It depends, Germany would have had a solid oil supply in Iraq, and in Turkey a means to deny the USSR 90% of its oil production, that means those Russians tanks cant really move even if you can make them.toque wrote:Even if Germany wins in the summer of 1942, I ask ... what then?
They had made no significant provision for the winter of 1942-43. Even if the regular Russian army had been destroyed, serious losses of men and materiel would continue.
If they can beat the Read Army that is it, the Nazis plan for Russia was nothing short of mass genocide, we get too much holocaust movies that it blocks the fact that the Rusians simply had it much worse, they would be starved or shot to death which is why the Germans never made any serious effort towards using Soviet minorities against the red state.I am also inclined to doubt that the vast insurgency in the German rear areas would abate. I see that as going on for years, so the supply situation is not going to be good.
I dont even think the Germans would get very far, as it was B1941 was an oddity made possible by Stalin's own wish to placate the Germans, that is one of the main reasons why the Germans were so succesful. I would expect the fight to bog down around the original Stalin line.As the Russian winter comes on very quickly, I don't see a speedy withdrawal (in whole or in part), to more agreeable climes as being feasible either, even assuming that was what they would try to do.
The Germans gave it no thought at all, it was a gamble as all the other German offensives, this one relied on the Soviets crumbling on their own within 500Km of the border, if they didnt, the Germans were screwed, which is why you had Germans official killing themselves late in 1941, they knew they were doomed, their own calculations projected them running out of critical supplies by the end of the year.So what are they going to do? It is difficult to see how the Germans can go, and how they can stay.
Was the German High Command intending to accept further losses in order to get through to the Summer of 1943, when they could begin moving again?
Or had they simply given the subject no thought whatsoever?
The only surprise is that the war lasted 3 more years.
Their only shot IMHO is to kill Soviet oil, their military AND agriculture depended on it, cut it off and the Russians would die very, very fast if not resupplied, that means to also close Vladivostok and Murmansk, otherwise Germany hasnt got a prayer.