Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

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Gooner1
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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by Gooner1 » 19 Feb 2013 17:25

ljadw wrote: Was this assumption wrong ?
An unwritten assumption and, of course, the assumption was not wrong for Chamberlain. He got the answer he wanted to hear. :roll:

In the real world just the mobilisation of the Polish army would be enough to stop the Germans.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 19 Feb 2013 18:14

I rather expected this thread to wander off in this direction, picking over the details of the Munich crisis. Watching the usual suspects tie themselves in knots over incomplete informations and complex interpretations. I am guessing from the discussion here the scholarship on the Czech crisis has not moved much beyond that of the 1970s. Perhaps someone here can point to something written since 1978? Which hopefully has significant new information for the English language literature.

A few questions notparticulary pursuing one direction or another:
ljadw wrote:Yes,there were persons convinced that what /if B+F would do;it would not stop the Germans to conquer CZ,and these people were the British chiefs of staff:

march 28 1938:

No pressure that we and our possible allies can bring to bear,either by sea,on land and in the air,could prevent Germany from invading and overrunning Bohemia and from inflicting a decisive defeat on the Czechoslovakian army.We should then be faced with the necessity of undertaking a war against Germany for the purpose of restoring Czechoslovakia's lost integrity and this object would only be achieved by the defeat of Germany and as the outcome of a prolonged struggle.

Source:Munich's lessons reconsidered P 183 Note 92
This was a summary of the opinions of the Brit CoS, & while I understand their PoV of the British military situation it is difficult to attach much weight as a accurate view of the French. What information I have on my shelf concerning the strength of the mobilized French army, its mobilization schedule, and how far mobilization had progressed by 25-30 September suggests the Brit CoS view of "our allies" needs verification. That is something more than the usual remarks I see concerning the French plans.

I expect the same would be useful for the German side as well. How complete were the 'fortifications' on the French frontier, how many combat ready divisions and corps artillery/engineer units there were, ect...
Gooner1 wrote:
ljadw wrote: The frontiers of the new CZ did not change in 1939,what happened was that Czechia was occupied by the Germans,and,as the Czechs did not fight,why should B+F fight ?
?! Slovakia declared independence before Germany invaded Czech(land?) in March 1939. Therefore the borders Britain and France pledged to guarantee were invalid, therefore the pledge was no longer valid.
By March 1939 the Czech army was significantly weaker, having lost much of its manpower & equipment. To say the the new border with Germany was difficult to defend is a under statement. Also as I understand the Wehrmacht had competed the establishment of a base of operations in Austria for air and ground ops, something that was incomplete in September 1938. Drawing any conclusions about Czech decisions in September 1938 from their situation in March seems to me to be a bit silly.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 18:43

The mobilization of the French army does not mean an all out French offensive :see what happened in september 1939.

There are also 2 other points :

France was not obliged to fight if Hitler attacked CZ

France never had given any promise to CZ to fight .

In september 1939,the military situation on the western front was that there was no numerical French superiority,and,I don't see why the situation would be different in october 1938.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 18:46

Gooner1 wrote:
ljadw wrote: Was this assumption wrong ?
An unwritten assumption and, of course, the assumption was not wrong for Chamberlain. He got the answer he wanted to hear. :roll:

In the real world just the mobilisation of the Polish army would be enough to stop the Germans.
And,what would be the % of possibility of a Polish mobilisation in the real world ?

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 19:03

About the French and British guarantee of the borders of the new CZ:

1)Why were they guaranteeing these borders ? Was it to prevent a German annexation? Or was it to prevent an annexation by Hungary ?

2)Again,sigh,:these guarantees would take effect,NOT if some one would violate these borders,but,if the Czechs would fight .As the Czechs/Slovaks,Ukrainians (Ruthenia) did not fight against the Germans/the Hungarians,there was no need,no reason for Britain /France to intervene .

If tomorrow,NKorea is invading SKorea,and,there is no opposition from SKorea,no one is willing to die for his country,would the US president intervene and send US soldiers to die in S Korea ?
The answer is obvious : NO
It was the same in 1938/1939 :
The Anschluss :no opposition from Austria,thus no reason for B+F to intervene
Sudetenland :idem
Prague :idem
Danzig : Poland was fighting back,thus FORCING an unwillingly B+F to intervene ;

I repeat :the decision of war/peace did not depend on Britain/France(these were not the rulers of Europe) but on the states of Central and Eastern Europe .
If the SU had attacked Finland before september 1939,it is very likely that Britain and France would have intervened .

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by wm » 19 Feb 2013 19:05

ljadw wrote:What the government in exile declared afterwards,is irrelevant :relevant is what the PM of CZ said in 1938.
It means that Hodža, behind the Czechoslovakian Government back and against wishes of his people conspired with Britain and France to deny Czechoslovakia any chance of defense, and he did it under pressure from those hostile, at that time, Governments.

If he didn't do that it wouldn't change a thing, actually France and "perfidious" Albion didn't need any advice from a naive and obscure East European politician, left to their own devices they would manage just fine on their own and force their will on Czechoslovakia, after all they were well versed in power politics.

In the end because Britain, France and Germany were hostile towards Czechoslovakia only a disagreement between those countries could save Czechoslovakia and Britain/France were ready to go the extra mile to prevent that.

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Post by BDV » 19 Feb 2013 20:40

As the Czechs/Slovaks,Ukrainians (Ruthenia) did not fight against the Germans/the Hungarians,there was no need,no reason for Britain /France to intervene .
I distinctly remember Hungary hastening to apply some military slapping to the Slovaks.
Nobody expects the Fallschirm! Our chief weapon is surprise; surprise and fear; fear and surprise. Our 2 weapons are fear and surprise; and ruthless efficiency. Our *3* weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency; and almost fanatical devotion

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 20:50

wm wrote:
ljadw wrote:What the government in exile declared afterwards,is irrelevant :relevant is what the PM of CZ said in 1938.
It means that Hodža, behind the Czechoslovakian Government back and against wishes of his people conspired with Britain and France to deny Czechoslovakia any chance of defense, and he did it under pressure from those hostile, at that time, Governments.

If he didn't do that it wouldn't change a thing, actually France and "perfidious" Albion didn't need any advice from a naive and obscure East European politician, left to their own devices they would manage just fine on their own and force their will on Czechoslovakia, after all they were well versed in power politics.

In the end because Britain, France and Germany were hostile towards Czechoslovakia only a disagreement between those countries could save Czechoslovakia and Britain/France were ready to go the extra mile to prevent that.
Britain was not perfidious,and Britain and France were not hostile to CZ:they only were not willing to be the flunkeys of Prague.
Why would what would happen to CZ/Poland ,be the business of Britain ?

Chamberlain was not the PM of CZ,or of Poland .

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by Carl Schwamberger » 19 Feb 2013 20:55

ljadw wrote:The mobilization of the French army does not mean an all out French offensive :see what happened in september 1939.
And neither do your arguments indicate it would not. I dont think you comprehend just how weak your arguments in this thread read.

ljadw wrote:In september 1939,the military situation on the western front was that there was no numerical French superiority,and,I don't see why the situation would be different in october 1938.
It is statements like this that are so weak. As if you were drawing from the History Channel of something for information.

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

ljadw
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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

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Re: Retrospective WI. Cezch War of 1938

Post by ljadw » 19 Feb 2013 21:32

These are not drawed from the HCH,but from the AHF. :x

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