Hitler invades,Sweden,Switzerland,Spain & Portugal

[Ironmachine]

HOWEVER, if the Spanish Civil War had ended a year or two earlier? what are chances of Axis Spain?

Slightly better, but still not large. Spain was dependant on critical imports from the western hemisphere. Germany had little of substance to offer in replacement. There were a lot of nuances, like Francos attitude & internal politics, but the bottom line would still be the serious economic effects of losing acess to the New York and London banks, loss of hard cash in payment of exports, loss of grain & petroleum imports...

Yes, I agree with that. Internal conditions may have changed (some would have improved, some would have worsened), but overall the situation would not have improved enough to offset the external disadvantages that seem to have been Franco's main consideration.

[pugsville]

not advocating an invasion of any of the four countries mentioned except Switzerland,

Now how would that have helped the Germans?

I also diidn't see any goal!

If he didn't invade the UdSSR a focal point should be NA, Sicily and Malta, better Crete and Malta at one (same) day

Switzerland held as much gold as all other conquered countries combined and likely comparable amounts stashed by private entities.

(and remember the historical haul was over the course of the war)

could have funded a lot of their war effort and kept Soviets paid (with other than munitions.)

been chasing up some information on Gold reserves. the reserves were not always stored in the home country and a lot of european reserves were transferred to the US in early 1940,

league of nations statistical information of gold reserves
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0277aj.pdf

in order 1939 millions (hmm trouble with tis information unsure of millions of what? )

France 97 267
Romainia 20 768
Belgium 17 068
Italy 2 738
Czech 2 695
Swiss 2 262



general stuff and Nazis and gold reserves.
http://histclo.com/essay/war/ww2/eco/gold/w2e-gold.html

story n the guardian on czech godkl receivers
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... tolen-gold

[thaddeus_c]

not advocating an invasion of any of the four countries mentioned except Switzerland,

Switzerland held as much gold as all other conquered countries combined and likely comparable amounts stashed by private entities.

been chasing up some information on Gold reserves. the reserves were not always stored in the home country and a lot of european reserves were transferred to the US in early 1940,

league of nations statistical information of gold reserves
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0277aj.pdf

in order 1939 millions (hmm trouble with tis information unsure of millions of what? )

France 97 267
Romainia 20 768
Belgium 17 068
Italy 2 738
Czech 2 695
Swiss 2 262
[/quote]


thanks for the information, not sure if the point is that Swiss were well down list of countries in gold reserves?

my understanding came from forensic report done well after war on gold transactions thru Switzerland http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/snb_ ... jpr.en.pdf

all these reports move between tonnes/dollars/other currencies without warning and also use inflation adjusted figures (again without warning)

(there is pretty good summary here https://rwhiston.wordpress.com/2012/01/11/13/)

a figure of $600 - 800 million (U.S.) is used for amount of loot Germany acquired during the war, while Swiss held 3 billion (Swiss Francs) or $750m - $1.5b (U.S.) exchange rates vary wildly in sources.

AND the Nazi regime was a gangster regime so there would likely have been huge amounts of gold and other trinkets seized from individuals and companies as well during any robbery (invasion sorry.)

[Carl Schwamberger]

been chasing up some information on Gold reserves. the reserves were not always stored in the home country...

London as a century+ banking center had foreign deposits in some of its banks. The Bank of Internationl Settlements in Switzerland held deposits from participating nations. the purpose of these was to facilitate the routine balancing of monetary transfers between nations treasuries and banks.

and a lot of european reserves were transferred to the US in early 1940, ...

In march of 1940 Frence sent two shipments of gold bullion to a depository in Toronto Canada. This was to act as collateral for French credit in its expanding purchases in the US & eventual settlement of that credit. In June of 1940 a hefty part of the French gold reserves were aboard ship in Martinique. As I understand a plan to move this to the US for safe keeping was canceled by German demands in the armistice terms. The French seem to have moved the gold bullion to Dakar.

league of nations statistical information of gold reserves
http://digital.library.northwestern.edu ... 0277aj.pdf

in order 1939 millions (hmm trouble with tis information unsure of millions of what? )

Troy ounces as I understand. That had become the standard weight unit for gold & silver transactions.

[ThreadCutter]

So there is zero military benefit to controlling Gibraltar? I have a hard time taking that proposition seriously. With Gibraltar in Axis hands, all allied shipping has to go the long way, around Africa and through the Suez, and the entire North African campaign becomes much easier for the Axis. Not tom mention that the loss of Gibraltar, soon after the catastrophe in France, would put even greater pressure on the British to seek an armistice. Closing the straits of Gibraltar would make victory in North Africa much more likely, which could in turn lead into a German conquest of Iran, and then the German oil problem vanishes for the next ~200 years.

[pugsville]

So there is zero military benefit to controlling Gibraltar? I have a hard time taking that proposition seriously. With Gibraltar in Axis hands, all allied shipping has to go the long way, around Africa and through the Suez, and the entire North African campaign becomes much easier for the Axis. Not tom mention that the loss of Gibraltar, soon after the catastrophe in France, would put even greater pressure on the British to seek an armistice. Closing the straits of Gibraltar would make victory in North Africa much more likely, which could in turn lead into a German conquest of Iran, and then the German oil problem vanishes for the next ~200 years.

Almost ALL the British convoys went the long way around Africa anyway (aside from a copper of convoys like the tiger convoys and Malta resupply, it all went around Africa. Net effect on British shipping next to nothing. And what exactly doe it do to make the The African campaign easier for Axis in what why? The critical problems where port capacity and the sheer logistical limit of how far you could drive a truck in North Africa before it consumed it's load in fuel to drive the truck. The Fall of Gibraltar does nothing to fix either of these fundamental logistical problems.

And Even if the Germans captured Oil wells on the Persian gulf. How owl they get it back to Germany?

They lack any tanker capacity and had po-lenty of great bases to attack and sink any shipping, and the axis totally lack any escort capacity. Building the non existent railways would take years.

Logistics matter.

[Ironmachine]

So there is zero military benefit to controlling Gibraltar? I have a hard time taking that proposition seriously. With Gibraltar in Axis hands, all allied shipping has to go the long way, around Africa and through the Suez, and the entire North African campaign becomes much easier for the Axis. Not tom mention that the loss of Gibraltar, soon after the catastrophe in France, would put even greater pressure on the British to seek an armistice. Closing the straits of Gibraltar would make victory in North Africa much more likely, which could in turn lead into a German conquest of Iran, and then the German oil problem vanishes for the next ~200 years.

I totally agree with pugsville's answer to your post, but I will like to add a pair of points:
First, to conquer Gibraltar the Germans need the cooperation (or the control) of Spain, but as soon as they had it, they can close the Strait without even touching Gibraltar. In other words, as soon as the preconditions needed for an attack on Gibraltar are met, the (main) reasons for an attack on Gibraltar are no longer valid. So yes, in a literal meaning there is (almost) zero military benefit in controlling Gibraltar for the Germans.
Second, I'm a little skeptical about the moral effect that the loss of Gibraltar could have on the British, but it could (would?) have been followed quickly by the British conquest of the Canary Islands, and a victory showing the Germans could not reach beyond Continental Europe may have compensated for any moral loss due to the fall of Gibraltar.
As for Iran: "today Gibraltar, tomorrow Iran, the day after tomorrow the world". These things always look far easier on paper than they really are.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

Almost ALL the British convoys went the long way around Africa anyway (aside from a copper of convoys like the tiger convoys and Malta resupply, it all went around Africa. Net effect on British shipping next to nothing. ...

This is something some many people dont seem to grasp. The trans med sea route was effectively closed to Britain the minute the Italians declared war in June 1940. A very few blockade runners passed as a test, and some failed. The Tiger Convoy made it through, but the Italians learned the lessons & the Pedestal Convoy was a near massacre.

The route was reopened in May/June 1943 when the Brits started running convoys through the Scillian strait again. Axis efforts to interdict those were squashed by Allied air and naval power.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

And Even if the Germans captured Oil wells on the Persian gulf. How owl they get it back to Germany?

....

Why that ultra modern, high speed, double track railway from Adaban to Germany. With its paralle pipleline and high speed high capacity autobhan

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Von Schadewald and the community as a whole. Howdy V.S.! Well sir, in respect to your introductory posting of Saturday - December 03, 2016 - 1:30pm, old yours truly is of the layman's opinion that any overt attempt to conquer and subjugate the nation states of Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland would be an ideological nonstarter not just for National Socialist Germany, but also for the remainder of the nation states of Europe that are nominally sympathetic with the aims of National Socialist Germany. I, for one, cannot imagine the all knowing Bohemian Corporal alienating Benito Mussolini by interjecting himself into Il Duce's de facto geopolitical sphere of influence on the greater Iberian peninsula. After all, at least from a philosophical and theological perspective anyway, both Antonio de Oliveira Salazar of Portugal and Francisco Franco of Spain have much more in common with Benito Mussolini of Italy and by default, the Roman Catholic Church of Pope Pius XII. Now, as others have clearly pointed out, the Wehrmacht would also have that much more territory to defend in the WEST not to mention dealing with a protracted guerrilla war that would have no end. In addition, as others have also succinctly pointed out, both National Socialist Germany and Fascist Italy would lose the greater Iberian peninsula as a not so clandestine embargo breaking conduit to the remainder of the world. In short, why take the risk of losing what few friends that you have and the benefits they bring? Again, like the greater Iberian Peninsula, the Confederation Helvetica presents its own unique issues for a potentially expansionist National Socialist Germany. Once again, I cannot imagine the all knowing Bohemian Corporal going out of his way to alienate both Benito Mussolini of Fascist Italy and Pierre Laval of Vichy France over the status of Switzerland. National Socialist Germany, Fascist Italy and Vichy France ALL have overlapping ethnic and economic interests in Europe's de facto financial capitol. Again, the Wehrmacht would have to deal with yet another protracted guerrilla war that would have no end. Again, why take the risk of losing what few friends that you have and the benefits they bring? Now, there is the thorny matter of the Kingdom of Sweden. Once again, I cannot imagine the all knowing Bohemian Corporal going out of his way to alienate President Risto Ryti of Finland by marching into Finland's de facto ally of Sweden. As others have pointed out, why drive a clearly ANTI-SOVIET ALLY right into the loving arms of the Soviet Union? Finally, why upset the status quo with Sweden at all? The Kingdom of Sweden will happily collude with National Socialist Germany over its strategic mineral needs. After all, business is business, and the Wehrmacht does not need yet another country to garrison even though it might be a fertile ground for Waffen S.S. recruitment. Citizen Von Schadewald, you've really crashed and burned on this hypothetical scenario of yours! Well, that's my initial two cents or pfennigs worth on this wanting topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the ever fractious Balkans.

Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[Kingfish]

This is something some many people dont seem to grasp. The trans med sea route was effectively closed to Britain the minute the Italians declared war in June 1940. A very few blockade runners passed as a test, and some failed. The Tiger Convoy made it through, but the Italians learned the lessons & the Pedestal Convoy was a near massacre.

My understanding is it was the arrival of the Luftwaffe into the theater that closed the route, which didn't happen until early '41.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Regular cargo ship transits ceased with the Italian DoW. During 1940 there were a few efforts to transit the Sicilian Straits with a combination of war and cargo ships Operation HATS in October had two convoys of three transports each start from Alexandria and Gibraltar to Malta. The Italian surface fleet was at sea & failed to intercept.

The effort in November was part of the larger Operation COLLAR. Primarily a movement of warships in the Med, including some from Alexandria to Gibraltar. Three cargo ships went under escort from Gibraltar to Malta & then east. Italian efforts to ambush the Gibraltar to Malta operation with submarines failed. There was a desultory skirmish between the surface fleets.

Operation COAT with reinforcements for Malta from Gibraltar had reinforcements aboard warships. This was concurrent with with Op JUDGEMENT, the attack on the fleet at Taranto, and several other cargo delivery ops to Greece originating in Alexandria.

The last in December ran a small convoy MG1 of two cargo ships through the straits. Clan Forbes and Clan Fraser safely reached Gibraltar. As far as I can tell thats all the cargo carrier & warship transit through the Sicilian Strait in 1940. In both cases the op was run in conjunction with transits between Malta and the Eastern Med ports.

At this point I see eight cargo ships & two cruisers as troop transports transiting the western Med & Sicilian straits. I don't have any data to compare for six months of transit for previous years. Have seen claims the cargo transit for the latter half of 1940, including on warships, represents less than 5% of British cargo on that route prewar. That seems low, but Eight heavily escorted cargo ships in six months in terms of gross requirements looks insignificant.

[maltesefalcon]

Sweden, Switzerland and Spain were non-belligerants at least in theory. In practice they were already quasi-friendly to Axis interests as long as things were going Hitler's way. On that basis there was little benefit to gaining three more enemy nations.

Spain sat in the bush for the duration, but if push came to shove; they were a Fascist nation beholden to Hitler for the current regime's rise to power. Although weak by comparison to the Wehrmacht; it was better to have the Spanish army as a threat to Allied interests than weaken both the German and Spanish forces by fighting each other. So...why do it?

Portugal was harder to predict. Assuming Spain was fairly easily conquered, then Portugal would be in a tight spot unless the Allies intervened. On the mainland, that would be unlikely in the short term. However the Anglo-Americans would likely keep their options option with the Azores, which would provide either side with useful naval/air bases.

Germany may have a hard time supplying and supporting an invasion force solely over the Pyrenees. The rail and road routes would be plum targets for sabotage and guerrillas. In fact the very term guerilla was coined during Napoleons time in the Peninsula in the previous century. That means probable naval committment and air supply as well.

Switzerland was useful for more than banking. Its embassies allowed even enemy powers to communcate if so desired. The nation would eventually be completely surrounded by the Axis, so they weren't going anywhere. Hitler could wait until the war was successfully concluded before committing to another "Anschluss".

The Swedish question is harder. They were certainly no pushovers. For sure Hitler would need a strong naval presence to ensure success there. Did they have the resources to do so?

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Von Schadewald and the community as a whole. Howdy V.S.! Well sir, in continuing reference to your introductory posting of Monday - December 03, 2016 - 3:33pm, old yours truly is of the layman's opinion that you achieved an unforeseen outcome that is rarely seen within the disparate ranks of the forum's broad WHAT IF constituency. From what I've reviewed so far, there appears to be little or no enthusiasm for your suggested Hitlerian gambits in the nation states of Confederation Helvetica, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. To see such topical UNANIMITY is quite refreshing indeed! If the spirit should ever move you, it might be entertaining to see a topical SEQUEL to this thought provoking creation of yours. You might consider gambits where HITLER INVADES ANDORRA, LIECHTENSTEIN, MONACO, SAN MARINO AND THE VATICAN. Well, why not!? After all, the all knowing Bohemian Corporal thought it was in the national security interests of the Fatherland to extinguish the "THREAT" that was the GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG. It's just some friendly for thought. Popcorn anyone? Well, that's my latest two cents or pfennigs worth on this topic that is worthy of parody - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of the ever fractious Balkans.

Best Regards From The DUCHY OF GRAND FENWICK,
Uncle Bob