The Fw200 wasn't asked for by the RLM and was just offered to them in November 1939. Here the Ju89 could be on the radar of the Japanese too and potential developed as a 'light' naval version as well.

Also why do you think the Ju89 was 'problematic'? It was a fine design without aerodynamic flaws. Yes, it needed development, but that doesn't make it problematic. The Ju89 is a military aircraft and the RLM only took the Fw200, a civilian aircraft, because it was already on hand when the war broke out because the Japanese had ordered it. Here though the Fw200 would not even be on the radar of the RLM, as it never was historically, only in November 1939 when they needed something for the role of offensive naval recon bomber, which the Fw200 prototypes which were already sitting around were the only option for.
Having a structurally sound military aircraft will take precedent over the civilian foreign order, though the prototypes might still get used as pure recon aircraft without a bomb load.

[stg 44]

So, who is/are the brainiacs with the foresight and political weight to pull it off? And whynot Do19?

Probably this would be another Wever lives scenario, as this is the only way to keep the strategic bomber alive.
The Do19 was much smaller, shorter ranged, and required much more development than the Ju89.

[phylo_roadking]

The Do19 was much smaller, shorter ranged, and required much more development than the Ju89.

...not to get from where the Ju 89 "was" to where/what you want it to be! Whereas the Do 19 "only" needs the BMW 139 to arrive to make it competitive as a "medium heavy" at least...it was apparently designed for the two-row Bramo that was rolled into the 139 programme. Ergo...it would have had excess power far sooner than the Ju 89 would have had. The only problem being that historically it was abandoned too soon...and long before the 139 was ready.

The foresight to stay with the Ju 89 applied to the whole programme means the 19 is probably available first.

[stg 44]

The Do19 was much smaller, shorter ranged, and required much more development than the Ju89.

...not to get from where the Ju 89 "was" to where/what you want it to be! Whereas the Do 19 "only" needs the BMW 139 to arrive to make it competitive as a "medium heavy" at least...it was apparently designed for the two-row Bramo that was rolled into the 139 programme. Ergo...it would have had excess power far sooner than the Ju 89 would have had. The only problem being that historically it was abandoned too soon...and long before the 139 was ready.

The foresight to stay with the Ju 89 applied to the whole programme means the 19 is probably available first.

BMW 139? AFAIK it was never used and was just folded into the BMW 801 program, which wasn't fully functional until May 1942.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_801

Maybe you mean the BMW 132?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_132
Or the Bramo 323R?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bramo_323R

Of course if we want to get into the what ifs we can suggest that the DB603 isn't cancelled in 1937 so continues development and is therefore ready in 1941...

[phylo_roadking]

The Ju90 for instance received a whole new fuselage and was flying within months of the V1 Ju89 prototype. When the Ju90 was militarized and had to be modified, the V1 of the Ju90 militarized version was ready in 8 months. So redesigns on the Ju89 would be likely ready by December 1937 if the time frame for militarizing the Ju90 holds (historically it was ordered in April 1939 and ready in December 1939, while the Ju89 started testing in April 1937, which would mean if the changes were ordered by the end of April or during May the modified prototype would be ready in January 1938).

The Ju90 for instance received a whole new fuselage and was flying within months of the V1 Ju89 prototype

Because they could take major completed assemblies and mate them to a new fuselage. In your posit, the 89 would have to complete flight testing THEN be redesigned....unless its shortcomings become apparent very fast

However - you've forgotten something buried in there - the "militarised" Ju 90 was the Ju 90B...so your timescale, if based on that, has to depend on the development time to the Ju 90B taking to the air...

And of course, the "militarised" 90B was an armed transport aircraft...not a bomber - AND it depended on the BMW 801 being available. Your "re-design" has to be for an ordnance-carrying combat aircraft.

The Blitz slowed down in January and February, but it never stopped. It came back in March at a lower level than December, but still increased relative to the previous months.

If you're insisting on using WIKI for information - look closer at that entry on the Blitz...

In January and February 1941, Luftwaffe serviceability rates declined, until just 551 of 1,214 bombers were combat worthy.

...this is what I was talking about earlier - a less than 50% availability rate. Now...imagine of less than 50% of your 89s are available...

For the most part the LW in September-December were hitting their targets very well

But NOT enough to win the war, and NOT enough to satisfy any of Hitler's directives that pertained to aerial bombardment of the UK's ports and cities...

The Fw200 wasn't asked for by the RLM and was just offered to them in November 1939. Here the Ju89 could be on the radar of the Japanese too and potential developed as a 'light' naval version as well.

Ahem, there's somewhat of a difference between being "on the radar"....and one arriving in Japan as the Condor did in 1938! That's why the japanese ordered it...

Also why do you think the Ju89 was 'problematic'? It was a fine design without aerodynamic flaws. Yes, it needed development, but that doesn't make it problematic. .

Until ANY aircraft completes its testing regime and in this case demonstrates a potential for stretching the design way above what it was spec'd for orginally - ANY aircraft is "problematic". Just remember how far in advance of actual performance/specs of the historical Ju 89 prototypes your 1940 Ju 89 is...

[phylo_roadking]

BMW 139? AFAIK it was never used and was just folded into the BMW 801 program, which wasn't fully functional until May 1942.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_801

No, the 139. The Bramo was the intended fitting for the Do 19...but this development was folded into the BMW 139. Here, the 139's problems would have been fixed...

The main concern was providing cooling air over the cylinder heads, which generally required a very large opening at the front of the aircraft. Tank's solution for the BMW 139 was to use an engine-driven fan behind an oversized prop-spinner, blowing air past the engine cylinders, with some of it being drawn through S-shaped ducts over a radiator for oil cooling. However this system proved almost impossible to operate properly with the BMW 139; early prototypes of the Fw 190 demonstrated terrible cooling problems. Although the problems appeared to be fixable, since the engine was already fairly dated in terms of design, in 1938 BMW proposed an entirely new engine designed specifically for fan-cooling that could be brought to production quickly.

...because there's a design sitting waiting for it. Tank wouldn't be given the option as he was for the 801/Fw 190 hand-in-hand development. Once the Do 19A or B was introduced into early squadron service, and units forming around and training with it - later marks could carry the 801.

The Luftwaffe/RLM wasn't averse to getting new types into service and squadrons working up with naff engines in peacetime, after all...I.E. 1938 and 1939...IF the "original design" airframe had been spec'd for better...He 111 A to D? Early Do 17s?

[stg 44]

BMW 139? AFAIK it was never used and was just folded into the BMW 801 program, which wasn't fully functional until May 1942.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_801

No, the 139. The Bramo was the intended fitting for the Do 19...but this development was folded into the BMW 139. Here, the 139's problems would have been fixed...

The main concern was providing cooling air over the cylinder heads, which generally required a very large opening at the front of the aircraft. Tank's solution for the BMW 139 was to use an engine-driven fan behind an oversized prop-spinner, blowing air past the engine cylinders, with some of it being drawn through S-shaped ducts over a radiator for oil cooling. However this system proved almost impossible to operate properly with the BMW 139; early prototypes of the Fw 190 demonstrated terrible cooling problems. Although the problems appeared to be fixable, since the engine was already fairly dated in terms of design, in 1938 BMW proposed an entirely new engine designed specifically for fan-cooling that could be brought to production quickly.

...because there's a design sitting waiting for it. Tank wouldn't be given the option as he was for the 801/Fw 190 hand-in-hand development. Once the Do 19A or B was introduced into early squadron service, and units forming around and training with it - later marks could carry the 801.

The Luftwaffe/RLM wasn't averse to getting new types into service and squadrons working up with naff engines in peacetime, after all...I.E. 1938 and 1939...IF the "original design" airframe had been spec'd for better...He 111 A to D? Early Do 17s?

So if I read you right, you're suggesting that the Do19 would have been the preferred naval aircraft, once it had the right engine?

[phylo_roadking]

So if I read you right, you're suggesting that the Do19 would have been the preferred naval aircraft, once it had the right engine?

Eh/ Where have I used the word "naval" in discussing the Do 19???

No - I'm saying that to get a bomber out of the two "Ural Bomber" prototypes, the Do 19 was further along the road when cancelled than the Ju 89 was...and required an upgraded engine installation to bring it far closer to operational faster than your "ideal" Ju 89 would have; it flew first by seven months and was far further into testing that the 89 was.

At the time both were cancelled, it would have looked the more attractive, shorter time to operational option of the two. It would have given the Germans a (medium-)heavy bomber that could have reached any part of the mainland UK from North Germany...and in turn it too had the capacity for it's performance in a lot of areas to be stretched with an uprated engine installation - stretched just as fast at the Ju 89, but it was at least half a year behind the game already.

BDV - I know what I said earlier, but note the caveats now; to get to a fleet of Ju 89s over the UK in 1940...Gen. Wever has to not die, and the "Ural Bombers" NOT to be cancelled....two VERY major PODs. But if BOTH happen...and it HAS to be both!!!...the Do 19 has certain advantages over the 89 for coming into service sooner.

[stg 44]

It also seems that the V1 Ju89 first flew in December 1936, while the V2 was flew in early 1937. The V3 was due in early 1937 too, but it began the switch to the Ju90 on January 1st 1937. The project was cancelled on April 29th 1937 rather than the first flight occurring then.
So testing started in late 1936 for the basic version and would have been completed in IIRC about 3-6 months for the V1. The V3 would have been the first with defensive armament.