You Are (Hypotheticaly) Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany in 1888: What Exactly Do You Do?

[Futurist]

Here is an interesting Alternate History scenario:

Imagine that you are Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany in 1888, shortly after coming to power there (and Yes, unfortunately you still have a crippled arm). Your goal in this scenario is to try hard to pursue policies which will benefit Germany (morality be damned!) during the 50+ years of life which you have remaining at that point in time. What exactly would you do?

As for me, I would:

*Postpone my father Frederick III's plans to implement greater democracy in Germany for the time being in order to significantly decrease the odds of a conservative coup occurring against me.
*Immediately seek a limited rapprochement with France for the time being, with an eventual full rapprochement in France (which might very well include giving some or all of Alsace-Lorraine back to France) when the time for this will be appropriate (if ever, that is).
*Renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia in 1890 and possibly beyond as well.
*Subtly encourage some/many French and/or Russian Jews to immigrate to Germany in the hope that many of these Jews and/or their descendants will eventually help Germany.
*Approve some naval expansion for prestige reasons, but not nearly as much as in real life to avoid antagonizing Britain and to ensure that Germany would have more money to spend on its army, and later, on its air force as well.
*Seek an alliance with Britain (and, if possible, with the Ottoman Empire and/or Japan as well) and be willing to wait for a couple of decades if necessary.
*Avoid being a blundering and/or confrontational buffoon.
*Try encouraging the German military to focus a lot on strategic planning instead of only on tactics (I seriously doubt that I will be very successful in this regard, though) and to make preparations for a long war as well, rather than only for a short war.
*Spark a war with Russia (and, if necessary, with France as well) sooner rather than later in order to increase the odds of a German victory in this war. After all, without a war, Russia is eventually going to significantly dominate Europe; thus, Germany needs to "take Russia downa notch" beforehand as well as to acquire some living space in the Baltics (after all, I certainly want to increase Germany's population carrying capacity). Plus, this war can be portrayed as being a war in favor of national self-determination due to the fact that Germany will seek to free many non-Russian peoples from Russian rule.
*Try very hard to prevent Hindenburg and/or Ludendorff from ever taking too much power into their own hands during this TL's WWI.
*Frequently visit the German troops on the front lines during this TL's WWI in an effort to boost morale and to keep my own reputation high.
*After this TL's WWI, if Germany is victorious in it, then offer to help the German Social Democrats establish a British-style constitutional monarchy in Germany in exchange for having the Social Democrats agree to keep most of Germany's territorial gains in this TL's WWI after/if they succeed in modifying Germany's political system. This will probably cause German conservatives to (eventually) try launching a coup against me; thus, I myself will need to take great preparations to try my best to ensure that such a coup will not be successful.

*Early 1940s: Once I (as Kaiser Wilhelm II) will die, I will hopefully be remembered by many/most Germans as one of the best German leaders ever.

Thoughts on all of this?

[Futurist]

Also, this data helps explain why exactly I would be so eager to eventually spark a war with Russia in this scenario:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... on_in_1907

Unless Russia gets stripped of a lot of its territory and especially population right now, Russia's overwhelming population and demographic advantage over Germany will ensure that Russia, rather than Germany, will eventually become the dominant power in Europe.

[Futurist]

Anyone?

[stg 44]

Assuming I'm the same me with hindsight in his body I would hope I actually speak German. I'd step back and let my foreign department handle diplomacy and keep my mouth shut about foreign policy issues. I would also fund a more defensive military that isn't parade ground based, scrap whatever iteration of the Schlieffen Plan there was, and ensure 1914 doesn't come to war and work on my diplomacy with Britain. I'd also avoid stupid spats like the one with the Czar of Bulgaria that prevented a military contract with that nation and a potential alliance. I'd try and ensure FF survives Sarajevo by telling him not to go. Really I'd do whatever possible to ensure there is not a European war and not try and expand the colonial system, but keep up investments with the Ottomans and planning for the day when colonialism starts to die off.

[Futurist]

Assuming I'm the same me with hindsight in his body I would hope I actually speak German.

Yes, you certainly would--fluently, in fact!

I'd step back and let my foreign department handle diplomacy and keep my mouth shut about foreign policy issues.

OK.

I would also fund a more defensive military that isn't parade ground based,

OK. Also, though, what about German naval expansion? Would you support that but do it in a less provocative way? Or would you completely oppose that?

scrap whatever iteration of the Schlieffen Plan there was,

What exactly would you replace the Schlieffen Plan with, though? Moltke the Elder's plan for a defensive position in the West and a limited offensive (presumably followed by a defensive position) in the East?

and ensure 1914 doesn't come to war and work on my diplomacy with Britain.

OK. Also, though, here is what I would be concerned about--if war doesn't come in 1914, then could it come (due to French and/or Russian actions) at a later point in time when a war will be less favorable for Germany (such as in 1917, in 1925, or in 1935)? If so, then wouldn't it make sense for you to discreetly try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later (which, for the record, is essentially what Germany did in 1914 in real life)?

I'd also avoid stupid spats like the one with the Czar of Bulgaria that prevented a military contract with that nation and a potential alliance.

Care to please elaborate on this part?

I'd try and ensure FF survives Sarajevo by telling him not to go.

Couldn't a surviving Franz Ferdinand ironically lead to more problems, though? After all, couldn't the Ausgleich collapse in 1916 or 1917 and thus result in a general European war occurring during this time?

Really I'd do whatever possible to ensure there is not a European war and not try and expand the colonial system, but keep up investments with the Ottomans and planning for the day when colonialism starts to die off.

OK. However, what about if France and/or Russia insist on sparking a war with Germany at some future point in time? Indeed, couldn't this possibility compel you to try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later?

[stg 44]

OK. Also, though, what about German naval expansion? Would you support that but do it in a less provocative way? Or would you completely oppose that?

It was too much of a popular public program to have any influence on; the naval league lobbied the Reichstag to make it happen, so it was just something you have to sit back and allow and try and manage the political fallout.

What exactly would you replace the Schlieffen Plan with, though? Moltke the Elder's plan for a defensive position in the West and a limited offensive (presumably followed by a defensive position) in the East?

Yeah probably. I'd go with the proposed plan to build up the engineer and artillery corps and create a West Wall in A-L. The Kaiser was for it until his personal military adviser talked him out of it in 1903 (or so, I forget the right date). IIRC it was von der Goltz's plan. Actually I'd listen to von der Goltz about a lot of stuff from 1900 on because it was right about tons of stuff.

OK. Also, though, here is what I would be concerned about--if war doesn't come in 1914, then could it come (due to French and/or Russian actions) at a later point in time when a war will be less favorable for Germany (such as in 1917, in 1925, or in 1935)? If so, then wouldn't it make sense for you to discreetly try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later (which, for the record, is essentially what Germany did in 1914 in real life)?

Well I am armed with the knowledge that the Anglo-Russia treaty would likely not be renewed in 1915 and if the Franco-Russians start a war Britain would join Germany after that because Russia was a bigger threat than Germany in that case. Even with Russian military expansion Germany can't lose with Britain onside because they'd keep the US out, bring their navy and finances to the table, and blockade France. I'd focus on building up the air force and army, especially truck production because of how critical that was given that horse transport was pretty much topped out. I'd also push agricultural tractor production to replace farm labor and work toward breaking up big plantations in favor of a Flurbereinigung style plan.

Care to please elaborate on this part?

Apparently the Czar was looking out the window and Wlly thought it would be funny to smack his ass. The Czar was not happy, Willy refused to apologize, and the Czar went home and cancelled the military contract with Krupp, which was part of a military diplomacy effort, and worked out a deal with Schneider in France instead and set back relations with Germany quite a bit. Had that not happened Bulgaria might have been drawn to the CPs and joined in in 1914 to invade Serbia instead of over 1 year later. If there was no war then having Bulgaria as a potential ally against Serbia and Romania would be pretty helpful.

Couldn't a surviving Franz Ferdinand ironically lead to more problems, though? After all, couldn't the Ausgleich collapse in 1916 or 1917 and thus result in a general European war occurring during this time?

Probably not; they had Plan U to coup the Hungarian Parliament if they resisted the new monarch; last time the Magyar nobles got uppity they threatened to unleash the plan and they backed down immediately. If they get too confident they'd find out that the Honved wouldn't save them. In fact that let's FF reform the Hungarian consititution and breaks the power of the Maygar nobles, which means many of the military funding problems go away and Hungary gets a lot more politically free to spend on building up their economy and working with Austria when the nobles weren't calling the shots and using the entire country as their playground (they leveed taxes on peasants that even in 1914 were required to be paid in unpaid labor working on projects the parliament wanted, which generally benefited the nobility. There is a reason there was a successful communist revolution in 1918).

OK. However, what about if France and/or Russia insist on sparking a war with Germany at some future point in time? Indeed, couldn't this possibility compel you to try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later?

No, not with hindsight. Without hindsight sure, but we know that Britain was falling out with the Entente and wouldn't tolerate them starting the war so would probably come on Germany's side to stop them. Russian military build up scared Britain too, not just Germany. Also its unlikely France would accept a war of aggression from Russia, their alliance was defensive; Germany not starting a war likely means Russia goes it alone and it would not win that sort of war, especially with a hostile Britain against Russia and keeping France of Germany's back.

[Futurist]

OK. Also, though, what about German naval expansion? Would you support that but do it in a less provocative way? Or would you completely oppose that?

It was too much of a popular public program to have any influence on; the naval league lobbied the Reichstag to make it happen, so it was just something you have to sit back and allow and try and manage the political fallout.

Can you try reducing the power and/or influence of the Naval League, though?

What exactly would you replace the Schlieffen Plan with, though? Moltke the Elder's plan for a defensive position in the West and a limited offensive (presumably followed by a defensive position) in the East?

Yeah probably. I'd go with the proposed plan to build up the engineer and artillery corps and create a West Wall in A-L. The Kaiser was for it until his personal military adviser talked him out of it in 1903 (or so, I forget the right date). IIRC it was von der Goltz's plan. Actually I'd listen to von der Goltz about a lot of stuff from 1900 on because it was right about tons of stuff.

Who exactly was Kaiser Wilhelm II's personal military adviser in 1903 (or whenever this occurred), though?

Also, wouldn't it make sense to extend this West Wall all of the way north to the Atlantic Ocean so that France wouldn't be able to invade Germany through the Low Countries?

OK. Also, though, here is what I would be concerned about--if war doesn't come in 1914, then could it come (due to French and/or Russian actions) at a later point in time when a war will be less favorable for Germany (such as in 1917, in 1925, or in 1935)? If so, then wouldn't it make sense for you to discreetly try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later (which, for the record, is essentially what Germany did in 1914 in real life)?

Well I am armed with the knowledge that the Anglo-Russia treaty would likely not be renewed in 1915 and if the Franco-Russians start a war Britain would join Germany after that because Russia was a bigger threat than Germany in that case. Even with Russian military expansion Germany can't lose with Britain onside because they'd keep the US out, bring their navy and finances to the table, and blockade France.

What about the Anglo-French Entente Cordiale, though? When exactly was the Entente Cordiale scheduled for renewal/expiration?

Also, if Germany performs better than expected in a war with France and Russia (which is probably likely due to the overestimation of Russia's military power), couldn't this convince Britain not to make a large-scale troop commitment to help Germany in this war? After all, if it looks like Germany is capable of defending itself from France and Russia without much British help, then why exactly should Britain send a lot of its own troops to help Germany in such a war?

I'd focus on building up the air force and army, especially truck production because of how critical that was given that horse transport was pretty much topped out. I'd also push agricultural tractor production to replace farm labor and work toward breaking up big plantations in favor of a Flurbereinigung style plan.

Sounds very nice and impressive! Indeed, I would probably completely agree with all of this!

Care to please elaborate on this part?

Apparently the Czar was looking out the window and Wlly thought it would be funny to smack his ass. The Czar was not happy, Willy refused to apologize, and the Czar went home and cancelled the military contract with Krupp, which was part of a military diplomacy effort, and worked out a deal with Schneider in France instead and set back relations with Germany quite a bit. Had that not happened Bulgaria might have been drawn to the CPs and joined in in 1914 to invade Serbia instead of over 1 year later. If there was no war then having Bulgaria as a potential ally against Serbia and Romania would be pretty helpful.

Thanks for sharing this information! Also, though, out of curiosity--when exactly did his ass-smacking incident occur?

Couldn't a surviving Franz Ferdinand ironically lead to more problems, though? After all, couldn't the Ausgleich collapse in 1916 or 1917 and thus result in a general European war occurring during this time?

Probably not; they had Plan U to coup the Hungarian Parliament if they resisted the new monarch;

Care to please elaborate on the "Plan U" part?

last time the Magyar nobles got uppity they threatened to unleash the plan and they backed down immediately.

When exactly was that, though? In 1907? If so, then I would like to point out that, unlike in 1916-1917, Russia certainly wasn't ready for war back in 1907!

If they get too confident they'd find out that the Honved wouldn't save them.

Why rely on the Honved when they can rely on the Russian Army instead, though?

In fact that let's FF reform the Hungarian consititution and breaks the power of the Maygar nobles, which means many of the military funding problems go away and Hungary gets a lot more politically free to spend on building up their economy and working with Austria when the nobles weren't calling the shots and using the entire country as their playground (they leveed taxes on peasants that even in 1914 were required to be paid in unpaid labor working on projects the parliament wanted, which generally benefited the nobility. There is a reason there was a successful communist revolution in 1918).

Two questions:

1. Wouldn't this encourage the Hungarian nobles to try seceding? After all, if their power is going to be curtailed either way, then why not go down fighting?

2. Couldn't implementing universal suffrage in Hungary have resulted in some of the ethnic groups in Hungary (such as the Romanians) wanting more and depending independence from Hungary?

OK. However, what about if France and/or Russia insist on sparking a war with Germany at some future point in time? Indeed, couldn't this possibility compel you to try sparking a general European war sooner rather than later?

No, not with hindsight. Without hindsight sure, but we know that Britain was falling out with the Entente and wouldn't tolerate them starting the war so would probably come on Germany's side to stop them. Russian military build up scared Britain too, not just Germany.

Would Russia have actually cared much about British intervention on Germany's side in a large-scale European war if such a war would have broken out in, say, the 1930s or 1940s (rather than in the 1910s), though?

After all, wouldn't Russia have perceived itself as being an unstoppable behemoth and colossus by the 1930s or 1940s?

Also its unlikely France would accept a war of aggression from Russia, their alliance was defensive; Germany not starting a war likely means Russia goes it alone and it would not win that sort of war, especially with a hostile Britain against Russia and keeping France of Germany's back.

Was it Russia who first declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungary in 1914 in real life, though? Or was it the other way around?

Also, if Russia is perceived as being an unstoppable behemoth and colossus in the 1930s or 1940s (assume that World War I hasn't broken out before that point in time), then wouldn't it make more sense for France to "jump onto the Russian bandwagon" and to enter a general European war on Russia's side than for France to remain neutral in a large-scale European war? After all, wouldn't the belief (in the 1930s or 1940s in this scenario) be that Russia and France would be able to quickly overwhelm both Germany and Austria-Hungary using their overwhelming numerical advantage before Britain can recruit and send a large number of its own troops to Europe to help Germany and Austria-Hungary? If so, then wouldn't it be perceived to be in France's best interests to enter such a large-scale European war on Russia's side?

[Futurist]

Also, one additional important question: How exactly are you going to prevent Russia from eventually overshadowing Germany (both economically and militarily) in this scenario? After all, Russia already had a population which was 2.5+ times the size of Germany in 1914 and this disparity was only going to increase in the future due to Russia's larger population growth rate (in comparison to Germany, that is). Indeed, how exactly (other than by starting a war with Russia, that is) are you going to ensure that Russia isn't going to eventually overshadow Germany?

Any thoughts on this?

[Futurist]

*Immediately seek a limited rapprochement with France for the time being, with an eventual full rapprochement in France (which might very well include giving some or all of Alsace-Lorraine back to France) when the time for this will be appropriate (if ever, that is)

Indeed, would returning some/most/all of Alsace-Lorraine to France in exchange for better relations with France in this scenario make sense? After all, wouldn't France become much less willing to go to war with Germany if most or all of Alsace-Lorraine will already be under French rule?

[Tim Smith]

As Wilhelm II, after the Daily Telegraph Affair of 1908, I would become deeply depressed and commit suicide by shooting myself with a pistol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Telegraph_Affair

26-year old Crown Prince Wilhelm would become Kaiser Wilhelm III. His attitudes were something in between his grandfather, Frederick III, and his father, Wilhelm II. He had many American friends, indicating a friendlier and less arrogant personality than his father. But he was still a fervent German nationalist and looked forward to a war with Russia, and if necessary, France. However, he didn't share his father's obsession with building up the German Navy into an aggressive force to challenge British naval supremacy, so expansion would stop, and might even be reversed. He is more likely to favour defensive small ships like torpedo boats and submarines, rather than expensive dreadnaughts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm,_ ... own_Prince

An extract from a book he wrote in 1913:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/cro ... lm1913.htm

[T. A. Gardner]

While this might start a little earlier, I think one thing Wilhelm could have done was take overseas colonization seriously.

Starting in the 1870’s Germany began to have serious overseas colonial possessions. Rather than focusing on Europe Wilhelm sees there is great potential for Germany to build serious basing and industry overseas to supply the homeland as well as defend it against enemies. He begins building a fleet to challenge British and French sea power. This was something that happened anyway, but here the intent isn't so much as a direct challenge to the Royal Navy or French as for power projection worldwide. That means more cruisers and fewer battleships, more merchant shipping too.

In the Pacific and Asia, Tsingtao is pushed to rival Hong Kong as a port of trade. It is initially important because it can supply other Asian possessions with raw and finished materials. The Germans would industrialize the city and expand its borders as necessary to do it.

The German holdings in New Guinea and the Northern Solomon islands are seen as both a potential source of goods and as the beginnings of a major base of operations for a German Pacific Fleet. The natural harbor at Rabaul is chosen to be expanded into a naval base and military installation.
In their typical systematic fashion the Germans go about finding and cataloging natural resources in the area that can be exploited. For example, Narau becomes a goldmine for phosphates.

Wilhelm does something other colonial powers didn’t. He starts to put the means of production at those colonies in affect turning them into satellite states of Germany. To make this possible they also encourage immigration to them from Germany with things like “free” land and the like. At the time, Germans were immigrating to the US. Now they get an alternative that gives them land and retains their German citizenship.

The objective of this would be to create new German states in Africa and Asia to relieve population pressure in Europe and to build industrialized colonial holdings that can support Germany at home and provide a stable trade alternative to dealing with France, Britain, or the US, for example. It breaks Germany out of being nearly land locked in Europe.

[glenn239]

Anyone?

I am reminded of The Princess Bride list of classic blunders, “Never Start a land war in Asia”.

Also, one additional important question: How exactly are you going to prevent Russia from eventually overshadowing Germany (both economically and militarily) in this scenario?

Austria-Hungary and Germany combined are more than a match for Russia for the 50 year duration of your scenario plus another 100. So Germany should concentrate on the development of Central Europe, Scandinavia and the Balkans. Colonies are a waste of resources better spent investing in places like Austria and Hungary and Turkey.

Indeed, how exactly (other than by starting a war with Russia, that is) are you going to ensure that Russia isn't going to eventually overshadow Germany?

You’ve moved the goal posts. The mission started off as,

Your goal in this scenario is to try hard to pursue policies which will benefit Germany

Now it changed to keeping the Russians in their place.

Indeed, would returning some/most/all of Alsace-Lorraine to France in exchange for better relations with France in this scenario make sense? After all, wouldn't France become much less willing to go to war with Germany if most or all of Alsace-Lorraine will already be under French rule?

France went to war with Prussia pretty quickly and eagerly in 1870. Who owned Alsace and Lorraine at that time?

[Futurist]

As Wilhelm II, after the Daily Telegraph Affair of 1908, I would become deeply depressed and commit suicide by shooting myself with a pistol.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Telegraph_Affair

26-year old Crown Prince Wilhelm would become Kaiser Wilhelm III. His attitudes were something in between his grandfather, Frederick III, and his father, Wilhelm II. He had many American friends, indicating a friendlier and less arrogant personality than his father. But he was still a fervent German nationalist and looked forward to a war with Russia, and if necessary, France. However, he didn't share his father's obsession with building up the German Navy into an aggressive force to challenge British naval supremacy, so expansion would stop, and might even be reversed. He is more likely to favour defensive small ships like torpedo boats and submarines, rather than expensive dreadnaughts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm,_ ... own_Prince

An extract from a book he wrote in 1913:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/cro ... lm1913.htm

Couldn't 1908 already be too late for Germany to successfully reduce tensions with Britain by 1914, though?

[Tim Smith]

Couldn't 1908 already be too late for Germany to successfully reduce tensions with Britain by 1914, though?

Possibly, but what I'm thinking is, Germany makes a naval agreement with Britain in 1909, which agrees that the British fleet should always outnumber the German fleet by at least 2 to 1. Germany stops laying down new dreadnaughts and battlecruisers after 1909, limiting the German construction program to 8 dreadnoughts and 3 battlecruisers. Britain is not required to stop her own naval construction until after she has passed the 2 to 1 ratio.

By mid-1911, Britain will have laid down a total of 18 dreadnoughts and 6 battlecruisers. Once these are all completed (by late 1913), the German fleet will no longer be such a serious threat to Britain.

[BDV]

Your goal in this scenario is to try hard to pursue policies which will benefit Germany

Now it changed to keeping the Russians in their place.

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.