Korean War scenarios

[Von Schadewald]

1. If the South quickly collapses and the North conquers all of it by August 1950, how would the US react, if at all?

2. If the North quickly collapses after Incheon, and the South and the Americans conquers all of the North by October 1950, how would China and the USSR react, if at all?

[Kingfish]

In terms of a NK collapse I'm not seeing much of a deviation from the historical.
By late October the UN forces were already near the Sino-Korean border.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both citizen Von Schadewald and the community as a whole. Howdy V.S.! Well sir, in light of your introductory posting of Sunday - April 30, 2017 - 9:35am, old yours truly is of the layman's opinion that the Truman administration, through the continuing behest of the United Nations Organization of course, will not blithely accept the destruction of the fledgling Republic of Korea along with the diminutive American Expeditionary Force sent to bolster it during the summer of year 1950. The total loss of the Republic of Korea at the hands of Kim Il Sung would be THE final act that would push the patience of the United States of America beyond the breaking point. Prior to year 1950, the minions of the Third International were quite content to organize clandestine insurgencies and not so clandestine usurpations to advance the ideological goals of Marxism-Leninism in general and the geopolitical aims of Joseph Stalin in particular. Between year 1945 and year 1950, there was the insurgency in Greece that was quelled by Great Britain. There was the overt takeover of Czechoslovakia and the subsequent establishment of the infamous Iron Curtain. There was the Berlin blockade and its subsequent airlift. There was the insurgency in Malaya that was also quelled by Great Britain. There was the ongoing insurgency in Indochina that France would eventually lose. The United States of America would interject itself into the now independent Republic of the Philippines to quell the Hukbalahop insurgency. There would be THE crown jewel of success with the victory of the Communists over the Nationalists during the Chinese Civil War. Finally, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics would detonate its first atomic bomb in year 1949 with the subsequent arrest of Ethel and Julius Rosenberg for the crime of passing secret nuclear weapons information to the Soviet Union in year 1950. Now, you have the OVERT conventional invasion of the subsequent conquest of the Republic of Korea in year 1950. In time, the Truman administration would mobilize its substantive resources and mount an amphibious landing that would dwarf the Second World War's Operation Overlord in year 1952. The overall commander for the counteroffensive would fall to the person of Omar Bradley. The Truman administration would also authorize the hot pursuit and destruction of any aircraft using either China or the Soviet Union as a sanctuary. Finally, the Truman administration would take a leap into the great unknown by granting carte blanche for the discretionary use of nuclear weapons by its field commanders. I'll leave the march to the Yalu River on the border of Manchuria for a future installment. Well, that's my initial two cents worth on this quite controversial topic into the hypothetical - for now anyway. As always, I would like to bid you a copacetic day over in your corner of the ever fractious Balkans.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[South]

Good afternoon all,

Puncture the Seoul, South Korean balloon and the tear is also occurring in Okinawa and an augmenting cold sweat in the torn Taiwan/Formosa.

Now recall that the US had already accepted the military occupation of South Korea even though the US withdrew its troops in early 1949. This was concurrent with no peace treaty with Japan.

Now remember that Washington, D.C. already made the decision to retain US forces in Japan...includes Okinawa... indefinitely.

With names such as John Foster Dullas and Dean Acheson, SCAP was enroute to get a fighting assignment.

No"What ifs"; the US had a foreign policy to maintain a presence in the WestPac.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother South and the community as a whole. Howdy Bob! Well sir, in respect to your installment of Tuesday - May 22, 2018 - 11:37am, old yours truly must grimly concur with your resolute sentiments. With the Truman administration's unambiguous decision to clearly draw a figurative line in the sand over the Korean peninsula, there would be little doubt over the United States of America's reaffirmation to maintain its geopolitical presence in the Western Pacific. Fortunately, neither the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics nor the fledgling Peoples Republic of China retained the necessary aerial and naval assets to prevent the United States of America from doing so. In light of the catastrophe on the Korean peninsula in year 1950, it would be fortuitous indeed that the planners of foreign policy in the District of Columbia had the strategic forethought to not only maintain a healthy military presence in neighboring Japan, but also to initiate those domestic reforms vitally required to resurrect the war ravaged Japanese industrial base. The forward basing of American military power on Japanese soil supported by the reinstitution of Japanese industry would be essential for the Herculean effort to retake the entire Korean peninsula during year 1952. General Douglas MacArthur would continue in his benevolent role as the de facto viceroy of Japan while General Omar Bradley would assume overall command of the gargantuan United Nations Expeditionary Force now marshalling across the length and breadth of the Japanese archipelago. In the distant United States of America, Dwight Eisenhower would be contemplating his political future. Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this expansive hypothetical topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in the Old Dominion that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.


Best Regards,
Uncle Bob

[Globalization41]

Without U.S. intervention, North Korea would have quietly liquidated all suspected political opposition using ISIS-like tactics. Without Chinese intervention during MacArthur's expedition, the North Korean government could have collapsed, leaving the South Koreans to liquidate communist political opposition. Nukes were not needed without Chinese intervention. MacArthur overextended his forces. There was no way out except retreat or nukes. … South Korea was just a small non-communist beachhead on the vast Asian mainland. … America saved the Soviet Union during WWII, and Stalin stabbed the U.S. in the back. Truman finally & fully realized America had been double-crossed with the fall of China, the Berlin blockade, insurgencies seemingly everywhere, the invasion of South Korea, etc. The U.S.S.R. could not have defeated Germany in WWII without U.S. help. Stalin would have fed his troops into the meat grinder without winning. … Stalin could have made Russia rich just be being friendly with Truman. Vietnam could have been rich by being friendly to Johnson. Later, China became rich by being friendly to Clinton.

Globalization41.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother Globalization41 and the community as a whole. Howdy G41! Well sir, in respect to your posting of Tuesday - July 31, 2018 - 9:22am, like yourself, I must reluctantly concur that Soviet Union's duplicitous behavior during the course of the Chinese Civil War was tantamount to a figurative stab in the back of the United States of America. That duplicitous behavior had its overt beginnings during the phased withdrawal of the Soviet Army from Manchuria between November of year 1945 and April of year 1946. Apart from physically turning all of Manchuria over to Mao Zedong and his Communist Peoples Liberation Army, the now vacating Soviet Army also turned over ALL of the assorted ordnance and equipment that they themselves had captured from the now defeated Japanese Army during their great Far East offensive of August of year 1945. In addition, a great deal of Soviet ordnance and equipment was ALSO turned over to the Peoples Liberation Army as the Soviet Army extricated itself from Manchuria. Yes, the "double cross" had begun long before the ignominious defeat of Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalist Army in October of year 1949. This, of course, would have dire consequences for the forces of the United Nations as they stood on the Yalu River which borders China and Korea literally one year later. On an incidental note, the byzantine weltanschauung of Joseph Stalin might best be characterized with the adage of THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS STILL MY ENEMY. Contrary to popular urban myth and legend, prior to the events that transpired between June 22, 1941 and September 02, 1945, the Soviet Union ostensibly considered the United States of America as ITS principal ideological ENEMY. That animosity had its origins with the Anglo-American intervention within the Russian Civil War between year 1918 and year 1921. The intervention of what would ultimately known as THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR OF THE SOVIET UNION just simply postponed Joseph Stalin's long standing ideological war with the United States of America. Yes, Joseph Stalin could not hope to defeat Adolf Hitler by himself and Franklin Roosevelt could not hope to defeat Adolf Hitler by himself. Politics certainly does make for both interesting bedfellows and ersatz "marriages of convenience". I'll leave the United States of America's incremental march into Southeast Asia for another day and a wholly different topical thread. Well, that's my latest two cents worth on this expansive topic of interest - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of what was once our Golden State of California.

Best Regards From The Greater San Francisco Bay Area,
Uncle Bob

[Globalization41]

Hey Uncle Bob. There seems to be a lot of historical roads leading to the Korean War. The Vietnam War, North vs. South, Demilitarized Zone, A-bombs, Stalin, Stalin's death, Eisenhower, jet fighter-bombers, helicopters, the Cold War, China, Mao, Cambodia, Japan, Pacific Mandates after WWI, the economics of the defense industry, etc. All that should be part of the Korean War thread. No need to start a new thread.

Globalization41.

Post #6, first sentence should read: Without U.S. intervention, North Korea would have quickly liquidated all suspected political opposition using ISIS-like tactics.

[Robert Rojas]

Greetings to both brother Globalization41 and the community as a whole. Howdy G41! Well sir, in light of your posting of Monday - August 06, 2018 - 6:10pm, old Uncle Bob would like to convey my appreciation for both your technical observations and expressed concerns. And yes, there is most certainly a vertible Interstate Highway leading to the Korean War. Generally speaking, since this thread was the creation of citizen Von Schadewald on Sunday - April 30, 2017 - 9:35am, old yours truly was attempting to make a reasonable effort to restrict my contributions within the very narrow parameters established by his two stated scenarios. I try to make it a habit of NOT attracting the undue attention of "management" by going too far afield with off topic tangents - AS FUN AS THEY MIGHT BE! Now, with that said, I will be more than game to engage in any manner of peripheral POST 1945 discussion OR discussions until we are directed otherwise by the forum's erstwhile Committee For Public Vigilance. Sound like a plan!? Well, that's my latest two cents worth on what is sometimes called America's Forgotten War - for now anyway. In any case, I would like to bid you an especially copacetic day over in your corner of what was once our Golden State of California.

Best Regards From The Greater San Francisco Bay Area,
Uncle Bob

[South]

Good morning Globalization 41,

Ref the 1 Aug post; There are some other interpretations.

Did MacArthur "overextend" his forces or FORCE an issue onto Washington, D.C. ?

South Korea was not in the same category as the rest of the peripheral states next to China, eg like Sikkim. That Korean peninsula was still the dagger (Beretta made the best) positioned against Japan.

True, without Stalin's US alliance, the USSR east to, at least to Irkurst, would write with umlatts.

The fall of China was predicted, forecast, all all else prior to Marco Bridge. General Stilwell's megaphone, correspondence and diary clearly establish this. FDR made trade-offs and fired Vinegar Joe Stilwell.

The Berlin blockade was more a miscalculation than a double-cross. Geopolitics and international economics collided. The March 1948 Six-Power London Conference recommended that the US,UK and France take their German sectors and form a provisional government. The USSR contested this as a violation of the Potsdam Protocol requiring a united Germany. Now the messy part: The Western powers were negotiating to introduce a single currency for use through out occupied Germany. It gets messier; Washington sought to keep the Soviets out of the currency "reform" matter and by extension, keep the Soviets out of the reconstruction of Germany. Soviet General Sokolovsky ran the Soviet occupation zone and was the rep to the currency reform conferences. US General Clay notified him that that the Western powers were going ahead with the currency reform. Omitting much, the Soviets ran their own reform program with the old reichmarks the ostmark. Clay provoked the Soviets by introducing the new DMs into Berlin's western sector(s). The Soviet response to this was the 24 June blockade. I'm writing all this as neutral as I can.

Yes, insurgencies all over the place.

Stalin could NEVER make the USSR rich. Without market economics...how do you deal in the international business arena ? Think of the introduction of the US FEMA flood insurance program and its refutation of market economics. Think of welfare programs.

Vietnam:: Ditto the Soviet problem without the advanced society of European Soviet areas.

Ref 6 August; All these historical roads leading to Korea are products of EUROPE ! Uncle Bob introduced this in the Cold War / Korea thread.

Don't neglect Sarkarno's Indonesia !


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[South]

Good morning Globe and all,

I'm retracting my above statement that the USSR could not maintain its territorial integrity east to Irkurst without US assistance.

After 2 espressos and some thinking and reevaluations, I think I was wrong in my transmission of 01:33.

They could.

Don't want to elaborate here because it drifts just too far off of the TSR railroad tracks.


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA

[Globalization41]

Hey Bob. I looked up currency and Berlin in 1948 and found an article that gives some of the fundamentals. It went something like, Stalin agreed to a four-power commission controlling Soviet currency in Berlin. The Soviet governor of East Berlin later rescinded Stalin's agreement. The Allies then tried to complain to Stalin, but he was unavailable and out of town.

10/2/1948, Soviet Governor of Berlin Marshal Socolovsky Rescinds Allied Currency Agreement with Stalin; Stalin Unavailable

Globalization41.

[South]

Good afternoon Globalization 41,

Globe, I did use both the words "messy" and "messier".

There was much more to the matter of the European landmass and the German zones + Berlin's, that an article or a book or multiply by 100, to explain the economic warfare and tangents.

There's got to be something missing about a Soviet Governor - anywhere - in 1948 - abrogating an agreement by Stalin. Would not the Governor get reassigned to the People's New Improved autonomous region just north of the New Siberian Islands ?


~ Bob
eastern Virginia, USA