Dutch join the Axis, war over in 1940?

[thaddeus_c]

what if a faction aided Germany? (meaning non-lethal against their fellow Dutch, disabling telephone and/or aircraft? etc.) could they have possibly gotten a better scenario than historically?

a Dutch State? that includes Flanders or more? at least a facsimile of legitimate government that can press claim for colonies.

[Graniterail]

Suriname had the Bauxite mines America needed for their aircraft factories. There was no way they were giving up that.

Well the neutral US wouldn't have issues with continued sales of Dutch bauxite and politically they aren't in a position to grab a belligerent's territory.

There was plenty of "way." The US might well instigate local factions to declare independence from Holland and the US then backs them as a new "independent" nation. Can you say "Panama?" How about "Hawaii?"

I think a quote tag might have gotten mixed up in the very reply I'm replying too, uh I'll just quote it as is.

I doubt the U.S would wait to mess around with insitigating rebels or funding opponents to occupy Suriname for the same reason the French and British didn't wait to occupy Curaco & Aruba - they couldn't risk the facilities being tampered with. It sounds like paranoia, but recall that there was concern about German minorities living in Latin America, concern about Lufthansa operating transport planes with built in bomb racks in range of the Panama Canal.

[Carl Schwamberger]

The US and London both have enormous leverage to deal with a Axis Netherlands & its overseas colonies. Through freezing finanical assists, trade embargoes, preventing non Japanese flagged cargo ships from carrying Japanese goods, the US and London were able to bring Japan close to economic destruction.

The Japanese occupation of French Indo China compounded the 'unease' (borderline panic) in the US started by the collapse of France. It badly undercut the foundation of the isolationist factions & shifted more support to the ramped up military spending & mobilization started with the War Powers Acts of 1940. If Japanese warships are in the DEI ports guarding the disembarkation of IJA battalions the shift to the war hawks position in the US will accelerate. The Brits will be forced to take rapid action vis Sumatra as that directly threatens Singapore. It has profound implications for changes in Britains strategy & global deployments. If this Japanese action occurs in the autumn of 1940, before or concurrent with the occupation of Haiphong port then everything is changed in terms of where Britain or the Commonwealth deploy their forces for the remainder of 1940.

I'd not be surprised if this event led to the start of a Anglo/US war with Japan by the spring of 1941, or earlier.

[thaddeus_c]

The US and London both have enormous leverage to deal with a Axis Netherlands & its overseas colonies. Through freezing finanical assists, trade embargoes, preventing non Japanese flagged cargo ships from carrying Japanese goods, the US and London were able to bring Japan close to economic destruction.

The Japanese occupation of French Indo China compounded the 'unease' (borderline panic) in the US started by the collapse of France. It badly undercut the foundation of the isolationist factions & shifted more support to the ramped up military spending & mobilization started with the War Powers Acts of 1940. If Japanese warships are in the DEI ports guarding the disembarkation of IJA battalions the shift to the war hawks position in the US will accelerate. The Brits will be forced to take rapid action vis Sumatra as that directly threatens Singapore. It has profound implications for changes in Britains strategy & global deployments. If this Japanese action occurs in the autumn of 1940, before or concurrent with the occupation of Haiphong port then everything is changed in terms of where Britain or the Commonwealth deploy their forces for the remainder of 1940.

I'd not be surprised if this event led to the start of a Anglo/US war with Japan by the spring of 1941, or earlier.

how would it have scrambled things if Germany reverting to supporting China? don't recall when the last advisors left?

or at least pressed Japan to not enter Indochina or DEI.

[Sid Guttridge]

Nazi Germany regarded the Dutch as Deutsch. (The two words have identical roots).

The Nazis therefore sent the same administrative team to the Netherlands as had overseen the Anschluss with Austria.

Joining the Axis therefore probably would have resulted in Anschluss with the Reich and the extinction of the distinct Dutch national identity, as almost happened to the Austrians of "Ostmark".

Cheers,

Sid.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
how would it have scrambled things if Germany reverting to supporting China? don't recall when the last advisors left?

Late 1937 IIRC. Some anti nazi Germans may have stayed on. There were a few old Russians knocking about the edges of the KMT as well.

... or at least pressed Japan to not enter Indochina or DEI.

Hitler did bless the Indochina occupation. The Armistice with France required resistance to any foreign entry into French colonies. Petains government was told that section no longer applied to Indochina & the French were not to resist Japanese entry.

[thaddeus_c]

how would it have scrambled things if Germany reverting to supporting China?
... or at least pressed Japan to not enter Indochina or DEI.

Hitler did bless the Indochina occupation. The Armistice with France required resistance to any foreign entry into French colonies. Petains government was told that section no longer applied to Indochina & the French were not to resist Japanese entry.

not sure the chances but What If Germans decided to maintain collaboration with French over Japanese, maybe they see real chance to employ their fleet against Allies, really Great Britain at that point, or simply to ensure their own access to French colonial holdings worldwide?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Hmmm... seen this or similar questions many times before. How capable is the French fleet for global or regional naval warfare outside the Mediteranean? Also... can the Axis fuel their fleet, the Italian fleet, and the French fleet adaquately?

[Sid Guttridge]

Hi Carl,

The French had colonies on ever continent, so I would imagine they had the base capacity for regional warfare. Their Indio-China squadron successfully beat the Thais at Ko Chang and fended off the British from Dakar.

I also seem to recall that their two latest battleships had greater operational ranges the Scharnhorst and Gneisenau.

Cheers,

Sid.

[nuyt]

Goodday all,

I do not think a scenario in which the Dutch govt secretly joins the Axis is possible. Holland was a democratic country and such a huge change of tack from neutrality would need enormous backing from political, business and military circles. Impossible to cover up even if agreement is reached.
I would suggest a different scenario in which Holland remains neutral in the same sense as Sweden, Spain and Portugal: trading with Germany in return for defensive weaponry.

So in this case Holland would negotiate a deal with Germany in spring 1940, where Germany would guarantee territorial sovereignty of the NL and its colonies. In a far reaching economic agreement Dutch industries gain access to the German market (including an arrangement for the exchange rate, a big problem) and German industries place huge orders in the NL for non-military goods. The Netherlands receive all the weaponry they need to defend their airspace, coast and colonies: 30 batteries of 88 mm AA guns to be placed along the coast, some heavy coastal guns to keep the Royal Navy at bay and one or two squadrons worth of ME 109 fighters). No troops, just some advisers and trainers from the Luftwaffe, all observed by declared British spies. This way the Dutch guarantee that the Allies can not use Dutch airspace (or land) for attacks on Germany (such a plan was floated in German military circles IRL). The Dutch also get German, Austrian and former Czechoslovak weaponry for the Indies that was on order and get additional steel and other materials to continue their naval building program (battlecruisers, cruisers, destroyers, naval and coastal artillery, submarines, etc.).

The Dutch then move on to strike a similar deal with Japan, opening up the Indies for huge Japanese investments (as the Japanese tried to negotiate in vain) in mining, oil and agriculture. But no military presence. The Japanese trade the Dutch captured Chinese weaponry of European makes, like Krupp, Rheinmetall, Bofors and Vickers, that all match the existing Dutch inventory. The Dutch send some 20.000 volunteers to join the colonial army, mostly from far right backgrounds (the same guys that would sign up IRL for the Eastern Front). The Indies are better defended by 1941. By 1942 brand new battlecruiser Java arrives, as does the Zeven Provincien cruiser, while dozens of submarines lurk among the thousand islands.

The Japanese are getting all they need from the Indies, including a steady stream of oil. They do not control it, but it is enough to prevent war in 1941/42.

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

The Dutch then move on to strike a similar deal with Japan, opening up the Indies for huge Japanese investments (as the Japanese tried to negotiate in vain) in mining, oil and agriculture. But no military presence. The Japanese trade the Dutch captured Chinese weaponry of European makes, like Krupp, Rheinmetall, Bofors and Vickers, that all match the existing Dutch inventory. The Dutch send some 20.000 volunteers to join the colonial army, mostly from far right backgrounds (the same guys that would sign up IRL for the Eastern Front). The Indies are better defended by 1941. By 1942 brand new battlecruiser Java arrives, as does the Zeven Provincien cruiser, while dozens of submarines lurk among the thousand islands.

The Japanese are getting all they need from the Indies, including a steady stream of oil. They do not control it, but it is enough to prevent war in 1941/42.

There are a couple problems the Japanese & Dutch need to get around here. The largest is the Japanese were increasingly dependent on credit from US banks. While their empire showed a positive cash flow on the business side, the war in China and general military up keep led to using credit from the US to keep the cash flowing. When the Embargo Acts froze Japans bank accounts in the US it left Japans business without sufficient cash flow for 'investment'. The Dutch lacked large cash reserves as well. They had some but not large. & like everyone else they were dependent on Londons & New Yorks financial services ie: For Maritime insurance Britain was the best game in town. Underwriters could in theory be found elsewhere, but with more restrictions, larger costs, and a unwillingness or inability to risk losses the large pool of British underwriters could.

Contrast the Japanese as a customer to the US. Cash or low risk credit, vs higher cost credit & extended payments for Bauxite? Same for Tin? It was a similar situation with the oil. Brian and US backed buyers could pay better than the Japanese could afford. its like the Iberian Wolfram/Tungsten ore. Germany & Italy could buy it, but they were paying prices Britan and the US bid up to painful levels for the Axis.

[Carl Schwamberger]

Now I'm wondering how effective a Brit sponsored 'Free Netherlands' government will be? Be Ironic if the DEI broke away from the home government & aligned with the Brits out of unwillingness to deal with a aggressive Japanese policy.

[nuyt]

Regarding finance and insurance: Good points, but I think Koninklijke Olie and the Bataafsche Petroleum Maatschappij would know their way around this, after all they were dealing with everybody already...but I think it would be also political. Not he best kind of deal, but since barter was the rigeur in those days in some cases (like trade with Germany), governments would bear some risk as well.

DEI breaking away and joining UK alliance: not a chance, the Dutch there were a very conservative bunch, many supporting the NSB (which was financed by its Indies members). Main party of the colonials was the Vaderlandsche Club (what's in a name), politically aligned in the motherland with a far right fringe party led by ret. General Snijders. Mood was also a tad anti-British, I daresay. And the idea was that the Dutch would heavily arm and reinforce themselves in the DEI, while the Japanese only gained economic access. No doubt a lot of colonials would do business with them. So security hand in hand with business opportunities, who does not want that?

[pugsville]

A question was raised on another forum about how the Dutch could do better in WW2 and rather cheekily one answer was to join the Axis because they'd avoid the damage and harshness of the occupation, be able to protect their Jewish population for a while like the Danish did, and potentially end the war in 1940.

Would that actually be the case? Would the Dutch pre-arranging a German pass through and allowing them to base aircraft and troops in their country on the morning of the start of the invasion of France/Belgium actually have led to a worse, more rapid defeat of the Allies, including the BEF being wiped out before Dunkirk could happen (due to the Germans not wasting time/men/aircraft and paratroopers in the Netherlands), have led to Halifax winning the Cabinet Crisis of May and the British asking for terms and the war then ending in June/July? That would be before the Allies could launch and operation against the DEI, so there would be little potential threat to the colonies with so sudden and surprising a defection. So would it actually result (or at least more likely than not have resulted) in an end to the war in 1940 if the Dutch for some reason opted to de facto join the Axis by letting the Germans just pass through their country and base air units there?

As an aside, if pre-arranged that the Dutch would just let the Germans pass through, how would the Germans use their paratroopers instead? Drop on Antwerp?

Well the Allies do not go with the revised Dyle plan, have a good mobile reserve. The German sickle cut could possible be cut off or opposed in enough strength to stop it. and the defeat of France takes much longer than it did historically.

The stretching of the revised Dyle plant that had the best and most mobile allied units pressing on to Holland, denied the Allies their mobile reserve and lead to the best units being deeper in the bag when cutoff by the Germans thrust through the Ardennes.

Conceivably the Allies are much better off.

[Carl Schwamberger]

As an aside, if pre-arranged that the Dutch would just let the Germans pass through, how would the Germans use their paratroopers instead? Drop on Antwerp?

My first thought, but I've not actually thought it through.

Well the Allies do not go with the revised Dyle plan, have a good mobile reserve. The German sickle cut could possible be cut off or opposed in enough strength to stop it. and the defeat of France takes much longer than it did historically.

The stretching of the revised Dyle plant that had the best and most mobile allied units pressing on to Holland, denied the Allies their mobile reserve and lead to the best units being deeper in the bag when cutoff by the Germans thrust through the Ardennes.

The 7th Armies mission was based on that the Belgians could not defend the overland connection to the Dutch, Scheldt estuary or approaches to Antwerp. Which as it turned out they couldn't. Corps of the 7th Army were left north to reinforce the weak & overstretched Belgian corps. Only the mobile corps of one DLM & one motorized inf div was returned south to the 1st Army. If the Dutch failed, or capitulated the Allies would risk losing the ability to use a important port, & conceivably have a German army debouching into their rear via Antwerp.

If the French have any warning of Dutch capitulation its possibley Gamelin would order up the Escaut Plan & leave the Belgians on their own.