What if Japan attacked the ussr?

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azzkikr241
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What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by azzkikr241 » 08 May 2003 21:32

What do you think would've happend if japan attacked the USSR like it said it would. Do you think the soviets would crush them?

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Sam H.
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Post by Sam H. » 08 May 2003 21:48

I assume you are referring to Japan attacking the USSR in support of the Germany offensive operations in 1941.

I believe that if Japan had turned its army against the Red Army in August 1941, at the hieght of the German offensive operations, that this action, coupled with a German offensive on Moscow may very well have led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately for Japan, this would not give her much aid. Siberia is a difficult area to conduct operations in, and no doubt the Japanese would suffer grievous losses for minimal gains. And Japan would not then be in a position to pull off its magnificent victories of December 1942 through early 1942.

So, I guess I am saying that Hitler could gain a lot by this, but that Japan may not gain anything, in fact, it could end up in a worse position.

azzkikr241
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Post by azzkikr241 » 08 May 2003 22:29

I have to totally agree with you on this. Plain and Simple, the Japanese didnt have good enough tanks and or equipment, an ex. would be their 47mm anti tank gun which didnt even penetrate a Sherman. The Germans would def. gain an Offensive Ability. Dont Forget the Russians Counter Offensive during the Winter of 1942-43 was largely compromised of units along the asian borders of Manchuria. The USSR, I think, Would have def. Collapsed.

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Gen. Erwin Rommel
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Post by Gen. Erwin Rommel » 08 May 2003 23:18

If Japan Attacked USSR in 1941 that would mean the defeat of USSR.

The Russians would be unable to move the Siberian Divisions to save Moscow. Siberia was not a safe place for their industry, and they were forced to figth in 2 fronts, and it is true that the Japanese may got large cassulties, for a short advance, but with the defeat of Soviet Union in Spring or Summer 1942 Germany and Japan would have a lot of Resorces, i think Japan would be allowed to Anex some parts of Siberia, and there is another interesting point, Germany developed very sofisticated weapons in response to the soviet weapons, like Panther, the same thing would happend with the Japanese.

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Phil D.
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Post by Phil D. » 09 May 2003 01:01

Well, I think that since the Russians defeated Japan at Nomohan in 1939, I think that the Japanese invasion, at best, could be considered only a minor diversion. Of course, it could depend on how long Japan can hold out in the USSR.

Phil

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megjur
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Post by megjur » 09 May 2003 01:37

I think the Japanese attack would have led to the collaps of the USSR. The Japanese may not gain much, and might even have been beaten but the Russians would have had to commit precious resources to defend Siberia thus allowing the Germans to have an advantage. I think if Russia collapsed the Japanese would gain an advantage with the freeing up of the Kwantug army to conduct offensive operations towards China and the south and not having to be concerned with Russian invasion. Regarding the inferior Japanese armor, I doubt that the Russians would have been able to commit many T-34's to the far east, so their superiority would be limited, and Japan would have command of the air.

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Post by Killjoy A » 09 May 2003 05:35

Gen. Erwin Rommel wrote:If Japan Attacked USSR in 1941 that would mean the defeat of USSR.
Germany developed very sofisticated weapons in response to the soviet weapons, like Panther, the same thing would happend with the Japanese.
But they didn't... even though they did...

The Japanese did face the best the Russians had to offer during their brief clash in the middle of "nowheresgrad". They learned one thing: Stay out of Russia
They did not alter the composition of their forces to reflect anything experienced fighting the Soviet Red Army.
Were they to attack again, I would expect they would receive a similar trouncing, especially without having improved their armor/anti-armor assets.
This accomplished easily before the winter of '41, when they can still be rail transported to Western Russia to take part in the same attack against the Germans they actually took part in... ...A little worse for wear than they would have arrived without having to fight the Japanese, but also now at least blooded by battle with the Japanese.

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megjur
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Post by megjur » 11 May 2003 06:30

I think I let my anti_Soviet bias taint my initial opinion. Further research shows that the Soviets maintained 19 reserve divisions, 1200 tanks and 1000 aircraft in Mongolia AFTER moving divisions to Moscow to fight the Germans. A Japanese attack may not have had the impact I had thought. The only difference between a Japanese attack in 1939 and 1941 would be the superiority of Japanese airpower in 1941 compared to the Russian far east forces which would still be using I-152's and I-16's against Oscars and Ki-27's.

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Post by Killjoy A » 11 May 2003 06:39

A good point, but the Japanese didn't use their air assets like the Germans, and later the Russians...
The Japanese had no Stukas, no Sturmoviks.
It remains to be debated as to whether or not the medium bombers in their inventory could have been used as innovatively as the Ju-87 was, or for that matter, the Henschel-built antitank aircraft...

Also... I know its an ethno-centrist thought, but its tough *not* to have anti-Soviet bias, IMHO...(I emphasize: anti-Soviet)
I mean, to me they appear at times to be no more than "that other tyranny" that got away with murder (millions, in fact) simply because they were not Nazi Germany...
America for one was staunchly anti-communist until the Alliance, when suddenly propoganda films depicted Heroic Russian Peasants Battling Vile Nazism...
What? The Gulags weren't vile???

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Re: What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by Cantankerous » 13 Feb 2021 03:57

A Japanese attack on the USSR, especially Siberia, would have led Japanese troops to free so many labor camp inmates from the GULAG, and it would have given the Japanese access to natural gas reserves in the Russian Far East.

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T. A. Gardner
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Re: What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by T. A. Gardner » 13 Feb 2021 04:15

There are numerous previous threads that show pretty much conclusively that the Japanese get smashed doing this, followed by the US, Britain, etc., embargoing them wrecking their economy, and then the Soviets overrunning much of Manchukuo resulting in a massive Japanese defeat.

Do peruse those older threads.

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Re: What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by KDF33 » 13 Feb 2021 04:34

That's a lot of thread necromancy in a very short period of time.

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TheMarcksPlan
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Re: What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by TheMarcksPlan » 13 Feb 2021 05:12

KDF33 wrote:That's a lot of thread necromancy in a very short period of time.
Remarkable. Like there's an extra tan in the name.
T.A. Gardner wrote:There are numerous previous threads that show pretty much conclusively that the Japanese get smashed doing this
Those willing to extend their intellectual horizons beyond the consensus of AHF's bored retirees into, say, actual scholarship, may want to consider the views of the preeminent scholar on Japanese-Russian land warfare - Alvin D. Coox. His 1,200-page Nomonhan: Japan against Russia, 1939 is the definitive work on the prospective opposing forces. It's out of print apparently but copies can be bought used online for a decent-ish price (or new for $919 https://www.amazon.com/Nomonhan-Japan-A ... 2MTFZYWYTS). It also contains details on Kantokuen, Japan's post-Barbarossa buildup for a strike on the SU. Many of these details are cited in the wikipedia article and I confirm the accuracy of those cites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantokuen

Professor Coox gave a recorded university lecture in which he directly addressed the counterfactual, stating emphatically that he believed Japan launching Katokuen would have caused the SU's collapse. That talk is contained in his The Unfought War: Japan, 1941-1942.
https://medium.com/counterfactualww2
"The whole question of whether we win or lose the war depends on the Russians." - FDR, June 1942

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Terry Duncan
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Re: What if Japan attacked the ussr?

Post by Terry Duncan » 13 Feb 2021 12:37

This topic does not comply with the guidelines for what constitutes a suitable What If scenario, has made little effort to do so, and so is locked.

T Duncan

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